Sunday, February 26, 2012

Wednesday / Thursday

Going to start watching a system moving into the area Wednesday into Thursday. I am not entirely impressed with out chances but model runs have shown some more promise recently than over the past couple days.

The long and the short of the system is the low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley and then redevelop off the Atlantic seaboard. We are a long way away from this, but this may be the last hurrah in an otherwise lame winter.

Wednesday Night-> Thursday

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Lame Winters

Make me get excited about taking pictures of a snow squall moving
in.... Yeah, it's that kind of winter.

Although it looks cool, kinda like a thunderstorm in the distance!

Lake Effect Streamers

Lake Effect snows have developed and the intense winds are bringing some of the streamers close to the area. Over the next hour, there may be a band that sets up over the area. Here is the current radar in motion:

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Warm Today...Warmer Tomorrow?

While highs will reach the lower 60's today, tomorrow there is a real possibility that we could have high temperatures between 70-75 degrees! Enjoy it while you can!

Friday, February 17, 2012

Late Weekend Update

Game over for this one. Every major model has this thing so suppressed even DC may be out of it.

With our luck these past few winters, I guess we were due for one like this. Time is running out on our snow chances here!

Late Weekend Update

Looking more and more like the northern part of the area will be on the outside looking in for this weekend. Models continue to show a suppressed storm not really moving any further north as of now. Even the NAM model which is the furthest north with the precipitation keeps measurable precipitation to central NJ as its most northern point. Most models are showing the northern extent of precipitation makes it to very southern NJ.

Southern NJ should see some accumulating snows. The jury is still out for Philly up to central NJ. Anyways, more to come.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Late Weekend Update

Modeling today has kept a supressed storm idea, meaning the storm for this weekend will develop off the NC coast and move due East away from impacting our area. I will still be watching it, but as of now, it does not appear to have any impact on us for the weekend. Places in VA, WV, DC and MD look like they will cash in with a decent sized storm!

Late Weekend

Going to have to watch a system poised to move into the area on Sunday. This storm will develop a low pressure off the North Carolina Coast and then depending on which way it moves will determine the magnitude for the area.

Most of the week this storm was being shown to be suppressed south of our area and then harmlessly scoot out to sea. This track would have allowed Va, Md and DC to cash in on a good sized storm.

Over the past day, there is now enough information to follow it as models are showing this does have the potential to effect the area, although the magnitude is far from certain.

More to come

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Richmond, VA Thundersnow

Richmond, VA had some thundersnow caught on video today, here is the link...thunder starts at :26


Cold air is on the march from Western PA towards the east coast. With this distrubance, snow has been accompanying it. I had mentioned last night about a Nurlon Trough potentially moving through as well. Both look to be heading to the east. In fact, the volatility of the squall lines is already impressive. Below is a video from Purcellville, VA. An intense squall came through and actually had some thunder with it. In any case, this is a very real potential to happen here. These squalls will last 20-30 minutes and will be accompanied by very heavy snows. More to come as this moves to the east....just wanted to let everyone know we may have another round move through this evening.

Purcellville, VA Thundersnow

Very good article on what a Nurlon trough is and the intenisty they can bring:

Nurlon Trough Info

Friday, February 10, 2012

Friday Night Update

Rain showers have overspread a number of locations in the area. Temperatures are still in the mid 30's throughout the area. While there will be a transition to snow overnight, any accumulation will more than likely be confined to grassy areas and car tops. It will be tough to accumulate on pavement following a day in the upper 40's. This could be overcome by high precipitation rates, which I am not seeing with this event. I am still pretty confident of a snowfall from 1-3" region wide.

In any case, the landscape should be white when you wake up in the morning. Another interesting feature with this event will be tomorrow night. Cold air will blast into the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. With it, there is a chance we will have a Nurlon trough pass through the region. The troughs usually produce and rather heavy period of precipitation. The neat thing is, they are only produced over a small area. Forecasting where these troughs set up are extremely tough and usually has to be nowcasted (as it happens). These are caused by clashing air masses which will be present tomorrow. In addition, the cold air, will drop temperatures well below freezing and cause any standing water or slush to freeze.

More to come as needed

Rather impressive!

Came across this today... Truly amazing! I have no idea what they are
saying, but impressive snowfall in Romania

Tonight/Tomorrow Update

*** National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for Southern Counties***** I assume they will be issued shortly for the remaining counties in NJ.

Still some questions remain for the area, but as I see it going down now, we will have rain and snow mixed to start late tonight. This will transition to all snow by daybreak. It will likely remain all snow until 8-9am.

Amounts will range from 1-3", with 1 being areas further south and 3" being further north. North of NYC thru CT will do fairly well, 2-4".

Big question now is, can we overcome the high temperatures in the area today ranging from the mid 40's to the Upper 40's? Accumulations will primarily be over the grassy areas, unless we can get a good thump to overcome pave t temps.

Tomorrow night will become downright cold, so any standing water will freeze.

More to come!

Latest NAM run

Mid morning NAM (930am) run much cooler for the are! Gonna get interesting! More updates around 1pm!

Weekend Update Early Friday Model Runs

early morning model runs havent really cleared anything up yet. The NAM and GFS are still pretty different for this part of the game. The GFS has been saying the same thing for a couple runs in a row, a start of rain to snow and possibly 1-3" while the NAM still showing a strung out mess bringing in nothing more than some rain and backend end snow showers.



Hopefully we can get some of this cleared up with the remaining model runs mid morning and afternoon. More to come!

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Nighttime GFS Model

Looking much better than the NAM model. Has one low, and albeit we
start as some rain, it transitions to snow and creates a moderate
event for the area (for this year).

More to come!

Nighttime NAM Model

NAM model held serve in the evening from its noontime run. However, tonight, it actually looked better with the amount of precipitation, but the issue with the run was temperature profiles do not support snow. In other words, it was too warm, and is a rain event. Areas in NW NJ and the ABE-Pocono region in PA still look pretty good as far as snow goes.

Next up is the GFS run at 1130 and the EURO model at 1am. More to come.

May be some issues with this run though, notice all the low pressures? Eventually, we should see a consolidated low pressure. Having those many lows MAY have contributed to some of the temp issues.....we shall see on future runs on the NAM:

Weekend Potential

watching a system for this weekend. The midday NAM model run shows a developing low pressure off the coast of Jersey and moving up into New England. This is the lone model showing this, and it may be a blip, may be a start where other models come around to it.

Verbatim, we would make out with a couple inches of snow, while areas in New England could have 6+ inches. Again, this is one model. If it develops later, we would not get much, but if it can develop earlier, say around the coast of Delaware, we could be in for the biggest storm of the year (not saying too much by that).

More to come. Next up will be the midday GFS run (~1130am) and then the Euro (~1pm) and then the evening runs starting late afternoon!

More to come!

Wednesday, February 8, 2012


Winter Weather Advisories are posted for parts of Central and Southern NJ. Basically a nuisance event with areas poised to receive a coating - 2". Snow will begin this afternoon and continue into the late evening. Snow has already started in Central PA in State College, York and Lancaster.

More to come!

Tuesday, February 7, 2012


The groundhog has spoken. 6 more weeks of winter. Personally, I am
still waiting for it to start :)

In any case, it appears he was on to something. Have a light snow
chance tomorrow into tomorrow night. Nothing major, probably a coating
up north to up to 1" down south.

The real show starts this weekend into next week as models are showing
some of the coldest air of the season heading our way. With this,
will even be some chances at some storms.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Saturday Night

There is a chance for some light snows Saturday Night, mainly for Central Jersey South. Trenton will be on the northern edge. Areas from Baltimore to Wilimington to AC  will be the "sweet" spot, although nothing spectacular, but anything goes in this pattern.