Frontal Passage Tomorrow Night

High temperatures will make it into the low 40's tomorrow before a cold front will push through and drop our temperatures through the 30's and into the 20's tomorrow night. With the cold front passage, our area will have a chance for some rain / snow showers. No accumulation is expected, but don't be surprised to see some snow flakes flying around tomorrow night. Areas in NE PA and NW NJ have the best chance of getting around 1" of snowfall. 

After the frontal passage, temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to reach freezing. Thursday and Friday will be a bit warmer and we will then have a chance of some rain for the early part of the weekend. Still watching for our first significant chance of some snow, which does not appear to be heading our way this week. 

Hazardous Weather Outlook from the NWS (north of 195 in NJ): 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
412 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-122115-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
LOWER BUCKS-
412 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLIPPERY
TRAVEL IS OVER THE POCONOS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED.....C NJ

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-180700-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN
DELMARVA THROUGH THE LOCAL PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA FOR
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY A TRACE.

* TIMING...THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
  TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. A CHANGE TO
  FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
  LESSENS LATER IN THE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY DURING
  THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING
  COMMUTE AND IMPACT BOTH TRAVELING AND PLOWING.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING, RISING ABOVE
  FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. EXPECT LONGER COMMUTING TIMES. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

January 2-3, 2014 Storm Final Thoughts (Thursday AM)

Final thoughts are in. I am actually quite excited for this storm to get underway in the area. It has the "look" and "feel" out there of a big storm if there is such a thing. Temperatures have already started falling as I am currently sitting at 31 after a mornin temp of 34 during my drive into work this morning. 

Interaction between the polar and subtropical jets have started, now we just need to wait until the precipitation fills in. Areas up north in PA, NY, CT and MA already have snow falling. This is associated with the polar jet plunging south. 

Light snow showers will overspread the area this afternoon. Snow showers will be sparse at first but will fill in and intensify towards evening. Late evening and overnight snow will really pick up. Winds will also start cranking in response to a rapidly developing low pressure along the easy coast. Temperatures will also plummet to single digits in the north and the teens throughout the rest of the state and even to the coast!

Winds will be whipping the snow around and substantial drifting will occur. In addition, with cold temperatures (highs tomorrow in the low teens) salt will not have the same effect on the roads. It will be a lot harder to have the melting power  in the colder temps. 

Generally, I am looking for 2-4" across extreme SNJ, N DE and NE MD. 4-8" across much of CNJ including the Philly to Trenton area. I also like 6-10" across NNJ into the NYC area. Areas in CT 8-12"

The real wildcard here will be where some of the intense snow bands set up. Weather models have been showing them along the NJ coast (Ocean and Monmouth Counties) and over Long Island. They can set up anywhere, and getting stuck under them can raise snow amounts 2-4"

In any case, be safe and stay alert for warnings. I will be updating throughout the day! 

January 2-3, 2014 Storm Potential

Well, here we are. Back to tracking exciting snowstorms! This one actually has me pretty excited. Not only at the potential snow impact, but for the fact that following the storm, we are looking at the coldest temperatures in the area since 1994. I am trying to think back that far, and think I can remember that. If my memory serves correct, we had an snow to rain event that was followed by a very powerful cold front that dropped many areas to near zero and highs were only in the single digits to teens. I can remember it well because we had about 8-10" of snow, followed by a period of heavy rain and then everything froze. We were able to ride our bikes across the top of the snow. We had a blast for a week (we were out of school for the week because of the temperatures). These are temps expected (from the EURO model) for Saturday Night (during the Eagles game)

So, its going to get cold after some snow....but how much? Well, thats the question. We have a pretty dynamic storm setting up, with a lot of moving pieces. While the models have been hinting at the potential storm for some time, we are now getting closer to a point where the models are able to ingest much better data. For our storms, data is best taken when the pieces of the storm come closer to the United States. Obviously, that is where we have all of our sensors, observers, weather balloons, etc. We are getting to that period tonight and tomorrow morning.

You may hear the terms Miller A and Miller B storms over the course of the week. This will be the type of storm we will be dealing with. Either, the storm will be coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the coast (Miller A) or will be diving into Ohio and then redeveloping along the East Coast (Miller B). Its unclear at this time which type we will be dealing with, but both can have significant impacts for our area. Miller A storms tend to affect a larger area ( entire east coast) while the Miller B storms will only impact those areas where redevelopment takes place and north. Both are capable of delivering a very big punch. Obviously, track, type, timing, etc will all play crucial factors to the final outcome. For now, I am expecting a plowable snow event (greater than 3") for the area. This will be for the period Thursday thru Friday. As models continue to evolve to a solution, I will continually update. The GFS and Euro models have both shown significant storms this afternoon. However, I am going to wait to see if they can get some consistency over the next few model runs. Until then, we are looking at a potential storm. Potential or not, this one has me pretty excited! Buckle Up!

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Evening Update 12/16/13)

No major changes on the model runs today. Snow spreads into the region between 4-7am and will likely be out of the area come early afternoon. No real major changes to the accumulations. Shore areas may start as snow, but likely will change over to rain rather quickly with no accumulation.  I am liking 1-2" for essentially the lower half of Jersey (South of Burlington / Ocean Counties) in areas where it snows. Northern Jersey (North of Mercer/Monmouth) could see 2-4". 

There is also some modeling that is showing another wave moving through tomorrow night for the southern half of NJ. This could potentially drop another coating up to 1" for some areas if it materializes. 

Also, another thing I cannot rule out is the fact that Clippers often times come in moisture starved and can really under perform. Our best accumulations come from a Clipper that moves in, hits the ocean and intensifies, dropping measurable snowfalls. This will not be the case with this system. This will be a quick moving system and with no blocking downstream, it will fly through. So, that's another thing I will be watching. 

For those of you who do not like snow, in 36 hours our temperatures will be moderating to more normal temperatures. Then, this weekend, we will be looking at highs in the 50's. In addition, winter officially starts this weekend. Colder temperatures will return around the Christmas time. 

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Update 12/16/13 morning)

All models are showing a clipper moving into the area tomorrow morning bringing another round of snow for the area. This will be primarily an accumulating snow for areas north of S NJ - Philly line. Our area can expect probably on the order of 1-3" with 1" being in the lower areas and more as you go north. Areas north of Newark into the Lower Hudson Valley and CT could potentially be looking at 2-4". This will be another quick moving storm. Precipitation breaks out over the morning hours, and will wrap up during the afternoon.

Interesting tidbit on the noontime NAM model run, still has a little area that pops up tomorrow night as a second wave moves in, which focuses precipitation over S NJ. They could possible pick up another 1-2" down there assuming temperatures cooperate.

Once this passes through, temperatures will moderate through the rest of the week. Towards the end of the week and the weekend, we may have highs into the 50's over the C NJ area. Temperatures do look to once again get colder around Christmas.

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat

On the heels of a very good week for the snow lovers, we begin this week with a clipper threat heading our way for Tuesday. This will once again be a quick hitting storm, but will drop some accumulating snow in our area. Snow looks to move in during the late morning hours and then will be out by the evening. Models are also showing another disturbance that may move in overnight Tuesday and bring some more snow showers to the area. Generally speaking, this event will be a E PA, NJ, S NY up through the Northeast. More to come on this! Generally looking at a 1-3" / 2-4" type event.

Tuesday 12/10/13 Update

Models today have continued the general theme of a snowy Tuesday for the PHL - NYC corridor. All guidance is showing a plowable event for the area. Another common theme among the models is the formation of a rather robust band of snow. While this band of snow is showing up on models, and will be a driving force to greater accumulations, it will be something that will have to be nowcasted tomorrow closer to the event. Where this band sets up will be the "winners" in the snow accumulation. As of now, this line is forecasted per guidance to setup over our area. This is the reason why the Delaware River locations from PHL to Trenton is in a warning and not an advisory like the rest of the area. Needless to say, it will have to be something that I will be watching tomorrow. While the forecast is saying 4-6" for the area, if we do not end up under the band, we will probably have advisory level snows (2-4"). After the snows from yesterday, we can see what kind of accumulations you can get under one of those bands. Wilmington, DE to PHL to Southern NJ had a broad area of 6-10" of snow under that band that broke out. The moral of the story here is, we will have a general area of 2-4" snows, but getting hit by one of the bands of snow will increase those amounts, and that will have to be nowcasted tomorrow. In any event, precipitation type should not be a question. It will be getting colder as the storm progresses (as another round of cold pushes in) so we are looking at a solid snow event. This will be the type of snow that will stick around through the night and cause travel headaches since it will be blowing around and minimal melting will take place (sans areas that are treated). Start time looks like mid to late morning through the area. It will start from the SW and move NE. It will be a quick hitter and more than likely be winding down by the evening.

As always, more to come via twitter and facebook!

Tuesday 12/10 Winter Weather Event

The C NJ area has now changed over to rain, bringing to a close the frozen precipitation aspect of the early season surprise. Many areas exceeded snowfall amounts, and areas not expected to receive snow got a nice surprise (unless you dislike snow). So, what happened? Well, for starters, the cold high pressure that had cold air over the region prior to the precipitation start was much more stubborn than modeled. The High pressure to the north did not budge, and the over-running warm air caused some mesoscale banding to set up with an area of very significant snows. Anyone watching the Eagles game yesterday saw first hand the tenacity of the falling snow. This part of the storm was not picked up by the major global models. Instead, it was picked up by the very short term HRRR model which had this nailed from Sunday morning. So, once again, models are not gospel and there is always room for now-casting events. Luckily, with warning systems, social media and other means, warnings can get out much faster for alerting citizens. In any case, many areas received 6"+ in the greater Philly area. 

As this storm winds down, we turn our attention to Tuesday. Once again, a storm will move in bringing the area another chance at some snow. This storm will move in around noon and will be out of the area by late evening. It will be a quick hitter, but areas can generally look to pick up 2-4"  with some areas getting a little more with any areas that get hit with a heavier snow band. This will have some impacts on the evening rush hour. Once this storm moves out, we will be entrenched into a cold pattern for the foreseeable future. 

Our next shot at a storm will come this weekend, towards the end. The Euro model is showing a low pressure which will head to the east coast. Its movement from there is still unknown, but will be watched over the next couple of days. 

Thanks for the many observations that were tweeted or facebooked. Feel free to send photos / tweets etc and I will retweet them or share them out to everyone! 

Tonight / Sunday

While temperatures were fairly warm this morning, a cold front has pushed through. Temperatures have been steadily falling all day and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, precipitation is pushing into the area and may be around through early Saturday morning. The rain / snow line is currently around Mt. Pocono, PA and pushing SE. Will it make it down far enough to the area to perhaps see some frozen precipitation? We will have to watch and see how it moves over the next couple hours. I have a feeling we may see a bit. Areas in NW NJ will stand the best chances for a changeover. I am not expecting any accumulations down here.

Once this storm pushes out, all eyes will turn to Sunday. A lot of talk has been made about a significant ice storm. While this will be the case for C PA, C MD, WV, W VA, we will only start as frozen precipitation before turning over to a cold rain. How long the cold air stays in place before being nudged out will be the question. For now, I think we see a start of snow which will change over to sleet and freezing rain and then rain overnight. I do think we may be able to sneak an inch or two of snow out before the changeover. After that storm pushes out, we will be heading into a rather cold period. 

More to come throughout the night on the rain snow line and more thoughts on Sunday

Tuesday / Wednesday Update

Models have been pretty consistent over the past day in regards to Wednesdays storm. Its looking like precipitation will actually make its way into the area around 7pm on Tuesday Night and be around until Wednesday Night before finally pushing out. This is looking like an all rain event, and we could get a healthy dosing. 1-3" generally across the area can be expected. The low pressure track, as shown on both the NAM model and GFS model show a track right over Philadelphia and Trenton to the NNE. With this track, we will have to watch for a potential dry slot to set up around our area, which could lead to a decrease in the amount of rain.

Once the storm pushes out, it will set up another round of cold air to move in. Thanksgiving will be cold and windy. The Macys Thanksgiving Day Parade will be interesting with the winds and the floats. More to come and any changes will be noted!

A Look Towards Wednesday

An Arctic front moved through last night and has put a chill over the area. This will continue today and tomorrow before all eyes shift towards the storm Wednesday.

Model consensus is building, and the general idea now is that a significant storm will move up the coast very late Tuesday into Wednesday. With most storms that move into our area, this one will also have some aspects that will need to be monitored going into Tuesday Night. As the low pressure moves along the Gulf Coast, it will interact with a disturbance moving across Canada. The exact timing of the interaction (phase) will determine where the low pressure begins to come up the coast. The earlier, the further west (warmer, more precip); and the later, further east (colder, less precip). As of now, my general thoughts are that the entire PHL- NYC corridor sees rain, with a possible changeover at the very end (no accumulation). The real question as far as snow goes, is for areas in the mountains north and west of us. There could be a significant dumping of snow in the much higher elevations.

I will be watching and updating on each model run via twitter and facebook and I will probably update my blog during the late evening and morning times. For now, sit back and drink a winter beer and enjoy the cold air!

Buckle Up!

Earlier in the week, I mentioned how we were heading into a roller coaster and we have done just that. We started out earlier this week in the upper 60's and temps crashed. Today and tomorrow will be in the 50's. Sunday and Monday will feature some of the coldest high temps this season! 

Once we get to Monday, all eyes will turn towards the Thanksgiving holiday. Overnight weather models have shown better agreement in regards to a developing storm potential. Thanksgiving is one of the heaviest travel days in the US, so extra attention should be payed to the situation. 

At this point, it will be a rather "thread the  needle" type event that we are so used to. As of now, low pressure moves up from the Carolina coast. Rain will move in and then transition over to snow possibly. Shore areas will have rain and winds to contend with. 

This will also be a quick moving system with no blocking to keep the storm at a crawl. It's a rather progressive and quick hitting type storm. This will once again be a storm where one area will be raining and 30 miles away could be getting puked on by snow. 

In any case, it's got my interest and I will be watching the model runs. As always, updates will be forwarded!

Temperature Roller Coaster Upcoming

From high temperatures in the upper 30's and low 40's this past week to highs in the upper 60's today and tomorrow, we are in the midst of a weather roller coaster. What goes up, must come down, and we will be facing temperatures plummeting on Tuesday. Towards the middle of the week, temperatures will come up a little, before falling again late next weekend. There are no chances of snow in the coming week, so buckle up and enjoy the ride!

First Shot At Some Snow Flakes

a cold front will move through the area tonight, and will bring it some rain and snow showers. Yes, it looks like we may see our first flakes fly of the season tomorrow morning. Both the NAM and GFS models are showing a period of showers moving through during the daytime hours tomorrow. I expect zero accumulation, but I would not be surprised at all to see some flakes flying as the cold air moves in. We will then have two days of colder air with temperatures in the low 40's for Tuesday and Wednesday.

I think we are going to continue along this very transient pattern for the remainder of November. We will have a day or two of cooler air, then average temps and the cycle will continue. I am also think there will be little chance of an accumulating snowfall through the end of November. As always, I will keep you updated on any chances.

Stormy Day On Tap?

Finally, we will be able to push this warm and humid airmass out of here today. A cold front is pushing east today and will bring with it much relief from the humid airmass. Along with the frontal passage, will be heavy rains, winds and isolated tornadoes. Once the front passes through, we will once again have temperatures in the low 70's with low humidity!

SPC values today:

Severe Weather:

Tornadoes:

Winds:

October Update

Wow, feels like forever since I have posted on here. It has been a very boring stretch in the world of weather, and this stretch looks to continue. We will have a return of warmer temps this week with many days from Wednesday through Sunday at or above 80 degrees. Still, little excitement besides a chance of thunderstorms will dominate the weather.

The tropics have also been very quiet. Really not much going on that is going to impact us. We do have tropical storm Jerry out in the Atlantic, but is expected to have no impact to any part of the US (or anywhere else for that matter).

Anyways, just checking in and keeping a presence during some downtime here weather wise.

Flash Flood Watches Posted For Today

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106-012000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0007.130801T1400Z-130802T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON...
WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
342 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...
  NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN
  NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...
  GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...
  NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND
  WARREN. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...CARBON...DELAWARE...EASTERN
  CHESTER...EASTERN MONTGOMERY...LEHIGH...LOWER BUCKS...MONROE...
   NORTHAMPTON...PHILADELPHIA...UPPER BUCKS...WESTERN CHESTER
  AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY.

* FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
  EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY. WHILE GENERAL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE
  ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES, SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS REACHING
  THREE TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL
  SHOULD START IN PENNSYLVANIA AND MARYLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND
  THEN SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
  THE AFTERNOON.

* EXPECT POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
  DRAINAGE AREAS WITH A GREATER IMPACT ON COMMUTING AS WE MOVE
  THROUGH TODAY. SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD FLOOD,
  ESPECIALLY IF SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAD HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY
  EXPERIENCE IT AGAIN TODAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

KRUZDLO/GIGI

Todays Update

Heavy snow has encompassed much of Central NJ. This is an impressive storm! I left the house at 630am and the temperature was 40 degrees. In about 2 hours time, the temp dropped to 33 degrees, heavy snow has moved in and there is a coating on the ground. These heavy snowfall rates will have to continue to keep the accumulated snow so far. The longer the heavy snow stays around, the better for accumulations on the pavement. It does appear that heavy snow will be the norm today. The storm has pushed to the coast where it will intensify. With intensification comes heavy snow bands, and winds. A bad combination for those that like power. As the storm intensifies, there is also a better than average shot of thundersnow across the area. Late morning through evening would be prime for this!

Heavy snow will continue and eventually tapper off this evening into the night. Updates as usual on twitter @townerswxpage and facebook Towner's Weather PAGE. Enjoy!

Monday/Tuesday Update

Before the model runs tonight come in, just wanted to drop a note and let everyone know todays trends keep a fairly decent storm across the area. In fact, it may be a rather snowy day Monday. The bad news, most of the heaviest precipitation will be falling during the day time. A March sun angle and borderline temperatures is not a good combination for accumulations. So, it will more than likely be snowing, but it will not be accumulating. Temperatures will be in the middle 30's. We are still 36+ hours to go, so start time and max precipitation time can still be worked out.

More updates to come on this tonight and tomorrow.