March 6th and 7th Update 3/4/13 Afternoon

I talked about model chicken going on earlier, and it appears a consensus is growing. While there is still a long road to go until the final outcome, indications today are the mighty EURO is caving and moving towards the GFS. Major models, excluding the Canadian, moved north today. NAM and GFS both are big hits for DC-Boston. Euro has moved further north and is on NYC's doorstep. The Euro now puts appreciable precipitation into the Central and Southern NJ area. The 20 million dollar question now becomes temperatures. We look to have appreciable precipitation moving in, but our temperatures are going to be MARGINAL at best for snow. In fact  the low pressure tracking to our south will bring an easterly wind to our area and bring air in off the ocean which is above freezing. Easterly winds and snow do not mix. Precipitation is also going to be coming in during the daytime hours and the sun angle is higher in March which will have a profound effect on accumulations on pavement. The caveat is that this could be a prolonged event and precipitation will last through the night (as modeled now). When the sun sets, if we can get temperatures cold enough for snow, we could see accumulations then.

Coastal areas are going to get hit again. I hate saying this, but an inch of water, winds 40-50mph and high seas are going to really hurt and hamper recovery efforts. There is little doubt that the shore areas will be hit hard regardless of what happens inland. Please make preparations down da shore if you own property down there.

Still a long way to go here, and a lot can happen. I am going to remain a little more conservative here until there is more compelling evidence one way or the other. I am increasingly more interested in this storm though because regardless, it has been a wild two days from nothing to a moderate to major threat for the area.

Anyways, here are some pics with the representation of events from the different models. (NOT FORECASTS, JUST SINGLE MODEL RUNS)

GFS Evening:

Surface low pressure:

Snowfall:

NAM Evening snowfall:

EURO Midday Snowfall:

Recap And The Weekend Ahead

Surface temperatures yesterday during the day really hampered our efforts to get a good accumulating snow. Even when the snow rates increased, it was tough to accumulate due to the surface warmth and the water that had already accumulated on the ground. If we have had that snow a week ago when our highs were in the 20's, we would have had a nice little event. Anyways, time to move on.

I wrote earlier this week about the potential for a storm this weekend. It was being shown on the models a couple days ago, and then went away. Well, the idea of a weekend storm are back. The noon time runs today are showing the potential to be there for our area into the Northeast. These periods of time when multiple storms are showing up on models, it becomes difficult for them to key in on each one. This is one of the reasons why I have felt that it was possible for this weekend, because the positioning of a lot of other elements are present. Sometimes it just takes one storm to conclude before models pick up on the other pieces of energy. 

A quick look at the midday model runs has the GFS showing a very nice coastal storm taking shape of the coast in the southeast moving up the coast (moderate storm). The NAM is similar (although not totally honed in yet) and the Canadian model also shows an event like the NAM. The Euro just came out, and has an event, but much lighter. I have not looked at surface temps on each preceding them, but tomorrow is supposed to be warm. In addition, a arctic trough will be settling in just before or concurrent for the storm. Things may get interesting. 

I will have more to come over the day and a more detailed post tonight. Just be prepared that a significant storm can potentially come to fruition within a couple days. 

Happy Valentines Day to everyone! 

Tuesday 2/12/2013 Morning Update

Increasingly more confident of measurable snows moving into the area for Wednesday Night into Thursday. Over the past 24 hours, models have kept the measurable precipitation SOUTH of areas just bombarded (CT, NYC etc). For those areas a coating to 1" can be expected. From NYC South to Trenton 1-2" looks good. From the Trenton area south towards Philly 2-4" is my call, and areas south of that, while seeing more precipitation, you will have serious surface temperature issues preventing a lot of accumulation 1-3" down there. In any case, this looks to be a quick hitter. precipitation moves in between 6pm and 8pm and is out by 7am.

For the weekend there still remains a lot of questions. Most major models are not showing anything resembling a monster storm. The UKMET is probably the closest, but for now remaining cautiously optimistic about the event. More to come on this.

All In..... Here We Go!

I have been talking over the past couple of days about it all coming down to the phasing. Well, it does. And, what the models have been showing today is an earlier phase, creating a colder solution, more intense storm, and more precipitation. While there is more precipitation, it doesn't mean we escape rain free everywhere. Many areas in Central NJ will wake up to snow tomorrow that will change to rain. Don't fret, this is an overrunning event from the southern low pressure. Although it changes to rain, it will change back to snow during the afternoon hours. This will be due to the phase of the southern and northern storms. The northern storm will be bringing the cold air to the party. Tomorrow night may be pretty wild even down into Philly.

After seeing two bombs on the NAM model, the Euro holding serve, GFS still showing moderate snows and the SREF models trending colder with identical precipitation amounts, its time. Time to go all in and up some amounts. 

From Allentown, PA to Newark (Rt 78) and NYC north, this will be an all snow event. areas south of there will start as snow, go over to a mix and rain, and then back to snow. Tomorrow night will produce heavy snows, possible thundersnow and snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour. A lot of that will be nowcasted, which I will post on twitter and facebook. 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS:

Philly south to NE MD: 1-3"

Philly North to 195 3-6" 

195 North to 78 6-10" 

78- NYC 10-12" 

Lower Hudson Valley - RT 91 in CT 12-20" 

RT 91 to East Coast 20-30"

these are my conservative numbers now. Pretty confident throwing these out there. 

follow laong on twitter and facebook tomorrow for up to the minute updates and things to keep an eye on.

Stay Safe

Oh- and a special shout out to Rose and Susan from BEI, thanks for following!

New England Historic Storm Taking Shape

If there is one thing that is pretty certain here, is that New England is going to get smoked. These estimates of 24-30" of snow are realistic. This is going to be an old fashioned, New England blizzard. For the rest of us, from NYC south, the uncertainty remains king. We are dealing with two separate low pressures. One, a disturbance diving out of Canada towards the East Coast. The other, a low pressure in the Gulf States. These two low pressures will phase, or merge, along the East Coast and move ENE around the "benchmark"

EDIT- I have mentioned the "benchmark" on several posts, but I have probably not done a good job explaining why this is important. The "benchmark" is located at 40N and 70W and the significance is that a large majority of winter storms pass over this area bringing the perfect balance of distance to bring the biggest storms.

So, the questions remain where exactly these two low pressures phase, how phased the evolving storm can intensify, speed of travel and track of the storm. Each model is still showing some different outcomes based on these variables. Each model is also able to pick up on subtle characteristics that are making the forecast very difficult. Overnight, the NAM model had zero snow for Philly. The GFS showed a couple inches for Philly and the Euro was like 6" for Philly. Whats more mind boggling is while Boston is looking at 30", NYC could very well hit 12" of snow, while Philly sits at zero. This is the type of spread we have. Any earlier phase, we could be looking at substantial snows. Any later, or a further east track, we will be looking at showers with next to nothing.

For now, I am going with snow starting very early tomorrow morning (5- 7 am). Late morning we switch to mixed precipitation and rain. Late afternoon we switch back to snow and may get some period of moderate snows. I think from 195 north to NYC, 3-6" can be expected while areas from 195 south to Philly can expect 1-3". This is based on my current thoughts, but confidence is still low on this. By tonight I will issue a final. Places in NW NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley 8-12" can be expected while areas to the east from I87 - I91  12-20" and then from I91-East Coast 20-30".

Please remember for those areas looking to get walloped that this will be a rapidly intensifying storm and the winds will be whipping. There is also a higher than normal chance for thundersnow. Snowfall rates will easily make 1-3"/hour in many locations, if not more. This will be a very intense and dangerous storm.

A Threat Looming?

A horrid winter trudges on for those loving snow. Each run of the models brings optimism and excitement, but this year usually leads to a let down. Rain  / snow line a bit west, north, temperatures a bit to warm, precipitation just not breaking out, the list continues.

Here we go once again. A lot of talks about a storm on Friday. The EURO had this for a number of consecutive runs (which usually means something). The GFS has now moved to the idea of a Noreaster taking shape on Friday. This does look to be a significant storm, and someone will get a lot of snow. Right now, my money is on New England. I will say this as well, the GFS has trended cooler each run which does mean, any cooler we too could be looking at snow here too. 

For now, a low pressure will phase with a northern stream disturbance off the coast of NC. From here, it will move up the east coast and come close to the "benchmark". The usual factors will need to be looked at here as always.....strong high pressure to the north, blocking, avail cold air, track, intensity etc. As for now, keep in your mind a storm is possible, with a lot of details to work out. 

12/28/2012 Evening Update

Well, what a turn of events on the weather modeling regarding tomorrows storm. Yesterday, we were looking at a storm that was tracking east of us far enough where there was no issues with precipitation type. We were getting snow, end of story. Today, things have changed. Each model run has brought a solution closer and closer to the coast, and also transferring energy and phasing energy sooner. All this leaves us in a position where we may actually have to worry about a changeover to a mix, or worse, rain.

Models have been showing this all day, and each run is more precipitation and further west (bringing in warmer air). I am kinda hoping there is a correction back a bit to the east on tonights runs, but not overly enthusiastic that happens. Tomorrow, it is very possible as of now, that coastal areas get a brief period of snow before a direct change to rain. That rain/snow line will then march northward and to what extent is unknown, it will just have to be watched in a nowcasting situation tomorrow. It will more than likely setup shop somewhere around interstate 95.

More to come.

Tomorrow Update

Well, there is a general consensus amongst the models on a moderate snow event Saturday. We will have snow moving in around daybreak and will fall for the majority of the daylight hours. As of now, I am thinking 2-4" area wide. Places towards the coast may be limited due to mixing issues.

There are some issues too that could lead to some changes as well. Currently, northern stream (from Canada) and southern stream lows (from S US) are going to move towards the area. A phase is expected to take place just off the Delaware / Virginia Coast. If this phase does not occur, we would probably have some snow showers move through with a dusting. If it phases further north, we would have a decreased amount of snow. Further south, we would have to see how fast it could intensify, how close to the coast (closer would push the rain/snow line further west) it would track.

As of now though, I am thinking 2-4" area wide.

updates as always on twitter (@townerswxage) and facebook (Towner's Weather PAGE).