Halloween / Sandy Update

Ok, so some recap here for the morning. We have Tropical Storm Sandy south of Jamaica. Sandy is currently packing 45 mph sustained winds.  Sandy is probed to become a Hurricane Wednesday Night into Thursday, before making landfall in Jamaica. Sandy is entering into very favorable conditions for strengthening. here is the morning update from the National Hurricane Center:

So, from here, Sandy will move across Jamaica, Cuba and then through the Bahamas. From there is when we will really have to start watching what happens. I explained the first part of the puzzle yesterday was solved when Sandy was born. We will now have to monitor weather modeling. Some of the things I will be looking at is the Gulf of Alaska. Here is a key feature that will determine, ultimately, if Sandy will be able to head up the coast or if she moves off shore. If we can get this disturbance to be on the stronger side, it will create a ridge in the west, which means a trough in the east which will allow Sandy to move up the coast and phase with the Arctic jet. If the disturbance in the GOA is weaker, it will keep the ridge more progressive and flat, essentially allowing Sandy to move off shore and threaten Bermuda. 

From there, assuming we can get a stronger impulse in the GOA, we will then have to take a look at blocking downstream which would prevent Sandy from escaping East and slow her down. From there, we would then have to see how she would interact with the Arctic and Polar jets as far as a phase could go. In any case, its going to be a wild ride. Euro model still showing a monster, indications of the GFS model maybe wavering a bit westward and the Canadian Model still showing a bomb. FYI too, just so you know what kind of system we are dealing with, the Euro model also drops 36" of SNOW in Western PA!!!! Not saying that is going to happen, but this has the potential to be a very dynamic and powerful storm. Here is the snow graphic from last nights' Euro model: