URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 328 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ060>062- 070-071-101>106-221600- /O.CON.KPHI.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140122T1600Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS- HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY- EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... CENTREVILLE...EASTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY... READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA... HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE... COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT... PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 328 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WINDS...NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. * WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. LIMIT YOUR TIME OUT OF DOORS. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD AND WIND COULD RESULT IN FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. && $$ IOVINO
Showing posts with label cold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cold. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Wind Chill Advisory For The Area Today - Bundle Up!
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
January 2-3, 2014 Storm (Wednesday Noon Update)
First, HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Well, here we are once again with a very challenging forecast which will more than likely go down to another nowcasting event. There are a number of moving parts to this storm, and the overall strength will not be known for some time. We have an interaction that will occur between the subtropical jet (currently the precipitation along the Gulf States and the Polar jet (currently the precipitation through the midwest into Detroit). As seen here:
As the storm progresses, we will see an interaction occur. When, and how quickly these parts interact and eventually phase, that will determine how much snow we are looking at. The NAM model paints an earlier phase and a bigger storm for our area, and the GFS model paints a later phase, and as a result, a bigger storm over New England. In any case, the GFS model still paints a plowable event for our area.
GFS model- Showing a quick intesification for our area, but moves out rather quickly in the next frame and hits NE.
1am Friday:
Friday 7am: (notice brunt of the precip off shore and over eastern NE
NAM MODEL
Quicker phase, really hammers our area
Still has moderate to heavy snow over our area at 7am Friday (notice our area has the brunt of the precip):
So, the big question will be when does this phase occur. And unfortunately, it will have to be now casted tomorrow night. Either case, we are looking at a storm which will drop a couple inches. Here is where I am now, if we get that earlier phase, I think our area would be looking at 6-10" of snow. If we get that later phase, I think we will be looking at 2-4 (SNJ) to 3-6 (CNJ-NNJ). Its going to be another thread the needle event, with another tough forecast. Don't be surprised to hear amounts going up and down by the media stations. I do believe that Watches and or Warnings will be issued for MT Holly's forecast area this afternoon. In addition, Areas just to our north, we may actually have the B word watches issued. Winds will definitely be a factor, and if they can get high enough, we may meet that criteria ("Blizzard conditions" technically occur when strong winds (at least 35 mph) combine with either falling snow or snow on the ground to reduce visibilities to 1/4 mile or less for at least three hours.)
The other dangerous part of this storm will be the temperatures. We are dealing with a polar airmass with this, so even though the morning tomorrow will be cool, temperatures will plummet tomorrow night and it could infact get down to the teens and be snowing, 20's all the way down to the coast. The danger with that, is #1, its cold and #2, salt does not work as well in much colder temperatures. #3, snow ratios will be higher (usually 1" water = 10" of snow). We could be looking at 15:1, 20:1 or higher! In any case, I am tuned and am looking forward to seeing this come together!
Well, here we are once again with a very challenging forecast which will more than likely go down to another nowcasting event. There are a number of moving parts to this storm, and the overall strength will not be known for some time. We have an interaction that will occur between the subtropical jet (currently the precipitation along the Gulf States and the Polar jet (currently the precipitation through the midwest into Detroit). As seen here:
As the storm progresses, we will see an interaction occur. When, and how quickly these parts interact and eventually phase, that will determine how much snow we are looking at. The NAM model paints an earlier phase and a bigger storm for our area, and the GFS model paints a later phase, and as a result, a bigger storm over New England. In any case, the GFS model still paints a plowable event for our area.
GFS model- Showing a quick intesification for our area, but moves out rather quickly in the next frame and hits NE.
1am Friday:
NAM MODEL
Quicker phase, really hammers our area
So, the big question will be when does this phase occur. And unfortunately, it will have to be now casted tomorrow night. Either case, we are looking at a storm which will drop a couple inches. Here is where I am now, if we get that earlier phase, I think our area would be looking at 6-10" of snow. If we get that later phase, I think we will be looking at 2-4 (SNJ) to 3-6 (CNJ-NNJ). Its going to be another thread the needle event, with another tough forecast. Don't be surprised to hear amounts going up and down by the media stations. I do believe that Watches and or Warnings will be issued for MT Holly's forecast area this afternoon. In addition, Areas just to our north, we may actually have the B word watches issued. Winds will definitely be a factor, and if they can get high enough, we may meet that criteria ("Blizzard conditions" technically occur when strong winds (at least 35 mph) combine with either falling snow or snow on the ground to reduce visibilities to 1/4 mile or less for at least three hours.)
The other dangerous part of this storm will be the temperatures. We are dealing with a polar airmass with this, so even though the morning tomorrow will be cool, temperatures will plummet tomorrow night and it could infact get down to the teens and be snowing, 20's all the way down to the coast. The danger with that, is #1, its cold and #2, salt does not work as well in much colder temperatures. #3, snow ratios will be higher (usually 1" water = 10" of snow). We could be looking at 15:1, 20:1 or higher! In any case, I am tuned and am looking forward to seeing this come together!
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15
The area will once again be looking at another storm moving in. This past week, many areas have eclipsed total snows from the last two years combined and we are looking at another storm adding to snow totals. We have a little different setup for this storm, which will make things interesting going into the weekend. We will have a low pressure system moving into the Ohio River Valley which will die off and transfer energy to a new low pressure along the coast. The big questions for our area will be, where does the initial low pressure die off, and where does the new low form. Having a low pressure to your west will spell temperature disaster if it holds on longer than projected, and likewise, if it dies earlier and the new low forms earlier, temperatures can be more favorable for snow. These storms have led to numerous issues that have happened before, and have both worked against us and for us.
As it is modeled now, it appears we will have a period of snow Saturday afternoon and evening before temperatures rise high enough to transition to mixed precipitation and then rain by early Sunday morning. We would be in for a couple inches of snow before the transition. Areas in NE PA, NW NJ, North of NYC and mid to northern area of CT will do very well with this storm. Its the areas south of those that will have the battles going on.
The NAM model has been the warmest of most models and keeps the low pressure tucked into the coastal region, while the EURO and GFS models keep the low pressure about 150-200 miles out into the ocean. The NAM would have a quicker transition to rain while the EURO and GFS will allow for a little more snow. I will be watching to see if any of those models begin to shift toward the other. In any case, all show a start of snow and a couple inch accumulation.
There will be more to come with this over the next two days, so stay tuned and enjoy the cold weather today and tomorrow!
As it is modeled now, it appears we will have a period of snow Saturday afternoon and evening before temperatures rise high enough to transition to mixed precipitation and then rain by early Sunday morning. We would be in for a couple inches of snow before the transition. Areas in NE PA, NW NJ, North of NYC and mid to northern area of CT will do very well with this storm. Its the areas south of those that will have the battles going on.
The NAM model has been the warmest of most models and keeps the low pressure tucked into the coastal region, while the EURO and GFS models keep the low pressure about 150-200 miles out into the ocean. The NAM would have a quicker transition to rain while the EURO and GFS will allow for a little more snow. I will be watching to see if any of those models begin to shift toward the other. In any case, all show a start of snow and a couple inch accumulation.
There will be more to come with this over the next two days, so stay tuned and enjoy the cold weather today and tomorrow!
Monday, December 9, 2013
Tuesday 12/10/13 Update
Models today have continued the general theme of a snowy Tuesday for the PHL - NYC corridor. All guidance is showing a plowable event for the area. Another common theme among the models is the formation of a rather robust band of snow. While this band of snow is showing up on models, and will be a driving force to greater accumulations, it will be something that will have to be nowcasted tomorrow closer to the event. Where this band sets up will be the "winners" in the snow accumulation. As of now, this line is forecasted per guidance to setup over our area. This is the reason why the Delaware River locations from PHL to Trenton is in a warning and not an advisory like the rest of the area. Needless to say, it will have to be something that I will be watching tomorrow. While the forecast is saying 4-6" for the area, if we do not end up under the band, we will probably have advisory level snows (2-4"). After the snows from yesterday, we can see what kind of accumulations you can get under one of those bands. Wilmington, DE to PHL to Southern NJ had a broad area of 6-10" of snow under that band that broke out. The moral of the story here is, we will have a general area of 2-4" snows, but getting hit by one of the bands of snow will increase those amounts, and that will have to be nowcasted tomorrow. In any event, precipitation type should not be a question. It will be getting colder as the storm progresses (as another round of cold pushes in) so we are looking at a solid snow event. This will be the type of snow that will stick around through the night and cause travel headaches since it will be blowing around and minimal melting will take place (sans areas that are treated). Start time looks like mid to late morning through the area. It will start from the SW and move NE. It will be a quick hitter and more than likely be winding down by the evening.
As always, more to come via twitter and facebook!
As always, more to come via twitter and facebook!
Friday, December 6, 2013
Tonight / Sunday
While temperatures were fairly warm this morning, a cold front has pushed through. Temperatures have been steadily falling all day and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, precipitation is pushing into the area and may be around through early Saturday morning. The rain / snow line is currently around Mt. Pocono, PA and pushing SE. Will it make it down far enough to the area to perhaps see some frozen precipitation? We will have to watch and see how it moves over the next couple hours. I have a feeling we may see a bit. Areas in NW NJ will stand the best chances for a changeover. I am not expecting any accumulations down here.
Once this storm pushes out, all eyes will turn to Sunday. A lot of talk has been made about a significant ice storm. While this will be the case for C PA, C MD, WV, W VA, we will only start as frozen precipitation before turning over to a cold rain. How long the cold air stays in place before being nudged out will be the question. For now, I think we see a start of snow which will change over to sleet and freezing rain and then rain overnight. I do think we may be able to sneak an inch or two of snow out before the changeover. After that storm pushes out, we will be heading into a rather cold period.
More to come throughout the night on the rain snow line and more thoughts on Sunday
Monday, November 25, 2013
Tuesday / Wednesday Update
Models have been pretty consistent over the past day in regards to Wednesdays storm. Its looking like precipitation will actually make its way into the area around 7pm on Tuesday Night and be around until Wednesday Night before finally pushing out. This is looking like an all rain event, and we could get a healthy dosing. 1-3" generally across the area can be expected. The low pressure track, as shown on both the NAM model and GFS model show a track right over Philadelphia and Trenton to the NNE. With this track, we will have to watch for a potential dry slot to set up around our area, which could lead to a decrease in the amount of rain.
Once the storm pushes out, it will set up another round of cold air to move in. Thanksgiving will be cold and windy. The Macys Thanksgiving Day Parade will be interesting with the winds and the floats. More to come and any changes will be noted!
Once the storm pushes out, it will set up another round of cold air to move in. Thanksgiving will be cold and windy. The Macys Thanksgiving Day Parade will be interesting with the winds and the floats. More to come and any changes will be noted!
Sunday, November 24, 2013
A Look Towards Wednesday
An Arctic front moved through last night and has put a chill over the area. This will continue today and tomorrow before all eyes shift towards the storm Wednesday.
Model consensus is building, and the general idea now is that a significant storm will move up the coast very late Tuesday into Wednesday. With most storms that move into our area, this one will also have some aspects that will need to be monitored going into Tuesday Night. As the low pressure moves along the Gulf Coast, it will interact with a disturbance moving across Canada. The exact timing of the interaction (phase) will determine where the low pressure begins to come up the coast. The earlier, the further west (warmer, more precip); and the later, further east (colder, less precip). As of now, my general thoughts are that the entire PHL- NYC corridor sees rain, with a possible changeover at the very end (no accumulation). The real question as far as snow goes, is for areas in the mountains north and west of us. There could be a significant dumping of snow in the much higher elevations.
I will be watching and updating on each model run via twitter and facebook and I will probably update my blog during the late evening and morning times. For now, sit back and drink a winter beer and enjoy the cold air!
Model consensus is building, and the general idea now is that a significant storm will move up the coast very late Tuesday into Wednesday. With most storms that move into our area, this one will also have some aspects that will need to be monitored going into Tuesday Night. As the low pressure moves along the Gulf Coast, it will interact with a disturbance moving across Canada. The exact timing of the interaction (phase) will determine where the low pressure begins to come up the coast. The earlier, the further west (warmer, more precip); and the later, further east (colder, less precip). As of now, my general thoughts are that the entire PHL- NYC corridor sees rain, with a possible changeover at the very end (no accumulation). The real question as far as snow goes, is for areas in the mountains north and west of us. There could be a significant dumping of snow in the much higher elevations.
I will be watching and updating on each model run via twitter and facebook and I will probably update my blog during the late evening and morning times. For now, sit back and drink a winter beer and enjoy the cold air!
Friday, February 15, 2013
Friday 2/15/2013 Morning Update
For tonight, expect a possible period of rain showers, snow showers and possible a little light snow to develop. This will not last long and will be out by the morning. Tomorrow, models have trended away from the idea of a coastal storm, so as of now, may be time to cancel the idea of a snowfall for this weekend. Models are keeping this storm pretty far off shore. It will really strengthen once it is beyond us. Eastern New England may get some effects of it, but we should be clear.
If anything changes on it, I will drop a note on here to let you know.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
New England Historic Storm Taking Shape
If there is one thing that is pretty certain here, is that New England is going to get smoked. These estimates of 24-30" of snow are realistic. This is going to be an old fashioned, New England blizzard. For the rest of us, from NYC south, the uncertainty remains king. We are dealing with two separate low pressures. One, a disturbance diving out of Canada towards the East Coast. The other, a low pressure in the Gulf States. These two low pressures will phase, or merge, along the East Coast and move ENE around the "benchmark"
EDIT- I have mentioned the "benchmark" on several posts, but I have probably not done a good job explaining why this is important. The "benchmark" is located at 40N and 70W and the significance is that a large majority of winter storms pass over this area bringing the perfect balance of distance to bring the biggest storms.
So, the questions remain where exactly these two low pressures phase, how phased the evolving storm can intensify, speed of travel and track of the storm. Each model is still showing some different outcomes based on these variables. Each model is also able to pick up on subtle characteristics that are making the forecast very difficult. Overnight, the NAM model had zero snow for Philly. The GFS showed a couple inches for Philly and the Euro was like 6" for Philly. Whats more mind boggling is while Boston is looking at 30", NYC could very well hit 12" of snow, while Philly sits at zero. This is the type of spread we have. Any earlier phase, we could be looking at substantial snows. Any later, or a further east track, we will be looking at showers with next to nothing.
For now, I am going with snow starting very early tomorrow morning (5- 7 am). Late morning we switch to mixed precipitation and rain. Late afternoon we switch back to snow and may get some period of moderate snows. I think from 195 north to NYC, 3-6" can be expected while areas from 195 south to Philly can expect 1-3". This is based on my current thoughts, but confidence is still low on this. By tonight I will issue a final. Places in NW NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley 8-12" can be expected while areas to the east from I87 - I91 12-20" and then from I91-East Coast 20-30".
Please remember for those areas looking to get walloped that this will be a rapidly intensifying storm and the winds will be whipping. There is also a higher than normal chance for thundersnow. Snowfall rates will easily make 1-3"/hour in many locations, if not more. This will be a very intense and dangerous storm.
EDIT- I have mentioned the "benchmark" on several posts, but I have probably not done a good job explaining why this is important. The "benchmark" is located at 40N and 70W and the significance is that a large majority of winter storms pass over this area bringing the perfect balance of distance to bring the biggest storms.
So, the questions remain where exactly these two low pressures phase, how phased the evolving storm can intensify, speed of travel and track of the storm. Each model is still showing some different outcomes based on these variables. Each model is also able to pick up on subtle characteristics that are making the forecast very difficult. Overnight, the NAM model had zero snow for Philly. The GFS showed a couple inches for Philly and the Euro was like 6" for Philly. Whats more mind boggling is while Boston is looking at 30", NYC could very well hit 12" of snow, while Philly sits at zero. This is the type of spread we have. Any earlier phase, we could be looking at substantial snows. Any later, or a further east track, we will be looking at showers with next to nothing.
For now, I am going with snow starting very early tomorrow morning (5- 7 am). Late morning we switch to mixed precipitation and rain. Late afternoon we switch back to snow and may get some period of moderate snows. I think from 195 north to NYC, 3-6" can be expected while areas from 195 south to Philly can expect 1-3". This is based on my current thoughts, but confidence is still low on this. By tonight I will issue a final. Places in NW NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley 8-12" can be expected while areas to the east from I87 - I91 12-20" and then from I91-East Coast 20-30".
Please remember for those areas looking to get walloped that this will be a rapidly intensifying storm and the winds will be whipping. There is also a higher than normal chance for thundersnow. Snowfall rates will easily make 1-3"/hour in many locations, if not more. This will be a very intense and dangerous storm.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
A Threat Looming?
A horrid winter trudges on for those loving snow. Each run of the models brings optimism and excitement, but this year usually leads to a let down. Rain / snow line a bit west, north, temperatures a bit to warm, precipitation just not breaking out, the list continues.
Here we go once again. A lot of talks about a storm on Friday. The EURO had this for a number of consecutive runs (which usually means something). The GFS has now moved to the idea of a Noreaster taking shape on Friday. This does look to be a significant storm, and someone will get a lot of snow. Right now, my money is on New England. I will say this as well, the GFS has trended cooler each run which does mean, any cooler we too could be looking at snow here too.
For now, a low pressure will phase with a northern stream disturbance off the coast of NC. From here, it will move up the east coast and come close to the "benchmark". The usual factors will need to be looked at here as always.....strong high pressure to the north, blocking, avail cold air, track, intensity etc. As for now, keep in your mind a storm is possible, with a lot of details to work out.
Monday, February 4, 2013
Another Clipper Moves Through Tonight
Well, for the third straight night, we will have another clipper moving through. Currently, the clipper is moving through Chicago and Indiana and will be making a drive east to the coast. I like our chances here to see a couple inches in Central NJ. We are in a great spot as it relates to clippers. The low pressure associated with the clipper will move just to our south. Usually, a path from the low out about 75-100 miles on either side is prime for the highest accumulations with a clipper. We are sitting within that (as modeled). The NAM model would bring us 2-3" while the GFS is more of a C-2" I would expect Advisories to be issued again for the overnight.
There may be another shot at a weak disturbance moving through Wednesday morning, and then I think clippermania comes to a stop. Our weather may get pretty boring for a couple days. After that, we will have to monitor and see what kind of storm tracks set up. Friday is looking interesting. the EURO model has shown for three consecutive runs and storm off the Carolina Coast which phases and comes up the east coast. The GFS has this too, but doesn't phase, and it just scoots off the Carolina Coast. The Euro has been horrible of late, but nonetheless I will be watching it.
Snow looks to start 11pm-1am tonight and may last for a couple hours into the morning commute. Temperatures will be cold in the 20's.
There may be another shot at a weak disturbance moving through Wednesday morning, and then I think clippermania comes to a stop. Our weather may get pretty boring for a couple days. After that, we will have to monitor and see what kind of storm tracks set up. Friday is looking interesting. the EURO model has shown for three consecutive runs and storm off the Carolina Coast which phases and comes up the east coast. The GFS has this too, but doesn't phase, and it just scoots off the Carolina Coast. The Euro has been horrible of late, but nonetheless I will be watching it.
Snow looks to start 11pm-1am tonight and may last for a couple hours into the morning commute. Temperatures will be cold in the 20's.
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Winter Weather Advisories Issued Central NJ
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AS WELL AS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN MERCER COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME STEADIER LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED DRIVING AND WALKING SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AS WELL AS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN MERCER COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME STEADIER LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED DRIVING AND WALKING SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
Overnight Update
A moisture starved clipper will be moving in over the area tonight. Currently, the clipper is over the Ohio River Valley and moving east. It is very disorganized and any moisture it has will hit the mountains in PA and essentially dry up. But, as it dries up, the low pressure will transfer to the coast and redevelop. Now, this will more than likely be too late to allow our area to receive a decent amount of snow, we will be looking at the ground possibly becoming whitened.
Also, this storm has really sped up from earlier discussions about it. I actually think this storm will move in overnight tonight and may be out of here prior to noon tomorrow with lingering snow showers throughout the day. Generally, I think the area will see a coating up to 2". The Pocono region will see slightly more, and coastal areas may see slightly more. Overall though, it will look nice, but nothing major.
FYI, some good news....a big storm is showing up on the models for the time period around Valentines. Day. The bad news, its 300+ hours away. Anyways, it will be monitored.
Also, this storm has really sped up from earlier discussions about it. I actually think this storm will move in overnight tonight and may be out of here prior to noon tomorrow with lingering snow showers throughout the day. Generally, I think the area will see a coating up to 2". The Pocono region will see slightly more, and coastal areas may see slightly more. Overall though, it will look nice, but nothing major.
FYI, some good news....a big storm is showing up on the models for the time period around Valentines. Day. The bad news, its 300+ hours away. Anyways, it will be monitored.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Where We Head From Here
The mega cold front has pushed through. After a violent two days, temperatures nearing 70 degrees and many areas deluged with rain, the potent cold front has pushed through. Winds are back to the west, and now we can watch temperatures plummet through the day. In fact, Trenton, NJ had a period of time this morning where the temperature dropped 14 degrees in 3 hours (9 degress in 1 hour). Temperatures will get back down into the 30's today, and down below freezing tonight.
Friday will have a shot at some snow showers. More than likely they will not amount to much, but don't be surprised to see some flakes flying. Sunday will be a better shot at a more organized chance of some light snows. Temperatures will drop below freezing over the next few days at night, and highs will be in the mid 30's. Hopefully we can get a nice shot at some snow in the upcoming cooler weather.
The lake effect snow belt areas will be cranking in full force over the next couple days. In fact, snow bands were so potent this morning out near Pittsburgh that thunder was reported in the bands.
Friday will have a shot at some snow showers. More than likely they will not amount to much, but don't be surprised to see some flakes flying. Sunday will be a better shot at a more organized chance of some light snows. Temperatures will drop below freezing over the next few days at night, and highs will be in the mid 30's. Hopefully we can get a nice shot at some snow in the upcoming cooler weather.
The lake effect snow belt areas will be cranking in full force over the next couple days. In fact, snow bands were so potent this morning out near Pittsburgh that thunder was reported in the bands.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Final Call Friday Storm
5 days ago, I was really anticipating tomorrow under the prospects of having a potential moderate snow event unfolding for the area. Alas, that is not happening, but we are looking for a minor event that will whiten up the area. Snow will move in tomorrow in the early afternoon and will accumulate 1-3" region wide. The snow will move out late evening into the night.
The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisories for Burlington and Ocean Counties south. These were issued because the threshold for accumulations is lower in those areas. The main concern for the snow will be the evening commute on Friday. if you haven't noticed, it has been pretty cold over the past three days and with that, snow will accumulate as soon as it starts falling. Any accumulations will make for a slick rush hour commute. Here is the text output by NWS Philly / Mt. Holly:
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
1/23/2013 Friday Update
After an up and down week on the models regarding the Friday storm, we are now gaining some semblance of an agreement. from 6"+ earlier in the week, to next to nothing yesterday, models are now showing a small event on the scale of 1-3" over a majority of the region. The storm is currently coming on shore in California, and models will have a much better data set to garner the variables. When weather systems are not over land, we are dependent on instrument drops from commercial aircraft and buoy data. When systems are over land, there are a number of additional areas to gain data. We also have this disturbance moving through today, which will also play into the end result on Friday.
All this being said, we are on tap for a small event for Friday. precipitation will move in during the late morning, early afternoon time frame and will last into the late evening / night on Friday. More to come on any immediate changes that occur in the modeling.
Sorry for being brief, just a quick update
All this being said, we are on tap for a small event for Friday. precipitation will move in during the late morning, early afternoon time frame and will last into the late evening / night on Friday. More to come on any immediate changes that occur in the modeling.
Sorry for being brief, just a quick update
Monday, January 21, 2013
Clipper Tonight, Bigger Storm End Of The Week
This week may well be remembered as one of the coldest over the past two years. This week will also be marked by bookend snow potential. A mild weekend has led way to crashing temperatures, snow chances and the lake effect snow machine cranking.
For our area, we are looking at a clipper moving through this evening. This will reinforce cold air, and bring us a chance at a period of snowy weather. This is not by any means, going to be a big event. In fact, this is going to resemble more along the lines of tracking a line of storms in the summer time. For those that see the squall move in, a quick burst of snow will cover the ground and could impair driving. A general coating to 1" can be expected. Expect this to last less than an hour. The hi res NAM simulated radar has this over the area around 8pm tonight:
The real event for this storm tonight will be for areas in eastern New England (Boston to Portland, ME). They are going to experience what is known as a Norlun trough which will enhance the snowfall and really up totals in that area where 6" plus can be expected. I posted this a couple years ago when we had a Norlun trough move through our area, but here is the refresher for those interested:
Norlun Trough Explained (click link)
After this clipper moves through, our attention will turn towards Friday. Another storm is poised to move in and bring us a chance at some measurable snow fall. Weather models have been all over the place with this one, but the vast majority do show a storm. The next couple of days will be spent monitoring the weather models and trying to narrow down a consensus. We are looking at a Miller B storm, and historically, these are one of the most tricky storms to forecast. They can also lead to some of the most intense storms (a la our thunder snow storms for two winters ago.) For now, know that a chance exists and we will see how this plays out this week. Bundle up, going to be a cold one and hopefully snowy!
For our area, we are looking at a clipper moving through this evening. This will reinforce cold air, and bring us a chance at a period of snowy weather. This is not by any means, going to be a big event. In fact, this is going to resemble more along the lines of tracking a line of storms in the summer time. For those that see the squall move in, a quick burst of snow will cover the ground and could impair driving. A general coating to 1" can be expected. Expect this to last less than an hour. The hi res NAM simulated radar has this over the area around 8pm tonight:
The real event for this storm tonight will be for areas in eastern New England (Boston to Portland, ME). They are going to experience what is known as a Norlun trough which will enhance the snowfall and really up totals in that area where 6" plus can be expected. I posted this a couple years ago when we had a Norlun trough move through our area, but here is the refresher for those interested:
Norlun Trough Explained (click link)
After this clipper moves through, our attention will turn towards Friday. Another storm is poised to move in and bring us a chance at some measurable snow fall. Weather models have been all over the place with this one, but the vast majority do show a storm. The next couple of days will be spent monitoring the weather models and trying to narrow down a consensus. We are looking at a Miller B storm, and historically, these are one of the most tricky storms to forecast. They can also lead to some of the most intense storms (a la our thunder snow storms for two winters ago.) For now, know that a chance exists and we will see how this plays out this week. Bundle up, going to be a cold one and hopefully snowy!
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
The Week Ahead
First round of rain moved through last night. There were some reports of sleet in NW NJ. Another round of precipitation moves in tonight, and areas just NW of our area will be looking at wintry precipitation. The Lehigh Valley and Poconos as well as NW NJ could see frozen precipitation with this. Areas that see snow could get a 2-4" snowfall, while other areas that stay frozen could receive a minor to moderate ice event. Precipitation moves out tomorrow morning.
Next time frame I will be looking at is towards the end of the week around the late Thursday to Saturday time frame. Models are showing a storm moving off the SE coast. Usually this would mean little to us up here, but the general trend this winter has been each model run coming further NW. So, its something I will keep my eye on.
Colder temperatures will be sticking around for a while. Next week looks to get really cold :)
Next time frame I will be looking at is towards the end of the week around the late Thursday to Saturday time frame. Models are showing a storm moving off the SE coast. Usually this would mean little to us up here, but the general trend this winter has been each model run coming further NW. So, its something I will keep my eye on.
Colder temperatures will be sticking around for a while. Next week looks to get really cold :)
Monday, January 14, 2013
Honeymoons Over
Enjoy the warmer temperatures we have experienced the past couple days because they will be coming to an end tonight. A cold front will be crossing the area from the west overnight, dropping temperatures back towards seasonal ranges.Another dreary overcast day today with warm temperatures will give way to rain overnight with the frontal passage. Temperatures will drop overnight. Rain will continue for tomorrow, and there is also a threat of sleet and snow mixing in for a bit. No accumulations with this, but you may hear some pinging.
Down the road a bit towards the weekend and next week appears to be cold. These colder temperatures will dominate the next two weeks. As of now, there are not really any storms popping up.
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