Friday, December 28, 2012

12/28/2012 Evening Update

Well, what a turn of events on the weather modeling regarding tomorrows storm. Yesterday, we were looking at a storm that was tracking east of us far enough where there was no issues with precipitation type. We were getting snow, end of story. Today, things have changed. Each model run has brought a solution closer and closer to the coast, and also transferring energy and phasing energy sooner. All this leaves us in a position where we may actually have to worry about a changeover to a mix, or worse, rain.

Models have been showing this all day, and each run is more precipitation and further west (bringing in warmer air). I am kinda hoping there is a correction back a bit to the east on tonights runs, but not overly enthusiastic that happens. Tomorrow, it is very possible as of now, that coastal areas get a brief period of snow before a direct change to rain. That rain/snow line will then march northward and to what extent is unknown, it will just have to be watched in a nowcasting situation tomorrow. It will more than likely setup shop somewhere around interstate 95.

More to come.

Tomorrow Update

Well, there is a general consensus amongst the models on a moderate snow event Saturday. We will have snow moving in around daybreak and will fall for the majority of the daylight hours. As of now, I am thinking 2-4" area wide. Places towards the coast may be limited due to mixing issues.

There are some issues too that could lead to some changes as well. Currently, northern stream (from Canada) and southern stream lows (from S US) are going to move towards the area. A phase is expected to take place just off the Delaware / Virginia Coast. If this phase does not occur, we would probably have some snow showers move through with a dusting. If it phases further north, we would have a decreased amount of snow. Further south, we would have to see how fast it could intensify, how close to the coast (closer would push the rain/snow line further west) it would track.

As of now though, I am thinking 2-4" area wide.

updates as always on twitter (@townerswxage) and facebook (Towner's Weather PAGE).

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Weekend Update

As the parade of storms continues, we now focus our attention to the weekend. After lake cutters and Appalachian runners, we finally have "our" storm for the central NJ area. This weekend we will see our first chance at measurable snow since early November. There are still some questions regarding the storm with its track, intensity and redevelopment. We will have a low pressure following a similar track as this past storm through the Gulf States but will then redevelop off the southeast coast, much further south than the previous storm. This further south redevelopment will allow for cold air to remain entrenched over us, and keep us as snow. The questions will be the same as they always are. How fast does the storm travel, how fast and intense can it become once it redevelops.

As of now, the EURO model has a solid hit, GFS is a glancing blow and the NAM is further east (snow shower maybe). As of now, having the EURO on our side is a major plus. Updates will be coming for this storm 4 times a day as the model runs come out. They will not always be posted on my blog, so please follow on twitter (@townerswxpage) and on facebook Towner's Weather PAGE.

This is finally a storm we can get excited about and track!

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Wednesday Storm (Today)

After a record setting day of severe weather in and along the Gulf States, we head in a different direction today as this storm evolves. While there will be severe weather, it shouldnt be anywhere near as nasty as yesterday. The severe weather setup today appears to be along coastal areas of the SE states, mainly NC and SC. Storms will fire, and the potential for tornadoes exists.

Further north, we already have had snow reports in VA, DC and up into Maryland. There is a significant battle going on now between entrenched cold air and the warm air riding up and over the cold. This cold air damming process will result in significant icing conditions to areas in the Amish country of PA through the Lehigh Valley. We have reports of snow that changed to sleet and now back to snow around DC, freezing rain being reported in Columbia, MD with snow further west. So, there is a battle going on, and it seems like it wants to take shape along the I-95 corridor.

Areas further north, like in Central NJ, we have temperatures in the upper 20's to lower 30's with dewpoints in the lower 20's. This is significant because as evaporational cooling takes place, our temperatures will drop and the dewpoint will rise until they meet. Having temperatures drop will create a nasty setup. Eventually though, warm air will win out and we will turn to rain. How long it takes the warm air, how long does the snow and sleet last will be the question.

I expect snow to overspread the area and then mix with and change to sleet. This afternoon I expect everything to change over to rain and come down heavy. It will be a very raw day. Areas just to the west and north of here will have a significant storm on their hands with major icing and further north, major snows.

Updates throughout the day on twitter and facebook!

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

One Down, Two More To Go

First, Merry Christmas to all my followers celebrating today. It was nice to see the flakes flying last night!

Our first event has come and gone. It was a minor event, but nonetheless anytime flakes can fly on Christmas Eve, it is special.

Another storm will be looking to make an impact tomorrow. This storm will be a powerful storm and will bring us a mix bag of precipitation. Areas further north, like the Poconos and NW NJ thru the Carskill region of NY through central New England will be bearing the real heavy snow. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for those areas. A foot of snow is likely in those areas! For us, a mix of rain and snow will transition to all rain and become heavy at times. 1-2" of rain may fall. This storm moves out Thursday.

Then our attention turns towards the weekend where another coastal storm looks to move into the area. This looks like a Sunday into Monday type deal. It does appear this will be our best chance at snow as it will track further south and east of the precious storms keeping is in the cold. What we don't want is too Far East where it goes out to sea. More to come on this as we get closer!

Monday, December 24, 2012

Merry Christmas Update

Well, snow has overspread the area. From this morning a number of models were showing a colder and further south solution. As the day went in and I saw reports in VA and MD of snow and accumulating snow, things looked good for up here. Don't expect a whole lot, and a transition to mix or rain may occur, so enjoy it while you can. It will be long gone by the time you wake up.

We have another storm for Wednesday Thursday which appears to be another close call, but I am thinking rain, and lots of it. Then, toward the end of the year, we have another potential coastal storm which looks to be our best shot at a significant storm. An active period ahead!

Enjoy the snow tonight! And Merry Christmas to those celebrating!

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Storms Still Showing Up

Models are continuing the thinking of a light to moderate event Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. However, over the past day, warm air has been working its way in over the area, meaning we may switch to or mix with rain/sleet etc. Thinking now snow starts Christmas Eve, changes to rain at some point and then back to snow for the end. In any case, it will be nice to see and we have some time for things to change.

The big ticket event is after Christmas. The period of the 26-28 is looking more and more likely of a coastal storm to form and bring precipitation into the area. This storm, as explained yesterday, has a number of variables that will effect the overall outcome for the area. Storms that have secondary development on the coast are highly susceptible for changes, sometimes even up to immediate impact. There will be more to come with this storm.

Until then, weather looks good for the final push to Christmas.

Friday, December 21, 2012

Cooler Air Moves In, And A Look Down The Road

A wild night of rain and winds will give way to falling temperatures and blustery conditions. The low pressure which brought us some rain last night will pull away and allow high pressure to build in. This will also allow more seasonable temperatures across the area. I mentioned earlier in the week about the parade of storms and trying to get that 50/50 low established. It appears over the next couple days we will see a 50/50 low established. Low and behold, we also have a low pressure system moving up shortly after Christmas. This is where things get a little exciting.

First, the good news. The GFS model has been pretty consistent about a clipper that may roll through the area Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Yes, this would more than likely mean some snow for the area. Something to keep an eye on. It has been a while in Central NJ that I can remember snow on Christmas Eve and morning. Keeping my fingers crossed. Once the clipper moves through, all attention will be focused on the 26-28 for a potential coastal storm to take shape. We will have a low pressure come up through the Tennessee Valley and transfer energy to a coastal low. Where this low sets up, how strong, how quick it can intensify will all be questions that will determine what type of precipitation, how much and how long. For now though, looking like a fairly good shot of two potentially good storms coming up within the week.

For today, temperatures will drop as the day goes on as we transition to more seasonable temperatures.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Stormy Period Begins

As the traffic line of storms continues  we are looking at a mostly rain event this week both today and then towards the end of the week. Over the week, the storm track will take the low pressures into the Ohio River Valley  and up into the northeast. These are known as "Lake Cutters" and are not good news for east coast snow lovers. Low Pressures to the west keep us in the warm sector since we would be on the east side. Even if a extremely cold air mass was in place, we would see a front end thump and then transition to freezing precipitation and rain just based on how the upper levels of the atmosphere get flooded with warm air. That being said, it will still be an active pattern and storms now appear to be lined up past Christmas. We are in need of one of these storms to get to that 50/50 position to clog up the pipeline of storms. Once this happens, and we can secure some colder air, we will be in business. The trick is, we need this to happen while we are in a conducive storm pattern as we are in now. Keep your fingers crossed.

Friday, December 14, 2012

Hello My Friends, We Meet Again

Or, as Alice Cooper sings.... "Hello, Hooray!"

Yes, Hello, Hooray, we finally have some weather to track!It has been a dull 6 weeks. Temperatures in the 60's, hanging christmas lights in shorts is not how things are supposed to be. First, I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving and for my Jewish readers, I hope your season has been festive and merry. Everyone else, T minus 10 days!

So, on to the weather. After a very quiet and warm 6 weeks, things are going to be changing. The overall weather pattern is going to be changing. We are going to have a line of storms starting early week next week and continuing for the next week or two. Yes, we will have chances for storms over the next two weeks, but will that equate to snow? This is the big question. As many of you know, the biggest storms we can get have to have a few ingredients. We need an overall pattern which allows for coastal development, and keeping it close enough to the coast to bring precipitation. We need to have a 50/50 low (a low pressure at 50 latitude  50 longitude) to "block" or severely slow down any storms coming up the coast, and acts to keep them along the coast. We also need cold air, so we need a moderate high pressure set up over eastern Canada which will allow cold air to come into the area. These are the main features, although there are a number of others as well.

While we have a line of storms stacking up, it is going to be interesting to see how these storms play out. Models have been all over the place. They have shown a number of solutions, often wildly different only hours apart. Why you may ask, good question. As I said, a number of issues come into play. Yes, we may have a coastal storm, it may bring us rain. This is okay though. As part of the overall pattern, we need to get a 50/50 low, which any coastal low pressure can do. So, we may have storm #1 bring us rain, but as long as it can get to 50/50 we are good (one part of the equation). So, storm #1 could potentially become the 50/50 low to block storm #2 and then whatever happens with storm #2 will effect storm #3. Its confusing, but think of it has a toll booth along the highway. A very progressive pattern (which we have been in) is like using the EZ pass lanes. The pattern we are changing too is like using the old school tool booth collectors. Its not as fast and sometimes the lines back up.

So, long story short, I see a storm coming for  early next week, which at this point, I think is going to be rain. I am hoping that this storm can get up to become the 50/50 low because a couple days later we could be looking at another developing coastal storm! And then there is even a chance, long range, of something popping around Christmas. So, buckle up and enjoy the ride. As always, follow me on twitter @townerswxpage and on facebook Towner's Weather PAGE. spread the word, always love to have new followers! Rapid updates will be put out on twitter/facebook and more in depth discussion will be done on my blog page (which ends up on twitter and facebook as well)