Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Tuesday AM Update)

Overnight model runs have concluded and now I am looking forward towards today noon model runs. Last night, I explained on facebook where we were before the model runs. Overnight, the NAM was less amped, the GFS moved a bit west (but overall had a much better organization). The EURO was pretty steadfast on its track showing a front end thump of snow and then a transition to a mix and possibly rain. Today the models continued down the same roads and the NAM, GFS and Canadian models all bring in a period of sleet/mix/rain to CNJ.

With that, it has become more and more clear that our area will see some transition over to sleet/mix/rain etc. The projected track (on any of the models) will make it very difficult for us to remain all snow. Areas NW of 95 should do really well and will cash in with widespread areas of 12"+. Those areas would be places like Reading, the Lehigh Valley, NE PA and possibly NW NJ. I think areas down in CNJ are looking at a nice front end thump of snow 4-8" (possibly more) and then a transition over to sleet/mix and then possibly rain. There could also be a change back to all snow on the tail end. Coastal areas, there is a full moon expected as well Thursday, and with a developing low pressure coming up the coast, spells disaster for coastal flooding. 

In any case, a shift in the models by 50 miles east could make quite a difference. Same with a shift 50 miles west. With that, those are my general ideas. There will be more updates to come. We are still 36 hours away so there is some time for some wiggles. If you know anyone down in the NE Georgia, Central SC and NC areas, they will be receiving an epic ice storm. Make sure those down there are prepared and follow their latest forecasts down there. We still have people up this way without power from our storm last Wednesday. Also, areas not accustomed to snow could be in for some surprises as well (South Central VA, W NC etc). Also, DC looks to actually be in a pretty decent spot up our way for a pretty decent storm as well. 

More to come