Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Wednesday Afternoon Update)

First and foremost, our storm is really taking a toll in the Southeastern US. Snows and ice are really hitting an area hard that is not normally accustomed to this. I can only hope everyone down there follows their forecasts and have plans done accordingly.

For our area up here, we are about 10 hours away from the start of our storm. As you can see, we are dealing with a very large storm. We can see a direct influence from the Gulf Of Mexico feeding directly into our low pressure. This will be a very intense and large storm. This will also probably be our longest duration event for the year.

My going thinking has been 4-8" for the area and then a switch over to a mix and possibly rain. I do think we switch back to snow as the CCB (Cold Conveyor Belt) swings through the area. The CCB is the back end of the "comma" head of the storm. As the storm pushes through, this will swing over the area. How much additional will that add? Well, like everything else with this storm, it depends.

I will say, the models have been all over the place with this very large and complex storm. My 4-8" is my best guess trying to make sense and from experience with these types of storms from prior years. Growing up in NJ, most of the large intense storms bring a period of a transition to a mix or rain. As the storm moves east of the area, we go back to snow till the end of the storm. While the model guidance has been less than stellar, I do hold out hope for the short range models, the HRRR and the RUC models which will be in their range later on tonight.

While my call is 4-8" with a transition, the confidence of that is low to medium. I think we are going to see some very impressive snowfall rates through the area. We have a storm that is going to dump between 1-2" of precipitation. The question is going to be figuring out, how much of that is snow, mix, rain. If it were all snow, we would be looking at 12"+ easily. Now, how fast do we transition? Do we transition? does it stay as sleet? freezing rain? rain? Do we go back to snow? What kind of precipitation rates do we have? These questions will all be answered starting in 10 hours. Until then, I am going with the 4-8" as my conservative estimate, with a strong feeling that the totals may end up higher than that.

So, while those are the accumulation questions, there will be other questions that will also need to be answered. I said that we are dealing with a very large and dynamic storm. Even if warm air moves in, and the surface temps get above freezing, if we have a period of very heavy precipitation, we can remain snow if the upper atmosphere is still below freezing. This will all have to be tracked as well with the storm. Obviously, if the rates are not that impressive, or the upper atmosphere and surface are above freezing, we will have rain. Speaking of dynamic......I fully expect there to be a good number of reports of thundersnow tomorrow. Maybe even as early as the early morning hours.

So, the specifics.

Snow moves in around midnight to 2am. It will snow very heavily in the early morning hours, with the possibility of thundersnow. Accumulations by the time we wake up will be 3-6". I expect to pick up another inch or two and then a transition to a mix will occur as the storm moves closer and some warmer air floods the upper atmosphere. I do think though we will remain sleet for a while. During the afternoon, precipitation may actually stop or become very drizzly. To the evening hours, I expect the CCB to intensify and move through dropping more intense snowfall before ending towards midnight. Exactly how much will depend on how the low pressure bombs out, and how much moisture can be thrown back over the area.

Anyways, those are my thoughts and concerns as of now. As always, I will be posting on facebook and twitter throughout the day and night.

Stay Safe!

Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Tuesday AM Update)

Overnight model runs have concluded and now I am looking forward towards today noon model runs. Last night, I explained on facebook where we were before the model runs. Overnight, the NAM was less amped, the GFS moved a bit west (but overall had a much better organization). The EURO was pretty steadfast on its track showing a front end thump of snow and then a transition to a mix and possibly rain. Today the models continued down the same roads and the NAM, GFS and Canadian models all bring in a period of sleet/mix/rain to CNJ.

With that, it has become more and more clear that our area will see some transition over to sleet/mix/rain etc. The projected track (on any of the models) will make it very difficult for us to remain all snow. Areas NW of 95 should do really well and will cash in with widespread areas of 12"+. Those areas would be places like Reading, the Lehigh Valley, NE PA and possibly NW NJ. I think areas down in CNJ are looking at a nice front end thump of snow 4-8" (possibly more) and then a transition over to sleet/mix and then possibly rain. There could also be a change back to all snow on the tail end. Coastal areas, there is a full moon expected as well Thursday, and with a developing low pressure coming up the coast, spells disaster for coastal flooding. 

In any case, a shift in the models by 50 miles east could make quite a difference. Same with a shift 50 miles west. With that, those are my general ideas. There will be more updates to come. We are still 36 hours away so there is some time for some wiggles. If you know anyone down in the NE Georgia, Central SC and NC areas, they will be receiving an epic ice storm. Make sure those down there are prepared and follow their latest forecasts down there. We still have people up this way without power from our storm last Wednesday. Also, areas not accustomed to snow could be in for some surprises as well (South Central VA, W NC etc). Also, DC looks to actually be in a pretty decent spot up our way for a pretty decent storm as well. 

More to come

February 5th Event (Monday PM Update)

As we wind down from our storm today, we can now turn out attention to the upcoming threat on Wednesday. Last week I made a post about a very active pattern unfolding over the area, and that seems to be the case. Yes, we have a lot of threats, and yes, we have some shots at snow. I will however, take it one storm at a time. I spoke of the change in any variable from a previous storm having an impact on storms following. Case in point, the next storm up, Wednesday.

Two days ago, this was looking like a washout. Now, with some fresh snowcover down, there is talk of a couple inches of snow and then a switch over to a mix and then to rain. Places now in NW NJ and NE PA could get a whole lot of snow and never transition over now. So, I am going to be curious to see how the models interpret this tonight and tomorrow. I have a sneaking suspicion that we could be in for a ice event, especially from Trenton north. 

As of now, Snow moves in late tomorrow night and will accumulate. Precipitation will transition over to a mix from south to north. It will make it to about rt 80 where north of there is out best bet to remain all snow. In addition, the mix will also change over to rain from south to north, and how far up that goes will be the question. This will be another quick moving storm, and will probably be out of here again by the late afternoon Wednesday. More to come on this storm. 

January 2-3, 2014 Storm Final Thoughts (Thursday AM)

Final thoughts are in. I am actually quite excited for this storm to get underway in the area. It has the "look" and "feel" out there of a big storm if there is such a thing. Temperatures have already started falling as I am currently sitting at 31 after a mornin temp of 34 during my drive into work this morning. 

Interaction between the polar and subtropical jets have started, now we just need to wait until the precipitation fills in. Areas up north in PA, NY, CT and MA already have snow falling. This is associated with the polar jet plunging south. 

Light snow showers will overspread the area this afternoon. Snow showers will be sparse at first but will fill in and intensify towards evening. Late evening and overnight snow will really pick up. Winds will also start cranking in response to a rapidly developing low pressure along the easy coast. Temperatures will also plummet to single digits in the north and the teens throughout the rest of the state and even to the coast!

Winds will be whipping the snow around and substantial drifting will occur. In addition, with cold temperatures (highs tomorrow in the low teens) salt will not have the same effect on the roads. It will be a lot harder to have the melting power  in the colder temps. 

Generally, I am looking for 2-4" across extreme SNJ, N DE and NE MD. 4-8" across much of CNJ including the Philly to Trenton area. I also like 6-10" across NNJ into the NYC area. Areas in CT 8-12"

The real wildcard here will be where some of the intense snow bands set up. Weather models have been showing them along the NJ coast (Ocean and Monmouth Counties) and over Long Island. They can set up anywhere, and getting stuck under them can raise snow amounts 2-4"

In any case, be safe and stay alert for warnings. I will be updating throughout the day! 

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Update 12/16/13 morning)

All models are showing a clipper moving into the area tomorrow morning bringing another round of snow for the area. This will be primarily an accumulating snow for areas north of S NJ - Philly line. Our area can expect probably on the order of 1-3" with 1" being in the lower areas and more as you go north. Areas north of Newark into the Lower Hudson Valley and CT could potentially be looking at 2-4". This will be another quick moving storm. Precipitation breaks out over the morning hours, and will wrap up during the afternoon.

Interesting tidbit on the noontime NAM model run, still has a little area that pops up tomorrow night as a second wave moves in, which focuses precipitation over S NJ. They could possible pick up another 1-2" down there assuming temperatures cooperate.

Once this passes through, temperatures will moderate through the rest of the week. Towards the end of the week and the weekend, we may have highs into the 50's over the C NJ area. Temperatures do look to once again get colder around Christmas.

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat

On the heels of a very good week for the snow lovers, we begin this week with a clipper threat heading our way for Tuesday. This will once again be a quick hitting storm, but will drop some accumulating snow in our area. Snow looks to move in during the late morning hours and then will be out by the evening. Models are also showing another disturbance that may move in overnight Tuesday and bring some more snow showers to the area. Generally speaking, this event will be a E PA, NJ, S NY up through the Northeast. More to come on this! Generally looking at a 1-3" / 2-4" type event.

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15 (Update FRIDAY PM)

So, I have stressed over the past two days about tight gradients. Today, models continued to show that in our area, 40 miles can really make the difference between no accumulations and quite possibly 6-10". We could really see something like Southern Bucks Co, PA with 2" while Northern Bucks County is getting 8" I cannot stress enough how close this will be. There will be some things that will be nowcasted tomorrow that could change things as well. I will be updating frequently throughout the day on facebook and twitter.

Some of the things I will be looking at tomorrow:

1. Miller B type storms (which this is) usually leads to some type of "dry slot". This is an area where there is a break in precipitation. When and where this happens will obviously have an effect.

2. Placement of high pressure in Canada (directly north of us). If it is closer to the Canada/US border, we could see the cold air hold on longer. If it migrates up to Quebec or farther north, we may have an earlier transition to sleet

3. Any banding that develops that can enhance snowfall totals. 

4. Where the primary low pressure dies and where the new one takes over. Either of these things can also effect our area

In any case, on to amounts. 

coastal areas of NJ, I am expecting an almost all rain event. Possibly some snow to start, but quickly to rain

inland from there, SNJ East of the NJ TP up to 195 I expect 1-3" then rain

PHL - Trenton - West of the NJTP 1-3" before turning over to a bit of sleet and then rain

just to the NW of PHL - Trenton- New Brunswick - Newark, NJ 3-6" mix then rain late

Areas of the Lehigh Valley, C PA , NW NJ, Lower Hudson Valley through S CT 6-10"

Central and Northern CT through MASS up through VT, NH and Maine generally 10-14"

These are my thoughts at this time. Tomorrow will be a nowcasting day and any changes can lead to significant changes. 

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15

The area will once again be looking at another storm moving in. This past week, many areas have eclipsed total snows from the last two years combined and we are looking at another storm adding to snow totals. We have a little different setup for this storm, which will make things interesting going into the weekend. We will have a low pressure system moving into the Ohio River Valley which will die off and transfer energy to a new low pressure along the coast. The big questions for our area will be, where does the initial low pressure die off, and where does the new low form. Having a low pressure to your west will spell temperature disaster if it holds on longer than projected, and likewise, if it dies earlier and the new low forms earlier, temperatures can be more favorable for snow. These storms have led to numerous issues that have happened before, and have both worked against us and for us.

As it is modeled now, it appears we will have a period of snow Saturday afternoon and evening before temperatures rise high enough to transition to mixed precipitation and then rain by early Sunday morning. We would be in for a couple inches of snow before the transition. Areas in NE PA, NW NJ, North of NYC and mid to northern area of CT will do very well with this storm. Its the areas south of those that will have the battles going on.

The NAM model has been the warmest of most models and keeps the low pressure tucked into the coastal region, while the EURO and GFS models keep the low pressure about 150-200 miles out into the ocean. The NAM would have a quicker transition to rain while the EURO and GFS will allow for a little more snow. I will be watching to see if any of those models begin to shift toward the other. In any case, all show a start of snow and a couple inch accumulation.

There will be more to come with this over the next two days, so stay tuned and enjoy the cold weather today and tomorrow!

From One Type Of Watch To Another

Our constant barrage of Flood and Severe Thunderstorm Watches from last week has transitioned over to Excessive Heat Watches this week. The areas affected are the counties between and around Philly to Trenton. Temperatures over the next few days will be in the lower 90's and the humidity values will make temps feel like 100 degrees. The three H's are back.....Hazy, Hot and Humid! Enjoy!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-052100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.EH.A.0001.130706T1500Z-130708T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-
LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
346 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...NEAR 100 DEGREES DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
  LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
  70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO
  MID 70S.

* TIMING...THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
  EACH DAY AND DEW POINTS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER ON
  SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN
WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY
IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP
ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

&&

$$

Thunderstorms For Areas Outlined By SPC

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CHESTER COUNTY AND DELAWARE COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN BURLINGTON COUNTY AND NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS AND IT WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

Another Round Of Heavy Rain And Severe Weather

A vigorous disturbance moves in tomorrow bringing more flooding rains. This time though, this will be accompanied by severe weather. Heavy rains will blanket the area, although more may fall north from NNJ/NYC through New England. 2-4" will be a good bet up there. Further south, we are looking at another 1-2" but will take the brunt of the severe weather. Heavy rains, dangerous lightning, strong winds, hail and even a tornado threat will be present. I will have more to come on this in a more detailed post this evening. Tomorrow is looking nasty! 

Monday/Tuesday Update (Sunday 3/24/13 morning)

The model runs last night really painted a great storm......if this was 2 months ago. 2 months ago, we would be talking about 8-12" of snow. But, since its the end of March, its a different story.  NAM, GFS, EURO, Canadian models all showing a decent hit.

It will snow tomorrow most of the day, and may even be heavy at times. The problem is, it will be very tough to get anything to accumulate. The higher sun angle and the radiational heating on the pavement will limit accumulation there. Surface temperatures tomorrow will also be in the mid to upper 30's which will make it tough to even accumulate on the grassy surfaces. Look for snow to start during the early morning hours, between 6-8am.

That being said, Central and Southern NJ will be in the prime area for snowfall and if we can obtain some extremely heavy bands, we may be able to pull off a couple inches. The potential is there, tomorrow is really going to be a nowcast situation to see where the heavy bands set up. 

More to come!

Another Surprise Today?

Not as likely, but temperatures are around 30 degrees. Temperatures that low, combined with a dew point in the mid teens will allow todays precipitation to start out as snow. Gradually, it will changeover to a mix and rain. A large majority of the precipitation for us in Central NJ will be rain. For areas north and west, it will be a different story. Snow and ice will rule the day and night. Areas in the Poconos, NW NJ and into NY and CT have a real mess on their hands. Areas even further north into Upstate NY and Northern New England can see up to a foot of snow! Not bad for late March.

Current Warnings (Pink)
Current Advisories (Blue)