January 2-3, 2014 Storm Potential

Well, here we are. Back to tracking exciting snowstorms! This one actually has me pretty excited. Not only at the potential snow impact, but for the fact that following the storm, we are looking at the coldest temperatures in the area since 1994. I am trying to think back that far, and think I can remember that. If my memory serves correct, we had an snow to rain event that was followed by a very powerful cold front that dropped many areas to near zero and highs were only in the single digits to teens. I can remember it well because we had about 8-10" of snow, followed by a period of heavy rain and then everything froze. We were able to ride our bikes across the top of the snow. We had a blast for a week (we were out of school for the week because of the temperatures). These are temps expected (from the EURO model) for Saturday Night (during the Eagles game)

So, its going to get cold after some snow....but how much? Well, thats the question. We have a pretty dynamic storm setting up, with a lot of moving pieces. While the models have been hinting at the potential storm for some time, we are now getting closer to a point where the models are able to ingest much better data. For our storms, data is best taken when the pieces of the storm come closer to the United States. Obviously, that is where we have all of our sensors, observers, weather balloons, etc. We are getting to that period tonight and tomorrow morning.

You may hear the terms Miller A and Miller B storms over the course of the week. This will be the type of storm we will be dealing with. Either, the storm will be coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the coast (Miller A) or will be diving into Ohio and then redeveloping along the East Coast (Miller B). Its unclear at this time which type we will be dealing with, but both can have significant impacts for our area. Miller A storms tend to affect a larger area ( entire east coast) while the Miller B storms will only impact those areas where redevelopment takes place and north. Both are capable of delivering a very big punch. Obviously, track, type, timing, etc will all play crucial factors to the final outcome. For now, I am expecting a plowable snow event (greater than 3") for the area. This will be for the period Thursday thru Friday. As models continue to evolve to a solution, I will continually update. The GFS and Euro models have both shown significant storms this afternoon. However, I am going to wait to see if they can get some consistency over the next few model runs. Until then, we are looking at a potential storm. Potential or not, this one has me pretty excited! Buckle Up!