January 22-24 2016 Storm Friday Morning Update

A quick morning update. Blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of the area from DC/Baltimore/Philly up to NYC. Other areas are in Winter Storm warnings. Don't get caught up in terminology, blizzard adds in some serious winds causing decreased visibilities. Both should be taken very serious. Flood warnings are also issued for coastal areas due to the complications from those strong winds and tidal flooding. This will be a VERY serious threat to the coast.

Snow will over spread the region tonight and get rather heavy towards morning. Tomorrow, heavy snow will rule the day. This is a very potent storm system. The severe weather outbreak along the Gulf states yesterday and lightning strikes was a prime indicator of this. That's a very good sign of a powerful system. As this storm is so dynamic, thunder snow will be a good bet around the region tomorrow. Already numerous places in KY and TN have reported such. Thundersnow will have to be a now-cast event tomorrow. The whole region will have the possibility. 

In addition, my accumulations still look good. I am not into changing them an awful lot, and truth be told, I still very much like my map. Accumulations will vary though in those areas. There will be some very significant snow bands developing tomorrow that will spread snows 1-3"/hr under them. Some areas will get them, while some others will miss out. They will be moving throughout the day, so chances are you, at some point, will come in contact with one. Those will really drive up accumulations.

Last aspect, I mentioned coastal winds, but the winds will be bad over inland sections as well. Part of the blizzard warnings is a verification of winds at or exceeding 35mph for three hours. That's a lot of wind, and it will be like that for the majority of the day. Couple that with that thick wet snow and it's a recipe for disaster. 

I will be back throughout the day in my Facebook page and Twitter pushing info out. Stay safe and enjoy! 

Verification From Blizzard 02/08/2013

Quick Verification from the Blizzard. Always room for improvement,

Predicted Amounts from 2/7/2013




Philly south to NE MD: 1-3"
Philly North to 195 3-6"
195 North to 78 6-10"
78- NYC 10-12"
Lower Hudson Valley - RT 91 in CT 12-20"
RT 91 to East Coast 20-30"

Blog Entry From 2/7/2013
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Courtesy NWS: Snowfall Map Blizzard 2/8/13-2/9/13

All In..... Here We Go!

I have been talking over the past couple of days about it all coming down to the phasing. Well, it does. And, what the models have been showing today is an earlier phase, creating a colder solution, more intense storm, and more precipitation. While there is more precipitation, it doesn't mean we escape rain free everywhere. Many areas in Central NJ will wake up to snow tomorrow that will change to rain. Don't fret, this is an overrunning event from the southern low pressure. Although it changes to rain, it will change back to snow during the afternoon hours. This will be due to the phase of the southern and northern storms. The northern storm will be bringing the cold air to the party. Tomorrow night may be pretty wild even down into Philly.

After seeing two bombs on the NAM model, the Euro holding serve, GFS still showing moderate snows and the SREF models trending colder with identical precipitation amounts, its time. Time to go all in and up some amounts. 

From Allentown, PA to Newark (Rt 78) and NYC north, this will be an all snow event. areas south of there will start as snow, go over to a mix and rain, and then back to snow. Tomorrow night will produce heavy snows, possible thundersnow and snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour. A lot of that will be nowcasted, which I will post on twitter and facebook. 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS:

Philly south to NE MD: 1-3"

Philly North to 195 3-6" 

195 North to 78 6-10" 

78- NYC 10-12" 

Lower Hudson Valley - RT 91 in CT 12-20" 

RT 91 to East Coast 20-30"

these are my conservative numbers now. Pretty confident throwing these out there. 

follow laong on twitter and facebook tomorrow for up to the minute updates and things to keep an eye on.

Stay Safe

Oh- and a special shout out to Rose and Susan from BEI, thanks for following!

New England Historic Storm Taking Shape

If there is one thing that is pretty certain here, is that New England is going to get smoked. These estimates of 24-30" of snow are realistic. This is going to be an old fashioned, New England blizzard. For the rest of us, from NYC south, the uncertainty remains king. We are dealing with two separate low pressures. One, a disturbance diving out of Canada towards the East Coast. The other, a low pressure in the Gulf States. These two low pressures will phase, or merge, along the East Coast and move ENE around the "benchmark"

EDIT- I have mentioned the "benchmark" on several posts, but I have probably not done a good job explaining why this is important. The "benchmark" is located at 40N and 70W and the significance is that a large majority of winter storms pass over this area bringing the perfect balance of distance to bring the biggest storms.

So, the questions remain where exactly these two low pressures phase, how phased the evolving storm can intensify, speed of travel and track of the storm. Each model is still showing some different outcomes based on these variables. Each model is also able to pick up on subtle characteristics that are making the forecast very difficult. Overnight, the NAM model had zero snow for Philly. The GFS showed a couple inches for Philly and the Euro was like 6" for Philly. Whats more mind boggling is while Boston is looking at 30", NYC could very well hit 12" of snow, while Philly sits at zero. This is the type of spread we have. Any earlier phase, we could be looking at substantial snows. Any later, or a further east track, we will be looking at showers with next to nothing.

For now, I am going with snow starting very early tomorrow morning (5- 7 am). Late morning we switch to mixed precipitation and rain. Late afternoon we switch back to snow and may get some period of moderate snows. I think from 195 north to NYC, 3-6" can be expected while areas from 195 south to Philly can expect 1-3". This is based on my current thoughts, but confidence is still low on this. By tonight I will issue a final. Places in NW NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley 8-12" can be expected while areas to the east from I87 - I91  12-20" and then from I91-East Coast 20-30".

Please remember for those areas looking to get walloped that this will be a rapidly intensifying storm and the winds will be whipping. There is also a higher than normal chance for thundersnow. Snowfall rates will easily make 1-3"/hour in many locations, if not more. This will be a very intense and dangerous storm.