Tuesday, February 25, 2014

SWS For A Period Of Light Snow During AM Rush

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-02-25T22:25:00GMT-0500
2014-02-26T09:00:00GMT-0500
...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...

WE ARE EXPECTING A LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE NON-ADVISORY AREAS AND COULD GREATLY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE AS THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO STICK INSTANTLY TO ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. THE SNOW SHOULD END RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW MORNING. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING TOMORROW MORNING, BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. BE SURE TO LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU.
Camden; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Morris; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington; Sussex; Warren; Western Monmouth
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Friday, February 21, 2014

Tornado Watch Issued For Most Of NJ

Tornado Watch (New Jersey)
2014-02-21T12:40:00GMT-0500
2014-02-21T17:00:00GMT-0500
TORNADO WATCH 26 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET
Atlantic; Burlington; Camden; Cape May; Cumberland; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Monmouth; Ocean; Salem; Somerset
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Mercer County, NJ Freezing Rain Advisory

Freezing Rain Advisory (New Jersey)
2014-02-18T14:52:00GMT-0500
2014-02-19T10:00:00GMT-0500
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...WEST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA NORTHWEST SUBURBS. * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. * TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ARRIVING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AN OVERLAP PERIOD WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING AS THE RAIN IS FALLING MAKING IT FREEZE ON CONTACT. THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND END BY LATE MORNING. * IMPACTS...ANY UNTREATED ROADWAYS OR ROADWAYS IN WHICH THE SALT HAS RUN OFF TODAY WILL BE SLIPPERY AND HAZARDOUS. UNTREATED WALKWAYS WILL ALSO BE SLIPPERY AND HAZARDOUS. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHEN THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND RISING INTO THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
Hunterdon; Mercer; Somerset
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Monday, February 17, 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED.....C NJ

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-180700-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN
DELMARVA THROUGH THE LOCAL PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA FOR
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY A TRACE.

* TIMING...THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
  TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. A CHANGE TO
  FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
  LESSENS LATER IN THE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY DURING
  THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING
  COMMUTE AND IMPACT BOTH TRAVELING AND PLOWING.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING, RISING ABOVE
  FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. EXPECT LONGER COMMUTING TIMES. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Wednesday Afternoon Update)



First and foremost, our storm is really taking a toll in the Southeastern US. Snows and ice are really hitting an area hard that is not normally accustomed to this. I can only hope everyone down there follows their forecasts and have plans done accordingly.

For our area up here, we are about 10 hours away from the start of our storm. As you can see, we are dealing with a very large storm. We can see a direct influence from the Gulf Of Mexico feeding directly into our low pressure. This will be a very intense and large storm. This will also probably be our longest duration event for the year.

My going thinking has been 4-8" for the area and then a switch over to a mix and possibly rain. I do think we switch back to snow as the CCB (Cold Conveyor Belt) swings through the area. The CCB is the back end of the "comma" head of the storm. As the storm pushes through, this will swing over the area. How much additional will that add? Well, like everything else with this storm, it depends.

I will say, the models have been all over the place with this very large and complex storm. My 4-8" is my best guess trying to make sense and from experience with these types of storms from prior years. Growing up in NJ, most of the large intense storms bring a period of a transition to a mix or rain. As the storm moves east of the area, we go back to snow till the end of the storm. While the model guidance has been less than stellar, I do hold out hope for the short range models, the HRRR and the RUC models which will be in their range later on tonight.

While my call is 4-8" with a transition, the confidence of that is low to medium. I think we are going to see some very impressive snowfall rates through the area. We have a storm that is going to dump between 1-2" of precipitation. The question is going to be figuring out, how much of that is snow, mix, rain. If it were all snow, we would be looking at 12"+ easily. Now, how fast do we transition? Do we transition? does it stay as sleet? freezing rain? rain? Do we go back to snow? What kind of precipitation rates do we have? These questions will all be answered starting in 10 hours. Until then, I am going with the 4-8" as my conservative estimate, with a strong feeling that the totals may end up higher than that.

So, while those are the accumulation questions, there will be other questions that will also need to be answered. I said that we are dealing with a very large and dynamic storm. Even if warm air moves in, and the surface temps get above freezing, if we have a period of very heavy precipitation, we can remain snow if the upper atmosphere is still below freezing. This will all have to be tracked as well with the storm. Obviously, if the rates are not that impressive, or the upper atmosphere and surface are above freezing, we will have rain. Speaking of dynamic......I fully expect there to be a good number of reports of thundersnow tomorrow. Maybe even as early as the early morning hours.

So, the specifics.

Snow moves in around midnight to 2am. It will snow very heavily in the early morning hours, with the possibility of thundersnow. Accumulations by the time we wake up will be 3-6". I expect to pick up another inch or two and then a transition to a mix will occur as the storm moves closer and some warmer air floods the upper atmosphere. I do think though we will remain sleet for a while. During the afternoon, precipitation may actually stop or become very drizzly. To the evening hours, I expect the CCB to intensify and move through dropping more intense snowfall before ending towards midnight. Exactly how much will depend on how the low pressure bombs out, and how much moisture can be thrown back over the area.

Anyways, those are my thoughts and concerns as of now. As always, I will be posting on facebook and twitter throughout the day and night.

Stay Safe!


Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Winter Storm Warnings Issued in NJ 195 South, Watches Issued North

Warnings (PINK) Watches (BLUE)




Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...POTENT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-120500-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.140213T0000Z-140214T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0006.140213T0300Z-140214T0600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THIS WARNING INCLUDES FAR SOUTHEASTERN
  PENNSYLVANIA... INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA...
  FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY... FAR NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...AND
  NORTHERN DELAWARE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO
  8 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WITH 8 TO 10 INCHES
  POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS MOSTLY SNOW WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH SLEET BY THURSDAY
  MORNING AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
  ALL SNOW AGAIN AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACROSS THE
  REGION ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO TRAVEL IMPACTS...
  WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
  ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES IF HEAVY SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS ON POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS BY THE TIME WINDS
  INCREASE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$


Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...POTENT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-120500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0007.140213T0600Z-140214T1100Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...THIS WATCH INCLUDES NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND THE
  POCONOS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...PRIMARILY HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALTHOUGH
  10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
  POCONOS.

* TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS ALL SNOW AFTER
  MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET
  DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER
  MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACROSS THE
  REGION ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO TRAVEL IMPACTS...
  WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
  ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES IF HEAVY SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS ON POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS BY THE TIME WINDS
  INCREASE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

JOHNSON

Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Tuesday AM Update)

Overnight model runs have concluded and now I am looking forward towards today noon model runs. Last night, I explained on facebook where we were before the model runs. Overnight, the NAM was less amped, the GFS moved a bit west (but overall had a much better organization). The EURO was pretty steadfast on its track showing a front end thump of snow and then a transition to a mix and possibly rain. Today the models continued down the same roads and the NAM, GFS and Canadian models all bring in a period of sleet/mix/rain to CNJ.

With that, it has become more and more clear that our area will see some transition over to sleet/mix/rain etc. The projected track (on any of the models) will make it very difficult for us to remain all snow. Areas NW of 95 should do really well and will cash in with widespread areas of 12"+. Those areas would be places like Reading, the Lehigh Valley, NE PA and possibly NW NJ. I think areas down in CNJ are looking at a nice front end thump of snow 4-8" (possibly more) and then a transition over to sleet/mix and then possibly rain. There could also be a change back to all snow on the tail end. Coastal areas, there is a full moon expected as well Thursday, and with a developing low pressure coming up the coast, spells disaster for coastal flooding. 

In any case, a shift in the models by 50 miles east could make quite a difference. Same with a shift 50 miles west. With that, those are my general ideas. There will be more updates to come. We are still 36 hours away so there is some time for some wiggles. If you know anyone down in the NE Georgia, Central SC and NC areas, they will be receiving an epic ice storm. Make sure those down there are prepared and follow their latest forecasts down there. We still have people up this way without power from our storm last Wednesday. Also, areas not accustomed to snow could be in for some surprises as well (South Central VA, W NC etc). Also, DC looks to actually be in a pretty decent spot up our way for a pretty decent storm as well. 

More to come

Sunday, February 9, 2014

A Look Ahead Into Wednesday / Thursday

With this clipper over for today, the next focus will be on a developing storm for the Wednesday - Thursday timeframe. The Canadian and EURO models have been hinting at a low pressure tracking from the SE coast, up to the Outer Banks and then east of Jersey to the "benchmark" (or just inside). The benchmark is a noted area, 40N 70W, where most of our significant snowstorms move through especially for New England). Also, this looks to be a much slower moving storm than we have had this year and will also effect a larger area.

The GFS has come around to the idea and has the storm, but has it further into the ocean and only scraping the East Coast. Tonight, the NAM also shows the storm, although we are at hour 84 on the 84 hour model (not the greatest at this range) but I am encouraged to see it there, and very amped up. There will obviously be some questions with track, intensity and so forth with this storm, but this is definitely one that has my attention. This will effect a large area, from the Gulf States to the Southeast to the Mid Atlantic through New England.

So, time to watch the continuity from run to run and see further cohesion in coming up with a track. There will be many updates coming, so please follow along on twitter and facebook!

NOAA SWS

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-02-09T15:53:00GMT-0500
2014-02-09T18:00:00GMT-0500
...SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION...

SNOW IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE. THE SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST OVER THE REST OF NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND THE NORTHERN EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND BY 6 PM. THE SNOWFALL RATE MAY BE MODERATE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH RAIN NEAR THE COAST. SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING, BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. BE SURE TO LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM EST THIS EVENING.
Atlantic; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Camden; Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth
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Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Winter Storm Warnings Hoisted

This is for NW Burlington County. Most other areas in the state are under warnings and advisories as well. North, more snow. 

Winter Storm Warning (New Jersey)
2014-02-04T03:45:00GMT-0500
2014-02-05T09:00:00GMT-0500
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
...ANOTHER WINTER STORM WITH SNOW AND ICE WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOME SNOW AND SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * HAZARD TYPES...SOME SNOW AND SLEET, THEN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT, THEN MIX WITH SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN TOWARD MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW OR SLUSH COVERED ROADS, REDUCED VISIBILITY AND THEN ICING LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ICE ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THE SNOW COULD BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES, RESULTING IN SOME POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
Camden; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Salem
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Monday, February 3, 2014

February 5th Event (Monday PM Update)

As we wind down from our storm today, we can now turn out attention to the upcoming threat on Wednesday. Last week I made a post about a very active pattern unfolding over the area, and that seems to be the case. Yes, we have a lot of threats, and yes, we have some shots at snow. I will however, take it one storm at a time. I spoke of the change in any variable from a previous storm having an impact on storms following. Case in point, the next storm up, Wednesday.

Two days ago, this was looking like a washout. Now, with some fresh snowcover down, there is talk of a couple inches of snow and then a switch over to a mix and then to rain. Places now in NW NJ and NE PA could get a whole lot of snow and never transition over now. So, I am going to be curious to see how the models interpret this tonight and tomorrow. I have a sneaking suspicion that we could be in for a ice event, especially from Trenton north. 

As of now, Snow moves in late tomorrow night and will accumulate. Precipitation will transition over to a mix from south to north. It will make it to about rt 80 where north of there is out best bet to remain all snow. In addition, the mix will also change over to rain from south to north, and how far up that goes will be the question. This will be another quick moving storm, and will probably be out of here again by the late afternoon Wednesday. More to come on this storm. 

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Monday 2/3/14 Storm (Sunday AM thoughts)

First, Phil saw his shadow this morning at Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, PA. As the legend goes, this means 6 more weeks of winter. As reality goes, Phil is batting about 39% which bodes well for those that want this winter over.

On to more important things, we have a storm heading our way which will move in during the overnight hours. With temperatures today approaching 50 degrees, we will be relying on a cold front that will be pushing through and dropping temperatures. How fast this can get through the area and how fast temperatures can fall will be determining factors on how much total accumulation we will have. The fact that the storm pushes in during the early morning hours will help the snow cause.

As of now, I think precipitation moves in between 5am and 7am across the C NJ area. Precipitation may start out as a mix but I think it will quickly transition over to snow. The problem we will have is the upper atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow, but the surface may not be. So, until the surface cools enough to support snow, we will be looking at a mix. In addition, once the heavier precipitation moves in, that too will help to keep the column cool enough to support all snow.

As of now, I do think another substantial storm is bearing down on the area. There is two different ways I am looking at this storm. As I am thinking now, with a period of mixing to start, I generally like 3-6" from Philly through Trenton to New Brunswick with 2-4" to the north of there. If the cold front can push in and our temperatures crash a little faster, 4-8" from Philly to Trenton to New Brunswick can be expected. I still think north of there for NNJ, NE PA and NYC will see 2-4"/3-5"

Other areas- NE MD - N DE 2-4" if mixing to start 3-6" if all snow
                    DC - Baltimore, S DE 1-3" but there will be serious mixing concerns.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Winter Storm Watches In Effect- Burlington / Ocean Counties To The Southwest

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
718 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-020930-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.140203T1100Z-140203T2100Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
718 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF MARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST
  PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
  JERSEY INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON DELAWARE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH A SMALL
  CHANCE OF A TRACE OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION FROM
  RAIN TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION BEGINS PROBABLY AS RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE
  DAWN MONDAY AND THEN CHANGES TO SNOW BETWEEN 6 AM AND 10 AM
  MONDAY. THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY SOMETIME BETWEEN MID MORNING
  AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL PROBABLY HOVER WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
  31 DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

* VISIBILITIES...POSSIBLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ON ALL UNTREATED
  PAVEMENTS...EVEN IF THERE IS SOME MELTING AT TIMES. THERE IS
  UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BUT IF AMOUNTS
  END UP NEAR 5 OR 6 INCHES...THIS WOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
  DIFFICULTIES FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
  AFTERNOON MONDAY.

* MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER
  20S WITH SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FREEZING ON
  MANY PAVEMENTS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

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