Thursday, January 31, 2013

Where We Head From Here

The mega cold front has pushed through. After a violent two days, temperatures nearing 70 degrees and many areas deluged with rain, the potent cold front has pushed through. Winds are back to the west, and now we can watch temperatures plummet through the day. In fact, Trenton, NJ had a period of time this morning where the temperature dropped 14 degrees in 3 hours (9 degress in 1 hour). Temperatures will get back down into the 30's today, and down below freezing tonight.

Friday will have a shot at some snow showers. More than likely they will not amount to much, but don't be surprised to see some flakes flying. Sunday will be a better shot at a more organized chance of some light snows. Temperatures will drop below freezing over the next few days at night, and highs will be in the mid 30's. Hopefully we can get a nice shot at some snow in the upcoming cooler weather.

The lake effect snow belt areas will be cranking in full force over the next couple days. In fact, snow bands were so potent this morning out near Pittsburgh that thunder was reported in the bands.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Wild Night Upcoming



Well, if yesterday is any indication of whats coming, we should be in for quite the wild night. 14 Tornado watches issued yesterday, numerous reported tornadoes and other severe weather outbreaks. Continuing this morning, tornado warnings have already been issued for parts of Georgia. This threat will continue. The Storm Prediction Center has been all over this, and they continue with their forecasts for today. They have actually extended their area of severe weather up into our area as designated as the slight risk on their map. A slight risk into these parts in January is quite odd. Anyways, here are their maps:


So, as you can see, our area (NJ) has been placed in a number of these categories. This is a vigorous cold front coming through and with temperatures getting up into the 60's today (already 65 in Buffalo, NY!!!), there will be some fuel. There are also extremely strong winds above the surface of the earth and any storm that can gain some elevation can get these winds to mix down. I think our primary threat will be strong winds with the frontal passage. We will also have some heavy rain, so much so that a Flash Flood Watch was issued for the area for 1"-2.5" of rain. That much rain falling quickly can lead to quick flooding conditions.

The frontal passage has been pushed back a little, due to it really becoming a slow mover. Originally I was looking for a late afternoon / evening start, but it appears now, that it will pass between 11pm and 2am. For many of you, you will be asleep and will probably be woken up by the winds, rain and possible thunder.

There will be more to come, so stay tuned to twitter @townerswxpage and facebook Towner's Weather PAGE

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Roller Coaster Continues 1/29/2013 Morning Update

Well, the warm front has pushed through the area. As a result, we will have a nice thaw for today and tomorrow. Today, highs are looking like we will hit the high 40's to low 50's. Tomorrow, we have a serious shot of 60 degrees. In addition, I am becoming more and more concerned about a severe weather outbreak tomorrow. The severe outbreak is attributed to a strong cold front which is currently marching through the midwest. This front is going to spawn severe weather over the Northern Gulf States. These areas are going to have a rather impressive chance for tornadoes and very strong winds . As shown, the Storms Prediction Center is all over this:

Severe Weather Potential:

As the front marches eastward, this area will move east. The front will bring very strong winds just off the ground and any storm that can gain some elevation can tap into these winds and mix them down to the surface. This will have to be watched to see how the severe weather plays out today and what that can lead to in 24 hours. SPC sees the threat for tomorrow, but not as pronounced. This may increase depending on how today's events go:

Once this storm pushes through, it will usher in cooler air once again. From there, hopefully we can get some kind of calibration to our winter and allow for some snow to make its way into the snow starved areas in NJ.

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Another Close Shot

A warm front will be moving into the area tomorrow and bringing another round of precipitation. We still have an arctic airmass in place which will give way to much milder temperatures (Tuesday, Wednesday). As precipitation comes in, the upper atmosphere will warm, but since cold air is heavier than warm air, the cold air at the surface will take a little bit longer to warm. This process, known as warm ait advection will possibly lead to an icy situation Monday. The timing and extent to which how long it takes the cold air to retreat will all be determining how long icy conditions could stay around.

Areas to the south will have little to no icy time while areas to the north will be a different story. Typically, NW NJ and the Pocono gets quite icy during these setups. Areas further south from Philly to Trenton tend to switch over pretty quickly. Between Trenton and the before-mentioned NW NJ and Pocono region, that will be where the real battle sets up for how long it takes to switch over to all rain. Precipitation makes it in for the morning hours. Many areas will start as snow and then switch over to ice and then rain. Areas will start from south to north.

After this bout with weather, we will have a nice thaw coming for Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern will reload and it will return cold towards the end of the week.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Final Call Friday Storm

5 days ago, I was really anticipating tomorrow under the prospects of having a potential moderate snow event unfolding for the area. Alas, that is not happening, but we are looking for a minor event that will whiten up the area. Snow will move in tomorrow in the early afternoon and will accumulate 1-3" region wide. The snow will move out late evening into the night.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisories for Burlington and Ocean Counties south. These were issued because the threshold for accumulations is lower in those areas. The main concern for the snow will be the evening commute on Friday. if you haven't noticed, it has been pretty cold over the past three days and with that, snow will accumulate as soon as it starts falling. Any accumulations will make for a slick rush hour commute.  Here is the text output by NWS Philly / Mt. Holly:

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

1/23/2013 Friday Update

After an up and down week on the models regarding the Friday storm, we are now gaining some semblance of an agreement. from 6"+ earlier in the week, to next to nothing yesterday, models are now showing a small event on the scale of 1-3" over a majority of the region. The storm is currently coming on shore in California, and models will have a much better data set to garner the variables. When weather systems are not over land, we are dependent on instrument drops from commercial aircraft and buoy data. When systems are over land, there are a number of additional areas to gain data. We also have this disturbance moving through today, which will also play into the end result on Friday.

All this being said, we are on tap for a small event for Friday. precipitation will move in during the late morning, early afternoon time frame  and will last into the late evening / night on Friday. More to come on any immediate changes that occur in the modeling.

Sorry for being brief, just a quick update

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

1/22/13 Late Week Morning Update

What a quick burst of snow last night. Numerous accidents and road closures occurred due to the snow first melting on the roadways and then freezing due to the plummeting temperatures. That combination is always a recipe for disaster.

With that gone, we can now focus on Friday. The Euro has been steadfast in a moderate event for the area. The GFS has been waffling between a moderate storm and snow showers. The NAM model goes out 84 hours, and we are just getting to that timeframe. What I have seen on the NAM at hour 84 two runs in a row, looks to be it wants to give us a moderate hit as well. What the models are going to be focusing on is a disturbance that comes through the area on Wednesday. While the disturbance will not bring us any precipitation, it is going to be a major factor in setting the storm up on Friday. How the models show this will ultimately lead to their respective outcomes.

As of now, still looking more likely than not to have a storm on Friday. The usual questions still looking to be answered....track, intensity, changeover (if any) etc. There will be more to come on this!

Monday, January 21, 2013

Clipper Tonight, Bigger Storm End Of The Week

This week may well be remembered as one of the coldest over the past two years. This week will also be marked by bookend snow potential. A mild weekend has led way to crashing temperatures, snow chances and the lake effect snow machine cranking.

For our area, we are looking at a clipper moving through this evening. This will reinforce cold air, and bring us a chance at a period of snowy weather. This is not by any means, going to be a big event. In fact, this is going to resemble more along the lines of tracking a line of storms in the summer time. For those that see the squall move in, a quick burst of snow will cover the ground and could impair driving. A general coating to 1" can be expected.  Expect this to last less than an hour. The hi res NAM simulated radar has this over the area around 8pm tonight:

The real event for this storm tonight will be for areas in eastern New England (Boston to Portland, ME). They are going to experience what is known as a Norlun trough which will enhance the snowfall and really up totals in that area where 6" plus can be expected. I posted this a couple years ago when we had a Norlun trough move through our area, but here is the refresher for those interested:

                                                 Norlun Trough Explained (click link)

After this clipper moves through, our attention will turn towards Friday. Another storm is poised to move in and bring us a chance at some measurable snow fall. Weather models have been all over the place with this one, but the vast majority do show a storm. The next couple of days will be spent monitoring the weather models and trying to narrow down a consensus. We are looking at a Miller B storm, and historically, these are one of the most tricky storms to forecast. They can also lead to some of the most intense storms (a la our thunder snow storms for two winters ago.) For now, know that a chance exists and we will see how this plays out this week. Bundle up, going to be a cold one and hopefully snowy!

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Snow Chances This Upcoming Week 1/21/13 - 1/27/13

It is being modeled as two chances for storms coming up this week. First, Monday Night a clipper is looking to take aim at the area and a coating - 2" looks possible. Towards the end of the week, we could be looking at a more substantial storm, but models have disagreements on track and strength. More updates tomorrow

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Winter Storm Watches Issued

For the southern and coastal sections of our area. As I had discussed yesterday, the trend this year is precipitation moving further north and west as we get closer to the start. That has happened again for a storm tomorrow. Areas in VA, MD, DE and southern NJ have a great shot at measurable snow. Any further NW movement and areas of central NJ will be In the mix too. More to come.

Winter Storm Watches for tomorrow/tomorrow night: darker blue.
Winter Weather Advisories for current ICU conditions: purple.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

The Week Ahead

First round of rain moved through last night. There were some reports of sleet in NW NJ. Another round of precipitation moves in tonight, and areas just NW of our area will be looking at wintry precipitation. The Lehigh Valley and Poconos as well as NW NJ could see frozen precipitation with this. Areas that see snow could get a 2-4" snowfall, while other areas that stay frozen could receive a minor to moderate ice event. Precipitation moves out tomorrow morning.

Next time frame I will be looking at is towards the end of the week around the late Thursday to Saturday time frame. Models are showing a storm moving off the SE coast. Usually this would mean little to us up here, but the general trend this winter has been each model run coming further NW. So, its something I will keep my eye on.

Colder temperatures will be sticking around for a while. Next week looks to get really cold :)

Monday, January 14, 2013

Honeymoons Over

Enjoy the warmer temperatures we have experienced the past couple days because they will be coming to an end tonight. A cold front will be crossing the area from the west overnight, dropping temperatures back towards seasonal ranges.Another dreary overcast day today with warm temperatures will give way to rain overnight with the frontal passage. Temperatures will drop overnight. Rain will continue for tomorrow, and there is also a threat of sleet and snow mixing in for a bit. No accumulations with this, but you may hear some pinging.

Down the road a bit towards the weekend and next week appears to be cold. These colder temperatures will dominate the next two weeks. As of now, there are not really any storms popping up.