Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15 (Update FRIDAY PM)

So, I have stressed over the past two days about tight gradients. Today, models continued to show that in our area, 40 miles can really make the difference between no accumulations and quite possibly 6-10". We could really see something like Southern Bucks Co, PA with 2" while Northern Bucks County is getting 8" I cannot stress enough how close this will be. There will be some things that will be nowcasted tomorrow that could change things as well. I will be updating frequently throughout the day on facebook and twitter.

Some of the things I will be looking at tomorrow:

1. Miller B type storms (which this is) usually leads to some type of "dry slot". This is an area where there is a break in precipitation. When and where this happens will obviously have an effect.

2. Placement of high pressure in Canada (directly north of us). If it is closer to the Canada/US border, we could see the cold air hold on longer. If it migrates up to Quebec or farther north, we may have an earlier transition to sleet

3. Any banding that develops that can enhance snowfall totals. 

4. Where the primary low pressure dies and where the new one takes over. Either of these things can also effect our area

In any case, on to amounts. 

coastal areas of NJ, I am expecting an almost all rain event. Possibly some snow to start, but quickly to rain

inland from there, SNJ East of the NJ TP up to 195 I expect 1-3" then rain

PHL - Trenton - West of the NJTP 1-3" before turning over to a bit of sleet and then rain

just to the NW of PHL - Trenton- New Brunswick - Newark, NJ 3-6" mix then rain late

Areas of the Lehigh Valley, C PA , NW NJ, Lower Hudson Valley through S CT 6-10"

Central and Northern CT through MASS up through VT, NH and Maine generally 10-14"

These are my thoughts at this time. Tomorrow will be a nowcasting day and any changes can lead to significant changes.