Tuesday, August 28, 2012

8/27 2pm Isaac Update

We now have Hurricane Isaac. For the longest time, he has been on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and today around noon he finally took the step. Regardless, Isaac will be a dangerous storm with a extended period of dangerous weather. Storm conditions are already causing flooding in numerous parts of The central gulf coastal areas. The storm surge has pushed water over a number of barriers already and the continuation of the surge will bring more of the same. Also, rains will be extremely heavy in the central gulf ranging from 12-18" in some locations. Couple both those issues with an extended period of extreme weather and we have a giant storm with a major impact. More to come

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Monday, August 27, 2012

8/27 Tropical Storm Isaac Update

Isaac is still a tropical storm as of 5pm. Although it is a tropical storm as of now, I think this all changes big time tonight. I think by 8pm we will see Hurricane Isaac. Also, as of 5pm the NHC is projecting a category 2 hurricane to make landfall. Landfall is again projected just sw of New Orleans, which will bring the most significant storm surge into New Orleans. Also, rains will bring upwards of 15-20" of rain to the area. Buckle up, the roller coaster is moving!

Sunday, August 26, 2012

8/26 11pm Isaac Update

Well, the westward trend on the models may not be over yet. There are a number of models that take  Isaac just west of New Orleans. That being said, if that occurs, it may actually be worse for the Crescent City. See, the storm surge is strongest on the right front area of the storm, which would place New Orleans in the track for the brunt of the storm surge. More to come tomorrow, just wanted to give a quick update. Isaac really looks like it is getting its act together, and the winds are up to 65mph. Once Isaac hits 74mph, he will be a hurricane. This should occur at some point during the day tomorrow.

Other Models:

8/26 5pm Isaac Update

Look out New Orleans! As I said earlier, New Orleans is looking more and more like the vicinity of landfall for Isaac. as of 5pm, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded the Central Gulf Coast to a Hurricane Warning. This is not what the Crescent City residents want to hear. The overall strength of Isaac is still to be determined on landfall, but residents should begin the process of preparing for a Hurricane. 

Here is the 5pm update from the NHC:

8/26 2pm Isaac Update

Getting more and more worried about a landfall in the New Orleans area. National Hurricane Center track has moved even further west, putting New Orleans in close proximity. Here is the 2pm update. Also, Tuesday will mark the 7 year anniversary of Katrina...... definitely not what a lot of people from there want to hear. I can only hope that in the past 7 years significant strides have been made to upgrade the infrastructure.

8/26 AM Isaac Update

Overnight, weather models have taken the track of Isaac a bit further west. The westward movements on the track are bad news again for areas like New Orleans and the Northern Gulf Coast who were pummeled by Katrina. Any further west and we may be taking about a significant hit for New Orleans. As of 8am today, Isaac is a very strong Tropical Storm (65 mph winds) heading towards the Florida Keys. Once Isaac hits 74mph, he will be a hurricane. This will probably happen at some point tonight. By tomorrow morning, we will be looking at Hurricane Isaac.

I put out a graphic yesterday with the Gulf of Mexico temperatures. Temperatures are warm. earlier tracks took it up the west coast of Florida. With this new track, it will keep Isaac over the Gulf waters longer, which may lead to intensification. Numerous tornado warnings issued (pretty common with tropical storms and hurricanes) along southern Florida and the keys.

Here is where we are now:

Saturday, August 25, 2012

Isaac Update

Little has changed with the path of Isaac. The minor change that is noted is Isaac will travel along the north coast of Cuba, instead of a direct hit longways onto the island. Once Isaac clears Cuba, its sights will be set on the Florida Keys. Isaac will reach Hurricane strength once it clears Cuba. Isaac will track over the keys and then off the west coast of Florida as it moves up towards the panhandle of Florida where it will once again make landfall. The real question will be, is how much strength can Isaac gain once it clears the keys. As noted in the second graph, temperatures are warm. In some places temperatures are greater than 85 degrees which may aid in strengthening.  Oh, and Joyce has completely fizzled out, and the NHC has only placed a 10% chance of redevelopment. I am still watching the other wave that was off the African coast two days ago, that has been upgraded to a 30% chance of strengthening.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Attention Turns To Isaac And Newly Formed Joyce

Well, it appears that we can now start tracking the likes of Tropical Storm Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce. Both located in the Atlantic, Isaac is the more immediate threat as it is just South of Puerto Rico and moving towards the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Hurricane Warnings are up for the south shores of both countries. The track will more than likely take it between Haiti and Jamaica before setting its eyes on the Island of Cuba. From there, it will be poised to take aim on the Florida Keys. it does not appear that an east coast track is favorable as of now. Here is the graphic as of the 11am briefing:

And behind this, we have Tropical Storm Joyce. As of now, it does not appear that it will have any impact on the US.

And, from here, there is also another wave located just West of Africa that could be our next system. An active few weeks upcoming!

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk Today

Our area is placed in the slight risk today for severe thunderstorms. Currently, storms are just west of Philly and taking their sweet time getting here. Heavy rains and winds will be the biggest threat.


Friday, August 10, 2012

Rain this morning, bigger storms this afternoon?

A large and slow moving shield of raining is moving into the area. Flood advisories have been posted for western areas of NJ. Once this rain moves through, we have a potential for some severe thunderstorms this afternoon. More to come on the potential this afternoon.

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Ernesto Is Born!

Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed in the Western Atlantic to the NE of Venezuela. Ernesto is projected to move in between the islands (PR, DR and Cuba) and Central America before moving into the Gulf of Mexico in the middle part of next week. As of now, Ernesto is projected to remain a tropical storm until further strengthening occurs during the day Sunday. Possible Hurricane status may occur on Sunday in the vicinity of Jamaica. More to come on Ernesto!

8/2/2012 5pm Advisory: