Sunday, February 26, 2012
The long and the short of the system is the low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley and then redevelop off the Atlantic seaboard. We are a long way away from this, but this may be the last hurrah in an otherwise lame winter.
Wednesday Night-> Thursday
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Friday, February 17, 2012
Southern NJ should see some accumulating snows. The jury is still out for Philly up to central NJ. Anyways, more to come.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Most of the week this storm was being shown to be suppressed south of our area and then harmlessly scoot out to sea. This track would have allowed Va, Md and DC to cash in on a good sized storm.
Over the past day, there is now enough information to follow it as models are showing this does have the potential to effect the area, although the magnitude is far from certain.
More to come
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Purcellville, VA Thundersnow
Very good article on what a Nurlon trough is and the intenisty they can bring:
Nurlon Trough Info
Friday, February 10, 2012
In any case, the landscape should be white when you wake up in the morning. Another interesting feature with this event will be tomorrow night. Cold air will blast into the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. With it, there is a chance we will have a Nurlon trough pass through the region. The troughs usually produce and rather heavy period of precipitation. The neat thing is, they are only produced over a small area. Forecasting where these troughs set up are extremely tough and usually has to be nowcasted (as it happens). These are caused by clashing air masses which will be present tomorrow. In addition, the cold air, will drop temperatures well below freezing and cause any standing water or slush to freeze.
More to come as needed
Still some questions remain for the area, but as I see it going down now, we will have rain and snow mixed to start late tonight. This will transition to all snow by daybreak. It will likely remain all snow until 8-9am.
Amounts will range from 1-3", with 1 being areas further south and 3" being further north. North of NYC thru CT will do fairly well, 2-4".
Big question now is, can we overcome the high temperatures in the area today ranging from the mid 40's to the Upper 40's? Accumulations will primarily be over the grassy areas, unless we can get a good thump to overcome pave t temps.
Tomorrow night will become downright cold, so any standing water will freeze.
More to come!
Thursday, February 9, 2012
May be some issues with this run though, notice all the low pressures? Eventually, we should see a consolidated low pressure. Having those many lows MAY have contributed to some of the temp issues.....we shall see on future runs on the NAM:
Verbatim, we would make out with a couple inches of snow, while areas in New England could have 6+ inches. Again, this is one model. If it develops later, we would not get much, but if it can develop earlier, say around the coast of Delaware, we could be in for the biggest storm of the year (not saying too much by that).
More to come. Next up will be the midday GFS run (~1130am) and then the Euro (~1pm) and then the evening runs starting late afternoon!
More to come!
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
More to come!
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
still waiting for it to start :)
In any case, it appears he was on to something. Have a light snow
chance tomorrow into tomorrow night. Nothing major, probably a coating
up north to up to 1" down south.
The real show starts this weekend into next week as models are showing
some of the coldest air of the season heading our way. With this,
will even be some chances at some storms.