Monday, November 25, 2013

Tuesday / Wednesday Update

Models have been pretty consistent over the past day in regards to Wednesdays storm. Its looking like precipitation will actually make its way into the area around 7pm on Tuesday Night and be around until Wednesday Night before finally pushing out. This is looking like an all rain event, and we could get a healthy dosing. 1-3" generally across the area can be expected. The low pressure track, as shown on both the NAM model and GFS model show a track right over Philadelphia and Trenton to the NNE. With this track, we will have to watch for a potential dry slot to set up around our area, which could lead to a decrease in the amount of rain.

Once the storm pushes out, it will set up another round of cold air to move in. Thanksgiving will be cold and windy. The Macys Thanksgiving Day Parade will be interesting with the winds and the floats. More to come and any changes will be noted!

Sunday, November 24, 2013

A Look Towards Wednesday

An Arctic front moved through last night and has put a chill over the area. This will continue today and tomorrow before all eyes shift towards the storm Wednesday.

Model consensus is building, and the general idea now is that a significant storm will move up the coast very late Tuesday into Wednesday. With most storms that move into our area, this one will also have some aspects that will need to be monitored going into Tuesday Night. As the low pressure moves along the Gulf Coast, it will interact with a disturbance moving across Canada. The exact timing of the interaction (phase) will determine where the low pressure begins to come up the coast. The earlier, the further west (warmer, more precip); and the later, further east (colder, less precip). As of now, my general thoughts are that the entire PHL- NYC corridor sees rain, with a possible changeover at the very end (no accumulation). The real question as far as snow goes, is for areas in the mountains north and west of us. There could be a significant dumping of snow in the much higher elevations.

I will be watching and updating on each model run via twitter and facebook and I will probably update my blog during the late evening and morning times. For now, sit back and drink a winter beer and enjoy the cold air!

Friday, November 22, 2013

Buckle Up!

Earlier in the week, I mentioned how we were heading into a roller coaster and we have done just that. We started out earlier this week in the upper 60's and temps crashed. Today and tomorrow will be in the 50's. Sunday and Monday will feature some of the coldest high temps this season! 

Once we get to Monday, all eyes will turn towards the Thanksgiving holiday. Overnight weather models have shown better agreement in regards to a developing storm potential. Thanksgiving is one of the heaviest travel days in the US, so extra attention should be payed to the situation. 

At this point, it will be a rather "thread the  needle" type event that we are so used to. As of now, low pressure moves up from the Carolina coast. Rain will move in and then transition over to snow possibly. Shore areas will have rain and winds to contend with. 

This will also be a quick moving system with no blocking to keep the storm at a crawl. It's a rather progressive and quick hitting type storm. This will once again be a storm where one area will be raining and 30 miles away could be getting puked on by snow. 

In any case, it's got my interest and I will be watching the model runs. As always, updates will be forwarded!

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Temperature Roller Coaster Upcoming

From high temperatures in the upper 30's and low 40's this past week to highs in the upper 60's today and tomorrow, we are in the midst of a weather roller coaster. What goes up, must come down, and we will be facing temperatures plummeting on Tuesday. Towards the middle of the week, temperatures will come up a little, before falling again late next weekend. There are no chances of snow in the coming week, so buckle up and enjoy the ride!

Monday, November 11, 2013

First Shot At Some Snow Flakes

a cold front will move through the area tonight, and will bring it some rain and snow showers. Yes, it looks like we may see our first flakes fly of the season tomorrow morning. Both the NAM and GFS models are showing a period of showers moving through during the daytime hours tomorrow. I expect zero accumulation, but I would not be surprised at all to see some flakes flying as the cold air moves in. We will then have two days of colder air with temperatures in the low 40's for Tuesday and Wednesday.

I think we are going to continue along this very transient pattern for the remainder of November. We will have a day or two of cooler air, then average temps and the cycle will continue. I am also think there will be little chance of an accumulating snowfall through the end of November. As always, I will keep you updated on any chances.