Temperature Roller Coaster Upcoming

From high temperatures in the upper 30's and low 40's this past week to highs in the upper 60's today and tomorrow, we are in the midst of a weather roller coaster. What goes up, must come down, and we will be facing temperatures plummeting on Tuesday. Towards the middle of the week, temperatures will come up a little, before falling again late next weekend. There are no chances of snow in the coming week, so buckle up and enjoy the ride!

Over performing inverted trough

The storm that battered the coast is now providing another surprise. The disturbance I talked about yesterday coming out of the Great Lakes Has actually brought the coastal storm back towards the coast. As a result snow spread through the areas last night and it's continued on today. The radar still looking good for a couple hours more of snow. The National Weather Service has extended further south winter weather advisories for 3 to 6 inches of snow. Reports from Monmouth County New Jersey already show around 5 inches of snow. I would not be surprised to possibly see a winter pstorm warning issued for those areas

Friday 2/15/2013 Morning Update

For tonight, expect a possible period of rain showers, snow showers and possible a little light snow to develop. This will not last long and will be out by the morning. Tomorrow, models have trended away from the idea of a coastal storm, so as of now, may be time to cancel the idea of a snowfall for this weekend. Models are keeping this storm pretty far off shore. It will really strengthen once it is beyond us. Eastern New England may get some effects of it, but we should be clear.

If anything changes on it, I will drop a note on here to let you know. 

Recap And The Weekend Ahead

Surface temperatures yesterday during the day really hampered our efforts to get a good accumulating snow. Even when the snow rates increased, it was tough to accumulate due to the surface warmth and the water that had already accumulated on the ground. If we have had that snow a week ago when our highs were in the 20's, we would have had a nice little event. Anyways, time to move on.

I wrote earlier this week about the potential for a storm this weekend. It was being shown on the models a couple days ago, and then went away. Well, the idea of a weekend storm are back. The noon time runs today are showing the potential to be there for our area into the Northeast. These periods of time when multiple storms are showing up on models, it becomes difficult for them to key in on each one. This is one of the reasons why I have felt that it was possible for this weekend, because the positioning of a lot of other elements are present. Sometimes it just takes one storm to conclude before models pick up on the other pieces of energy. 

A quick look at the midday model runs has the GFS showing a very nice coastal storm taking shape of the coast in the southeast moving up the coast (moderate storm). The NAM is similar (although not totally honed in yet) and the Canadian model also shows an event like the NAM. The Euro just came out, and has an event, but much lighter. I have not looked at surface temps on each preceding them, but tomorrow is supposed to be warm. In addition, a arctic trough will be settling in just before or concurrent for the storm. Things may get interesting. 

I will have more to come over the day and a more detailed post tonight. Just be prepared that a significant storm can potentially come to fruition within a couple days. 

Happy Valentines Day to everyone! 

Wednesday 2/13/2013 Morning Update

Look for precipitation to break out around 7pm. Surface temperatures today will be quite warm, so that is going to limit the amount that accumulates on paved surfaces. This will be more of a nuisance event, especially since there will be little accumulation on pavement. Precipitation moves out around midnight, so its a quick hitter. General accumulations from 2-4" across the area, mostly on grassy surfaces. Once you get north and west of Route 80, precipitation really cuts down. 

Still keeping an eye on the weekend, as the potential is still there. Nothing of substance is really showing up, but it will be monitored. 

Tuesday 2/12/2013 Morning Update

Increasingly more confident of measurable snows moving into the area for Wednesday Night into Thursday. Over the past 24 hours, models have kept the measurable precipitation SOUTH of areas just bombarded (CT, NYC etc). For those areas a coating to 1" can be expected. From NYC South to Trenton 1-2" looks good. From the Trenton area south towards Philly 2-4" is my call, and areas south of that, while seeing more precipitation, you will have serious surface temperature issues preventing a lot of accumulation 1-3" down there. In any case, this looks to be a quick hitter. precipitation moves in between 6pm and 8pm and is out by 7am.

For the weekend there still remains a lot of questions. Most major models are not showing anything resembling a monster storm. The UKMET is probably the closest, but for now remaining cautiously optimistic about the event. More to come on this.

Roller Coaster Week Setting Up

This upcoming week is shaping up to be a real roller coaster. Low temperatures this morning were very low. These low temperatures were helped by the fresh snowpack. Before delving into this week, lets recap the past storm. What a complex setup we had. One of the hardest things to do is look at the backlash snows you get on the wraparound (west side). This is tremendously hard to forecast and is your highest "bust" potential for any storm. Overall, I thought the models did a rather good job with the handling of the storm (although the NAM was amped over our area, it had a decent projection). By far, the EURO model was the model of choice with this storm. It was the first to see it, and remained very consistent. One thing that cannot be modeled is some of the mesoscale banding that occurs (areas of enhanced precipitation often times looking like a line of increased precip on radars). This was the driving factor that CT was the winner in the amount stakes. There was a band that was producing 4-6"/hr and thundersnow for an extended period of time in south central CT. Some of the pictures I saw from the inlaws and others in the area were VERY impressive. We may never see anything again like that, that is how rare that was. Many places received 24" in as little as 8-12 hours. For our area, we were hit with the backside of the storm which filled in nicely once the phase occured. There was quite a  sharp cutoff in precipitation.

For this week, we have a cold front moving through Monday. Prior to that, there is a low pressure heading into the Great Lakes (never a good sign to be on the east side, warm). It will bring us rain during the day on Monday. Front moves through and we head back towards normal for Tuesday. Wednesday into the Thursday is the next time frame I will be looking at for a snow potential. the GFS model has been pretty consistent with a Mid Atlantic special storm. We have a low pressure coming through the Gulf States which will then transfer off the NC coast. This is where the models separate. The GFS model brings the storm a bit further north, bringing precipitation into our area and then out to sea. The EURO moves it right out to sea and has little effect on our area. More to come on this.

90 hour GFS todays morning run:

96 hour GFS:

Also, the GFS model brings in some very cold temperatures for the end of the week, so I will also look at that.

All In..... Here We Go!

I have been talking over the past couple of days about it all coming down to the phasing. Well, it does. And, what the models have been showing today is an earlier phase, creating a colder solution, more intense storm, and more precipitation. While there is more precipitation, it doesn't mean we escape rain free everywhere. Many areas in Central NJ will wake up to snow tomorrow that will change to rain. Don't fret, this is an overrunning event from the southern low pressure. Although it changes to rain, it will change back to snow during the afternoon hours. This will be due to the phase of the southern and northern storms. The northern storm will be bringing the cold air to the party. Tomorrow night may be pretty wild even down into Philly.

After seeing two bombs on the NAM model, the Euro holding serve, GFS still showing moderate snows and the SREF models trending colder with identical precipitation amounts, its time. Time to go all in and up some amounts. 

From Allentown, PA to Newark (Rt 78) and NYC north, this will be an all snow event. areas south of there will start as snow, go over to a mix and rain, and then back to snow. Tomorrow night will produce heavy snows, possible thundersnow and snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour. A lot of that will be nowcasted, which I will post on twitter and facebook. 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS:

Philly south to NE MD: 1-3"

Philly North to 195 3-6" 

195 North to 78 6-10" 

78- NYC 10-12" 

Lower Hudson Valley - RT 91 in CT 12-20" 

RT 91 to East Coast 20-30"

these are my conservative numbers now. Pretty confident throwing these out there. 

follow laong on twitter and facebook tomorrow for up to the minute updates and things to keep an eye on.

Stay Safe

Oh- and a special shout out to Rose and Susan from BEI, thanks for following!

New England Historic Storm Taking Shape

If there is one thing that is pretty certain here, is that New England is going to get smoked. These estimates of 24-30" of snow are realistic. This is going to be an old fashioned, New England blizzard. For the rest of us, from NYC south, the uncertainty remains king. We are dealing with two separate low pressures. One, a disturbance diving out of Canada towards the East Coast. The other, a low pressure in the Gulf States. These two low pressures will phase, or merge, along the East Coast and move ENE around the "benchmark"

EDIT- I have mentioned the "benchmark" on several posts, but I have probably not done a good job explaining why this is important. The "benchmark" is located at 40N and 70W and the significance is that a large majority of winter storms pass over this area bringing the perfect balance of distance to bring the biggest storms.

So, the questions remain where exactly these two low pressures phase, how phased the evolving storm can intensify, speed of travel and track of the storm. Each model is still showing some different outcomes based on these variables. Each model is also able to pick up on subtle characteristics that are making the forecast very difficult. Overnight, the NAM model had zero snow for Philly. The GFS showed a couple inches for Philly and the Euro was like 6" for Philly. Whats more mind boggling is while Boston is looking at 30", NYC could very well hit 12" of snow, while Philly sits at zero. This is the type of spread we have. Any earlier phase, we could be looking at substantial snows. Any later, or a further east track, we will be looking at showers with next to nothing.

For now, I am going with snow starting very early tomorrow morning (5- 7 am). Late morning we switch to mixed precipitation and rain. Late afternoon we switch back to snow and may get some period of moderate snows. I think from 195 north to NYC, 3-6" can be expected while areas from 195 south to Philly can expect 1-3". This is based on my current thoughts, but confidence is still low on this. By tonight I will issue a final. Places in NW NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley 8-12" can be expected while areas to the east from I87 - I91  12-20" and then from I91-East Coast 20-30".

Please remember for those areas looking to get walloped that this will be a rapidly intensifying storm and the winds will be whipping. There is also a higher than normal chance for thundersnow. Snowfall rates will easily make 1-3"/hour in many locations, if not more. This will be a very intense and dangerous storm.

Wednesday Morning Update For Friday

As mentioned yesterday, the EURO model has been very very consistent with a significant East Coast storm for a number of successive runs now. This has continued. Not only has it continued, but every run seems to signify a bigger storm. By bigger, I mean affecting more areas. yesterdays midday run was a huge run for areas in New England. As I wrote yesterday, the low pressure was centered off the Carolina coast and moved to the "benchmark" and really hammered New England (specifically the Boston to Maine area). This track and intensity was a bit too late for areas south of NYC.

Last nights overnight EURO run actually shows a low pressure taking shape at the NC/SC border. From here it moves up and rapidly strengthens and brings measurable snowfall into the Philadelphia - NYC corridor. So, this will actually have to be watched to see if this continues. The GFS model did not even show this type of setup 1.5 days ago, but has really trended towards the EURO model. For now, the GFS keeps this as a New England event, with some rain changing over to snow for our area. The NAM (which we are on the outskirts of its range) shows a unphased dual low scenario bringing rain showers to the area.

What else to note, the RPM model has shown this morning a significant snowfall (more so than the EURO) for the NJ area as well as New England. This is again another one of those things we will have to watch to see if this continues. All in all, there is more frozen precipitation on the table today as compared to yesterday.  There is a long way to go to bring frozen precipitation to our area. I am much more enthusiastic about this compared to yesterday. Finger crossed!

A Threat Looming?

A horrid winter trudges on for those loving snow. Each run of the models brings optimism and excitement, but this year usually leads to a let down. Rain  / snow line a bit west, north, temperatures a bit to warm, precipitation just not breaking out, the list continues.

Here we go once again. A lot of talks about a storm on Friday. The EURO had this for a number of consecutive runs (which usually means something). The GFS has now moved to the idea of a Noreaster taking shape on Friday. This does look to be a significant storm, and someone will get a lot of snow. Right now, my money is on New England. I will say this as well, the GFS has trended cooler each run which does mean, any cooler we too could be looking at snow here too. 

For now, a low pressure will phase with a northern stream disturbance off the coast of NC. From here, it will move up the east coast and come close to the "benchmark". The usual factors will need to be looked at here as always.....strong high pressure to the north, blocking, avail cold air, track, intensity etc. As for now, keep in your mind a storm is possible, with a lot of details to work out. 

Overnight Update

A moisture starved clipper will be moving in over the area tonight. Currently, the clipper is over the Ohio River Valley and moving east. It is very disorganized and any moisture it has will hit the mountains in PA and essentially dry up. But, as it dries up, the low pressure will transfer to the coast and redevelop. Now, this will more than likely be too late to allow our area to receive a decent amount of snow, we will be looking at the ground possibly becoming whitened.

Also, this storm has really sped up from earlier discussions about it. I actually think this storm will move in overnight tonight and may be out of here prior to noon tomorrow with lingering snow showers throughout the day. Generally, I think the area will see a coating up to 2". The Pocono region will see slightly more, and coastal areas may see slightly more. Overall though, it will look nice, but nothing major.

FYI, some good news....a big storm is showing up on the models for the time period around Valentines. Day. The bad news, its 300+ hours away. Anyways, it will be monitored.

Where We Head From Here

The mega cold front has pushed through. After a violent two days, temperatures nearing 70 degrees and many areas deluged with rain, the potent cold front has pushed through. Winds are back to the west, and now we can watch temperatures plummet through the day. In fact, Trenton, NJ had a period of time this morning where the temperature dropped 14 degrees in 3 hours (9 degress in 1 hour). Temperatures will get back down into the 30's today, and down below freezing tonight.

Friday will have a shot at some snow showers. More than likely they will not amount to much, but don't be surprised to see some flakes flying. Sunday will be a better shot at a more organized chance of some light snows. Temperatures will drop below freezing over the next few days at night, and highs will be in the mid 30's. Hopefully we can get a nice shot at some snow in the upcoming cooler weather.

The lake effect snow belt areas will be cranking in full force over the next couple days. In fact, snow bands were so potent this morning out near Pittsburgh that thunder was reported in the bands.

Wild Night Upcoming

***FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED FOR THE AREA***
***HIGH WIND WARNINGS POSTED FOR COASTAL AREAS***

FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PASS BETWEEN 11PM AND 2AM. 

Well, if yesterday is any indication of whats coming, we should be in for quite the wild night. 14 Tornado watches issued yesterday, numerous reported tornadoes and other severe weather outbreaks. Continuing this morning, tornado warnings have already been issued for parts of Georgia. This threat will continue. The Storm Prediction Center has been all over this, and they continue with their forecasts for today. They have actually extended their area of severe weather up into our area as designated as the slight risk on their map. A slight risk into these parts in January is quite odd. Anyways, here are their maps:

OUTLOOK:

TORNADO:

WINDS:

So, as you can see, our area (NJ) has been placed in a number of these categories. This is a vigorous cold front coming through and with temperatures getting up into the 60's today (already 65 in Buffalo, NY!!!), there will be some fuel. There are also extremely strong winds above the surface of the earth and any storm that can gain some elevation can get these winds to mix down. I think our primary threat will be strong winds with the frontal passage. We will also have some heavy rain, so much so that a Flash Flood Watch was issued for the area for 1"-2.5" of rain. That much rain falling quickly can lead to quick flooding conditions.

The frontal passage has been pushed back a little, due to it really becoming a slow mover. Originally I was looking for a late afternoon / evening start, but it appears now, that it will pass between 11pm and 2am. For many of you, you will be asleep and will probably be woken up by the winds, rain and possible thunder.

There will be more to come, so stay tuned to twitter @townerswxpage and facebook Towner's Weather PAGE

Roller Coaster Continues 1/29/2013 Morning Update

Well, the warm front has pushed through the area. As a result, we will have a nice thaw for today and tomorrow. Today, highs are looking like we will hit the high 40's to low 50's. Tomorrow, we have a serious shot of 60 degrees. In addition, I am becoming more and more concerned about a severe weather outbreak tomorrow. The severe outbreak is attributed to a strong cold front which is currently marching through the midwest. This front is going to spawn severe weather over the Northern Gulf States. These areas are going to have a rather impressive chance for tornadoes and very strong winds . As shown, the Storms Prediction Center is all over this:

Severe Weather Potential:

Tornadoes:

Winds:

As the front marches eastward, this area will move east. The front will bring very strong winds just off the ground and any storm that can gain some elevation can tap into these winds and mix them down to the surface. This will have to be watched to see how the severe weather plays out today and what that can lead to in 24 hours. SPC sees the threat for tomorrow, but not as pronounced. This may increase depending on how today's events go:

Once this storm pushes through, it will usher in cooler air once again. From there, hopefully we can get some kind of calibration to our winter and allow for some snow to make its way into the snow starved areas in NJ.

Another Close Shot

A warm front will be moving into the area tomorrow and bringing another round of precipitation. We still have an arctic airmass in place which will give way to much milder temperatures (Tuesday, Wednesday). As precipitation comes in, the upper atmosphere will warm, but since cold air is heavier than warm air, the cold air at the surface will take a little bit longer to warm. This process, known as warm ait advection will possibly lead to an icy situation Monday. The timing and extent to which how long it takes the cold air to retreat will all be determining how long icy conditions could stay around.

Areas to the south will have little to no icy time while areas to the north will be a different story. Typically, NW NJ and the Pocono gets quite icy during these setups. Areas further south from Philly to Trenton tend to switch over pretty quickly. Between Trenton and the before-mentioned NW NJ and Pocono region, that will be where the real battle sets up for how long it takes to switch over to all rain. Precipitation makes it in for the morning hours. Many areas will start as snow and then switch over to ice and then rain. Areas will start from south to north.

After this bout with weather, we will have a nice thaw coming for Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern will reload and it will return cold towards the end of the week.

Final Call Friday Storm

5 days ago, I was really anticipating tomorrow under the prospects of having a potential moderate snow event unfolding for the area. Alas, that is not happening, but we are looking for a minor event that will whiten up the area. Snow will move in tomorrow in the early afternoon and will accumulate 1-3" region wide. The snow will move out late evening into the night.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisories for Burlington and Ocean Counties south. These were issued because the threshold for accumulations is lower in those areas. The main concern for the snow will be the evening commute on Friday. if you haven't noticed, it has been pretty cold over the past three days and with that, snow will accumulate as soon as it starts falling. Any accumulations will make for a slick rush hour commute.  Here is the text output by NWS Philly / Mt. Holly:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHILLY / MT HOLLY ADVISORY (CLICK LINK)

1/23/2013 Friday Update

After an up and down week on the models regarding the Friday storm, we are now gaining some semblance of an agreement. from 6"+ earlier in the week, to next to nothing yesterday, models are now showing a small event on the scale of 1-3" over a majority of the region. The storm is currently coming on shore in California, and models will have a much better data set to garner the variables. When weather systems are not over land, we are dependent on instrument drops from commercial aircraft and buoy data. When systems are over land, there are a number of additional areas to gain data. We also have this disturbance moving through today, which will also play into the end result on Friday.

All this being said, we are on tap for a small event for Friday. precipitation will move in during the late morning, early afternoon time frame  and will last into the late evening / night on Friday. More to come on any immediate changes that occur in the modeling.

Sorry for being brief, just a quick update

Snow Chances This Upcoming Week 1/21/13 - 1/27/13

It is being modeled as two chances for storms coming up this week. First, Monday Night a clipper is looking to take aim at the area and a coating - 2" looks possible. Towards the end of the week, we could be looking at a more substantial storm, but models have disagreements on track and strength. More updates tomorrow