Recap And The Weekend Ahead

Surface temperatures yesterday during the day really hampered our efforts to get a good accumulating snow. Even when the snow rates increased, it was tough to accumulate due to the surface warmth and the water that had already accumulated on the ground. If we have had that snow a week ago when our highs were in the 20's, we would have had a nice little event. Anyways, time to move on.

I wrote earlier this week about the potential for a storm this weekend. It was being shown on the models a couple days ago, and then went away. Well, the idea of a weekend storm are back. The noon time runs today are showing the potential to be there for our area into the Northeast. These periods of time when multiple storms are showing up on models, it becomes difficult for them to key in on each one. This is one of the reasons why I have felt that it was possible for this weekend, because the positioning of a lot of other elements are present. Sometimes it just takes one storm to conclude before models pick up on the other pieces of energy. 

A quick look at the midday model runs has the GFS showing a very nice coastal storm taking shape of the coast in the southeast moving up the coast (moderate storm). The NAM is similar (although not totally honed in yet) and the Canadian model also shows an event like the NAM. The Euro just came out, and has an event, but much lighter. I have not looked at surface temps on each preceding them, but tomorrow is supposed to be warm. In addition, a arctic trough will be settling in just before or concurrent for the storm. Things may get interesting. 

I will have more to come over the day and a more detailed post tonight. Just be prepared that a significant storm can potentially come to fruition within a couple days. 

Happy Valentines Day to everyone! 

Wednesday 2/13/2013 Morning Update

Look for precipitation to break out around 7pm. Surface temperatures today will be quite warm, so that is going to limit the amount that accumulates on paved surfaces. This will be more of a nuisance event, especially since there will be little accumulation on pavement. Precipitation moves out around midnight, so its a quick hitter. General accumulations from 2-4" across the area, mostly on grassy surfaces. Once you get north and west of Route 80, precipitation really cuts down. 

Still keeping an eye on the weekend, as the potential is still there. Nothing of substance is really showing up, but it will be monitored. 

All In..... Here We Go!

I have been talking over the past couple of days about it all coming down to the phasing. Well, it does. And, what the models have been showing today is an earlier phase, creating a colder solution, more intense storm, and more precipitation. While there is more precipitation, it doesn't mean we escape rain free everywhere. Many areas in Central NJ will wake up to snow tomorrow that will change to rain. Don't fret, this is an overrunning event from the southern low pressure. Although it changes to rain, it will change back to snow during the afternoon hours. This will be due to the phase of the southern and northern storms. The northern storm will be bringing the cold air to the party. Tomorrow night may be pretty wild even down into Philly.

After seeing two bombs on the NAM model, the Euro holding serve, GFS still showing moderate snows and the SREF models trending colder with identical precipitation amounts, its time. Time to go all in and up some amounts. 

From Allentown, PA to Newark (Rt 78) and NYC north, this will be an all snow event. areas south of there will start as snow, go over to a mix and rain, and then back to snow. Tomorrow night will produce heavy snows, possible thundersnow and snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour. A lot of that will be nowcasted, which I will post on twitter and facebook. 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS:

Philly south to NE MD: 1-3"

Philly North to 195 3-6" 

195 North to 78 6-10" 

78- NYC 10-12" 

Lower Hudson Valley - RT 91 in CT 12-20" 

RT 91 to East Coast 20-30"

these are my conservative numbers now. Pretty confident throwing these out there. 

follow laong on twitter and facebook tomorrow for up to the minute updates and things to keep an eye on.

Stay Safe

Oh- and a special shout out to Rose and Susan from BEI, thanks for following!

Another Clipper Moves Through Tonight

Well, for the third straight night, we will have another clipper moving through. Currently, the clipper is moving through Chicago and Indiana and will be making a drive east to the coast. I like our chances here to see a couple inches in Central NJ. We are in a great spot as it relates to clippers. The low pressure associated with the clipper will move just to our south. Usually, a path from the low out about 75-100 miles on either side is prime for the highest accumulations with a clipper. We are sitting within that (as modeled). The NAM model would bring us 2-3" while the GFS is more of a C-2" I would expect Advisories to be issued again for the overnight.

There may be another shot at a weak disturbance moving through Wednesday morning, and then I think clippermania comes to a stop. Our weather may get pretty boring for a couple days. After that, we will have to monitor and see what kind of storm tracks set up. Friday is looking interesting. the EURO model has shown for three consecutive runs and storm off the Carolina Coast which phases and comes up the east coast. The GFS has this too, but doesn't phase, and it just scoots off the Carolina Coast. The Euro has been horrible of late, but nonetheless I will be watching it.

Snow looks to start 11pm-1am tonight and may last for a couple hours into the morning commute. Temperatures will be cold in the 20's.

Final Call Friday Storm

5 days ago, I was really anticipating tomorrow under the prospects of having a potential moderate snow event unfolding for the area. Alas, that is not happening, but we are looking for a minor event that will whiten up the area. Snow will move in tomorrow in the early afternoon and will accumulate 1-3" region wide. The snow will move out late evening into the night.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisories for Burlington and Ocean Counties south. These were issued because the threshold for accumulations is lower in those areas. The main concern for the snow will be the evening commute on Friday. if you haven't noticed, it has been pretty cold over the past three days and with that, snow will accumulate as soon as it starts falling. Any accumulations will make for a slick rush hour commute.  Here is the text output by NWS Philly / Mt. Holly:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHILLY / MT HOLLY ADVISORY (CLICK LINK)

Honeymoons Over

Enjoy the warmer temperatures we have experienced the past couple days because they will be coming to an end tonight. A cold front will be crossing the area from the west overnight, dropping temperatures back towards seasonal ranges.Another dreary overcast day today with warm temperatures will give way to rain overnight with the frontal passage. Temperatures will drop overnight. Rain will continue for tomorrow, and there is also a threat of sleet and snow mixing in for a bit. No accumulations with this, but you may hear some pinging.

Down the road a bit towards the weekend and next week appears to be cold. These colder temperatures will dominate the next two weeks. As of now, there are not really any storms popping up.