Saturday, October 29, 2011

Wow

I gotta say, I am really impressed with this storm. Currently, the
rain snow line is pushing through central NJ. Most rain will
transition to snow over the next few hours. This is much earlier than
anticipated!

This is a very dynamic storm! As it continues to "bomb" out, I expect
the snow to continue and be heavy at times. I also expect warnings to
be issued into central and western NJ areas. I also expect to here
reports of thundersnow as the day progresses. The winds will also be
on the increase and will have devastating effects where the heavy snow
sticks to trees. Numerous reports of power outages already in central
Pa, and as the snow continues, I expect that to move over the snow
areas.

Be careful on the roads!

Snow Mixing In Burlington, NJ

videoHeavier band of precipitation has moved over Burlington, NJ and snow
has started mixing in. Numerous reports of mixing already occurring.

Snow OBS

Precipitation has turned over to snow in State College, Pa.

Numerous reports of rain snow mixing or going over to all snow in
heavier bands throughout the middle Atlantic

Heavier bands over DC and Baltimore appear to be heading towards our
area, so do not be surprised to see some snow mixing in from time to
time.

I am still not thinking more accumulations than slush.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Still Not Gung Ho For Central NJ

A significant early season storm is bearing down on the area. The proverbial kitchen sink will be thrown at us, and in many areas, records could be broken. We are dealing with a complex storm which is moving into place this evening. Rain will overspread the area tonight. Tomorrow, the storm will be developing along the eastern shore and this is where things get tricky. the snow part of the equation will come into play depending on how fast and deep the storm can develop. For areas north and west of the cities and I-95, you are looking sweet! There will be significant snows that fall from Reading through the Poconos to the I287 area of NY through Central CT. Areas closer to the coast will be largely dependent on elevation and falling into the heavier bands of precipitation.

The heavier bands that move through will change rain over to snow, and then back to rain. Generally, unless this storm really bombs out and can get some serious cold air into the area, I am generally thinking about an accumulation of slush around the area. Once you move further north and west into the elevation, your amounts will go up. There will be areas which get hammered, and a couple miles away will have nothing. A sharp gradient of accumulations will exist from east to west. For those areas who get heavily impacted, downed trees will be the biggest issue. The snow that falls will resemble cement and the snow will stick to EVERYTHING! Trees will get weighed down fast and power lines will come down. Extended power outages will be the norm for those areas. Remember Buffalo a couple years ago? Here is a video of that storm on Friday the 13th of October, 2006:

Weekend Snow Potential

I was able to take a closer look tonight at the models, and first
impression was wow! This definitely has some potential. But, I am not
snow crazy for this one.

First, a Miller B type storm ( like this will be) Are tricky to
forecast and the gradient spread is a lot less than a full fledged
Miller a storm. The gradient is smaller, but those that get hit, can
get severe consequences. Think back to last year, the great
thundersleet/ snow event in NJ and the massive snow dumping in CT.
This is the potential these miller b storms can do, but usually much
tougher to forecast where this happens. We are depending on a storm to
transfer energy to the coast, deepen enough to create dynamics to
crash temperatures and turn rain to snow and then expect accumulations
on surfaces yet to fall below freezing since the beginning of the
year. Could it happen, yes, but I am not liking the chances.

Second... It's October. Sure, rain and some
Flakes at the end, I can buy this. Inches of snow... No. Like I said
earlier, this is a central Pa to NW NJ through New England event
(6-10" are possible in some of those areas). It's just to tough to get
accumulating snow down here in October.

Trust me, I am the biggest snow nut, but I am not enthused with this
potential for snow. Too many variables to overcome. I will definetly
give more updates as needed, but I am not on the snow train for this
one.

Any areas who do receive snow, there will be a number of power outages
and falling trees from the weight of the snow, and the wind generated
by the storm.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Weekend snow moving closer to us?

I had posted two days ago about the first snow threat of the season,
mainly over western areas. It appears the snow chances are moving
closer and closer to coastal areas.

As of now, rain will over spread the area and areas N&W of Philly will
actually mix with and change over to heavy snow. Any time this early
in the season you get wet snow, it will spell trouble. While leaves
are still on trees, they will quickly become heavy with snow and
break, creating power outages.

I think areas N&W of Philly, NW NJ, Catskills in NY and through CT
will have the best shot for accumulating snows.

More to come

Monday, October 24, 2011

Northern Lights

Take a look to the northern sky tonight, the northern lights are going
to make a presence tonight and you may be lucky enough to see them!

SNOW?

It looks as though some parts of the North East are looking at a
chance of accumulating snows towards the end of the week. These areas
are mainly WV, W MD and W Va and W Pa. At least we are back to snow
tracking!