Another Round Of Heavy Rain And Severe Weather

A vigorous disturbance moves in tomorrow bringing more flooding rains. This time though, this will be accompanied by severe weather. Heavy rains will blanket the area, although more may fall north from NNJ/NYC through New England. 2-4" will be a good bet up there. Further south, we are looking at another 1-2" but will take the brunt of the severe weather. Heavy rains, dangerous lightning, strong winds, hail and even a tornado threat will be present. I will have more to come on this in a more detailed post this evening. Tomorrow is looking nasty! 

Wednesday Morning Update For Friday

As mentioned yesterday, the EURO model has been very very consistent with a significant East Coast storm for a number of successive runs now. This has continued. Not only has it continued, but every run seems to signify a bigger storm. By bigger, I mean affecting more areas. yesterdays midday run was a huge run for areas in New England. As I wrote yesterday, the low pressure was centered off the Carolina coast and moved to the "benchmark" and really hammered New England (specifically the Boston to Maine area). This track and intensity was a bit too late for areas south of NYC.

Last nights overnight EURO run actually shows a low pressure taking shape at the NC/SC border. From here it moves up and rapidly strengthens and brings measurable snowfall into the Philadelphia - NYC corridor. So, this will actually have to be watched to see if this continues. The GFS model did not even show this type of setup 1.5 days ago, but has really trended towards the EURO model. For now, the GFS keeps this as a New England event, with some rain changing over to snow for our area. The NAM (which we are on the outskirts of its range) shows a unphased dual low scenario bringing rain showers to the area.

What else to note, the RPM model has shown this morning a significant snowfall (more so than the EURO) for the NJ area as well as New England. This is again another one of those things we will have to watch to see if this continues. All in all, there is more frozen precipitation on the table today as compared to yesterday.  There is a long way to go to bring frozen precipitation to our area. I am much more enthusiastic about this compared to yesterday. Finger crossed!

Wild Night Upcoming

***FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED FOR THE AREA***
***HIGH WIND WARNINGS POSTED FOR COASTAL AREAS***

FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PASS BETWEEN 11PM AND 2AM. 

Well, if yesterday is any indication of whats coming, we should be in for quite the wild night. 14 Tornado watches issued yesterday, numerous reported tornadoes and other severe weather outbreaks. Continuing this morning, tornado warnings have already been issued for parts of Georgia. This threat will continue. The Storm Prediction Center has been all over this, and they continue with their forecasts for today. They have actually extended their area of severe weather up into our area as designated as the slight risk on their map. A slight risk into these parts in January is quite odd. Anyways, here are their maps:

OUTLOOK:

TORNADO:

WINDS:

So, as you can see, our area (NJ) has been placed in a number of these categories. This is a vigorous cold front coming through and with temperatures getting up into the 60's today (already 65 in Buffalo, NY!!!), there will be some fuel. There are also extremely strong winds above the surface of the earth and any storm that can gain some elevation can get these winds to mix down. I think our primary threat will be strong winds with the frontal passage. We will also have some heavy rain, so much so that a Flash Flood Watch was issued for the area for 1"-2.5" of rain. That much rain falling quickly can lead to quick flooding conditions.

The frontal passage has been pushed back a little, due to it really becoming a slow mover. Originally I was looking for a late afternoon / evening start, but it appears now, that it will pass between 11pm and 2am. For many of you, you will be asleep and will probably be woken up by the winds, rain and possible thunder.

There will be more to come, so stay tuned to twitter @townerswxpage and facebook Towner's Weather PAGE

Roller Coaster Continues 1/29/2013 Morning Update

Well, the warm front has pushed through the area. As a result, we will have a nice thaw for today and tomorrow. Today, highs are looking like we will hit the high 40's to low 50's. Tomorrow, we have a serious shot of 60 degrees. In addition, I am becoming more and more concerned about a severe weather outbreak tomorrow. The severe outbreak is attributed to a strong cold front which is currently marching through the midwest. This front is going to spawn severe weather over the Northern Gulf States. These areas are going to have a rather impressive chance for tornadoes and very strong winds . As shown, the Storms Prediction Center is all over this:

Severe Weather Potential:

Tornadoes:

Winds:

As the front marches eastward, this area will move east. The front will bring very strong winds just off the ground and any storm that can gain some elevation can tap into these winds and mix them down to the surface. This will have to be watched to see how the severe weather plays out today and what that can lead to in 24 hours. SPC sees the threat for tomorrow, but not as pronounced. This may increase depending on how today's events go:

Once this storm pushes through, it will usher in cooler air once again. From there, hopefully we can get some kind of calibration to our winter and allow for some snow to make its way into the snow starved areas in NJ.