March 6th and 7th Update 3/4/13 Afternoon

I talked about model chicken going on earlier, and it appears a consensus is growing. While there is still a long road to go until the final outcome, indications today are the mighty EURO is caving and moving towards the GFS. Major models, excluding the Canadian, moved north today. NAM and GFS both are big hits for DC-Boston. Euro has moved further north and is on NYC's doorstep. The Euro now puts appreciable precipitation into the Central and Southern NJ area. The 20 million dollar question now becomes temperatures. We look to have appreciable precipitation moving in, but our temperatures are going to be MARGINAL at best for snow. In fact  the low pressure tracking to our south will bring an easterly wind to our area and bring air in off the ocean which is above freezing. Easterly winds and snow do not mix. Precipitation is also going to be coming in during the daytime hours and the sun angle is higher in March which will have a profound effect on accumulations on pavement. The caveat is that this could be a prolonged event and precipitation will last through the night (as modeled now). When the sun sets, if we can get temperatures cold enough for snow, we could see accumulations then.

Coastal areas are going to get hit again. I hate saying this, but an inch of water, winds 40-50mph and high seas are going to really hurt and hamper recovery efforts. There is little doubt that the shore areas will be hit hard regardless of what happens inland. Please make preparations down da shore if you own property down there.

Still a long way to go here, and a lot can happen. I am going to remain a little more conservative here until there is more compelling evidence one way or the other. I am increasingly more interested in this storm though because regardless, it has been a wild two days from nothing to a moderate to major threat for the area.

Anyways, here are some pics with the representation of events from the different models. (NOT FORECASTS, JUST SINGLE MODEL RUNS)

GFS Evening:

Surface low pressure:

Snowfall:

NAM Evening snowfall:

EURO Midday Snowfall: