January 2-3, 2014 Storm Final Thoughts (Thursday AM)

Final thoughts are in. I am actually quite excited for this storm to get underway in the area. It has the "look" and "feel" out there of a big storm if there is such a thing. Temperatures have already started falling as I am currently sitting at 31 after a mornin temp of 34 during my drive into work this morning. 

Interaction between the polar and subtropical jets have started, now we just need to wait until the precipitation fills in. Areas up north in PA, NY, CT and MA already have snow falling. This is associated with the polar jet plunging south. 

Light snow showers will overspread the area this afternoon. Snow showers will be sparse at first but will fill in and intensify towards evening. Late evening and overnight snow will really pick up. Winds will also start cranking in response to a rapidly developing low pressure along the easy coast. Temperatures will also plummet to single digits in the north and the teens throughout the rest of the state and even to the coast!

Winds will be whipping the snow around and substantial drifting will occur. In addition, with cold temperatures (highs tomorrow in the low teens) salt will not have the same effect on the roads. It will be a lot harder to have the melting power  in the colder temps. 

Generally, I am looking for 2-4" across extreme SNJ, N DE and NE MD. 4-8" across much of CNJ including the Philly to Trenton area. I also like 6-10" across NNJ into the NYC area. Areas in CT 8-12"

The real wildcard here will be where some of the intense snow bands set up. Weather models have been showing them along the NJ coast (Ocean and Monmouth Counties) and over Long Island. They can set up anywhere, and getting stuck under them can raise snow amounts 2-4"

In any case, be safe and stay alert for warnings. I will be updating throughout the day! 

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Update 12/16/13 morning)

All models are showing a clipper moving into the area tomorrow morning bringing another round of snow for the area. This will be primarily an accumulating snow for areas north of S NJ - Philly line. Our area can expect probably on the order of 1-3" with 1" being in the lower areas and more as you go north. Areas north of Newark into the Lower Hudson Valley and CT could potentially be looking at 2-4". This will be another quick moving storm. Precipitation breaks out over the morning hours, and will wrap up during the afternoon.

Interesting tidbit on the noontime NAM model run, still has a little area that pops up tomorrow night as a second wave moves in, which focuses precipitation over S NJ. They could possible pick up another 1-2" down there assuming temperatures cooperate.

Once this passes through, temperatures will moderate through the rest of the week. Towards the end of the week and the weekend, we may have highs into the 50's over the C NJ area. Temperatures do look to once again get colder around Christmas.

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat

On the heels of a very good week for the snow lovers, we begin this week with a clipper threat heading our way for Tuesday. This will once again be a quick hitting storm, but will drop some accumulating snow in our area. Snow looks to move in during the late morning hours and then will be out by the evening. Models are also showing another disturbance that may move in overnight Tuesday and bring some more snow showers to the area. Generally speaking, this event will be a E PA, NJ, S NY up through the Northeast. More to come on this! Generally looking at a 1-3" / 2-4" type event.

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15 (Update FRIDAY PM)

So, I have stressed over the past two days about tight gradients. Today, models continued to show that in our area, 40 miles can really make the difference between no accumulations and quite possibly 6-10". We could really see something like Southern Bucks Co, PA with 2" while Northern Bucks County is getting 8" I cannot stress enough how close this will be. There will be some things that will be nowcasted tomorrow that could change things as well. I will be updating frequently throughout the day on facebook and twitter.

Some of the things I will be looking at tomorrow:

1. Miller B type storms (which this is) usually leads to some type of "dry slot". This is an area where there is a break in precipitation. When and where this happens will obviously have an effect.

2. Placement of high pressure in Canada (directly north of us). If it is closer to the Canada/US border, we could see the cold air hold on longer. If it migrates up to Quebec or farther north, we may have an earlier transition to sleet

3. Any banding that develops that can enhance snowfall totals. 

4. Where the primary low pressure dies and where the new one takes over. Either of these things can also effect our area

In any case, on to amounts. 

coastal areas of NJ, I am expecting an almost all rain event. Possibly some snow to start, but quickly to rain

inland from there, SNJ East of the NJ TP up to 195 I expect 1-3" then rain

PHL - Trenton - West of the NJTP 1-3" before turning over to a bit of sleet and then rain

just to the NW of PHL - Trenton- New Brunswick - Newark, NJ 3-6" mix then rain late

Areas of the Lehigh Valley, C PA , NW NJ, Lower Hudson Valley through S CT 6-10"

Central and Northern CT through MASS up through VT, NH and Maine generally 10-14"

These are my thoughts at this time. Tomorrow will be a nowcasting day and any changes can lead to significant changes. 

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15

The area will once again be looking at another storm moving in. This past week, many areas have eclipsed total snows from the last two years combined and we are looking at another storm adding to snow totals. We have a little different setup for this storm, which will make things interesting going into the weekend. We will have a low pressure system moving into the Ohio River Valley which will die off and transfer energy to a new low pressure along the coast. The big questions for our area will be, where does the initial low pressure die off, and where does the new low form. Having a low pressure to your west will spell temperature disaster if it holds on longer than projected, and likewise, if it dies earlier and the new low forms earlier, temperatures can be more favorable for snow. These storms have led to numerous issues that have happened before, and have both worked against us and for us.

As it is modeled now, it appears we will have a period of snow Saturday afternoon and evening before temperatures rise high enough to transition to mixed precipitation and then rain by early Sunday morning. We would be in for a couple inches of snow before the transition. Areas in NE PA, NW NJ, North of NYC and mid to northern area of CT will do very well with this storm. Its the areas south of those that will have the battles going on.

The NAM model has been the warmest of most models and keeps the low pressure tucked into the coastal region, while the EURO and GFS models keep the low pressure about 150-200 miles out into the ocean. The NAM would have a quicker transition to rain while the EURO and GFS will allow for a little more snow. I will be watching to see if any of those models begin to shift toward the other. In any case, all show a start of snow and a couple inch accumulation.

There will be more to come with this over the next two days, so stay tuned and enjoy the cold weather today and tomorrow!

Another Round Of Heavy Rain And Severe Weather

A vigorous disturbance moves in tomorrow bringing more flooding rains. This time though, this will be accompanied by severe weather. Heavy rains will blanket the area, although more may fall north from NNJ/NYC through New England. 2-4" will be a good bet up there. Further south, we are looking at another 1-2" but will take the brunt of the severe weather. Heavy rains, dangerous lightning, strong winds, hail and even a tornado threat will be present. I will have more to come on this in a more detailed post this evening. Tomorrow is looking nasty! 

Another Surprise Today?

Not as likely, but temperatures are around 30 degrees. Temperatures that low, combined with a dew point in the mid teens will allow todays precipitation to start out as snow. Gradually, it will changeover to a mix and rain. A large majority of the precipitation for us in Central NJ will be rain. For areas north and west, it will be a different story. Snow and ice will rule the day and night. Areas in the Poconos, NW NJ and into NY and CT have a real mess on their hands. Areas even further north into Upstate NY and Northern New England can see up to a foot of snow! Not bad for late March.

Current Warnings (Pink)
Current Advisories (Blue)

Inverted Trough Event 3/7/13 Morning Update

Well, yesterday was a prime example of what can happen when you are off on a couple variables needed for snow. The upper atmosphere was very conducive to snow, but an east wind kept surface temperatures above freezing, and kept the precipitation mainly rain with embedded snow/ice. A day of temperatures around 40 degrees kept the ground warm where even when it switched to snow last night, it was too warm to stick. Can this winter be over already?

There is a disturbance moving through the Great Lakes now that will act to cause an inverted trough from last nights storm. The disturbance will cause the trough from yesterday's storm to become inverted and act to pull back moisture from yesterday's storm. Precip is breaking out already in New England and coastal sections of NJ. This will continue to build through the day. I will monitor the situation and keep you posted. There can be some accumulations throughout the area, especially in New England and Eastern NY.

March 6th and 7th 3/5/13 morning update

While the models all bring a decent amount of precipitation to the area, there will be a vast number of conditions experienced over the area. A few days ago, we were strictly talking about possible precipitation making it into the very southern part of NJ. Now, there is a lot of potential of serious talks about a mid atlantic and northeast snowstorm. While I dont think this will be an all out snowstorm from DC to Boston, I do think there will be areas where significant snow will fall. First and foremost, the biggest part of this storm will be the effects at the shore. High Winds, rain and high seas will cause more beach erosion and flooding. Please prepare for what you can if you have interests down there.

For our area, I am still up in the air. I think areas to our south, especially the western DC burbs, Western Virginia and West Virginia are going to get a good dumping. 12" can be expected there. I also think an area of 5-9" makes it along the DC-Baltimore corridor. Then, I can also see some heavier accumulations up into the New England area after the storm moves through our area. The areas in between, specifically the Philly to NYC to New Haven, CT corridor this is the iffy part. As the storm moves to the coast, the DC/Baltimore crew will reap the benefits of the snow. As it moves to the coast, it will undergo a change and unfortunately this will be the time it is over our area. The storm will not be "bombing out" and we will have easterly winds. When a storm hits the coast and "bombs out" we can sometimes see them draw in their own cold air, creating a really unstable atmosphere (i.e. the thundersnow we received a couple years ago) and change the precipitation to snow. This time, it will not be bombing out as much, the east winds will bring warmer air in from over the ocean and keep surface temps above freezing. Surface temperatures will not fall below freezing and will remain in the mid 30's. A majority of this precipitation will be falling during the daytime hours as well. This will lead to very minimal stickage on paved surfaces. Once the low can move and our winds switch to a more northerly direction, we can see some stickage, but at the point, I would be concerned with how much snow is left.

As of now, precipitation moves in around 7am. It will more than likely be a very wet snow that will have a tough time accumulating. As the day goes on, it may transition from rain to snow and back based upon  heavier bands. As the day goes on, it may be sloppy out and it will feel pretty raw. Once the sun sets, we may be able to pull out an inch or two of accumulation. More to come as this still is only a few pieces away from this being a bigger storm for the area. This is where I stand on this day, a snowy and raw day with little accumulation.

Friday 2/15/2013 Morning Update

For tonight, expect a possible period of rain showers, snow showers and possible a little light snow to develop. This will not last long and will be out by the morning. Tomorrow, models have trended away from the idea of a coastal storm, so as of now, may be time to cancel the idea of a snowfall for this weekend. Models are keeping this storm pretty far off shore. It will really strengthen once it is beyond us. Eastern New England may get some effects of it, but we should be clear.

If anything changes on it, I will drop a note on here to let you know. 

Monday February 11, 2013 Morning Discussion

Some areas this morning had icy conditions. Areas from Central Jersey south have transitioned to all rain as temperatures have risen well above freezing. A frontal boundary is moving through with a low pressure to our west. With that setup, we get flooded with warmer air aloft and eventually down to the surface. Areas further north that have a substantial amount of snow will stay with the freezing rain a little longer due to the fact that your surface temperatures are colder due to the snow. Eventually, all areas will transition to plain rain.

A lot going on this week. First, for the period Wednesday and Thursday we have a potential coastal storm development. Most models have some sort of storm (although they get here through different tracks) for our area. The usual questions remain; track, intensity etc. Biggest question for me right now is surface temperatures. As it looks now, would more than likely be a mix to snow for Central Jersey and snow north and west. Coastal areas would be rain and some backside snows possibly. Hopefully over the next day we can nail this down.

Then to the weekend. This would be the period from Saturday Night through Sunday Night. We have another modeled storm that could be a bit more substantial. A lot to work out with this storm, and I am going to focus on the Wednesday - Thursday storm first. There is potential though for another coastal storm. We have had a number of storms affect our area during the Presidents weekend time frame, and this could be another case.