Friday, December 30, 2011
Thursday, December 29, 2011
This time though, we look to have a couple nice days coming up this week and weekend before a cold front moves through next Monday. This cold front, has been on consistent runs of the Euro and GFS models. The frontal passage will lead to the coldest air of the season, and more than likely, the longest duration so far. Nighttime lows will be in the teens and highs will be in the low 30's. This would be for the period of Tuesday-Thursday.
While it will be nice and then cold, our chances of precipitation, as modeled, is scarce. There will be a couple passing clippers to our north, but for the most part, we will be dry. Our storm that was showing up for Tuesday and Wednesday is still modeled, just way out in the Atlantic where it will not effect us.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
The problem is the pattern sucks for snow, its 8 days out, and it is a perfect track......so, we need to maintain this for approximately another 192 hours. The models have been doing this for recent storms too, so while its nice to look at, chances of this actually occurring are minute.
Keep your fingers crossed....
Have you ever wondered what its like to be the one issuing Warnings? Here is a simulator with a bunch of different situations. Its up to you to issue warnings....
Monday, December 26, 2011
And, things dont look to be changing anytime soon. Through the New Year we look to continue with the above average temperatures and no snow. There is a potential showing up for the period of January 2-3. As you may be aware, the Winter Classic outdoor hockey game is taking place in Philly this year on January 2nd. It would be neat to have that in a raging snowstorm as opposed to the 50 degrees and rain like they had last year in Pittsburgh!
Anyways, the boring stretch continues!
I hope everyone had a great Holiday, and are looking forward to the New Year!
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
For the 23rd into the 24th, fairly common agreement the area is prone to see rain, and some will be heavy. Areas in far NW NJ and Catskill Region of NY to the northern half of CT will likely see some snow, with a small accumulation possible.
After that, it appears Christmas will be cool and dry. The GFS, which was showing the storm this morning has backed off that idea, and the Euro is off the storm train too.
More to come if things change....as of now, expect rain Friday to Saturday, locally heavy....those areas I mentioned earlier will mix with and possibly transition to snow later Friday into Saturday.
Usually a storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico would be a good thing, but going back to the pattern, it would support a fast moving storm that would be in and out in no time. Still, any snow on Christmas day would be cool to see.
In any case, uncertainty lays ahead. More to come!
Happy Hanukkah to all my Jewish followers!
Monday, December 19, 2011
fairly active period, but can this translate into snow? Well, a couple
shots are showing up on the models at least keeping some hope alive.
We are still in a period of not optimal conditions for snow, but
strange things happen leaving the door open.
Our first shot comes during the middle of the week with a lakes cutter
which will most likely bring us rain, maybe some front end snow. The
second shot, looks to come in Christmas Eve. Yes, Christmas eve. I am
going to leave it at that, because between now and then things will
change every model run on the specifics. There are also some shots
showing up between Christmas and New Years.
The main thing to take away now is that some chances are coming....
Although not optimal, things do happen
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Thank you again though, 12,000 is a number I would never have dreamed about!
We are in a horrendous pattern for snow, but there are some changes coming. Even in this terrible pattern, we were almost able to pull out a snow event (missed us by about 60 miles). Starting this week, it will "feel" much more like winter (highs in the 40's and lows in the lower 30's). Hopefully by the end of the month or start of January we can get back into a snowier pattern!
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Now and the overnight, extremely heavy rains will continue to fall over the region. Snow will try and work in early morning tomorrow.
More to come
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
More to come
Until then, we are going to be under the influence of a frontal boundary that will keep us cloudy and showery, and quite mild. A low pressure system will form off the NC coast Wednesday afternoon and will strengthen and move NE. As with these types of systems, the exact track and strength determines our weather.
More to come
Monday, December 5, 2011
snowstorm. For us, verbatim, would be rain to a brief period of heavy
snow.... Still a developing situation and plenty of wiggle time...
Let's see how the other models do tonight!
Again, we would be looking at a primarily small event, 1-3; 2-4 type deal (if all holds serve)
More to come!
In any case, it does not look like a huge event, although there is a chance of seeing some snow. More to come, and hopefully we can build some model consensus over the next few days.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Looks like central NJ is looking at its first snow chance since Halloween. The time period from Wednesday and Thursday looks to be the threat period. This will once again be a coastal redevelopment system that will track off the NC/VA border up the coast. More to come on this!