Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Wednesday Afternoon Update)

First and foremost, our storm is really taking a toll in the Southeastern US. Snows and ice are really hitting an area hard that is not normally accustomed to this. I can only hope everyone down there follows their forecasts and have plans done accordingly.

For our area up here, we are about 10 hours away from the start of our storm. As you can see, we are dealing with a very large storm. We can see a direct influence from the Gulf Of Mexico feeding directly into our low pressure. This will be a very intense and large storm. This will also probably be our longest duration event for the year.

My going thinking has been 4-8" for the area and then a switch over to a mix and possibly rain. I do think we switch back to snow as the CCB (Cold Conveyor Belt) swings through the area. The CCB is the back end of the "comma" head of the storm. As the storm pushes through, this will swing over the area. How much additional will that add? Well, like everything else with this storm, it depends.

I will say, the models have been all over the place with this very large and complex storm. My 4-8" is my best guess trying to make sense and from experience with these types of storms from prior years. Growing up in NJ, most of the large intense storms bring a period of a transition to a mix or rain. As the storm moves east of the area, we go back to snow till the end of the storm. While the model guidance has been less than stellar, I do hold out hope for the short range models, the HRRR and the RUC models which will be in their range later on tonight.

While my call is 4-8" with a transition, the confidence of that is low to medium. I think we are going to see some very impressive snowfall rates through the area. We have a storm that is going to dump between 1-2" of precipitation. The question is going to be figuring out, how much of that is snow, mix, rain. If it were all snow, we would be looking at 12"+ easily. Now, how fast do we transition? Do we transition? does it stay as sleet? freezing rain? rain? Do we go back to snow? What kind of precipitation rates do we have? These questions will all be answered starting in 10 hours. Until then, I am going with the 4-8" as my conservative estimate, with a strong feeling that the totals may end up higher than that.

So, while those are the accumulation questions, there will be other questions that will also need to be answered. I said that we are dealing with a very large and dynamic storm. Even if warm air moves in, and the surface temps get above freezing, if we have a period of very heavy precipitation, we can remain snow if the upper atmosphere is still below freezing. This will all have to be tracked as well with the storm. Obviously, if the rates are not that impressive, or the upper atmosphere and surface are above freezing, we will have rain. Speaking of dynamic......I fully expect there to be a good number of reports of thundersnow tomorrow. Maybe even as early as the early morning hours.

So, the specifics.

Snow moves in around midnight to 2am. It will snow very heavily in the early morning hours, with the possibility of thundersnow. Accumulations by the time we wake up will be 3-6". I expect to pick up another inch or two and then a transition to a mix will occur as the storm moves closer and some warmer air floods the upper atmosphere. I do think though we will remain sleet for a while. During the afternoon, precipitation may actually stop or become very drizzly. To the evening hours, I expect the CCB to intensify and move through dropping more intense snowfall before ending towards midnight. Exactly how much will depend on how the low pressure bombs out, and how much moisture can be thrown back over the area.

Anyways, those are my thoughts and concerns as of now. As always, I will be posting on facebook and twitter throughout the day and night.

Stay Safe!

Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Tuesday AM Update)

Overnight model runs have concluded and now I am looking forward towards today noon model runs. Last night, I explained on facebook where we were before the model runs. Overnight, the NAM was less amped, the GFS moved a bit west (but overall had a much better organization). The EURO was pretty steadfast on its track showing a front end thump of snow and then a transition to a mix and possibly rain. Today the models continued down the same roads and the NAM, GFS and Canadian models all bring in a period of sleet/mix/rain to CNJ.

With that, it has become more and more clear that our area will see some transition over to sleet/mix/rain etc. The projected track (on any of the models) will make it very difficult for us to remain all snow. Areas NW of 95 should do really well and will cash in with widespread areas of 12"+. Those areas would be places like Reading, the Lehigh Valley, NE PA and possibly NW NJ. I think areas down in CNJ are looking at a nice front end thump of snow 4-8" (possibly more) and then a transition over to sleet/mix and then possibly rain. There could also be a change back to all snow on the tail end. Coastal areas, there is a full moon expected as well Thursday, and with a developing low pressure coming up the coast, spells disaster for coastal flooding. 

In any case, a shift in the models by 50 miles east could make quite a difference. Same with a shift 50 miles west. With that, those are my general ideas. There will be more updates to come. We are still 36 hours away so there is some time for some wiggles. If you know anyone down in the NE Georgia, Central SC and NC areas, they will be receiving an epic ice storm. Make sure those down there are prepared and follow their latest forecasts down there. We still have people up this way without power from our storm last Wednesday. Also, areas not accustomed to snow could be in for some surprises as well (South Central VA, W NC etc). Also, DC looks to actually be in a pretty decent spot up our way for a pretty decent storm as well. 

More to come

A Look Ahead Into Wednesday / Thursday

With this clipper over for today, the next focus will be on a developing storm for the Wednesday - Thursday timeframe. The Canadian and EURO models have been hinting at a low pressure tracking from the SE coast, up to the Outer Banks and then east of Jersey to the "benchmark" (or just inside). The benchmark is a noted area, 40N 70W, where most of our significant snowstorms move through especially for New England). Also, this looks to be a much slower moving storm than we have had this year and will also effect a larger area.

The GFS has come around to the idea and has the storm, but has it further into the ocean and only scraping the East Coast. Tonight, the NAM also shows the storm, although we are at hour 84 on the 84 hour model (not the greatest at this range) but I am encouraged to see it there, and very amped up. There will obviously be some questions with track, intensity and so forth with this storm, but this is definitely one that has my attention. This will effect a large area, from the Gulf States to the Southeast to the Mid Atlantic through New England.

So, time to watch the continuity from run to run and see further cohesion in coming up with a track. There will be many updates coming, so please follow along on twitter and facebook!

Monday 2/3/14 Storm (Sunday AM thoughts)

First, Phil saw his shadow this morning at Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, PA. As the legend goes, this means 6 more weeks of winter. As reality goes, Phil is batting about 39% which bodes well for those that want this winter over.

On to more important things, we have a storm heading our way which will move in during the overnight hours. With temperatures today approaching 50 degrees, we will be relying on a cold front that will be pushing through and dropping temperatures. How fast this can get through the area and how fast temperatures can fall will be determining factors on how much total accumulation we will have. The fact that the storm pushes in during the early morning hours will help the snow cause.

As of now, I think precipitation moves in between 5am and 7am across the C NJ area. Precipitation may start out as a mix but I think it will quickly transition over to snow. The problem we will have is the upper atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow, but the surface may not be. So, until the surface cools enough to support snow, we will be looking at a mix. In addition, once the heavier precipitation moves in, that too will help to keep the column cool enough to support all snow.

As of now, I do think another substantial storm is bearing down on the area. There is two different ways I am looking at this storm. As I am thinking now, with a period of mixing to start, I generally like 3-6" from Philly through Trenton to New Brunswick with 2-4" to the north of there. If the cold front can push in and our temperatures crash a little faster, 4-8" from Philly to Trenton to New Brunswick can be expected. I still think north of there for NNJ, NE PA and NYC will see 2-4"/3-5"

Other areas- NE MD - N DE 2-4" if mixing to start 3-6" if all snow
                    DC - Baltimore, S DE 1-3" but there will be serious mixing concerns.

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15

The area will once again be looking at another storm moving in. This past week, many areas have eclipsed total snows from the last two years combined and we are looking at another storm adding to snow totals. We have a little different setup for this storm, which will make things interesting going into the weekend. We will have a low pressure system moving into the Ohio River Valley which will die off and transfer energy to a new low pressure along the coast. The big questions for our area will be, where does the initial low pressure die off, and where does the new low form. Having a low pressure to your west will spell temperature disaster if it holds on longer than projected, and likewise, if it dies earlier and the new low forms earlier, temperatures can be more favorable for snow. These storms have led to numerous issues that have happened before, and have both worked against us and for us.

As it is modeled now, it appears we will have a period of snow Saturday afternoon and evening before temperatures rise high enough to transition to mixed precipitation and then rain by early Sunday morning. We would be in for a couple inches of snow before the transition. Areas in NE PA, NW NJ, North of NYC and mid to northern area of CT will do very well with this storm. Its the areas south of those that will have the battles going on.

The NAM model has been the warmest of most models and keeps the low pressure tucked into the coastal region, while the EURO and GFS models keep the low pressure about 150-200 miles out into the ocean. The NAM would have a quicker transition to rain while the EURO and GFS will allow for a little more snow. I will be watching to see if any of those models begin to shift toward the other. In any case, all show a start of snow and a couple inch accumulation.

There will be more to come with this over the next two days, so stay tuned and enjoy the cold weather today and tomorrow!

Tonight / Sunday

While temperatures were fairly warm this morning, a cold front has pushed through. Temperatures have been steadily falling all day and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, precipitation is pushing into the area and may be around through early Saturday morning. The rain / snow line is currently around Mt. Pocono, PA and pushing SE. Will it make it down far enough to the area to perhaps see some frozen precipitation? We will have to watch and see how it moves over the next couple hours. I have a feeling we may see a bit. Areas in NW NJ will stand the best chances for a changeover. I am not expecting any accumulations down here.

Once this storm pushes out, all eyes will turn to Sunday. A lot of talk has been made about a significant ice storm. While this will be the case for C PA, C MD, WV, W VA, we will only start as frozen precipitation before turning over to a cold rain. How long the cold air stays in place before being nudged out will be the question. For now, I think we see a start of snow which will change over to sleet and freezing rain and then rain overnight. I do think we may be able to sneak an inch or two of snow out before the changeover. After that storm pushes out, we will be heading into a rather cold period. 

More to come throughout the night on the rain snow line and more thoughts on Sunday

Monday-Tuesday Potential

This upcoming Monday into Tuesday has a fairly decent storm moving into the area. There are a number of variables going into this storm, and as of now, there is a fairly decent disagreement between models. A low pressure system is poised to move towards the Ohio River Valley and then transfer to a new low in the Atlantic. Where exactly this low forms, how fast it develops and the speed will all determine what kind, if any precipitation we get. 

The upper atmosphere has been cold, and there is a source for cold air. The NAM and Canadian models have rather robust outcomes while the GFS is a little weaker. The EURO has been showing this as a suppressed system but today at noon it too has brought it a little further north affecting the area. There is a fairly decent shot at a storm, and I will be following it. Best chances for accumulating snows would be at night. As of now, it looks like a Monday afternoon to early Tuesday morning event. 

More to come!

Another Surprise Today?

Not as likely, but temperatures are around 30 degrees. Temperatures that low, combined with a dew point in the mid teens will allow todays precipitation to start out as snow. Gradually, it will changeover to a mix and rain. A large majority of the precipitation for us in Central NJ will be rain. For areas north and west, it will be a different story. Snow and ice will rule the day and night. Areas in the Poconos, NW NJ and into NY and CT have a real mess on their hands. Areas even further north into Upstate NY and Northern New England can see up to a foot of snow! Not bad for late March.

Current Warnings (Pink)
Current Advisories (Blue)

Another Close Shot

A warm front will be moving into the area tomorrow and bringing another round of precipitation. We still have an arctic airmass in place which will give way to much milder temperatures (Tuesday, Wednesday). As precipitation comes in, the upper atmosphere will warm, but since cold air is heavier than warm air, the cold air at the surface will take a little bit longer to warm. This process, known as warm ait advection will possibly lead to an icy situation Monday. The timing and extent to which how long it takes the cold air to retreat will all be determining how long icy conditions could stay around.

Areas to the south will have little to no icy time while areas to the north will be a different story. Typically, NW NJ and the Pocono gets quite icy during these setups. Areas further south from Philly to Trenton tend to switch over pretty quickly. Between Trenton and the before-mentioned NW NJ and Pocono region, that will be where the real battle sets up for how long it takes to switch over to all rain. Precipitation makes it in for the morning hours. Many areas will start as snow and then switch over to ice and then rain. Areas will start from south to north.

After this bout with weather, we will have a nice thaw coming for Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern will reload and it will return cold towards the end of the week.

The Week Ahead

First round of rain moved through last night. There were some reports of sleet in NW NJ. Another round of precipitation moves in tonight, and areas just NW of our area will be looking at wintry precipitation. The Lehigh Valley and Poconos as well as NW NJ could see frozen precipitation with this. Areas that see snow could get a 2-4" snowfall, while other areas that stay frozen could receive a minor to moderate ice event. Precipitation moves out tomorrow morning.

Next time frame I will be looking at is towards the end of the week around the late Thursday to Saturday time frame. Models are showing a storm moving off the SE coast. Usually this would mean little to us up here, but the general trend this winter has been each model run coming further NW. So, its something I will keep my eye on.

Colder temperatures will be sticking around for a while. Next week looks to get really cold :)

Honeymoons Over

Enjoy the warmer temperatures we have experienced the past couple days because they will be coming to an end tonight. A cold front will be crossing the area from the west overnight, dropping temperatures back towards seasonal ranges.Another dreary overcast day today with warm temperatures will give way to rain overnight with the frontal passage. Temperatures will drop overnight. Rain will continue for tomorrow, and there is also a threat of sleet and snow mixing in for a bit. No accumulations with this, but you may hear some pinging.

Down the road a bit towards the weekend and next week appears to be cold. These colder temperatures will dominate the next two weeks. As of now, there are not really any storms popping up. 

12/28/2012 Evening Update

Well, what a turn of events on the weather modeling regarding tomorrows storm. Yesterday, we were looking at a storm that was tracking east of us far enough where there was no issues with precipitation type. We were getting snow, end of story. Today, things have changed. Each model run has brought a solution closer and closer to the coast, and also transferring energy and phasing energy sooner. All this leaves us in a position where we may actually have to worry about a changeover to a mix, or worse, rain.

Models have been showing this all day, and each run is more precipitation and further west (bringing in warmer air). I am kinda hoping there is a correction back a bit to the east on tonights runs, but not overly enthusiastic that happens. Tomorrow, it is very possible as of now, that coastal areas get a brief period of snow before a direct change to rain. That rain/snow line will then march northward and to what extent is unknown, it will just have to be watched in a nowcasting situation tomorrow. It will more than likely setup shop somewhere around interstate 95.

More to come.