Sunday, January 29, 2012

Snow Squall And Beyond

A brief, but potent snow squall will move through the area over the
next 1-2 hours. With this squall, heavy snow has been reported and
decent wind gusts. It should last for 20-30 mins.

After that, our attention will be directed to this upcoming weekend
for a possible coastal storm development. More to come on this.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Observations Friday Night

Appears snow has started down just south of DC.....good sign as they are snow down there. Also, start of the night model runs have the area a little colder than earlier....which means we may get a longer period of frozen precipitation. With that, it is still going to depend on how fast that warm air invades the upper atmosphere to determine how much and when we make the switch in precipitation types. Still like my amounts and regions I posted earlier.

More to come...

Tonight / Tomorrow

***Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for Southern and Central NJ and Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Poconos and NW NJ***

Our system that will be moving in tonight and spreading snow over the region is on track. Snow should begin in the early morning hours on Saturday. Snow will accumulate rather rapidly since 1. It is nigh time and 2. Highs today will be in the 30's. I would expect most areas to have the ground covered by the time you wake up.

This storm will be driven by the infiltration of warm air into the atmosphere. This process is known as Warm Air Advection. These types of  storms are very tough to get an all snow event here. Why you may ask? The simple answer is, the entire column that precipitation falls through at the onset will be cold enough to support snow. As warm air moves in, part of the column will potentially go above freezing. This will cause the precipitation to either change to sleet, freezing rain or rain. If the warming occurs in the highest levels, the precipitation will melt and then refreeze as it falls closer to the ground (the result would be sleet). If the warming occurs closer to the ground, but the surface is still below freezing, this would result in freezing rain. And obviously, if the entire column and ground are above freezing, the result is rain.

So, the entire storm is going to hinge on how fast the warm air advects into the region. The sooner, more mixed precipitation, the longer, the more snow. There is no question warm air will invade, the question will be how fast. Typically, with these systems, it will advect earlier, so I am thinking things will switch over sooner rather than later. The question will then be, for how long do we have mixed precipitation. 

What I am thinking now is:

1. Areas between Philly and Trenton will receive 1-3" of snow. The snow in this area will transiion to sleet and freezing rain, and may have significant icing before possibly changing over to all rain..

2. Areas from North of Trenton to NYC will receive 2-4" of snow and then transition over to a mixed precipitation event for the remainder. Significant ice accumulations possible.

3. Areas from the Poconos to just north of NYC to north of 95 in CT will be all snow, and accumulations will be on average from 4-8"

Regardless of what falls, Saturday night may be downright treacherous. Temperatures are expected to tumble below freezing, so any liquid will freeze.

More updates as needed!

Friday / Saturday update

Still looks on track. Snow starts Friday night into Saturday. Amounts
and a full analysis tomorrow morning!

A few passing snow showers tonight.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Late Week Update 1/19 Midday

Late last night I said how the models have shown a colder guidance for the upcoming weekend storm. That has continued, and looking at the Hi Res NAM model, temperatures over the area dont get above 33 degrees for the event. This would lead me to believe that for the bulk of the precipitation this Friday Night to Saturday Night I believe, as of now, will stay frozen. This would be for central western NJ. The shore areas look to start out around 33 degrees, but will spike up to between 40-45 degrees during the height. This area would be from say Seaside Heights (fist pump) to AC down to Cape May. Areas from Hunterdon County NJ through most of CT north, will be a primarily snow event. The GFS model agrees. It looks like a primarily frozen precipitation event from The Philly-Trenton line on north. The EURO model from last night also looks almost spot on to the NAM model. 

Looks like our first winter weather event is on tap for the area Friday Night into Saturday! Woo Hoo!

Late Week Quick Update

Thursday Night still looking like a short light snow/snow shower event.

The big news, most of the night model runs have come in colder than previous runs. What does this mean? Models are showing the majority of the region starts as snow. A transition to mixed precipitation and rain would start in S NJ and work its way North. The way it is modeled, the line will probably make it up to about Trenton, meaning places north of there will likely stay majority snow or frozen precipitation.

I would like to continue to see this in future model runs, and hoping its still there when I wake up tomorrow.

More updates in the morning

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Late Week Update

Still showing a potential period of light snow Thursday Night into Friday. Now, dont get overly excited about this....more than likely this is going to be a very short period of light snow, maybe even just a snow shower. There will likely be little, if any accumulation with this. After this moves out, we will be focusing our attention on the Friday Night to Saturday Night period.

Models are showing low pressure moving in. The rain/snow line will be dangerously close to our area. The good news is (for snow lovers) yesterdays model runs really moved the rain snow line pretty far north, leaving us with a cold rain (story of the season). Today however, it appears it is keeping it over the area for a longer period of time and not moving it as far north. So, our threat is still there and I will continue to monitor the models over the next couple of days. As of now, looks like a brief period of mixed precip to rain. Areas further north (NW NJ, Poconos, North of I84) will be primarily snow, with a possible change to mix precipitation.

More to come. I do have a feeling that we are going to be able to make this one work this weekend!

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Late Week

Looking at two potentials for snow this week. We have a clipper moving in Thursday  / Thursday Night. As of now, this is showing very minor precipitation falling in the area, but nonetheless I will follow it. Once this moves through, we will focus our attention to Friday Night into Saturday.

This storm looks a little more potent, but the storm will have borderline cold temperatures with it across NJ. As of now, models showing the rain snow line would be north central NJ. As the storm moves closer, the rain snow line will move further north and eventually make it to the NW of NYC and north of the coastal regions of CT (up to about Hartford). Areas to the north would be snow, while others to the south may have to hold out hope that enough cold air wraps in to change the rain to snow.

Enough precipitation is going to fall that if it is cold enough, this would be a plowable event. The future model runs will be important to see how this sets up.

More to come

Monday, January 16, 2012

Up and down roller coaster continues

Storm comes in, rains, cold front drops temps just in time to rise up
and allow the next storm to be rain. Wash, rinse, dry repeat.

This is the story of the winter. Another rain maker moves in tonight.
This time, cooler weather will be around just to the north of the area
which will allow for a period of snow and mixed precipitation. This
period will be short lived until you get up to further parts of NW NJ
And the Pocono region of PA.

For other areas, more than likely will be a very very brief period of
sleet prior to switching to all rain.

Really, there does not appear to be any change from this horrid
pattern we are in for the snow lovers.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Cold Front

Is moving though as we speak. Expect very gusty winds all day and for
the next couple of hours expect some snow showers. This front will
usher in much cooler air and return the feel of winter.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

This week

looking at two storms this week. The first will impact us tonight into tomorrow. This storm will be a total rain maker, and a good amount. Amounts will range on the order of around 1" for most areas. Temperatures tomorrow will be mild again relative to normal.

Friday will be the next threat. A cold front will move through which will bring a round of showers, possibly switching to snow or snow showers after. This frontal boundary will usher in cooler air again....the question will be, how long does it last!

Monday, January 9, 2012

We have officially missed tonight by this much

Severe NJ Weather (@severeNJwx)
1/9/12 7:11 PM
Just got a report that its snowing in Atlantic City. The South Jersey Special has finally arrived!

Monday Night Update

Model guidance appears to becoming into agreement and holding this light snow event to mainly Southern NJ tonight. I would say at this point, no precipitation will make it further than Trenton. From Trenton to Camden to the coast, I would just expect some snow showers. South of Camden to AC down to Cape May, that is where any of the steadier precipitation will be.

Next weather maker will be moving in for Thursday. As of now, this appears to be a rain maker.

Monday Update

Euro model last night really dried the system out for tonight. It has gone from the furthest north with the system, to barely having one at all. The GFS model is still showing a mainly Southern NJ hit, but there would still be some snow showers / light snow in the Central NJ area. The NAM model still doesnt not even have anything hitting NJ. 

With the spread in the models, it will be nowcast time and we will have to see how this radar develops as the day moves on and into the evening:

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Snow Threat Increasing

For tomorrow night. Earlier, the Euro model was showing a light accumulating snow for Southern and Central NJ. The Euro has lead the way as the GFS model has also begun to show snow for the Jersey area as well. Now, the evening run of the NAM model brings the snow further north, but still just reaching southern areas. Looks generally like a light snow event for the area....more to come tonight with the evening model runs!

Upcoming Week

With another very mild weekend coming to a close, time to look forward! This week brings us a couple chances at storms. Monday Night, a disturbance will move just to our south. The Euro model actually is the furthest north with it, bringing snow into the area. The GFS and NAM models keep it to the south, not even grazing us. I will keep an eye on this

Towards the end of the week, we will have a coastal storm develop which will be a big rain maker. This storm will be associated with another cold front moving through, mimicking the past cold front we had this past week. This front will once again usher in cold air, and highs will be in the lower 30's.

The big question is, what happens towards the end of the week. Is this cold air going to be transitional or is it going to stick around. The pattern we have been in suggests it will be transitional....but there is also an argument to be made that this may be part of a transition to actually letting winter begin! That question will be answered towards the end of the week. Both the GFS and Euro have a sustained period of at least normal temperatures, if not slightly below temperatures for the remaining of the guidance, so this would lend credence to the start of winter after this rain maker on Thursday / Friday.

More to come!

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Light Snow Moving Through

An expanding band of snow is moving through SE PA and Southern NJ.
Nice to see snow falling in the lights outside the house. Possibly
enough snow to coat the ground.... And mother nature hasn't forgotten
about us!

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Flizzards Today

As the lake effect snow bands continue to develop, chances at flurries and snow showers will exist through the day. Some have already been reported in nearby areas of Eastern PA and Southern NJ. The lake effect streamers have been holding up pretty good, and that should continue through the day. Today highs will average around freezing, and the same will hold true tomorrow. 

Sunday, January 1, 2012

New Year!

Happy New Years to all my readers! May 2012 be the year of the Snow Storm!