Tonight / Sunday

While temperatures were fairly warm this morning, a cold front has pushed through. Temperatures have been steadily falling all day and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, precipitation is pushing into the area and may be around through early Saturday morning. The rain / snow line is currently around Mt. Pocono, PA and pushing SE. Will it make it down far enough to the area to perhaps see some frozen precipitation? We will have to watch and see how it moves over the next couple hours. I have a feeling we may see a bit. Areas in NW NJ will stand the best chances for a changeover. I am not expecting any accumulations down here.

Once this storm pushes out, all eyes will turn to Sunday. A lot of talk has been made about a significant ice storm. While this will be the case for C PA, C MD, WV, W VA, we will only start as frozen precipitation before turning over to a cold rain. How long the cold air stays in place before being nudged out will be the question. For now, I think we see a start of snow which will change over to sleet and freezing rain and then rain overnight. I do think we may be able to sneak an inch or two of snow out before the changeover. After that storm pushes out, we will be heading into a rather cold period. 

More to come throughout the night on the rain snow line and more thoughts on Sunday

Tuesday / Wednesday Update

Models have been pretty consistent over the past day in regards to Wednesdays storm. Its looking like precipitation will actually make its way into the area around 7pm on Tuesday Night and be around until Wednesday Night before finally pushing out. This is looking like an all rain event, and we could get a healthy dosing. 1-3" generally across the area can be expected. The low pressure track, as shown on both the NAM model and GFS model show a track right over Philadelphia and Trenton to the NNE. With this track, we will have to watch for a potential dry slot to set up around our area, which could lead to a decrease in the amount of rain.

Once the storm pushes out, it will set up another round of cold air to move in. Thanksgiving will be cold and windy. The Macys Thanksgiving Day Parade will be interesting with the winds and the floats. More to come and any changes will be noted!

Stormy Day On Tap?

Finally, we will be able to push this warm and humid airmass out of here today. A cold front is pushing east today and will bring with it much relief from the humid airmass. Along with the frontal passage, will be heavy rains, winds and isolated tornadoes. Once the front passes through, we will once again have temperatures in the low 70's with low humidity!

SPC values today:

Severe Weather:

Tornadoes:

Winds:

Monday February 11, 2013 Morning Discussion

Some areas this morning had icy conditions. Areas from Central Jersey south have transitioned to all rain as temperatures have risen well above freezing. A frontal boundary is moving through with a low pressure to our west. With that setup, we get flooded with warmer air aloft and eventually down to the surface. Areas further north that have a substantial amount of snow will stay with the freezing rain a little longer due to the fact that your surface temperatures are colder due to the snow. Eventually, all areas will transition to plain rain.

A lot going on this week. First, for the period Wednesday and Thursday we have a potential coastal storm development. Most models have some sort of storm (although they get here through different tracks) for our area. The usual questions remain; track, intensity etc. Biggest question for me right now is surface temperatures. As it looks now, would more than likely be a mix to snow for Central Jersey and snow north and west. Coastal areas would be rain and some backside snows possibly. Hopefully over the next day we can nail this down.

Then to the weekend. This would be the period from Saturday Night through Sunday Night. We have another modeled storm that could be a bit more substantial. A lot to work out with this storm, and I am going to focus on the Wednesday - Thursday storm first. There is potential though for another coastal storm. We have had a number of storms affect our area during the Presidents weekend time frame, and this could be another case.

Wild Night Upcoming

***FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED FOR THE AREA***
***HIGH WIND WARNINGS POSTED FOR COASTAL AREAS***

FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PASS BETWEEN 11PM AND 2AM. 

Well, if yesterday is any indication of whats coming, we should be in for quite the wild night. 14 Tornado watches issued yesterday, numerous reported tornadoes and other severe weather outbreaks. Continuing this morning, tornado warnings have already been issued for parts of Georgia. This threat will continue. The Storm Prediction Center has been all over this, and they continue with their forecasts for today. They have actually extended their area of severe weather up into our area as designated as the slight risk on their map. A slight risk into these parts in January is quite odd. Anyways, here are their maps:

OUTLOOK:

TORNADO:

WINDS:

So, as you can see, our area (NJ) has been placed in a number of these categories. This is a vigorous cold front coming through and with temperatures getting up into the 60's today (already 65 in Buffalo, NY!!!), there will be some fuel. There are also extremely strong winds above the surface of the earth and any storm that can gain some elevation can get these winds to mix down. I think our primary threat will be strong winds with the frontal passage. We will also have some heavy rain, so much so that a Flash Flood Watch was issued for the area for 1"-2.5" of rain. That much rain falling quickly can lead to quick flooding conditions.

The frontal passage has been pushed back a little, due to it really becoming a slow mover. Originally I was looking for a late afternoon / evening start, but it appears now, that it will pass between 11pm and 2am. For many of you, you will be asleep and will probably be woken up by the winds, rain and possible thunder.

There will be more to come, so stay tuned to twitter @townerswxpage and facebook Towner's Weather PAGE

Clipper Tonight, Bigger Storm End Of The Week

This week may well be remembered as one of the coldest over the past two years. This week will also be marked by bookend snow potential. A mild weekend has led way to crashing temperatures, snow chances and the lake effect snow machine cranking.

For our area, we are looking at a clipper moving through this evening. This will reinforce cold air, and bring us a chance at a period of snowy weather. This is not by any means, going to be a big event. In fact, this is going to resemble more along the lines of tracking a line of storms in the summer time. For those that see the squall move in, a quick burst of snow will cover the ground and could impair driving. A general coating to 1" can be expected.  Expect this to last less than an hour. The hi res NAM simulated radar has this over the area around 8pm tonight:

The real event for this storm tonight will be for areas in eastern New England (Boston to Portland, ME). They are going to experience what is known as a Norlun trough which will enhance the snowfall and really up totals in that area where 6" plus can be expected. I posted this a couple years ago when we had a Norlun trough move through our area, but here is the refresher for those interested:

                                                 Norlun Trough Explained (click link)

After this clipper moves through, our attention will turn towards Friday. Another storm is poised to move in and bring us a chance at some measurable snow fall. Weather models have been all over the place with this one, but the vast majority do show a storm. The next couple of days will be spent monitoring the weather models and trying to narrow down a consensus. We are looking at a Miller B storm, and historically, these are one of the most tricky storms to forecast. They can also lead to some of the most intense storms (a la our thunder snow storms for two winters ago.) For now, know that a chance exists and we will see how this plays out this week. Bundle up, going to be a cold one and hopefully snowy!