Friday, January 31, 2014

The Week Ahead

So, I have gotten a couple questions on the rumors of a big snow storm for the weekend. The rumor was for 40"+ for NJ and we were going to get "epic" snows etc. Lets put this to bed now. It is not going to happen. First off, the map that everyone was looking at was a low resolution European model, that I have not even heard about until I saw the same graphic many of you did. In addition, it was a cumulative snowfall forecast from 3 days ago through Feb 12th. So, it would not be one storm, but over that period. While I am a firm believer on early warning and giving the heads up to people on impending storms, there is a time for tempered posts. If you are looking at one model run for a storm that is 11 days away, wouldn't you want to see some consistency with the model runs, and consistency with other models? None of those features happened and one run of the model ran like wildfire through social media. To me, its more important to to be right than hype. A storm 11 days away that does not have run to run consistency or other model support is pure hype. Its putting the goggles on for what YOU want to see. In any case, I am off this topic. 

We are transitioning now from a deep cold in which we were in the midst of the arctic trough. The trough will be relaxing back north and we are going to be heading into a more split flow across the area. This active pattern will lead the way on a number of storm chances coming up this week. The problem with this setup though will be the storm tracks and cold air. While our chances increase for storms, so does the volatility of the forecast. We are back into the challenging storm track, rain/snow line, mix precipitation etc. And, with the number of storms that will be present, long range forecasting will be challenged because everything will be based upon the setup from the previous storm. In other words, if a variable changes with storm 1, storm 2 will change on the models, along with storm 3 etc, etc. The best approach will be to take it one storm at a time. 

As of now, Saturday and Sunday both like nice, with temperatures well above freezing. Our next storm will impact the area on Monday, but the spread of solutions is still really wild. The GFS model keeps all precipitation to the south, will the NAM brushes S NJ, the Canadian is a bit further north and gives the area a period of light to moderate snow and the EURO is the furthest north and brings rain into the equation from about Philly East and route 78 south. So, my approach over the next week will be to take storms one at a time. The period looks active, but storms will be changing every run on the models. Stay tuned as I will be posting updates as needed!

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Special Weather Statement For Snow Tonight

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-01-28T15:16:00GMT-0500
2014-01-28T17:15:00GMT-0500
...A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND FALL AT ITS GREATEST INTENSITY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL END BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO ONE INCH, WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE IN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 95 IN DELMARVA. THE REGION IS GOING TO BE CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. THE SNOW WILL STICK INSTANTLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND MAKE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. IF DRIVING OVERNIGHT, GIVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. ALSO GIVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE DRIVING EARLY.
Camden; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Somerset; Western Monmouth
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Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Wind Chill Advisory For The Area Today - Bundle Up!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ060>062-
070-071-101>106-221600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140122T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
328 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.
LIMIT YOUR TIME OUT OF DOORS. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD AND
WIND COULD RESULT IN FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

$$

IOVINO

Monday, January 20, 2014

Tuesday / Wednesday Storm (Monday Afternoon Update)

I am actually quite impressed with this storm, and we are still 18 hours from go time. Models have been very consistent with this storm, so confidence is pretty high with this one. One thing that has been showing up on the models once again today is the effects of the banding that will setup. To illustrate that, here are two models depicting banding. Now, where exactly they set up will be the mystery. I am also very confident they will setup across NJ. The first model here is the RGEM model (Canada) showing a band setting up across central areas of NJ (yellow stripe). 


The second is the NAM (American)  model. Now, this is a 1 hour shot of a potential band (yes, that's 3.5" per hour) in the speck in Monmouth / Ocean County. Other areas are still very significant 1 hour rates:


So, as you can see, we are dealing with a VERY potent system. Models have been depicting over and over again for about .5-.75" inches water over the area, so that would translate to a good snowfall of 6-10" With that, I am raising my expected accumulations to 6-10" as a base. I am also going to say, if you get stuck under a band, you will be looking at 8-12" of snow. I even think there could be some areas along coastal sections of NJ (Monmouth Ocean Counties) that could go over 12" of snow. With winds gusting as well in the 20mph range, blowing snow will be a concern. I also think there will be locations reporting thundersnow tomorrow evening into the night as the low pressure really bombs out in the Atlantic. 

I will also preface this by saying, when we have strong lifting creating bands of snow, there will be other areas that will have very light precipitation. So, I think there will be a sharp cutoff to areas in NW NJ and NE PA. I truly believe this will be a I-95 special from DC to Boston. 

As always, updates will be coming on facebook and twitter. I will post a blog posting after the nightime model runs as well. 

Tuesday / Wednesday Storm (Monday Noon Update)

24 hours ago, we were looking at being on the northern fringes of a developing clipper. Originally, we were looking at a nice light snowfall on the order of 1-3". Over the past 24 hours, this has grown into a rather potent system which will bring another plowable snowfall to the area. The developing clipper will now make it to the coast where it will rapidly deepen and throw back a decent amount of snows from DC to Boston. It will be a fairly quick moving storm (12 hours) but it will drop some fairly impressive snows. as of now, look like the snow will start around 1pm Tuesday and last until around 1am Wednesday.

An Arctic front will move through tonight keeping temperatures in the 20's tomorrow. This should be an all snow event, with no chance of mixing. Snow will work in around 1pm and will probably start sticking pretty quickly. Snow will really start picking up during the afternoon. Travel will quickly become treacherous and rush hour tomorrow will be pretty nasty. Snow will continue through the evening into the night and will last until the early morning hours on Wednesday. As of now, I am looking at 4-6" of snow area wide, with potential for more in any banding that sets up.

Any time we have a developing low pressure along the coast, we will have to watch the exact area where it develops. This will coincide with where the best precipitation will develop. As of now, it is modeled to set up in a prime area for snows. This is a prime I-95 storm. Depending how fast the low pressure can develop, heavy snow bands can enter the area, along with thundersnow. Of course, exact development area will dictate where those bands set up.

A quick update on models. Last night, models began to really show the potential. All models were showing a decent event, minus the NAM model. This morning, the NAM began to see it as well, and now all models are showing a decent storm. The Euro model last night was showing a lighter event, with mostly 2" up to about 195 in NJ and less above that. Will be interested to see what it shows at noon today. The Euro is the last hold out.

As always, more to come. I will update again in the afternoon and night!

Winter Storm Watch Tuesday/Wednesday Issued

Winter Storm Watch (New Jersey)
2014-01-20T05:24:00GMT-0500
2014-01-22T01:00:00GMT-0500
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...AND ALL OF DELAWARE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.
Atlantic; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Camden; Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth
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Saturday, January 11, 2014

Heads Up!

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-01-11T14:30:00GMT-0500
2014-01-11T16:00:00GMT-0500
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMDEN...CECIL...

DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...KENT...NEW CASTLE...NORTHERN QUEEN ANNE`S...

NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...NORTHWESTERN KENT...PHILADELPHIA...SALEM...

SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS...SOUTHEASTERN HUNTERDON...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN CHESTER...SOUTHWESTERN SOMERSET...WESTERN BURLINGTON AND WESTERN MERCER COUNTIES...

AT 225 PM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM LOMBARD TO HILLSMERE SHORES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR MARSHALLTON...TOUGHKENAMON...AND KENNETT SQUARE AROUND 240 PM...WEST GOSHEN...WEST CHESTER...NEWARK...AND KINGSTOWN AROUND 250 PM...DEVON-BERWYN AND KING OF PRUSSIA AROUND 300 PM.
Camden; Cumberland; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington
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Possible Strong Winds Later

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-01-11T11:43:00GMT-0500
2014-01-11T20:00:00GMT-0500
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...

LATER TODAY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MIGHT START DEVELOPING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS ABOVE THE GROUND ARE GOING TO BE VERY STRONG. IF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE, THIS WOULD INCREASE THEIR ABILITY TO MIX THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN DELMARVA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EVEN WITHOUT THE THUNDERSTORMS, WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY COULD EASILY REACH AROUND 30 MPH. IF YOU HAVE TRAVELING PLANS LATER TODAY, PLEASE BE ON THE ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY AND WOULD CAUSE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
Camden; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Somerset
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Thursday, January 9, 2014

Freezing Rain Advisory

Freezing Rain Advisory (New Jersey)
2014-01-09T15:26:00GMT-0500
2014-01-10T09:00:00GMT-0500
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEAR AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN. SOME SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE. * TIMING...SNOW COULD BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING. * IMPACTS...THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR BLACK ICE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. * WINDS...VARIABLE DIRECTION OF 5 MPH OR LESS. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
Camden; Cumberland; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Western Monmouth
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Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Flood Watch For An Ice Jam

Flash Flood Watch (New Jersey)
2014-01-08T10:21:00GMT-0500
2014-01-09T06:00:00GMT-0500
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE DELAWARE RIVER DUE TO AN ICE JAM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...ADJACENT TO THE DELAWARE RIVER...INCLUDING MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY...AND LOWER BUCKS AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * AN ICE JAM HAS DEVELOPED ON THE DELAWARE RIVER NEAR TRENTON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FEW MILES OF NEAR BANK FULL CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE ICE JAM. WHEN THIS ICE JAM BREAKS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WATER BEHIND THE JAM TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM. * TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO THE ICE JAM MAY NOT BREAK UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. * THOUGH IT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE HOW HIGH THE WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ONCE THE ICE JAM BREAKS...THERE IS A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. * NAVIGATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE, SUCH AS DOCKS, COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE RELEASE.
Mercer; Northwestern Burlington
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Thursday, January 2, 2014

January 2-3, 2014 Storm Final Thoughts (Thursday AM)

Final thoughts are in. I am actually quite excited for this storm to get underway in the area. It has the "look" and "feel" out there of a big storm if there is such a thing. Temperatures have already started falling as I am currently sitting at 31 after a mornin temp of 34 during my drive into work this morning. 

Interaction between the polar and subtropical jets have started, now we just need to wait until the precipitation fills in. Areas up north in PA, NY, CT and MA already have snow falling. This is associated with the polar jet plunging south. 

Light snow showers will overspread the area this afternoon. Snow showers will be sparse at first but will fill in and intensify towards evening. Late evening and overnight snow will really pick up. Winds will also start cranking in response to a rapidly developing low pressure along the easy coast. Temperatures will also plummet to single digits in the north and the teens throughout the rest of the state and even to the coast!

Winds will be whipping the snow around and substantial drifting will occur. In addition, with cold temperatures (highs tomorrow in the low teens) salt will not have the same effect on the roads. It will be a lot harder to have the melting power  in the colder temps. 

Generally, I am looking for 2-4" across extreme SNJ, N DE and NE MD. 4-8" across much of CNJ including the Philly to Trenton area. I also like 6-10" across NNJ into the NYC area. Areas in CT 8-12"

The real wildcard here will be where some of the intense snow bands set up. Weather models have been showing them along the NJ coast (Ocean and Monmouth Counties) and over Long Island. They can set up anywhere, and getting stuck under them can raise snow amounts 2-4"

In any case, be safe and stay alert for warnings. I will be updating throughout the day! 

Winter Storm Warning Now Issued

Winter Storm Warning (New Jersey)
2014-01-02T03:32:00GMT-0500
2014-01-03T13:00:00GMT-0500
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUS COLD...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THEN TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OUT TO SEA.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SOME RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON FROM PHILADELPHIA SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL SHOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS THURSDAY EVENING AS SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE. THIS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY FLUFFY SNOW AND AS WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS. ROAD PLOWING OPERATIONS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND ALSO SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND CREATES NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...STARTING OUT RANGING BETWEEN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON, THEN FALLING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS TONIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHERE TEMPERATURES START OUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, FLASH FREEZING CAN OCCUR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE SNOW INCREASES. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE A TIMES TONIGHT.
Atlantic; Camden; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth
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Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Winter Storm Watch Issued- NJ

Winter Storm Watch (New Jersey)
2014-01-01T14:35:00GMT-0500
2014-01-03T10:00:00GMT-0500
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUS COLD...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING. A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OUT TO SEA.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES ANTICIPATED. * TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SOME RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX LATER THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL SHOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS THURSDAY EVENING AS SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE. THIS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY FLUFFY SNOW AND AS WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SHOULD MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS. ROAD PLOWING OPERATIONS WOULD BE GREATLY AFFECTED, ESPECIALLY DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND ALSO SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM THURSDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING FRIDAY. * TEMPERATURES...STARTING OUT RANGING BETWEEN ABOUT THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN FALLING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHERE TEMPERATURES START OUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY, FLASH FREEZING CAN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE SNOW INCREASES. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE A TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT.
Atlantic; Camden; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth
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January 2-3, 2014 Storm (Wednesday Noon Update)

First, HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Well, here we are once again with a very challenging forecast which will more than likely go down to another nowcasting event. There are a number of moving parts to this storm, and the overall strength will not be known for some time. We have an interaction that will occur between the subtropical jet (currently the precipitation along the Gulf States and the Polar jet (currently the precipitation through the midwest into Detroit). As seen here:


As the storm progresses, we will see an interaction occur. When, and how quickly these parts interact and eventually phase, that will determine how much snow we are looking at. The NAM model paints an earlier phase and a bigger storm for our area, and the GFS model paints a later phase, and as a result, a bigger storm over New England. In any case, the GFS model still paints a plowable event for our area.

GFS model- Showing a quick intesification for our area, but moves out rather quickly in the next frame and hits NE.

1am Friday:
 Friday 7am: (notice brunt of the precip off shore and over eastern NE

NAM MODEL

Quicker phase, really hammers our area

 Still has moderate to heavy snow over our area at 7am Friday (notice our area has the brunt of the precip):



So, the big question will be when does this phase occur. And unfortunately, it will have to be now casted tomorrow night. Either case, we are looking at a storm which will drop a couple inches. Here is where I am now, if we get that earlier phase, I think our area would be looking at 6-10" of snow. If we get that later phase, I think we will be looking at 2-4 (SNJ) to 3-6 (CNJ-NNJ). Its going to be another thread the needle event, with another tough forecast. Don't be surprised to hear amounts going up and down by the media stations. I do believe that Watches and or Warnings will be issued for MT Holly's forecast area this afternoon. In addition, Areas just to our north, we may actually have the B word watches issued. Winds will definitely be a factor, and if they can get high enough, we may meet that criteria ("Blizzard conditions" technically occur when strong winds (at least 35 mph) combine with either falling snow or snow on the ground to reduce visibilities to 1/4 mile or less for at least three hours.)

The other dangerous part of this storm will be the temperatures. We are dealing with a polar airmass with this, so even though the morning tomorrow will be cool, temperatures will plummet tomorrow night and it could infact get down to the teens and be snowing, 20's all the way down to the coast. The danger with that, is #1, its cold and #2, salt does not work as well in much colder temperatures. #3, snow ratios will be higher (usually 1" water = 10" of snow). We could be looking at 15:1, 20:1 or higher! In any case, I am tuned and am looking forward to seeing this come together!