Friday 2/15/2013 Morning Update

For tonight, expect a possible period of rain showers, snow showers and possible a little light snow to develop. This will not last long and will be out by the morning. Tomorrow, models have trended away from the idea of a coastal storm, so as of now, may be time to cancel the idea of a snowfall for this weekend. Models are keeping this storm pretty far off shore. It will really strengthen once it is beyond us. Eastern New England may get some effects of it, but we should be clear.

If anything changes on it, I will drop a note on here to let you know. 

Recap And The Weekend Ahead

Surface temperatures yesterday during the day really hampered our efforts to get a good accumulating snow. Even when the snow rates increased, it was tough to accumulate due to the surface warmth and the water that had already accumulated on the ground. If we have had that snow a week ago when our highs were in the 20's, we would have had a nice little event. Anyways, time to move on.

I wrote earlier this week about the potential for a storm this weekend. It was being shown on the models a couple days ago, and then went away. Well, the idea of a weekend storm are back. The noon time runs today are showing the potential to be there for our area into the Northeast. These periods of time when multiple storms are showing up on models, it becomes difficult for them to key in on each one. This is one of the reasons why I have felt that it was possible for this weekend, because the positioning of a lot of other elements are present. Sometimes it just takes one storm to conclude before models pick up on the other pieces of energy. 

A quick look at the midday model runs has the GFS showing a very nice coastal storm taking shape of the coast in the southeast moving up the coast (moderate storm). The NAM is similar (although not totally honed in yet) and the Canadian model also shows an event like the NAM. The Euro just came out, and has an event, but much lighter. I have not looked at surface temps on each preceding them, but tomorrow is supposed to be warm. In addition, a arctic trough will be settling in just before or concurrent for the storm. Things may get interesting. 

I will have more to come over the day and a more detailed post tonight. Just be prepared that a significant storm can potentially come to fruition within a couple days. 

Happy Valentines Day to everyone! 

Monday 2/11/2013 Afternoon Update

Wednesdays storm looks a little better today on the weather models. Every major model has precipitation into Central Jersey. The big question is going to be precipitation type. Surface temperatures are looking questionable for the start of the storm. may be one of those situations of a mix to snow. At this point, more focused on the threat of a storm than precip types. Credit to the GFS this storm, it has been onto this for a couple days and it appears other models are moving towards it.

The other aspect which has looked really good on the models this morning is for this weekend. I mentioned this morning about the potential for a potent storm, and it is showing up on models. This storm has some serious potential for the area. The GFS model showed a very nice hit and the Euro has some improving pieces (but not quite there yet). The British UKMET model is all over this already and shows an absolute bomb! Tally ho! I really think this will be the one. The overall pattern supports it, and I think tonight's run of the EURO will have it finally.

Just an FYI, sometimes when I tweet out an update from a model run, I am not very specific and you probably see some weird times etc. The major models I look at are all based off Greenwich meantime. You will see a lot of times 00z, 18z etc etc. Those times are the time (2400 military) minus 5 hours (for eastern standard time). So, the 00z NAM run would really be the model run from 7pm, 6z is the 1am run etc.  There is an entire page on my blog devoted to the models and the time the DATA comes out. Some are used in the short range, some are more long term. Here is the link:

WEATHER MODEL INFORMATION (CLICK LINK)

More to come! As always, any questions, let me know.