Tuesday / Wednesday Storm (Monday Noon Update)

24 hours ago, we were looking at being on the northern fringes of a developing clipper. Originally, we were looking at a nice light snowfall on the order of 1-3". Over the past 24 hours, this has grown into a rather potent system which will bring another plowable snowfall to the area. The developing clipper will now make it to the coast where it will rapidly deepen and throw back a decent amount of snows from DC to Boston. It will be a fairly quick moving storm (12 hours) but it will drop some fairly impressive snows. as of now, look like the snow will start around 1pm Tuesday and last until around 1am Wednesday.

An Arctic front will move through tonight keeping temperatures in the 20's tomorrow. This should be an all snow event, with no chance of mixing. Snow will work in around 1pm and will probably start sticking pretty quickly. Snow will really start picking up during the afternoon. Travel will quickly become treacherous and rush hour tomorrow will be pretty nasty. Snow will continue through the evening into the night and will last until the early morning hours on Wednesday. As of now, I am looking at 4-6" of snow area wide, with potential for more in any banding that sets up.

Any time we have a developing low pressure along the coast, we will have to watch the exact area where it develops. This will coincide with where the best precipitation will develop. As of now, it is modeled to set up in a prime area for snows. This is a prime I-95 storm. Depending how fast the low pressure can develop, heavy snow bands can enter the area, along with thundersnow. Of course, exact development area will dictate where those bands set up.

A quick update on models. Last night, models began to really show the potential. All models were showing a decent event, minus the NAM model. This morning, the NAM began to see it as well, and now all models are showing a decent storm. The Euro model last night was showing a lighter event, with mostly 2" up to about 195 in NJ and less above that. Will be interested to see what it shows at noon today. The Euro is the last hold out.

As always, more to come. I will update again in the afternoon and night!

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Evening Update 12/16/13)

No major changes on the model runs today. Snow spreads into the region between 4-7am and will likely be out of the area come early afternoon. No real major changes to the accumulations. Shore areas may start as snow, but likely will change over to rain rather quickly with no accumulation.  I am liking 1-2" for essentially the lower half of Jersey (South of Burlington / Ocean Counties) in areas where it snows. Northern Jersey (North of Mercer/Monmouth) could see 2-4". 

There is also some modeling that is showing another wave moving through tomorrow night for the southern half of NJ. This could potentially drop another coating up to 1" for some areas if it materializes. 

Also, another thing I cannot rule out is the fact that Clippers often times come in moisture starved and can really under perform. Our best accumulations come from a Clipper that moves in, hits the ocean and intensifies, dropping measurable snowfalls. This will not be the case with this system. This will be a quick moving system and with no blocking downstream, it will fly through. So, that's another thing I will be watching. 

For those of you who do not like snow, in 36 hours our temperatures will be moderating to more normal temperatures. Then, this weekend, we will be looking at highs in the 50's. In addition, winter officially starts this weekend. Colder temperatures will return around the Christmas time. 

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Update 12/16/13 morning)

All models are showing a clipper moving into the area tomorrow morning bringing another round of snow for the area. This will be primarily an accumulating snow for areas north of S NJ - Philly line. Our area can expect probably on the order of 1-3" with 1" being in the lower areas and more as you go north. Areas north of Newark into the Lower Hudson Valley and CT could potentially be looking at 2-4". This will be another quick moving storm. Precipitation breaks out over the morning hours, and will wrap up during the afternoon.

Interesting tidbit on the noontime NAM model run, still has a little area that pops up tomorrow night as a second wave moves in, which focuses precipitation over S NJ. They could possible pick up another 1-2" down there assuming temperatures cooperate.

Once this passes through, temperatures will moderate through the rest of the week. Towards the end of the week and the weekend, we may have highs into the 50's over the C NJ area. Temperatures do look to once again get colder around Christmas.

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat

On the heels of a very good week for the snow lovers, we begin this week with a clipper threat heading our way for Tuesday. This will once again be a quick hitting storm, but will drop some accumulating snow in our area. Snow looks to move in during the late morning hours and then will be out by the evening. Models are also showing another disturbance that may move in overnight Tuesday and bring some more snow showers to the area. Generally speaking, this event will be a E PA, NJ, S NY up through the Northeast. More to come on this! Generally looking at a 1-3" / 2-4" type event.

Another Clipper Moves Through Tonight

Well, for the third straight night, we will have another clipper moving through. Currently, the clipper is moving through Chicago and Indiana and will be making a drive east to the coast. I like our chances here to see a couple inches in Central NJ. We are in a great spot as it relates to clippers. The low pressure associated with the clipper will move just to our south. Usually, a path from the low out about 75-100 miles on either side is prime for the highest accumulations with a clipper. We are sitting within that (as modeled). The NAM model would bring us 2-3" while the GFS is more of a C-2" I would expect Advisories to be issued again for the overnight.

There may be another shot at a weak disturbance moving through Wednesday morning, and then I think clippermania comes to a stop. Our weather may get pretty boring for a couple days. After that, we will have to monitor and see what kind of storm tracks set up. Friday is looking interesting. the EURO model has shown for three consecutive runs and storm off the Carolina Coast which phases and comes up the east coast. The GFS has this too, but doesn't phase, and it just scoots off the Carolina Coast. The Euro has been horrible of late, but nonetheless I will be watching it.

Snow looks to start 11pm-1am tonight and may last for a couple hours into the morning commute. Temperatures will be cold in the 20's.

Winter Weather Advisories Issued Central NJ

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AS WELL AS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN MERCER COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME STEADIER LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED DRIVING AND WALKING SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

Clipper Tonight, Bigger Storm End Of The Week

This week may well be remembered as one of the coldest over the past two years. This week will also be marked by bookend snow potential. A mild weekend has led way to crashing temperatures, snow chances and the lake effect snow machine cranking.

For our area, we are looking at a clipper moving through this evening. This will reinforce cold air, and bring us a chance at a period of snowy weather. This is not by any means, going to be a big event. In fact, this is going to resemble more along the lines of tracking a line of storms in the summer time. For those that see the squall move in, a quick burst of snow will cover the ground and could impair driving. A general coating to 1" can be expected.  Expect this to last less than an hour. The hi res NAM simulated radar has this over the area around 8pm tonight:

The real event for this storm tonight will be for areas in eastern New England (Boston to Portland, ME). They are going to experience what is known as a Norlun trough which will enhance the snowfall and really up totals in that area where 6" plus can be expected. I posted this a couple years ago when we had a Norlun trough move through our area, but here is the refresher for those interested:

                                                 Norlun Trough Explained (click link)

After this clipper moves through, our attention will turn towards Friday. Another storm is poised to move in and bring us a chance at some measurable snow fall. Weather models have been all over the place with this one, but the vast majority do show a storm. The next couple of days will be spent monitoring the weather models and trying to narrow down a consensus. We are looking at a Miller B storm, and historically, these are one of the most tricky storms to forecast. They can also lead to some of the most intense storms (a la our thunder snow storms for two winters ago.) For now, know that a chance exists and we will see how this plays out this week. Bundle up, going to be a cold one and hopefully snowy!

Snow Chances This Upcoming Week 1/21/13 - 1/27/13

It is being modeled as two chances for storms coming up this week. First, Monday Night a clipper is looking to take aim at the area and a coating - 2" looks possible. Towards the end of the week, we could be looking at a more substantial storm, but models have disagreements on track and strength. More updates tomorrow