3/6/2013 Morning Update

Areas down and around Western Virginia, West Virginia and Western Maryland are getting pounced with snow. 17" already reported in West Virginia. Thundersnow has also been reported in Western Virginia. It is snowing as far south as Richmond. As for us, precipitation has made it into the area as very light rain showers moving in via bands off the ocean. The easterly winds are really putting a hamper on surface temperatures. As the low moves east and northeast, we will gradually see our winds move to a more northerly direction which will allow the rain later to change to snows. I am still not too gung ho as others on accumulations. I am still holding with a coating - 2".

For the remainder of today. Look for more widespread and steady rain to move in. As the low moves from the VA area, our winds will shift, so when this happens is when we will see the rain / snow line move west to east. Overnight, it should be snow and it may accumulate, but again, it will more than likely be confined to grassy surfaces.

More to come,

For breaking info, pictures and observations of the storm, follow me on twitter @townerswxpage and on facebook at  Towner's Weather PAGE

Here is a looping radar which is pretty neat of the storm so far:

Neat Radar Loop Of Storm (CLICK LINK)

Monday 2/11/2013 Afternoon Update

Wednesdays storm looks a little better today on the weather models. Every major model has precipitation into Central Jersey. The big question is going to be precipitation type. Surface temperatures are looking questionable for the start of the storm. may be one of those situations of a mix to snow. At this point, more focused on the threat of a storm than precip types. Credit to the GFS this storm, it has been onto this for a couple days and it appears other models are moving towards it.

The other aspect which has looked really good on the models this morning is for this weekend. I mentioned this morning about the potential for a potent storm, and it is showing up on models. This storm has some serious potential for the area. The GFS model showed a very nice hit and the Euro has some improving pieces (but not quite there yet). The British UKMET model is all over this already and shows an absolute bomb! Tally ho! I really think this will be the one. The overall pattern supports it, and I think tonight's run of the EURO will have it finally.

Just an FYI, sometimes when I tweet out an update from a model run, I am not very specific and you probably see some weird times etc. The major models I look at are all based off Greenwich meantime. You will see a lot of times 00z, 18z etc etc. Those times are the time (2400 military) minus 5 hours (for eastern standard time). So, the 00z NAM run would really be the model run from 7pm, 6z is the 1am run etc.  There is an entire page on my blog devoted to the models and the time the DATA comes out. Some are used in the short range, some are more long term. Here is the link:

WEATHER MODEL INFORMATION (CLICK LINK)

More to come! As always, any questions, let me know.

All In..... Here We Go!

I have been talking over the past couple of days about it all coming down to the phasing. Well, it does. And, what the models have been showing today is an earlier phase, creating a colder solution, more intense storm, and more precipitation. While there is more precipitation, it doesn't mean we escape rain free everywhere. Many areas in Central NJ will wake up to snow tomorrow that will change to rain. Don't fret, this is an overrunning event from the southern low pressure. Although it changes to rain, it will change back to snow during the afternoon hours. This will be due to the phase of the southern and northern storms. The northern storm will be bringing the cold air to the party. Tomorrow night may be pretty wild even down into Philly.

After seeing two bombs on the NAM model, the Euro holding serve, GFS still showing moderate snows and the SREF models trending colder with identical precipitation amounts, its time. Time to go all in and up some amounts. 

From Allentown, PA to Newark (Rt 78) and NYC north, this will be an all snow event. areas south of there will start as snow, go over to a mix and rain, and then back to snow. Tomorrow night will produce heavy snows, possible thundersnow and snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour. A lot of that will be nowcasted, which I will post on twitter and facebook. 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS:

Philly south to NE MD: 1-3"

Philly North to 195 3-6" 

195 North to 78 6-10" 

78- NYC 10-12" 

Lower Hudson Valley - RT 91 in CT 12-20" 

RT 91 to East Coast 20-30"

these are my conservative numbers now. Pretty confident throwing these out there. 

follow laong on twitter and facebook tomorrow for up to the minute updates and things to keep an eye on.

Stay Safe

Oh- and a special shout out to Rose and Susan from BEI, thanks for following!

New England Historic Storm Taking Shape

If there is one thing that is pretty certain here, is that New England is going to get smoked. These estimates of 24-30" of snow are realistic. This is going to be an old fashioned, New England blizzard. For the rest of us, from NYC south, the uncertainty remains king. We are dealing with two separate low pressures. One, a disturbance diving out of Canada towards the East Coast. The other, a low pressure in the Gulf States. These two low pressures will phase, or merge, along the East Coast and move ENE around the "benchmark"

EDIT- I have mentioned the "benchmark" on several posts, but I have probably not done a good job explaining why this is important. The "benchmark" is located at 40N and 70W and the significance is that a large majority of winter storms pass over this area bringing the perfect balance of distance to bring the biggest storms.

So, the questions remain where exactly these two low pressures phase, how phased the evolving storm can intensify, speed of travel and track of the storm. Each model is still showing some different outcomes based on these variables. Each model is also able to pick up on subtle characteristics that are making the forecast very difficult. Overnight, the NAM model had zero snow for Philly. The GFS showed a couple inches for Philly and the Euro was like 6" for Philly. Whats more mind boggling is while Boston is looking at 30", NYC could very well hit 12" of snow, while Philly sits at zero. This is the type of spread we have. Any earlier phase, we could be looking at substantial snows. Any later, or a further east track, we will be looking at showers with next to nothing.

For now, I am going with snow starting very early tomorrow morning (5- 7 am). Late morning we switch to mixed precipitation and rain. Late afternoon we switch back to snow and may get some period of moderate snows. I think from 195 north to NYC, 3-6" can be expected while areas from 195 south to Philly can expect 1-3". This is based on my current thoughts, but confidence is still low on this. By tonight I will issue a final. Places in NW NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley 8-12" can be expected while areas to the east from I87 - I91  12-20" and then from I91-East Coast 20-30".

Please remember for those areas looking to get walloped that this will be a rapidly intensifying storm and the winds will be whipping. There is also a higher than normal chance for thundersnow. Snowfall rates will easily make 1-3"/hour in many locations, if not more. This will be a very intense and dangerous storm.

Overnight Update

A moisture starved clipper will be moving in over the area tonight. Currently, the clipper is over the Ohio River Valley and moving east. It is very disorganized and any moisture it has will hit the mountains in PA and essentially dry up. But, as it dries up, the low pressure will transfer to the coast and redevelop. Now, this will more than likely be too late to allow our area to receive a decent amount of snow, we will be looking at the ground possibly becoming whitened.

Also, this storm has really sped up from earlier discussions about it. I actually think this storm will move in overnight tonight and may be out of here prior to noon tomorrow with lingering snow showers throughout the day. Generally, I think the area will see a coating up to 2". The Pocono region will see slightly more, and coastal areas may see slightly more. Overall though, it will look nice, but nothing major.

FYI, some good news....a big storm is showing up on the models for the time period around Valentines. Day. The bad news, its 300+ hours away. Anyways, it will be monitored.

Wild Night Upcoming

***FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED FOR THE AREA***
***HIGH WIND WARNINGS POSTED FOR COASTAL AREAS***

FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PASS BETWEEN 11PM AND 2AM. 

Well, if yesterday is any indication of whats coming, we should be in for quite the wild night. 14 Tornado watches issued yesterday, numerous reported tornadoes and other severe weather outbreaks. Continuing this morning, tornado warnings have already been issued for parts of Georgia. This threat will continue. The Storm Prediction Center has been all over this, and they continue with their forecasts for today. They have actually extended their area of severe weather up into our area as designated as the slight risk on their map. A slight risk into these parts in January is quite odd. Anyways, here are their maps:

OUTLOOK:

TORNADO:

WINDS:

So, as you can see, our area (NJ) has been placed in a number of these categories. This is a vigorous cold front coming through and with temperatures getting up into the 60's today (already 65 in Buffalo, NY!!!), there will be some fuel. There are also extremely strong winds above the surface of the earth and any storm that can gain some elevation can get these winds to mix down. I think our primary threat will be strong winds with the frontal passage. We will also have some heavy rain, so much so that a Flash Flood Watch was issued for the area for 1"-2.5" of rain. That much rain falling quickly can lead to quick flooding conditions.

The frontal passage has been pushed back a little, due to it really becoming a slow mover. Originally I was looking for a late afternoon / evening start, but it appears now, that it will pass between 11pm and 2am. For many of you, you will be asleep and will probably be woken up by the winds, rain and possible thunder.

There will be more to come, so stay tuned to twitter @townerswxpage and facebook Towner's Weather PAGE

Final Call Friday Storm

5 days ago, I was really anticipating tomorrow under the prospects of having a potential moderate snow event unfolding for the area. Alas, that is not happening, but we are looking for a minor event that will whiten up the area. Snow will move in tomorrow in the early afternoon and will accumulate 1-3" region wide. The snow will move out late evening into the night.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisories for Burlington and Ocean Counties south. These were issued because the threshold for accumulations is lower in those areas. The main concern for the snow will be the evening commute on Friday. if you haven't noticed, it has been pretty cold over the past three days and with that, snow will accumulate as soon as it starts falling. Any accumulations will make for a slick rush hour commute.  Here is the text output by NWS Philly / Mt. Holly:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHILLY / MT HOLLY ADVISORY (CLICK LINK)

1/23/2013 Friday Update

After an up and down week on the models regarding the Friday storm, we are now gaining some semblance of an agreement. from 6"+ earlier in the week, to next to nothing yesterday, models are now showing a small event on the scale of 1-3" over a majority of the region. The storm is currently coming on shore in California, and models will have a much better data set to garner the variables. When weather systems are not over land, we are dependent on instrument drops from commercial aircraft and buoy data. When systems are over land, there are a number of additional areas to gain data. We also have this disturbance moving through today, which will also play into the end result on Friday.

All this being said, we are on tap for a small event for Friday. precipitation will move in during the late morning, early afternoon time frame  and will last into the late evening / night on Friday. More to come on any immediate changes that occur in the modeling.

Sorry for being brief, just a quick update

1/22/13 Late Week Morning Update

What a quick burst of snow last night. Numerous accidents and road closures occurred due to the snow first melting on the roadways and then freezing due to the plummeting temperatures. That combination is always a recipe for disaster.

With that gone, we can now focus on Friday. The Euro has been steadfast in a moderate event for the area. The GFS has been waffling between a moderate storm and snow showers. The NAM model goes out 84 hours, and we are just getting to that timeframe. What I have seen on the NAM at hour 84 two runs in a row, looks to be it wants to give us a moderate hit as well. What the models are going to be focusing on is a disturbance that comes through the area on Wednesday. While the disturbance will not bring us any precipitation, it is going to be a major factor in setting the storm up on Friday. How the models show this will ultimately lead to their respective outcomes.

As of now, still looking more likely than not to have a storm on Friday. The usual questions still looking to be answered....track, intensity, changeover (if any) etc. There will be more to come on this!