March 6th and 7th 3/5/13 morning update

While the models all bring a decent amount of precipitation to the area, there will be a vast number of conditions experienced over the area. A few days ago, we were strictly talking about possible precipitation making it into the very southern part of NJ. Now, there is a lot of potential of serious talks about a mid atlantic and northeast snowstorm. While I dont think this will be an all out snowstorm from DC to Boston, I do think there will be areas where significant snow will fall. First and foremost, the biggest part of this storm will be the effects at the shore. High Winds, rain and high seas will cause more beach erosion and flooding. Please prepare for what you can if you have interests down there.

For our area, I am still up in the air. I think areas to our south, especially the western DC burbs, Western Virginia and West Virginia are going to get a good dumping. 12" can be expected there. I also think an area of 5-9" makes it along the DC-Baltimore corridor. Then, I can also see some heavier accumulations up into the New England area after the storm moves through our area. The areas in between, specifically the Philly to NYC to New Haven, CT corridor this is the iffy part. As the storm moves to the coast, the DC/Baltimore crew will reap the benefits of the snow. As it moves to the coast, it will undergo a change and unfortunately this will be the time it is over our area. The storm will not be "bombing out" and we will have easterly winds. When a storm hits the coast and "bombs out" we can sometimes see them draw in their own cold air, creating a really unstable atmosphere (i.e. the thundersnow we received a couple years ago) and change the precipitation to snow. This time, it will not be bombing out as much, the east winds will bring warmer air in from over the ocean and keep surface temps above freezing. Surface temperatures will not fall below freezing and will remain in the mid 30's. A majority of this precipitation will be falling during the daytime hours as well. This will lead to very minimal stickage on paved surfaces. Once the low can move and our winds switch to a more northerly direction, we can see some stickage, but at the point, I would be concerned with how much snow is left.

As of now, precipitation moves in around 7am. It will more than likely be a very wet snow that will have a tough time accumulating. As the day goes on, it may transition from rain to snow and back based upon  heavier bands. As the day goes on, it may be sloppy out and it will feel pretty raw. Once the sun sets, we may be able to pull out an inch or two of accumulation. More to come as this still is only a few pieces away from this being a bigger storm for the area. This is where I stand on this day, a snowy and raw day with little accumulation.

March 6th and 7th Update 3/4/13 Afternoon

I talked about model chicken going on earlier, and it appears a consensus is growing. While there is still a long road to go until the final outcome, indications today are the mighty EURO is caving and moving towards the GFS. Major models, excluding the Canadian, moved north today. NAM and GFS both are big hits for DC-Boston. Euro has moved further north and is on NYC's doorstep. The Euro now puts appreciable precipitation into the Central and Southern NJ area. The 20 million dollar question now becomes temperatures. We look to have appreciable precipitation moving in, but our temperatures are going to be MARGINAL at best for snow. In fact  the low pressure tracking to our south will bring an easterly wind to our area and bring air in off the ocean which is above freezing. Easterly winds and snow do not mix. Precipitation is also going to be coming in during the daytime hours and the sun angle is higher in March which will have a profound effect on accumulations on pavement. The caveat is that this could be a prolonged event and precipitation will last through the night (as modeled now). When the sun sets, if we can get temperatures cold enough for snow, we could see accumulations then.

Coastal areas are going to get hit again. I hate saying this, but an inch of water, winds 40-50mph and high seas are going to really hurt and hamper recovery efforts. There is little doubt that the shore areas will be hit hard regardless of what happens inland. Please make preparations down da shore if you own property down there.

Still a long way to go here, and a lot can happen. I am going to remain a little more conservative here until there is more compelling evidence one way or the other. I am increasingly more interested in this storm though because regardless, it has been a wild two days from nothing to a moderate to major threat for the area.

Anyways, here are some pics with the representation of events from the different models. (NOT FORECASTS, JUST SINGLE MODEL RUNS)

GFS Evening:

Surface low pressure:

Snowfall:

NAM Evening snowfall:

EURO Midday Snowfall: