January 22-24 2016 Storm Friday Morning Update

A quick morning update. Blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of the area from DC/Baltimore/Philly up to NYC. Other areas are in Winter Storm warnings. Don't get caught up in terminology, blizzard adds in some serious winds causing decreased visibilities. Both should be taken very serious. Flood warnings are also issued for coastal areas due to the complications from those strong winds and tidal flooding. This will be a VERY serious threat to the coast.

Snow will over spread the region tonight and get rather heavy towards morning. Tomorrow, heavy snow will rule the day. This is a very potent storm system. The severe weather outbreak along the Gulf states yesterday and lightning strikes was a prime indicator of this. That's a very good sign of a powerful system. As this storm is so dynamic, thunder snow will be a good bet around the region tomorrow. Already numerous places in KY and TN have reported such. Thundersnow will have to be a now-cast event tomorrow. The whole region will have the possibility. 

In addition, my accumulations still look good. I am not into changing them an awful lot, and truth be told, I still very much like my map. Accumulations will vary though in those areas. There will be some very significant snow bands developing tomorrow that will spread snows 1-3"/hr under them. Some areas will get them, while some others will miss out. They will be moving throughout the day, so chances are you, at some point, will come in contact with one. Those will really drive up accumulations.

Last aspect, I mentioned coastal winds, but the winds will be bad over inland sections as well. Part of the blizzard warnings is a verification of winds at or exceeding 35mph for three hours. That's a lot of wind, and it will be like that for the majority of the day. Couple that with that thick wet snow and it's a recipe for disaster. 

I will be back throughout the day in my Facebook page and Twitter pushing info out. Stay safe and enjoy! 

Frontal Passage Tomorrow Night

High temperatures will make it into the low 40's tomorrow before a cold front will push through and drop our temperatures through the 30's and into the 20's tomorrow night. With the cold front passage, our area will have a chance for some rain / snow showers. No accumulation is expected, but don't be surprised to see some snow flakes flying around tomorrow night. Areas in NE PA and NW NJ have the best chance of getting around 1" of snowfall. 

After the frontal passage, temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to reach freezing. Thursday and Friday will be a bit warmer and we will then have a chance of some rain for the early part of the weekend. Still watching for our first significant chance of some snow, which does not appear to be heading our way this week. 

Hazardous Weather Outlook from the NWS (north of 195 in NJ): 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
412 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-122115-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
LOWER BUCKS-
412 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLIPPERY
TRAVEL IS OVER THE POCONOS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED.....C NJ

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-180700-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN
DELMARVA THROUGH THE LOCAL PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA FOR
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY A TRACE.

* TIMING...THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
  TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. A CHANGE TO
  FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
  LESSENS LATER IN THE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY DURING
  THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING
  COMMUTE AND IMPACT BOTH TRAVELING AND PLOWING.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING, RISING ABOVE
  FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. EXPECT LONGER COMMUTING TIMES. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Wednesday Afternoon Update)

First and foremost, our storm is really taking a toll in the Southeastern US. Snows and ice are really hitting an area hard that is not normally accustomed to this. I can only hope everyone down there follows their forecasts and have plans done accordingly.

For our area up here, we are about 10 hours away from the start of our storm. As you can see, we are dealing with a very large storm. We can see a direct influence from the Gulf Of Mexico feeding directly into our low pressure. This will be a very intense and large storm. This will also probably be our longest duration event for the year.

My going thinking has been 4-8" for the area and then a switch over to a mix and possibly rain. I do think we switch back to snow as the CCB (Cold Conveyor Belt) swings through the area. The CCB is the back end of the "comma" head of the storm. As the storm pushes through, this will swing over the area. How much additional will that add? Well, like everything else with this storm, it depends.

I will say, the models have been all over the place with this very large and complex storm. My 4-8" is my best guess trying to make sense and from experience with these types of storms from prior years. Growing up in NJ, most of the large intense storms bring a period of a transition to a mix or rain. As the storm moves east of the area, we go back to snow till the end of the storm. While the model guidance has been less than stellar, I do hold out hope for the short range models, the HRRR and the RUC models which will be in their range later on tonight.

While my call is 4-8" with a transition, the confidence of that is low to medium. I think we are going to see some very impressive snowfall rates through the area. We have a storm that is going to dump between 1-2" of precipitation. The question is going to be figuring out, how much of that is snow, mix, rain. If it were all snow, we would be looking at 12"+ easily. Now, how fast do we transition? Do we transition? does it stay as sleet? freezing rain? rain? Do we go back to snow? What kind of precipitation rates do we have? These questions will all be answered starting in 10 hours. Until then, I am going with the 4-8" as my conservative estimate, with a strong feeling that the totals may end up higher than that.

So, while those are the accumulation questions, there will be other questions that will also need to be answered. I said that we are dealing with a very large and dynamic storm. Even if warm air moves in, and the surface temps get above freezing, if we have a period of very heavy precipitation, we can remain snow if the upper atmosphere is still below freezing. This will all have to be tracked as well with the storm. Obviously, if the rates are not that impressive, or the upper atmosphere and surface are above freezing, we will have rain. Speaking of dynamic......I fully expect there to be a good number of reports of thundersnow tomorrow. Maybe even as early as the early morning hours.

So, the specifics.

Snow moves in around midnight to 2am. It will snow very heavily in the early morning hours, with the possibility of thundersnow. Accumulations by the time we wake up will be 3-6". I expect to pick up another inch or two and then a transition to a mix will occur as the storm moves closer and some warmer air floods the upper atmosphere. I do think though we will remain sleet for a while. During the afternoon, precipitation may actually stop or become very drizzly. To the evening hours, I expect the CCB to intensify and move through dropping more intense snowfall before ending towards midnight. Exactly how much will depend on how the low pressure bombs out, and how much moisture can be thrown back over the area.

Anyways, those are my thoughts and concerns as of now. As always, I will be posting on facebook and twitter throughout the day and night.

Stay Safe!

Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Tuesday AM Update)

Overnight model runs have concluded and now I am looking forward towards today noon model runs. Last night, I explained on facebook where we were before the model runs. Overnight, the NAM was less amped, the GFS moved a bit west (but overall had a much better organization). The EURO was pretty steadfast on its track showing a front end thump of snow and then a transition to a mix and possibly rain. Today the models continued down the same roads and the NAM, GFS and Canadian models all bring in a period of sleet/mix/rain to CNJ.

With that, it has become more and more clear that our area will see some transition over to sleet/mix/rain etc. The projected track (on any of the models) will make it very difficult for us to remain all snow. Areas NW of 95 should do really well and will cash in with widespread areas of 12"+. Those areas would be places like Reading, the Lehigh Valley, NE PA and possibly NW NJ. I think areas down in CNJ are looking at a nice front end thump of snow 4-8" (possibly more) and then a transition over to sleet/mix and then possibly rain. There could also be a change back to all snow on the tail end. Coastal areas, there is a full moon expected as well Thursday, and with a developing low pressure coming up the coast, spells disaster for coastal flooding. 

In any case, a shift in the models by 50 miles east could make quite a difference. Same with a shift 50 miles west. With that, those are my general ideas. There will be more updates to come. We are still 36 hours away so there is some time for some wiggles. If you know anyone down in the NE Georgia, Central SC and NC areas, they will be receiving an epic ice storm. Make sure those down there are prepared and follow their latest forecasts down there. We still have people up this way without power from our storm last Wednesday. Also, areas not accustomed to snow could be in for some surprises as well (South Central VA, W NC etc). Also, DC looks to actually be in a pretty decent spot up our way for a pretty decent storm as well. 

More to come

A Look Ahead Into Wednesday / Thursday

With this clipper over for today, the next focus will be on a developing storm for the Wednesday - Thursday timeframe. The Canadian and EURO models have been hinting at a low pressure tracking from the SE coast, up to the Outer Banks and then east of Jersey to the "benchmark" (or just inside). The benchmark is a noted area, 40N 70W, where most of our significant snowstorms move through especially for New England). Also, this looks to be a much slower moving storm than we have had this year and will also effect a larger area.

The GFS has come around to the idea and has the storm, but has it further into the ocean and only scraping the East Coast. Tonight, the NAM also shows the storm, although we are at hour 84 on the 84 hour model (not the greatest at this range) but I am encouraged to see it there, and very amped up. There will obviously be some questions with track, intensity and so forth with this storm, but this is definitely one that has my attention. This will effect a large area, from the Gulf States to the Southeast to the Mid Atlantic through New England.

So, time to watch the continuity from run to run and see further cohesion in coming up with a track. There will be many updates coming, so please follow along on twitter and facebook!

February 5th Event (Monday PM Update)

As we wind down from our storm today, we can now turn out attention to the upcoming threat on Wednesday. Last week I made a post about a very active pattern unfolding over the area, and that seems to be the case. Yes, we have a lot of threats, and yes, we have some shots at snow. I will however, take it one storm at a time. I spoke of the change in any variable from a previous storm having an impact on storms following. Case in point, the next storm up, Wednesday.

Two days ago, this was looking like a washout. Now, with some fresh snowcover down, there is talk of a couple inches of snow and then a switch over to a mix and then to rain. Places now in NW NJ and NE PA could get a whole lot of snow and never transition over now. So, I am going to be curious to see how the models interpret this tonight and tomorrow. I have a sneaking suspicion that we could be in for a ice event, especially from Trenton north. 

As of now, Snow moves in late tomorrow night and will accumulate. Precipitation will transition over to a mix from south to north. It will make it to about rt 80 where north of there is out best bet to remain all snow. In addition, the mix will also change over to rain from south to north, and how far up that goes will be the question. This will be another quick moving storm, and will probably be out of here again by the late afternoon Wednesday. More to come on this storm. 

Monday 2/3/14 Storm (Sunday AM thoughts)

First, Phil saw his shadow this morning at Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, PA. As the legend goes, this means 6 more weeks of winter. As reality goes, Phil is batting about 39% which bodes well for those that want this winter over.

On to more important things, we have a storm heading our way which will move in during the overnight hours. With temperatures today approaching 50 degrees, we will be relying on a cold front that will be pushing through and dropping temperatures. How fast this can get through the area and how fast temperatures can fall will be determining factors on how much total accumulation we will have. The fact that the storm pushes in during the early morning hours will help the snow cause.

As of now, I think precipitation moves in between 5am and 7am across the C NJ area. Precipitation may start out as a mix but I think it will quickly transition over to snow. The problem we will have is the upper atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow, but the surface may not be. So, until the surface cools enough to support snow, we will be looking at a mix. In addition, once the heavier precipitation moves in, that too will help to keep the column cool enough to support all snow.

As of now, I do think another substantial storm is bearing down on the area. There is two different ways I am looking at this storm. As I am thinking now, with a period of mixing to start, I generally like 3-6" from Philly through Trenton to New Brunswick with 2-4" to the north of there. If the cold front can push in and our temperatures crash a little faster, 4-8" from Philly to Trenton to New Brunswick can be expected. I still think north of there for NNJ, NE PA and NYC will see 2-4"/3-5"

Other areas- NE MD - N DE 2-4" if mixing to start 3-6" if all snow
                    DC - Baltimore, S DE 1-3" but there will be serious mixing concerns.

Tuesday / Wednesday Storm (Monday Afternoon Update)

I am actually quite impressed with this storm, and we are still 18 hours from go time. Models have been very consistent with this storm, so confidence is pretty high with this one. One thing that has been showing up on the models once again today is the effects of the banding that will setup. To illustrate that, here are two models depicting banding. Now, where exactly they set up will be the mystery. I am also very confident they will setup across NJ. The first model here is the RGEM model (Canada) showing a band setting up across central areas of NJ (yellow stripe). 

The second is the NAM (American)  model. Now, this is a 1 hour shot of a potential band (yes, that's 3.5" per hour) in the speck in Monmouth / Ocean County. Other areas are still very significant 1 hour rates:

So, as you can see, we are dealing with a VERY potent system. Models have been depicting over and over again for about .5-.75" inches water over the area, so that would translate to a good snowfall of 6-10" With that, I am raising my expected accumulations to 6-10" as a base. I am also going to say, if you get stuck under a band, you will be looking at 8-12" of snow. I even think there could be some areas along coastal sections of NJ (Monmouth Ocean Counties) that could go over 12" of snow. With winds gusting as well in the 20mph range, blowing snow will be a concern. I also think there will be locations reporting thundersnow tomorrow evening into the night as the low pressure really bombs out in the Atlantic. 

I will also preface this by saying, when we have strong lifting creating bands of snow, there will be other areas that will have very light precipitation. So, I think there will be a sharp cutoff to areas in NW NJ and NE PA. I truly believe this will be a I-95 special from DC to Boston. 

As always, updates will be coming on facebook and twitter. I will post a blog posting after the nightime model runs as well. 

Tuesday / Wednesday Storm (Monday Noon Update)

24 hours ago, we were looking at being on the northern fringes of a developing clipper. Originally, we were looking at a nice light snowfall on the order of 1-3". Over the past 24 hours, this has grown into a rather potent system which will bring another plowable snowfall to the area. The developing clipper will now make it to the coast where it will rapidly deepen and throw back a decent amount of snows from DC to Boston. It will be a fairly quick moving storm (12 hours) but it will drop some fairly impressive snows. as of now, look like the snow will start around 1pm Tuesday and last until around 1am Wednesday.

An Arctic front will move through tonight keeping temperatures in the 20's tomorrow. This should be an all snow event, with no chance of mixing. Snow will work in around 1pm and will probably start sticking pretty quickly. Snow will really start picking up during the afternoon. Travel will quickly become treacherous and rush hour tomorrow will be pretty nasty. Snow will continue through the evening into the night and will last until the early morning hours on Wednesday. As of now, I am looking at 4-6" of snow area wide, with potential for more in any banding that sets up.

Any time we have a developing low pressure along the coast, we will have to watch the exact area where it develops. This will coincide with where the best precipitation will develop. As of now, it is modeled to set up in a prime area for snows. This is a prime I-95 storm. Depending how fast the low pressure can develop, heavy snow bands can enter the area, along with thundersnow. Of course, exact development area will dictate where those bands set up.

A quick update on models. Last night, models began to really show the potential. All models were showing a decent event, minus the NAM model. This morning, the NAM began to see it as well, and now all models are showing a decent storm. The Euro model last night was showing a lighter event, with mostly 2" up to about 195 in NJ and less above that. Will be interested to see what it shows at noon today. The Euro is the last hold out.

As always, more to come. I will update again in the afternoon and night!

January 2-3, 2014 Storm Final Thoughts (Thursday AM)

Final thoughts are in. I am actually quite excited for this storm to get underway in the area. It has the "look" and "feel" out there of a big storm if there is such a thing. Temperatures have already started falling as I am currently sitting at 31 after a mornin temp of 34 during my drive into work this morning. 

Interaction between the polar and subtropical jets have started, now we just need to wait until the precipitation fills in. Areas up north in PA, NY, CT and MA already have snow falling. This is associated with the polar jet plunging south. 

Light snow showers will overspread the area this afternoon. Snow showers will be sparse at first but will fill in and intensify towards evening. Late evening and overnight snow will really pick up. Winds will also start cranking in response to a rapidly developing low pressure along the easy coast. Temperatures will also plummet to single digits in the north and the teens throughout the rest of the state and even to the coast!

Winds will be whipping the snow around and substantial drifting will occur. In addition, with cold temperatures (highs tomorrow in the low teens) salt will not have the same effect on the roads. It will be a lot harder to have the melting power  in the colder temps. 

Generally, I am looking for 2-4" across extreme SNJ, N DE and NE MD. 4-8" across much of CNJ including the Philly to Trenton area. I also like 6-10" across NNJ into the NYC area. Areas in CT 8-12"

The real wildcard here will be where some of the intense snow bands set up. Weather models have been showing them along the NJ coast (Ocean and Monmouth Counties) and over Long Island. They can set up anywhere, and getting stuck under them can raise snow amounts 2-4"

In any case, be safe and stay alert for warnings. I will be updating throughout the day! 

January 2-3, 2014 Storm (Wednesday Noon Update)

First, HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Well, here we are once again with a very challenging forecast which will more than likely go down to another nowcasting event. There are a number of moving parts to this storm, and the overall strength will not be known for some time. We have an interaction that will occur between the subtropical jet (currently the precipitation along the Gulf States and the Polar jet (currently the precipitation through the midwest into Detroit). As seen here:

As the storm progresses, we will see an interaction occur. When, and how quickly these parts interact and eventually phase, that will determine how much snow we are looking at. The NAM model paints an earlier phase and a bigger storm for our area, and the GFS model paints a later phase, and as a result, a bigger storm over New England. In any case, the GFS model still paints a plowable event for our area.

GFS model- Showing a quick intesification for our area, but moves out rather quickly in the next frame and hits NE.

1am Friday:

 Friday 7am: (notice brunt of the precip off shore and over eastern NE

NAM MODEL

Quicker phase, really hammers our area

 Still has moderate to heavy snow over our area at 7am Friday (notice our area has the brunt of the precip):

So, the big question will be when does this phase occur. And unfortunately, it will have to be now casted tomorrow night. Either case, we are looking at a storm which will drop a couple inches. Here is where I am now, if we get that earlier phase, I think our area would be looking at 6-10" of snow. If we get that later phase, I think we will be looking at 2-4 (SNJ) to 3-6 (CNJ-NNJ). Its going to be another thread the needle event, with another tough forecast. Don't be surprised to hear amounts going up and down by the media stations. I do believe that Watches and or Warnings will be issued for MT Holly's forecast area this afternoon. In addition, Areas just to our north, we may actually have the B word watches issued. Winds will definitely be a factor, and if they can get high enough, we may meet that criteria ("Blizzard conditions" technically occur when strong winds (at least 35 mph) combine with either falling snow or snow on the ground to reduce visibilities to 1/4 mile or less for at least three hours.)

The other dangerous part of this storm will be the temperatures. We are dealing with a polar airmass with this, so even though the morning tomorrow will be cool, temperatures will plummet tomorrow night and it could infact get down to the teens and be snowing, 20's all the way down to the coast. The danger with that, is #1, its cold and #2, salt does not work as well in much colder temperatures. #3, snow ratios will be higher (usually 1" water = 10" of snow). We could be looking at 15:1, 20:1 or higher! In any case, I am tuned and am looking forward to seeing this come together!

January 2-3, 2014 Storm Potential

Well, here we are. Back to tracking exciting snowstorms! This one actually has me pretty excited. Not only at the potential snow impact, but for the fact that following the storm, we are looking at the coldest temperatures in the area since 1994. I am trying to think back that far, and think I can remember that. If my memory serves correct, we had an snow to rain event that was followed by a very powerful cold front that dropped many areas to near zero and highs were only in the single digits to teens. I can remember it well because we had about 8-10" of snow, followed by a period of heavy rain and then everything froze. We were able to ride our bikes across the top of the snow. We had a blast for a week (we were out of school for the week because of the temperatures). These are temps expected (from the EURO model) for Saturday Night (during the Eagles game)

So, its going to get cold after some snow....but how much? Well, thats the question. We have a pretty dynamic storm setting up, with a lot of moving pieces. While the models have been hinting at the potential storm for some time, we are now getting closer to a point where the models are able to ingest much better data. For our storms, data is best taken when the pieces of the storm come closer to the United States. Obviously, that is where we have all of our sensors, observers, weather balloons, etc. We are getting to that period tonight and tomorrow morning.

You may hear the terms Miller A and Miller B storms over the course of the week. This will be the type of storm we will be dealing with. Either, the storm will be coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the coast (Miller A) or will be diving into Ohio and then redeveloping along the East Coast (Miller B). Its unclear at this time which type we will be dealing with, but both can have significant impacts for our area. Miller A storms tend to affect a larger area ( entire east coast) while the Miller B storms will only impact those areas where redevelopment takes place and north. Both are capable of delivering a very big punch. Obviously, track, type, timing, etc will all play crucial factors to the final outcome. For now, I am expecting a plowable snow event (greater than 3") for the area. This will be for the period Thursday thru Friday. As models continue to evolve to a solution, I will continually update. The GFS and Euro models have both shown significant storms this afternoon. However, I am going to wait to see if they can get some consistency over the next few model runs. Until then, we are looking at a potential storm. Potential or not, this one has me pretty excited! Buckle Up!

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Evening Update 12/16/13)

No major changes on the model runs today. Snow spreads into the region between 4-7am and will likely be out of the area come early afternoon. No real major changes to the accumulations. Shore areas may start as snow, but likely will change over to rain rather quickly with no accumulation.  I am liking 1-2" for essentially the lower half of Jersey (South of Burlington / Ocean Counties) in areas where it snows. Northern Jersey (North of Mercer/Monmouth) could see 2-4". 

There is also some modeling that is showing another wave moving through tomorrow night for the southern half of NJ. This could potentially drop another coating up to 1" for some areas if it materializes. 

Also, another thing I cannot rule out is the fact that Clippers often times come in moisture starved and can really under perform. Our best accumulations come from a Clipper that moves in, hits the ocean and intensifies, dropping measurable snowfalls. This will not be the case with this system. This will be a quick moving system and with no blocking downstream, it will fly through. So, that's another thing I will be watching. 

For those of you who do not like snow, in 36 hours our temperatures will be moderating to more normal temperatures. Then, this weekend, we will be looking at highs in the 50's. In addition, winter officially starts this weekend. Colder temperatures will return around the Christmas time. 

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Update 12/16/13 morning)

All models are showing a clipper moving into the area tomorrow morning bringing another round of snow for the area. This will be primarily an accumulating snow for areas north of S NJ - Philly line. Our area can expect probably on the order of 1-3" with 1" being in the lower areas and more as you go north. Areas north of Newark into the Lower Hudson Valley and CT could potentially be looking at 2-4". This will be another quick moving storm. Precipitation breaks out over the morning hours, and will wrap up during the afternoon.

Interesting tidbit on the noontime NAM model run, still has a little area that pops up tomorrow night as a second wave moves in, which focuses precipitation over S NJ. They could possible pick up another 1-2" down there assuming temperatures cooperate.

Once this passes through, temperatures will moderate through the rest of the week. Towards the end of the week and the weekend, we may have highs into the 50's over the C NJ area. Temperatures do look to once again get colder around Christmas.

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat

On the heels of a very good week for the snow lovers, we begin this week with a clipper threat heading our way for Tuesday. This will once again be a quick hitting storm, but will drop some accumulating snow in our area. Snow looks to move in during the late morning hours and then will be out by the evening. Models are also showing another disturbance that may move in overnight Tuesday and bring some more snow showers to the area. Generally speaking, this event will be a E PA, NJ, S NY up through the Northeast. More to come on this! Generally looking at a 1-3" / 2-4" type event.

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15 (Update FRIDAY PM)

So, I have stressed over the past two days about tight gradients. Today, models continued to show that in our area, 40 miles can really make the difference between no accumulations and quite possibly 6-10". We could really see something like Southern Bucks Co, PA with 2" while Northern Bucks County is getting 8" I cannot stress enough how close this will be. There will be some things that will be nowcasted tomorrow that could change things as well. I will be updating frequently throughout the day on facebook and twitter.

Some of the things I will be looking at tomorrow:

1. Miller B type storms (which this is) usually leads to some type of "dry slot". This is an area where there is a break in precipitation. When and where this happens will obviously have an effect.

2. Placement of high pressure in Canada (directly north of us). If it is closer to the Canada/US border, we could see the cold air hold on longer. If it migrates up to Quebec or farther north, we may have an earlier transition to sleet

3. Any banding that develops that can enhance snowfall totals. 

4. Where the primary low pressure dies and where the new one takes over. Either of these things can also effect our area

In any case, on to amounts. 

coastal areas of NJ, I am expecting an almost all rain event. Possibly some snow to start, but quickly to rain

inland from there, SNJ East of the NJ TP up to 195 I expect 1-3" then rain

PHL - Trenton - West of the NJTP 1-3" before turning over to a bit of sleet and then rain

just to the NW of PHL - Trenton- New Brunswick - Newark, NJ 3-6" mix then rain late

Areas of the Lehigh Valley, C PA , NW NJ, Lower Hudson Valley through S CT 6-10"

Central and Northern CT through MASS up through VT, NH and Maine generally 10-14"

These are my thoughts at this time. Tomorrow will be a nowcasting day and any changes can lead to significant changes. 

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15 (Update Thurs PM)

Well, the nighttime model runs are in and......... they paint a MUCH colder scenario. While this scenario is nice to see, it is really a thread the needle type of situation. There is a MASSIVE gradient over about  40 miles from nothing along the coast to 8" along the Delaware River. And while I am in no way calling for that much snow anywhere near this area, it cannot be discounted. A shift in any amount one way or the other can lead to drastically different outcomes.

So, for now, lets take it with a grain of salt. For now, know that this storm will start out as snow Saturday morning. We will more than likely receive an accumulating snow. I still believe that we transition to a mix and then rain, the question will be when. I am not jumping on the snow train yet after one model run, but it will be something to look forward to during the day tomorrow and tomorrow night.

I will be following tomorrow and will have my final thoughts on this tomorrow night.

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15

The area will once again be looking at another storm moving in. This past week, many areas have eclipsed total snows from the last two years combined and we are looking at another storm adding to snow totals. We have a little different setup for this storm, which will make things interesting going into the weekend. We will have a low pressure system moving into the Ohio River Valley which will die off and transfer energy to a new low pressure along the coast. The big questions for our area will be, where does the initial low pressure die off, and where does the new low form. Having a low pressure to your west will spell temperature disaster if it holds on longer than projected, and likewise, if it dies earlier and the new low forms earlier, temperatures can be more favorable for snow. These storms have led to numerous issues that have happened before, and have both worked against us and for us.

As it is modeled now, it appears we will have a period of snow Saturday afternoon and evening before temperatures rise high enough to transition to mixed precipitation and then rain by early Sunday morning. We would be in for a couple inches of snow before the transition. Areas in NE PA, NW NJ, North of NYC and mid to northern area of CT will do very well with this storm. Its the areas south of those that will have the battles going on.

The NAM model has been the warmest of most models and keeps the low pressure tucked into the coastal region, while the EURO and GFS models keep the low pressure about 150-200 miles out into the ocean. The NAM would have a quicker transition to rain while the EURO and GFS will allow for a little more snow. I will be watching to see if any of those models begin to shift toward the other. In any case, all show a start of snow and a couple inch accumulation.

There will be more to come with this over the next two days, so stay tuned and enjoy the cold weather today and tomorrow!

Tuesday 12/10/13 Update

Models today have continued the general theme of a snowy Tuesday for the PHL - NYC corridor. All guidance is showing a plowable event for the area. Another common theme among the models is the formation of a rather robust band of snow. While this band of snow is showing up on models, and will be a driving force to greater accumulations, it will be something that will have to be nowcasted tomorrow closer to the event. Where this band sets up will be the "winners" in the snow accumulation. As of now, this line is forecasted per guidance to setup over our area. This is the reason why the Delaware River locations from PHL to Trenton is in a warning and not an advisory like the rest of the area. Needless to say, it will have to be something that I will be watching tomorrow. While the forecast is saying 4-6" for the area, if we do not end up under the band, we will probably have advisory level snows (2-4"). After the snows from yesterday, we can see what kind of accumulations you can get under one of those bands. Wilmington, DE to PHL to Southern NJ had a broad area of 6-10" of snow under that band that broke out. The moral of the story here is, we will have a general area of 2-4" snows, but getting hit by one of the bands of snow will increase those amounts, and that will have to be nowcasted tomorrow. In any event, precipitation type should not be a question. It will be getting colder as the storm progresses (as another round of cold pushes in) so we are looking at a solid snow event. This will be the type of snow that will stick around through the night and cause travel headaches since it will be blowing around and minimal melting will take place (sans areas that are treated). Start time looks like mid to late morning through the area. It will start from the SW and move NE. It will be a quick hitter and more than likely be winding down by the evening.

As always, more to come via twitter and facebook!