Tonight / Sunday

While temperatures were fairly warm this morning, a cold front has pushed through. Temperatures have been steadily falling all day and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, precipitation is pushing into the area and may be around through early Saturday morning. The rain / snow line is currently around Mt. Pocono, PA and pushing SE. Will it make it down far enough to the area to perhaps see some frozen precipitation? We will have to watch and see how it moves over the next couple hours. I have a feeling we may see a bit. Areas in NW NJ will stand the best chances for a changeover. I am not expecting any accumulations down here.

Once this storm pushes out, all eyes will turn to Sunday. A lot of talk has been made about a significant ice storm. While this will be the case for C PA, C MD, WV, W VA, we will only start as frozen precipitation before turning over to a cold rain. How long the cold air stays in place before being nudged out will be the question. For now, I think we see a start of snow which will change over to sleet and freezing rain and then rain overnight. I do think we may be able to sneak an inch or two of snow out before the changeover. After that storm pushes out, we will be heading into a rather cold period. 

More to come throughout the night on the rain snow line and more thoughts on Sunday

Tuesday / Wednesday Update

Models have been pretty consistent over the past day in regards to Wednesdays storm. Its looking like precipitation will actually make its way into the area around 7pm on Tuesday Night and be around until Wednesday Night before finally pushing out. This is looking like an all rain event, and we could get a healthy dosing. 1-3" generally across the area can be expected. The low pressure track, as shown on both the NAM model and GFS model show a track right over Philadelphia and Trenton to the NNE. With this track, we will have to watch for a potential dry slot to set up around our area, which could lead to a decrease in the amount of rain.

Once the storm pushes out, it will set up another round of cold air to move in. Thanksgiving will be cold and windy. The Macys Thanksgiving Day Parade will be interesting with the winds and the floats. More to come and any changes will be noted!

First Shot At Some Snow Flakes

a cold front will move through the area tonight, and will bring it some rain and snow showers. Yes, it looks like we may see our first flakes fly of the season tomorrow morning. Both the NAM and GFS models are showing a period of showers moving through during the daytime hours tomorrow. I expect zero accumulation, but I would not be surprised at all to see some flakes flying as the cold air moves in. We will then have two days of colder air with temperatures in the low 40's for Tuesday and Wednesday.

I think we are going to continue along this very transient pattern for the remainder of November. We will have a day or two of cooler air, then average temps and the cycle will continue. I am also think there will be little chance of an accumulating snowfall through the end of November. As always, I will keep you updated on any chances.

Monday February 11, 2013 Morning Discussion

Some areas this morning had icy conditions. Areas from Central Jersey south have transitioned to all rain as temperatures have risen well above freezing. A frontal boundary is moving through with a low pressure to our west. With that setup, we get flooded with warmer air aloft and eventually down to the surface. Areas further north that have a substantial amount of snow will stay with the freezing rain a little longer due to the fact that your surface temperatures are colder due to the snow. Eventually, all areas will transition to plain rain.

A lot going on this week. First, for the period Wednesday and Thursday we have a potential coastal storm development. Most models have some sort of storm (although they get here through different tracks) for our area. The usual questions remain; track, intensity etc. Biggest question for me right now is surface temperatures. As it looks now, would more than likely be a mix to snow for Central Jersey and snow north and west. Coastal areas would be rain and some backside snows possibly. Hopefully over the next day we can nail this down.

Then to the weekend. This would be the period from Saturday Night through Sunday Night. We have another modeled storm that could be a bit more substantial. A lot to work out with this storm, and I am going to focus on the Wednesday - Thursday storm first. There is potential though for another coastal storm. We have had a number of storms affect our area during the Presidents weekend time frame, and this could be another case.

Roller Coaster Week Setting Up

This upcoming week is shaping up to be a real roller coaster. Low temperatures this morning were very low. These low temperatures were helped by the fresh snowpack. Before delving into this week, lets recap the past storm. What a complex setup we had. One of the hardest things to do is look at the backlash snows you get on the wraparound (west side). This is tremendously hard to forecast and is your highest "bust" potential for any storm. Overall, I thought the models did a rather good job with the handling of the storm (although the NAM was amped over our area, it had a decent projection). By far, the EURO model was the model of choice with this storm. It was the first to see it, and remained very consistent. One thing that cannot be modeled is some of the mesoscale banding that occurs (areas of enhanced precipitation often times looking like a line of increased precip on radars). This was the driving factor that CT was the winner in the amount stakes. There was a band that was producing 4-6"/hr and thundersnow for an extended period of time in south central CT. Some of the pictures I saw from the inlaws and others in the area were VERY impressive. We may never see anything again like that, that is how rare that was. Many places received 24" in as little as 8-12 hours. For our area, we were hit with the backside of the storm which filled in nicely once the phase occured. There was quite a  sharp cutoff in precipitation.

For this week, we have a cold front moving through Monday. Prior to that, there is a low pressure heading into the Great Lakes (never a good sign to be on the east side, warm). It will bring us rain during the day on Monday. Front moves through and we head back towards normal for Tuesday. Wednesday into the Thursday is the next time frame I will be looking at for a snow potential. the GFS model has been pretty consistent with a Mid Atlantic special storm. We have a low pressure coming through the Gulf States which will then transfer off the NC coast. This is where the models separate. The GFS model brings the storm a bit further north, bringing precipitation into our area and then out to sea. The EURO moves it right out to sea and has little effect on our area. More to come on this.

90 hour GFS todays morning run:

96 hour GFS:

Also, the GFS model brings in some very cold temperatures for the end of the week, so I will also look at that.

Where We Head From Here

The mega cold front has pushed through. After a violent two days, temperatures nearing 70 degrees and many areas deluged with rain, the potent cold front has pushed through. Winds are back to the west, and now we can watch temperatures plummet through the day. In fact, Trenton, NJ had a period of time this morning where the temperature dropped 14 degrees in 3 hours (9 degress in 1 hour). Temperatures will get back down into the 30's today, and down below freezing tonight.

Friday will have a shot at some snow showers. More than likely they will not amount to much, but don't be surprised to see some flakes flying. Sunday will be a better shot at a more organized chance of some light snows. Temperatures will drop below freezing over the next few days at night, and highs will be in the mid 30's. Hopefully we can get a nice shot at some snow in the upcoming cooler weather.

The lake effect snow belt areas will be cranking in full force over the next couple days. In fact, snow bands were so potent this morning out near Pittsburgh that thunder was reported in the bands.

Wild Night Upcoming

***FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED FOR THE AREA***
***HIGH WIND WARNINGS POSTED FOR COASTAL AREAS***

FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PASS BETWEEN 11PM AND 2AM. 

Well, if yesterday is any indication of whats coming, we should be in for quite the wild night. 14 Tornado watches issued yesterday, numerous reported tornadoes and other severe weather outbreaks. Continuing this morning, tornado warnings have already been issued for parts of Georgia. This threat will continue. The Storm Prediction Center has been all over this, and they continue with their forecasts for today. They have actually extended their area of severe weather up into our area as designated as the slight risk on their map. A slight risk into these parts in January is quite odd. Anyways, here are their maps:

OUTLOOK:

TORNADO:

WINDS:

So, as you can see, our area (NJ) has been placed in a number of these categories. This is a vigorous cold front coming through and with temperatures getting up into the 60's today (already 65 in Buffalo, NY!!!), there will be some fuel. There are also extremely strong winds above the surface of the earth and any storm that can gain some elevation can get these winds to mix down. I think our primary threat will be strong winds with the frontal passage. We will also have some heavy rain, so much so that a Flash Flood Watch was issued for the area for 1"-2.5" of rain. That much rain falling quickly can lead to quick flooding conditions.

The frontal passage has been pushed back a little, due to it really becoming a slow mover. Originally I was looking for a late afternoon / evening start, but it appears now, that it will pass between 11pm and 2am. For many of you, you will be asleep and will probably be woken up by the winds, rain and possible thunder.

There will be more to come, so stay tuned to twitter @townerswxpage and facebook Towner's Weather PAGE

Roller Coaster Continues 1/29/2013 Morning Update

Well, the warm front has pushed through the area. As a result, we will have a nice thaw for today and tomorrow. Today, highs are looking like we will hit the high 40's to low 50's. Tomorrow, we have a serious shot of 60 degrees. In addition, I am becoming more and more concerned about a severe weather outbreak tomorrow. The severe outbreak is attributed to a strong cold front which is currently marching through the midwest. This front is going to spawn severe weather over the Northern Gulf States. These areas are going to have a rather impressive chance for tornadoes and very strong winds . As shown, the Storms Prediction Center is all over this:

Severe Weather Potential:

Tornadoes:

Winds:

As the front marches eastward, this area will move east. The front will bring very strong winds just off the ground and any storm that can gain some elevation can tap into these winds and mix them down to the surface. This will have to be watched to see how the severe weather plays out today and what that can lead to in 24 hours. SPC sees the threat for tomorrow, but not as pronounced. This may increase depending on how today's events go:

Once this storm pushes through, it will usher in cooler air once again. From there, hopefully we can get some kind of calibration to our winter and allow for some snow to make its way into the snow starved areas in NJ.

Snow Chances This Upcoming Week 1/21/13 - 1/27/13

It is being modeled as two chances for storms coming up this week. First, Monday Night a clipper is looking to take aim at the area and a coating - 2" looks possible. Towards the end of the week, we could be looking at a more substantial storm, but models have disagreements on track and strength. More updates tomorrow

Honeymoons Over

Enjoy the warmer temperatures we have experienced the past couple days because they will be coming to an end tonight. A cold front will be crossing the area from the west overnight, dropping temperatures back towards seasonal ranges.Another dreary overcast day today with warm temperatures will give way to rain overnight with the frontal passage. Temperatures will drop overnight. Rain will continue for tomorrow, and there is also a threat of sleet and snow mixing in for a bit. No accumulations with this, but you may hear some pinging.

Down the road a bit towards the weekend and next week appears to be cold. These colder temperatures will dominate the next two weeks. As of now, there are not really any storms popping up.