12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Evening Update 12/16/13)

No major changes on the model runs today. Snow spreads into the region between 4-7am and will likely be out of the area come early afternoon. No real major changes to the accumulations. Shore areas may start as snow, but likely will change over to rain rather quickly with no accumulation.  I am liking 1-2" for essentially the lower half of Jersey (South of Burlington / Ocean Counties) in areas where it snows. Northern Jersey (North of Mercer/Monmouth) could see 2-4". 

There is also some modeling that is showing another wave moving through tomorrow night for the southern half of NJ. This could potentially drop another coating up to 1" for some areas if it materializes. 

Also, another thing I cannot rule out is the fact that Clippers often times come in moisture starved and can really under perform. Our best accumulations come from a Clipper that moves in, hits the ocean and intensifies, dropping measurable snowfalls. This will not be the case with this system. This will be a quick moving system and with no blocking downstream, it will fly through. So, that's another thing I will be watching. 

For those of you who do not like snow, in 36 hours our temperatures will be moderating to more normal temperatures. Then, this weekend, we will be looking at highs in the 50's. In addition, winter officially starts this weekend. Colder temperatures will return around the Christmas time. 

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15 (Update FRIDAY PM)

So, I have stressed over the past two days about tight gradients. Today, models continued to show that in our area, 40 miles can really make the difference between no accumulations and quite possibly 6-10". We could really see something like Southern Bucks Co, PA with 2" while Northern Bucks County is getting 8" I cannot stress enough how close this will be. There will be some things that will be nowcasted tomorrow that could change things as well. I will be updating frequently throughout the day on facebook and twitter.

Some of the things I will be looking at tomorrow:

1. Miller B type storms (which this is) usually leads to some type of "dry slot". This is an area where there is a break in precipitation. When and where this happens will obviously have an effect.

2. Placement of high pressure in Canada (directly north of us). If it is closer to the Canada/US border, we could see the cold air hold on longer. If it migrates up to Quebec or farther north, we may have an earlier transition to sleet

3. Any banding that develops that can enhance snowfall totals. 

4. Where the primary low pressure dies and where the new one takes over. Either of these things can also effect our area

In any case, on to amounts. 

coastal areas of NJ, I am expecting an almost all rain event. Possibly some snow to start, but quickly to rain

inland from there, SNJ East of the NJ TP up to 195 I expect 1-3" then rain

PHL - Trenton - West of the NJTP 1-3" before turning over to a bit of sleet and then rain

just to the NW of PHL - Trenton- New Brunswick - Newark, NJ 3-6" mix then rain late

Areas of the Lehigh Valley, C PA , NW NJ, Lower Hudson Valley through S CT 6-10"

Central and Northern CT through MASS up through VT, NH and Maine generally 10-14"

These are my thoughts at this time. Tomorrow will be a nowcasting day and any changes can lead to significant changes. 

Monday/Tuesday Update (Sunday 3/24/13 morning)

The model runs last night really painted a great storm......if this was 2 months ago. 2 months ago, we would be talking about 8-12" of snow. But, since its the end of March, its a different story.  NAM, GFS, EURO, Canadian models all showing a decent hit.

It will snow tomorrow most of the day, and may even be heavy at times. The problem is, it will be very tough to get anything to accumulate. The higher sun angle and the radiational heating on the pavement will limit accumulation there. Surface temperatures tomorrow will also be in the mid to upper 30's which will make it tough to even accumulate on the grassy surfaces. Look for snow to start during the early morning hours, between 6-8am.

That being said, Central and Southern NJ will be in the prime area for snowfall and if we can obtain some extremely heavy bands, we may be able to pull off a couple inches. The potential is there, tomorrow is really going to be a nowcast situation to see where the heavy bands set up. 

More to come!

Snow To Start?

Precipitation is moving in from the west with a large area of snow for northern areas. Even down into central NJ, this may start out as snow, and may last for a little bit until warmer air works in. Temperatures are in the upper 30's now, but dewpoints are in the lower 20's. As precipitation moves in, the dewpoint will rise and the temperatures will lower until they meet. This is known as evaporational cooling. I still do not feel any accumulations will take place across central NJ, but northern areas it may be a different story.

RADAR WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE (CLICK LINK)

3/6/2013 Morning Update

Areas down and around Western Virginia, West Virginia and Western Maryland are getting pounced with snow. 17" already reported in West Virginia. Thundersnow has also been reported in Western Virginia. It is snowing as far south as Richmond. As for us, precipitation has made it into the area as very light rain showers moving in via bands off the ocean. The easterly winds are really putting a hamper on surface temperatures. As the low moves east and northeast, we will gradually see our winds move to a more northerly direction which will allow the rain later to change to snows. I am still not too gung ho as others on accumulations. I am still holding with a coating - 2".

For the remainder of today. Look for more widespread and steady rain to move in. As the low moves from the VA area, our winds will shift, so when this happens is when we will see the rain / snow line move west to east. Overnight, it should be snow and it may accumulate, but again, it will more than likely be confined to grassy surfaces.

More to come,

For breaking info, pictures and observations of the storm, follow me on twitter @townerswxpage and on facebook at  Towner's Weather PAGE

Here is a looping radar which is pretty neat of the storm so far:

Neat Radar Loop Of Storm (CLICK LINK)

Wednesday 2/13/2013 Morning Update

Look for precipitation to break out around 7pm. Surface temperatures today will be quite warm, so that is going to limit the amount that accumulates on paved surfaces. This will be more of a nuisance event, especially since there will be little accumulation on pavement. Precipitation moves out around midnight, so its a quick hitter. General accumulations from 2-4" across the area, mostly on grassy surfaces. Once you get north and west of Route 80, precipitation really cuts down. 

Still keeping an eye on the weekend, as the potential is still there. Nothing of substance is really showing up, but it will be monitored. 

Tuesday 2/12/2013 Morning Update

Increasingly more confident of measurable snows moving into the area for Wednesday Night into Thursday. Over the past 24 hours, models have kept the measurable precipitation SOUTH of areas just bombarded (CT, NYC etc). For those areas a coating to 1" can be expected. From NYC South to Trenton 1-2" looks good. From the Trenton area south towards Philly 2-4" is my call, and areas south of that, while seeing more precipitation, you will have serious surface temperature issues preventing a lot of accumulation 1-3" down there. In any case, this looks to be a quick hitter. precipitation moves in between 6pm and 8pm and is out by 7am.

For the weekend there still remains a lot of questions. Most major models are not showing anything resembling a monster storm. The UKMET is probably the closest, but for now remaining cautiously optimistic about the event. More to come on this.

All In..... Here We Go!

I have been talking over the past couple of days about it all coming down to the phasing. Well, it does. And, what the models have been showing today is an earlier phase, creating a colder solution, more intense storm, and more precipitation. While there is more precipitation, it doesn't mean we escape rain free everywhere. Many areas in Central NJ will wake up to snow tomorrow that will change to rain. Don't fret, this is an overrunning event from the southern low pressure. Although it changes to rain, it will change back to snow during the afternoon hours. This will be due to the phase of the southern and northern storms. The northern storm will be bringing the cold air to the party. Tomorrow night may be pretty wild even down into Philly.

After seeing two bombs on the NAM model, the Euro holding serve, GFS still showing moderate snows and the SREF models trending colder with identical precipitation amounts, its time. Time to go all in and up some amounts. 

From Allentown, PA to Newark (Rt 78) and NYC north, this will be an all snow event. areas south of there will start as snow, go over to a mix and rain, and then back to snow. Tomorrow night will produce heavy snows, possible thundersnow and snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour. A lot of that will be nowcasted, which I will post on twitter and facebook. 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS:

Philly south to NE MD: 1-3"

Philly North to 195 3-6" 

195 North to 78 6-10" 

78- NYC 10-12" 

Lower Hudson Valley - RT 91 in CT 12-20" 

RT 91 to East Coast 20-30"

these are my conservative numbers now. Pretty confident throwing these out there. 

follow laong on twitter and facebook tomorrow for up to the minute updates and things to keep an eye on.

Stay Safe

Oh- and a special shout out to Rose and Susan from BEI, thanks for following!

New England Historic Storm Taking Shape

If there is one thing that is pretty certain here, is that New England is going to get smoked. These estimates of 24-30" of snow are realistic. This is going to be an old fashioned, New England blizzard. For the rest of us, from NYC south, the uncertainty remains king. We are dealing with two separate low pressures. One, a disturbance diving out of Canada towards the East Coast. The other, a low pressure in the Gulf States. These two low pressures will phase, or merge, along the East Coast and move ENE around the "benchmark"

EDIT- I have mentioned the "benchmark" on several posts, but I have probably not done a good job explaining why this is important. The "benchmark" is located at 40N and 70W and the significance is that a large majority of winter storms pass over this area bringing the perfect balance of distance to bring the biggest storms.

So, the questions remain where exactly these two low pressures phase, how phased the evolving storm can intensify, speed of travel and track of the storm. Each model is still showing some different outcomes based on these variables. Each model is also able to pick up on subtle characteristics that are making the forecast very difficult. Overnight, the NAM model had zero snow for Philly. The GFS showed a couple inches for Philly and the Euro was like 6" for Philly. Whats more mind boggling is while Boston is looking at 30", NYC could very well hit 12" of snow, while Philly sits at zero. This is the type of spread we have. Any earlier phase, we could be looking at substantial snows. Any later, or a further east track, we will be looking at showers with next to nothing.

For now, I am going with snow starting very early tomorrow morning (5- 7 am). Late morning we switch to mixed precipitation and rain. Late afternoon we switch back to snow and may get some period of moderate snows. I think from 195 north to NYC, 3-6" can be expected while areas from 195 south to Philly can expect 1-3". This is based on my current thoughts, but confidence is still low on this. By tonight I will issue a final. Places in NW NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley 8-12" can be expected while areas to the east from I87 - I91  12-20" and then from I91-East Coast 20-30".

Please remember for those areas looking to get walloped that this will be a rapidly intensifying storm and the winds will be whipping. There is also a higher than normal chance for thundersnow. Snowfall rates will easily make 1-3"/hour in many locations, if not more. This will be a very intense and dangerous storm.

Wednesday Morning Update For Friday

As mentioned yesterday, the EURO model has been very very consistent with a significant East Coast storm for a number of successive runs now. This has continued. Not only has it continued, but every run seems to signify a bigger storm. By bigger, I mean affecting more areas. yesterdays midday run was a huge run for areas in New England. As I wrote yesterday, the low pressure was centered off the Carolina coast and moved to the "benchmark" and really hammered New England (specifically the Boston to Maine area). This track and intensity was a bit too late for areas south of NYC.

Last nights overnight EURO run actually shows a low pressure taking shape at the NC/SC border. From here it moves up and rapidly strengthens and brings measurable snowfall into the Philadelphia - NYC corridor. So, this will actually have to be watched to see if this continues. The GFS model did not even show this type of setup 1.5 days ago, but has really trended towards the EURO model. For now, the GFS keeps this as a New England event, with some rain changing over to snow for our area. The NAM (which we are on the outskirts of its range) shows a unphased dual low scenario bringing rain showers to the area.

What else to note, the RPM model has shown this morning a significant snowfall (more so than the EURO) for the NJ area as well as New England. This is again another one of those things we will have to watch to see if this continues. All in all, there is more frozen precipitation on the table today as compared to yesterday.  There is a long way to go to bring frozen precipitation to our area. I am much more enthusiastic about this compared to yesterday. Finger crossed!

A Threat Looming?

A horrid winter trudges on for those loving snow. Each run of the models brings optimism and excitement, but this year usually leads to a let down. Rain  / snow line a bit west, north, temperatures a bit to warm, precipitation just not breaking out, the list continues.

Here we go once again. A lot of talks about a storm on Friday. The EURO had this for a number of consecutive runs (which usually means something). The GFS has now moved to the idea of a Noreaster taking shape on Friday. This does look to be a significant storm, and someone will get a lot of snow. Right now, my money is on New England. I will say this as well, the GFS has trended cooler each run which does mean, any cooler we too could be looking at snow here too. 

For now, a low pressure will phase with a northern stream disturbance off the coast of NC. From here, it will move up the east coast and come close to the "benchmark". The usual factors will need to be looked at here as always.....strong high pressure to the north, blocking, avail cold air, track, intensity etc. As for now, keep in your mind a storm is possible, with a lot of details to work out. 

Another Clipper Moves Through Tonight

Well, for the third straight night, we will have another clipper moving through. Currently, the clipper is moving through Chicago and Indiana and will be making a drive east to the coast. I like our chances here to see a couple inches in Central NJ. We are in a great spot as it relates to clippers. The low pressure associated with the clipper will move just to our south. Usually, a path from the low out about 75-100 miles on either side is prime for the highest accumulations with a clipper. We are sitting within that (as modeled). The NAM model would bring us 2-3" while the GFS is more of a C-2" I would expect Advisories to be issued again for the overnight.

There may be another shot at a weak disturbance moving through Wednesday morning, and then I think clippermania comes to a stop. Our weather may get pretty boring for a couple days. After that, we will have to monitor and see what kind of storm tracks set up. Friday is looking interesting. the EURO model has shown for three consecutive runs and storm off the Carolina Coast which phases and comes up the east coast. The GFS has this too, but doesn't phase, and it just scoots off the Carolina Coast. The Euro has been horrible of late, but nonetheless I will be watching it.

Snow looks to start 11pm-1am tonight and may last for a couple hours into the morning commute. Temperatures will be cold in the 20's.

Overnight Update

A moisture starved clipper will be moving in over the area tonight. Currently, the clipper is over the Ohio River Valley and moving east. It is very disorganized and any moisture it has will hit the mountains in PA and essentially dry up. But, as it dries up, the low pressure will transfer to the coast and redevelop. Now, this will more than likely be too late to allow our area to receive a decent amount of snow, we will be looking at the ground possibly becoming whitened.

Also, this storm has really sped up from earlier discussions about it. I actually think this storm will move in overnight tonight and may be out of here prior to noon tomorrow with lingering snow showers throughout the day. Generally, I think the area will see a coating up to 2". The Pocono region will see slightly more, and coastal areas may see slightly more. Overall though, it will look nice, but nothing major.

FYI, some good news....a big storm is showing up on the models for the time period around Valentines. Day. The bad news, its 300+ hours away. Anyways, it will be monitored.

Final Call Friday Storm

5 days ago, I was really anticipating tomorrow under the prospects of having a potential moderate snow event unfolding for the area. Alas, that is not happening, but we are looking for a minor event that will whiten up the area. Snow will move in tomorrow in the early afternoon and will accumulate 1-3" region wide. The snow will move out late evening into the night.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisories for Burlington and Ocean Counties south. These were issued because the threshold for accumulations is lower in those areas. The main concern for the snow will be the evening commute on Friday. if you haven't noticed, it has been pretty cold over the past three days and with that, snow will accumulate as soon as it starts falling. Any accumulations will make for a slick rush hour commute.  Here is the text output by NWS Philly / Mt. Holly:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHILLY / MT HOLLY ADVISORY (CLICK LINK)

1/23/2013 Friday Update

After an up and down week on the models regarding the Friday storm, we are now gaining some semblance of an agreement. from 6"+ earlier in the week, to next to nothing yesterday, models are now showing a small event on the scale of 1-3" over a majority of the region. The storm is currently coming on shore in California, and models will have a much better data set to garner the variables. When weather systems are not over land, we are dependent on instrument drops from commercial aircraft and buoy data. When systems are over land, there are a number of additional areas to gain data. We also have this disturbance moving through today, which will also play into the end result on Friday.

All this being said, we are on tap for a small event for Friday. precipitation will move in during the late morning, early afternoon time frame  and will last into the late evening / night on Friday. More to come on any immediate changes that occur in the modeling.

Sorry for being brief, just a quick update

12/28/2012 Evening Update

Well, what a turn of events on the weather modeling regarding tomorrows storm. Yesterday, we were looking at a storm that was tracking east of us far enough where there was no issues with precipitation type. We were getting snow, end of story. Today, things have changed. Each model run has brought a solution closer and closer to the coast, and also transferring energy and phasing energy sooner. All this leaves us in a position where we may actually have to worry about a changeover to a mix, or worse, rain.

Models have been showing this all day, and each run is more precipitation and further west (bringing in warmer air). I am kinda hoping there is a correction back a bit to the east on tonights runs, but not overly enthusiastic that happens. Tomorrow, it is very possible as of now, that coastal areas get a brief period of snow before a direct change to rain. That rain/snow line will then march northward and to what extent is unknown, it will just have to be watched in a nowcasting situation tomorrow. It will more than likely setup shop somewhere around interstate 95.

More to come.

Tomorrow Update

Well, there is a general consensus amongst the models on a moderate snow event Saturday. We will have snow moving in around daybreak and will fall for the majority of the daylight hours. As of now, I am thinking 2-4" area wide. Places towards the coast may be limited due to mixing issues.

There are some issues too that could lead to some changes as well. Currently, northern stream (from Canada) and southern stream lows (from S US) are going to move towards the area. A phase is expected to take place just off the Delaware / Virginia Coast. If this phase does not occur, we would probably have some snow showers move through with a dusting. If it phases further north, we would have a decreased amount of snow. Further south, we would have to see how fast it could intensify, how close to the coast (closer would push the rain/snow line further west) it would track.

As of now though, I am thinking 2-4" area wide.

updates as always on twitter (@townerswxage) and facebook (Towner's Weather PAGE).