Monday, January 31, 2011
I am a snow lover, but I would rather have plain rain over ice any day. From Central PA to NE PA to NW NJ, Southern NY to CT there will be places that have over 1" of freezing rain. This will be devastating to those areas. If you have any friends or family in those areas, please make sure they are well prepared for whats to come. I had heard they are currently mobilizing power trucks from the SE US states to help out in hard hit areas. Early estimates are if you lose power, you wont have it for a week. The other scary party, with all the ice that falls and accumulates, the temperatures are going to plummet after this storm, so its not going to go anywhere. Please make sure friends and family members know where shelters are available if needed. I cannot stress enough how destructive and devastating this could be. Trees will come down, roads will be impassable and power will be lost, plain and simple. Expect the worst, plan for the best.
Areas just north of our area need to also be on the look out in case some of the other variables I talked about in my last post come to fruition. They could very well be looking at the devastating ice as well.
This will be a very dangerous storm and for this, I am glad we are on the outside looking in. Updates as needed, and i will also post any events of interest regarding the storm from outside out area.
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The only question now is when we go above freezing at the surface. right now, it appears that happens early am Wednesday. The variables are, it may stay cold longer if the cold high pressure in Canada is stronger, or the redevelopment on the coast happens early and further south. right now, it looks like we are all rain Wednesday morning. It will stay rain for the day and taper at night.
Rush hour Tuesday Evening and Wednesday morning may be difficult.
Any changes, i will be the first to say so.
Also, areas in northern Mercer County and Northern Monmouth, you may stay frozen a bit longer due to being further north.
yesterday. Some are trending with colder surface temperatures, meaning
we may have a longer period of frozen precipitation. I still do not
expect a large snow event, I think the ice will be the story. Snow
will break out, transition to sleet or freezing rain and the. Change
to plain rain.
We have a nice done of cold air over us now, and as the low pressure
moves through the Midwest and it pumps warm air into the cold some,
the cold will slowly erode away. Depending in how long it takes to
erode away will determine how long we are sleet or freezing rain.
I think areas in NE PA and NW NJ are in for a very significant to
catastrophic icing event. Areas further south are looking at a
moderate ice threat before changing to all rain.
Not to come with start times, amounts etc
Saturday, January 29, 2011
snow in CNJ. A low pressure is being modeled to move from the Western
US and cut up into the Great Lakes region. Anytime a low cuts to the
lake, it's not favorable. The ideal spot to be is on the western,
colder side of the low. Anytime you are on the eastern side,
temperatures will rise. The only hope of snow is to have a cold high
pressure anchored over E Canada to keep cold air over the region. Even
with that, it's only a matter of time before the warm air erodes the
With that, I think a quick couple inches of snow will happen, and then
a transition to a mix and then the event will primarily be a rain
Keep in mind, if temperatures actually get into the middle 40's, and
we get heavy rain, there will be serious flooding concerns with the
Anyways, things can change, but for now, I am not on this snow train.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
cannot be ruled out, at the most 1".
Next serious threat, next Wednesday. Both the American GFS model and
the Euro model are showing the developments of another coastal storm!
More to come in the following days!
Hope everyone enjoyed the storm yesterday, definetly a very memorable
storm that truely encompassed everything! Anyone that missed my
thundersleet and lightening video, here is the link from 1/26/11:
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
and occasional snows. Generally over the area 3-6" of snow has fallen.
Temperatures are hovering around the freezing mark now and will drop
later this evening and tonight. I would advise getting the first round
of shoveling done so you do not have an ice block underneath round 2s
I am becoming more and more impressed with round 2. This is going to
be really neat this evening and tonight. As if this storm wasn't
tricky enough, there appears to be a phase that may take place with
round 2 and a disturbance moving through the great lake areas. If this
happens, round 2 will dramatically bomb out off the SNJ coast and
through massive amounts of snow back over the area. A phase will also
act to stall the storm out and will really drop some heavy amounts.
Expect heavy snow tonight with 1-2"/hr snowfall rates, and I think
it's possible everyone can be in on some thunder and lightening
tonight over CNJ. This will be a very dynamic storm and I am really
impressed to see it coming together.
3-6" fallen already, I expect another 8-12" tonight!
More to come!
our area for much of the day is pushed SE of the area. Snow reported
in Atlantic City and rain in Cape May. There is also sleet reported
with light snow
On Long Island. needless to say, I think it's safe to say all of our
area will remain frozen all day.
With that, and based on the fact around 2" has accumulated already,
think it's time to up amounts. As long as the comma head and CCB
materializes as shown, I think a general 8-12" can be expected in the
I again feel a lull will develop late morning into the afternoon.
Heavy snow will move back in late evening. Tonight should be awesome
with high snowfall rates and a good chance of thunder snow and
More to come
approaching 1" already. This is a good sign if you are a snow lover.
This means the atmosphere is clearly cooler than anticipated yesterday
when rain was being shown. Being snow now, will allow the upper
atmosphere to remain cool, and we might just see the entire storm as
frozen precipitation! These are good signs. In addition, Atlantic
City, with a temp of almost 36 is still snowing. Rain snow line is
between Baltimore and Millville,NJ. We will see how far north it
I am still going for a lull late morning or early afternoon before the
real dynamics take over tonight.
More updates through the day!
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
you will be asleep when the biggest dynamics occur.
During the day, rain will break out around lunch. There will kinda be
a lull in the action during the afternoon and early evening. During
the lull, a changeover to a light mix will more than likely occur.
Once the comma head and CCB moves in (described in my last post)
that's when the fun starts. Heavy snow will break out overnight, with
chances of thundersnow and rates 1-2"/ hour. The snow prolly lasts on
the order of 6 hours, so it will be a quick hitter.
I would feel pretty safe going with 4-6", keeping in the back of my
head it could be more. What worries me the most is the critical time
it changes over. You want to have it changed over in advance of the
heaviest action to cash in. Any slower, you miss that and amounts
More to come
Oh and NWS has placed the majority of the area in a Winter Storm Watch
for tomorrow night!
Monday, January 24, 2011
Thursday event are still looking good. It appears the storm may come
in waves. The first wave will probably break out around noon time with
a rain or mix. It will slowly transition to a mix and then kind of let
up, a lull, if you please.
What has me concerned is the second wave, after the lull. There will
be that high pressure building in from Canada reinforcing some colder
air, and the models have kind of shown the cold air reaching the area
as the storm bombs out just off shore changing all precipitation to a
heavy, wet snow.it will also freeze any liquid which has fallen
earlier in the day. This will create a nightmarish travel period
around the evening rush hour. It is plausible that a significant
amount of snow falls in this period.
If you have ever looked at a storm on radar or satellite and seen the
comma head associated with a storm, we will be having the comma head
portion of it move over our area, which is known as the CCB, or cold
conveyor belt. In this, you cab get very dynamic activity including
high precip rates, convection (thunder) intense bands etc. This has
been shown on a number of models as most are now coming to a
consensus, much of what I desired in my last post.
More to come tomorrow! Oh, the Air Force will be sending the Hurricane
Hunters into the storm in the morning and that data will be used in
the noon model runs! I will be looking forward to that!
between weather models. With some certainty, I don't think we are
looking at an all rain event. I also do not believe we have an all
snow event. What the whole storm is hinging on is high pressure in
Canada building in as the storm gets underway. The high pressure is
key because that is what will be supplying the cold air. The other
part of the equation will be the low pressure and how fast it can
intensify and draw in the cold air. The faster it can intensify, the
faster the cold air will be drawn into the system.
One thing that has also changed is this is looking like a Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday event. This is key too, because when I first
started talking about the storm, we were looking at a Tuesday into
Wednesday event. This is key because we have the recent cold weather
being supplied by a high pressure over Maine which will be departing
the area today. Hence, if the storm happened tomorrow, I would venture
to say we would be majority rain. So, by it being delayed to Wednesday
afternoon, we allow another cold high pressure in Canada to build in,
increasing the chance of snow.
How I incision this playing out is a coastal storm develops, moves up
the coast and rain will overspread the area. Then, colder air builds
in and changes the rain to snow from west to east. Depending on how
fast the cold builds in will determine how much snow we get.
The storm looks to drop between 1"-1.5" of water equivalent. How much
falls as rain and how much falls as snow, that's the question now.
More to come!
Saturday, January 22, 2011
There are so many variables in this storm it really isn't funny. I think the problem lies in the models and what they pick up, how they pick it up, what it does with the variables etc. Hence the ginormous spread in the outcomes. Hopefully tomorrow and Monday they can kinda narrow this down. More to come.
I am off to get some Excedrin.
Friday, January 21, 2011
NOGAPS Model moves the storm east, does have precip over us
Euro model brings the storm just inland up the east coast bring snow
to rain to snow
Ggem model brings a storm up the east coast inland bringing 85% rain
So the model wars are on! May the best model win!
Also, temperatures will be very cold through Tuesday, so be prepared for lows in the single digits and highs in the 20's!
Thursday, January 20, 2011
less than was thought yesterday. Areas around central jersey will
probably be in the 1-3" range. Areas south of here and the southern
shore areas may even mix with rain. Areas to the north look like 2-4".
Just enough to whiten things up a bit. Colder temperatures will also
The focus after this will be on Tuesday. We have the potential for a
significant storm to develop.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
We have a winter weather event moving in for Friday. It looks like snow developes overnight Thursday and tappers off Friday morning. This will be a quick moving storm, but will drop a plowable amount of snow. I am thinking right now 3-4" through most parts of the area. Expect another messy commute Friday. It will be messy, but nothing like the ice we had yesterday morning.
We have been in a pattern with little upstream blocking meaning we wont have a storm like we did on this past Boxing Day. If we can establish a block, then we could be in business for a nice, slow moving storm. As of now, we will be getting these quick hitters that freshen up the snow cover.
Next storm is showing up for next Tuesday. This one looks like there is a potential to tap some Gulf of Mexico moisture, so it could be a good hit. More to come on this after Friday!
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
As of now, it looks like we will have another Low pressure developing off the East Coast. It also looks to bring us another round of snow. Model runs are starting to key in on this, but there is little consensus on the strength and amounts. Stay tuned as the active weather pattern continues.
Oh, and there is also another threat popping up for next Tuesday/Wednesday with....you guessed it, another coastal storm!
Through the period, minus tomorrow, look like highs will struggle to make it out of the lower 30's and look to even be lower over the end of the week and the weekend.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Looks like snow developes tonight and chsnges over to a mixed bag overnight. The mix will eventually change to rain during the early morning hours. Depending on how quick the changeover occurs will be the determining factor on how bad the morning commute will be. Prepare for a tricky morning commute. Rain will continue during the day and end late afternoon
After tomorrow, all eyes will be on Friday/Saturday time frame as another coastal storm looks to impact the area with a better chance of snow. after that, very cold air invades and more storms line up! Fun times ahead!
Saturday, January 15, 2011
a clipper moving through today, but it will be centered fairly far
north, but may still spawn a snow shower or two.
From there, we focus our attention to Monday night as another coastal
storm takes aim at the area. This time, it appears to be a quick mix
to rain Monday night, followed by rain Tuesday. After that, the
pattern will be going back to our cold, snowy pattern with storms
lining up, with the next shot for snow next Friday! February is
shaping up to be a very cold and active month!
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
- 49 out of 50 states has snow cover in the state (exception- Florida). This includes Hawaii, where 7" is reported atop Mauna Kea
- 69.4% of the United States has snow cover, almost doubled from last week
As of yesterday:
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
The low still is sitting off the Carolina coast, and I am looking forward to see how fast this can bomb out. Its a shame this storm cant share the wealth and keep everything confined to a small area!
I am sticking with my ranges for now that i put out last night
Monday, January 10, 2011
Eastern PA (Philadelphia, ABE) 4-6"
Western NJ (High Point to Camden Co including Flemington, Trenton, Burlington :) 6-8"
Eastern NJ (Coastal Areas, Jersey City, Newark, Monmouth County, New Brunswick) 8-12"
There will also be areas that have an added bonus with heavy bands. Any area of NJ will be susceptible to banding and can increase totals. This will be a very dynamic and rapidly deepening storm, so banding will be prevelant.
There will be a good chance, especially over Eastern NJ of thundersnow (please send me any video :) )
Those are my thoughts for now, an update tomorrow morning!
also continued it's westward, more coastal track. It also has some
support from other short range models and I think this track has to be
given some credence now.
I think generally in west central NJ we are looking at 5-7" with a
possibility of spots up to 8" if you get banded by a heavier snow
Over the river in E PA, I think from a line from PHL to ABE you are
looking 3-5" with 5" closer to Jersey.
More to come, but that's where I stand now
In addition the NWS has placed most of NJ in a winter storm warning.
Tomorrow night should be nasty during the overnight
The good news to take from the GFS run was it moved a tad west, towards the NAM model, and more in line with the Euro model.
More to come this afternoon
While it is a western outlier, it still needs to be considered because this is getting into its wheelhouse time. We will see if the other models follow suit during the morning runs.
I am still going with 4-6" through western central NJ.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
One thing is for sure, parts of the deep south are getting a good dumping of snow, with reports of thundersnow. There is a significant amount of moisture being pulled into the system from the Gulf of Mexico. Also, there will be a paralyzing ice storm for parts of the deep south as well.
More to come tomorrow
Saturday, January 8, 2011
storm is going to be dealing with a low pressure that will move up the
Ohio Valley. It should weaken and transfer energy off to a new low
which will form off the Carolina coast. These situations are very
tricky and have a high probability of significant changes. For us, in
order to get high accumulations of all snow, we need to have the Ohio
valley low weaken early enough to allow the new coastal low to "bomb"
out and give us good snows.
If the Ohio valley low stays stronger longer, then the coastal low
will come up the coast further west and introduce mixing and/or rain.
If it weakens really early, the coastal low could just scoot off the
East Coast and not affect anyone.
The real issue is, you can pick your model of choice and each is
showing the above situations. The medium range Euro is showing a good
hit, while tonights NAM model run is showing the further west bringing
mixing and rain to the coast (although it still shows us all snow as
The GFS model is showing a Ohio valley low weakening, but the coastal
low does not bomb out until it is moving past us.
I would suspect by Monday morning and afternoon model runs we will
have a better idea ad hopefully some consensus of where we are
heading. We will also be able to look at what would currently be going
on and have a better handle.
One thing I for sure, it looks like parts of the deep south will have
a large ice storm to deal with while areas north of that will have a
lot of snow.
There is a real possibility of a significant winter storm Tuesday and
Wednesday so I will continue to follow and see where it goes.... More
Friday, January 7, 2011
south to north during the morning hours. Areas in southern jersey to
central jersey look around 3-4" while areas central and north are
2-3". This is an interesting setup as guidance really didn't key on
this until around midday today. Could surprise some people. Watches and
advisories issued, would not be shocked to wake up to snow warnings in
south jersey where it only takes 4" for the warning criteria. Other
areas will still have their advisories. Updates in the morning and
Storm next Tuesday to Wednesday still showing up. More to come on that
after tomorrows event!
advisories in effect for Mercer County.
FYI- the criteria for a winter storm has a cutoff between Burlington
And Mercer Counties. 4" is the minimum criteria to be met in
Burlington and 6" in Mercer county. That is why there is a watch and
Snow looks to begin late morning to early afternoon an tapers off
overnight. Updates soon
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Friday morning and ends around evening. Still feel 1-2" around most
parts. Looks like the heavy band of snow will bs setting up shop to
Next weeks storm is still on the models! That's what I will be looking
at after tomorrow!
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
accumulating snows Friday. Model guidance is a little more bullish now
on our area receiving measurable snow and in some cases plowable.
Looks like snow breaks out late Friday morning and continues until
evening. Looks like South Jersey to Philly looking like 1-2" while
areas north of Philly to NYC are looking 2-4". Now, another thing
showing up is that there will be a band of heavier snow developing
over the area and can increase amounts in those areas where the band
sets up. This will be a wait and see thing, so don't be surprised for
someone in the area to receive 5 or 6" in that band. The band could
set up anywhere from Philly to NYC and north east.
Storm next week still is present on the weather models, but let's
worry about Friday first!
Monday, January 3, 2011
unlikely. That's the bad news ( for snow lovers). The good news is, we
are heading into a very cold period and a rather active period for
Although this storm ( clipper ) looks to miss our area, it will be an
important player for the next week. The clipper will hit the coast and
redevelop north of our area and really cream Eastern New England. From
here, the low pressure will become a blocking mechanism which will be
important for another storm progged to hit our area next week. The
block will slow the following storm down for next week and allow for a
potentially major storm to hit. Where and how strong the 2nd storm
hits is the question.
The big story will be the cold air that will become entrenched over
the area. We are talking vodka cold. Similarities are being drawn to a
very cold outbreak in 1994. Anyone from this area can remember a week
of teens for highs and below zero for lows. It is looking like we
could rival that.
More to come!
Friday looking like some light snow likely, little accumulation. I am
more excited for the potential next week and will gladly sacrifice the
Friday storm if it can be a factor in making the second storm more
There will also be more chances down the line as the cold air will be
here to stay and the rather active pattern continues.
Tomorrow will have highs in the 40's but that will be short lived.