February 5th Event (Monday PM Update)

As we wind down from our storm today, we can now turn out attention to the upcoming threat on Wednesday. Last week I made a post about a very active pattern unfolding over the area, and that seems to be the case. Yes, we have a lot of threats, and yes, we have some shots at snow. I will however, take it one storm at a time. I spoke of the change in any variable from a previous storm having an impact on storms following. Case in point, the next storm up, Wednesday.

Two days ago, this was looking like a washout. Now, with some fresh snowcover down, there is talk of a couple inches of snow and then a switch over to a mix and then to rain. Places now in NW NJ and NE PA could get a whole lot of snow and never transition over now. So, I am going to be curious to see how the models interpret this tonight and tomorrow. I have a sneaking suspicion that we could be in for a ice event, especially from Trenton north. 

As of now, Snow moves in late tomorrow night and will accumulate. Precipitation will transition over to a mix from south to north. It will make it to about rt 80 where north of there is out best bet to remain all snow. In addition, the mix will also change over to rain from south to north, and how far up that goes will be the question. This will be another quick moving storm, and will probably be out of here again by the late afternoon Wednesday. More to come on this storm. 

Monday 2/3/14 Storm (Sunday AM thoughts)

First, Phil saw his shadow this morning at Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, PA. As the legend goes, this means 6 more weeks of winter. As reality goes, Phil is batting about 39% which bodes well for those that want this winter over.

On to more important things, we have a storm heading our way which will move in during the overnight hours. With temperatures today approaching 50 degrees, we will be relying on a cold front that will be pushing through and dropping temperatures. How fast this can get through the area and how fast temperatures can fall will be determining factors on how much total accumulation we will have. The fact that the storm pushes in during the early morning hours will help the snow cause.

As of now, I think precipitation moves in between 5am and 7am across the C NJ area. Precipitation may start out as a mix but I think it will quickly transition over to snow. The problem we will have is the upper atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow, but the surface may not be. So, until the surface cools enough to support snow, we will be looking at a mix. In addition, once the heavier precipitation moves in, that too will help to keep the column cool enough to support all snow.

As of now, I do think another substantial storm is bearing down on the area. There is two different ways I am looking at this storm. As I am thinking now, with a period of mixing to start, I generally like 3-6" from Philly through Trenton to New Brunswick with 2-4" to the north of there. If the cold front can push in and our temperatures crash a little faster, 4-8" from Philly to Trenton to New Brunswick can be expected. I still think north of there for NNJ, NE PA and NYC will see 2-4"/3-5"

Other areas- NE MD - N DE 2-4" if mixing to start 3-6" if all snow
                    DC - Baltimore, S DE 1-3" but there will be serious mixing concerns.

Monday-Tuesday Potential

This upcoming Monday into Tuesday has a fairly decent storm moving into the area. There are a number of variables going into this storm, and as of now, there is a fairly decent disagreement between models. A low pressure system is poised to move towards the Ohio River Valley and then transfer to a new low in the Atlantic. Where exactly this low forms, how fast it develops and the speed will all determine what kind, if any precipitation we get. 

The upper atmosphere has been cold, and there is a source for cold air. The NAM and Canadian models have rather robust outcomes while the GFS is a little weaker. The EURO has been showing this as a suppressed system but today at noon it too has brought it a little further north affecting the area. There is a fairly decent shot at a storm, and I will be following it. Best chances for accumulating snows would be at night. As of now, it looks like a Monday afternoon to early Tuesday morning event. 

More to come!