Friday, December 30, 2011

No Snow, No Problem

Check out whats going on in England today....sea foam from the ocean is blowing ashore creating a white wonderland!

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Snow Showers

Currently have a snow shower moving through Burlington, NJ.... Expect some snow showers over the next hour or two in the area...

Maybe a sign from mother nature saying "Don't worry, I haven't forgotten about you"

Here Today, Gone Tomorrow

has been the story of the weather model longer range threats so far here at the conclusion of 2011. The other day we were talking about one run on the Euro model that depicted a good sized snow storm for the 3rd and 4th of January. That modeling has come and gone, and we are back to our pattern we have had for the past two months.

This time though, we look to have a couple nice days coming up this week and weekend before a cold front moves through next Monday. This cold front, has been on consistent runs of the Euro and GFS models. The frontal passage will lead to the coldest air of the season, and more than likely, the longest duration so far. Nighttime lows will be in the teens and highs will be in the low 30's. This would be for the period of Tuesday-Thursday.

While it will be nice and then cold, our chances of precipitation, as modeled, is scarce. There will be a couple passing clippers to our north, but for the most part, we will be dry. Our storm that was showing up for Tuesday and Wednesday is still modeled, just way out in the Atlantic where it will not effect us.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Another Nice Squall Line Moving Through

Maybe some of you noticed the temperature spike this evening, where it felt more like June than December.... Possibly aided in the development of another squall line poised to move through! Heavy rains, strong winds can be expected over the next 20-30 mins

January 3/4

Euro midday model run paints a raging snowstorm for the I95 cities and the NW Burbs for next Tuesday into Wednesday.

The problem is the pattern sucks for snow, its 8 days out, and it is a perfect, we need to maintain this for approximately another 192 hours. The models have been doing this for recent storms too, so while its nice to look at, chances of this actually occurring are minute.

Keep your fingers crossed....

Warning Simulator

This is a pretty cool site by the National Weather Service.

Have you ever wondered what its like to be the one issuing Warnings? Here is a simulator with a bunch of different situations. Its up to you to issue warnings....

Monday, December 26, 2011


Horrible does not even begin to describe this weather pattern. Tough to imagine that we can sit here days away from the end of 2011 and say, with conviction, that our greatest snowfall at the end of the year will have come prior to Halloween! Since then, we have had above normal temperatures and lots of rain. Even when it does get cold, it doesn't last for more than two days before we get a warm up and more rain! Frustrating to say the least.

And, things dont look to be changing anytime soon. Through the New Year we look to continue with the above average temperatures and no snow. There is a potential showing up for the period of January 2-3. As you may be aware, the Winter Classic outdoor hockey game is taking place in Philly this year on January 2nd. It would be neat to have that in a raging snowstorm as opposed to the 50 degrees and rain like they had last year in Pittsburgh!

Anyways, the boring stretch continues!

I hope everyone had a great Holiday, and are looking forward to the New Year!

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Lots O' Rain Moving In

Lots of rain moving into the area. Expect amounts upwards of an inch overnight. Rain dies down tomorrow morning and should be out of here by tomorrow night. After the rain departs, expect the mild temperatures from the past two days to give way to much more seasonable temperatures. Temperatures over the next few days after Friday will be in the 40's with lows in the lower 30's

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Wild Ride

As if the snow drought was not enough, with this rain today, we have a
chance to even hear some thunder tonight! Lines of storms are
developing and moving though Western PA. Don't be surprised to hear a
couple rumbles tonight!

International Space Station

Here is an image the International Space Station took over our area...
Check out the aurora over Canada!

Midday Model Runs

Looks more wet than white....

For the 23rd into the 24th, fairly common agreement the area is prone to see rain, and some will be heavy. Areas in far NW NJ and Catskill Region of NY to the northern half of CT will likely see some snow, with a small accumulation possible.

After that, it appears Christmas will be cool and dry. The GFS, which was showing the storm this morning has backed off that idea, and the Euro is off the storm train too.

More to come if things of now, expect rain Friday to Saturday, locally heavy....those areas I mentioned earlier will mix with and possibly transition to snow later Friday into Saturday.

Last Day Of Autumn!

The end of Autumn is here! Tomorrow starts the beginning of Winter. It has felt anything like the start of winter, and that really looks to continue. We are in a horrible pattern to lock in any cold air let alone have any snow. Chances will still be there, but for the upcoming holiday season, it looks like it will remain mostly wet. Thursday-Friday will feature some rain. Moving towards the weekend holiday there was a storm showing up on the Euro model, which was a thread the needle storm to begin with, and last nights midnight run showed little precipitation. Now, is this a hiccup or is it ingesting bad data? You can look at other models to find that answer. The GFS model was showing no storm at all this week and had it sliding off the SE coast. This morning, the early morning run shows a storm coming up from the Gulf of Mexico and riding up the coast hitting the area later in the day Christmas Day. Now, whats the reason for the changes? We will have to wait and see for the subsequent runs and see whats going on.

Usually a storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico would be a good thing, but going back to the pattern, it would support a fast moving storm that would be in and out in no time. Still, any snow on Christmas day would be cool to see.

In any case, uncertainty lays ahead. More to come!

Happy Hanukkah to all my Jewish followers!

Monday, December 19, 2011

Euro Model

I have not seen it yet for myself, but hearing the Euro models midday
run shows a decent snow storm for Jersey on Christmas Day

Of course, at this point, I would rather it show that on Saturday than
today.... Something to track

Active Period Upcoming

Well, the scuttlebutt has began about the next two weeks being a
fairly active period, but can this translate into snow? Well, a couple
shots are showing up on the models at least keeping some hope alive.
We are still in a period of not optimal conditions for snow, but
strange things happen leaving the door open.

Our first shot comes during the middle of the week with a lakes cutter
which will most likely bring us rain, maybe some front end snow. The
second shot, looks to come in Christmas Eve. Yes, Christmas eve. I am
going to leave it at that, because between now and then things will
change every model run on the specifics. There are also some shots
showing up between Christmas and New Years.

The main thing to take away now is that some chances are coming....
Although not optimal, things do happen

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Snow Showers

Just drove through a snow shower down in Deptford New Jersey look out
for snow showers this evening! Finally making it seem like it's a

Thursday, December 8, 2011


This is the current surface map out of the UK. A massive storm with
960mb low pressure is equivalent to the Superstorm of 93' and numerous
major hurricanes. They are supposed to be getting a second storm too
in a couple days.... Crazy!

Thank You!

As of yesterday, my blog has gone over the 12,000 hits mark....thank you to all that read, and especially the guy sitting at home who keeps clicking my link :)

Thank you again though, 12,000 is a number I would never have dreamed about!

We are in a horrendous pattern for snow, but there are some changes coming. Even in this terrible pattern, we were almost able to pull out a snow event (missed us by about 60 miles). Starting this week, it will "feel" much more like winter (highs in the 40's and lows in the lower 30's). Hopefully by the end of the month or start of January we can get back into a snowier pattern!

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Flood Warnings

Flood Warnings going out all over the place. Numerous reports of flash floods in DC, where a number of water rescues had to be performed. Be careful driving.

Snow line has made it past Harrisburg, PA and is through the Pocono Region of PA.

12/7/11 Update

Numerous reports of thunderstorms now being reported in Lancaster and Harrisburg, PA. Radar echo returns are getting really intense in the S Jersey and Delaware regions.

Now and the overnight, extremely heavy rains will continue to fall over the region. Snow will try and work in early morning tomorrow.

December 7/8 update

Heavy Rain to continue overnight and possibly end as some snow tomorrow morning. I am not expecting any accumulation. Temperatures here are still in the mid 50's, temps in central PA are already crashing through the 30's. State College, PA has changed over to snow. The rain/snow line will slowly make its way to the east overnight.

More to come

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Storm threat taking shape

Our storm threat is taking shape over Louisiana now, and snow has been
reported in Shreveport over the last hour.

Tuesday Afternoon Update for Wednesday-Thur

Winter storm watches going up for the Poconos.....and flood watches going up for Philly Metro.

Tuesday Noon Wed-Thurs Update

Midday model runs are in and it appears our storm is going to head even closer to our area. This would mean an extended period of cold rain and maybe a transition to snow on the backside. We will see how they react this afternoon and evening.

More to come

Tuesday Morning update on Wed-Thurs Threat

overnight and early morning model runs bring our storm a push further west, meaning we start of with a good dose of rain and then transitions to snow as cold air wraps in.

Until then, we are going to be under the influence of a frontal boundary that will keep us cloudy and showery, and quite mild. A low pressure system will form off the NC coast Wednesday afternoon and will strengthen and move NE. As with these types of systems, the exact track and strength determines our weather.

More to come

Monday, December 5, 2011

Wednesday Thursday 00z NAM

The night time run of the NAM model is in and shows a very nice inland
snowstorm. For us, verbatim, would be rain to a brief period of heavy
snow.... Still a developing situation and plenty of wiggle time...
Let's see how the other models do tonight!

Wednesday Thursday Threat Update

The American NAM model has remained consistent all day with its runs of the threat for Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS model, which was out to sea this morning has brought the threat a little closer to the coast, but not as close as the NAM. Temperatures are looking to be borderline for this storm, but, as we learned during Halloween, sometimes snow happens.... even in the not so ideal setups.

Again, we would be looking at a primarily small event, 1-3; 2-4 type deal (if all holds serve)

More to come!

Wednesday Thursday Threat

The threat still is showing up on model guidance. The GFS model who was showing an bigger impact yesterday, has been a little more suppressed and takes a more out to sea track. The NAM model (shorter range) showed this morning a moderate event that will leave a stripe of precipitation from WV through NJ.

In any case, it does not look like a huge event, although there is a chance of seeing some snow. More to come, and hopefully we can build some model consensus over the next few days.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Early December Storm Threat

here we go...... time to get the storm talk going!

Looks like central NJ is looking at its first snow chance since Halloween. The time period from Wednesday and Thursday looks to be the threat period. This will once again be a coastal redevelopment system that will track off the NC/VA border up the coast. More to come on this!

Saturday, October 29, 2011


I gotta say, I am really impressed with this storm. Currently, the
rain snow line is pushing through central NJ. Most rain will
transition to snow over the next few hours. This is much earlier than

This is a very dynamic storm! As it continues to "bomb" out, I expect
the snow to continue and be heavy at times. I also expect warnings to
be issued into central and western NJ areas. I also expect to here
reports of thundersnow as the day progresses. The winds will also be
on the increase and will have devastating effects where the heavy snow
sticks to trees. Numerous reports of power outages already in central
Pa, and as the snow continues, I expect that to move over the snow

Be careful on the roads!

Snow Mixing In Burlington, NJ

Heavier band of precipitation has moved over Burlington, NJ and snow
has started mixing in. Numerous reports of mixing already occurring.

Snow OBS

Precipitation has turned over to snow in State College, Pa.

Numerous reports of rain snow mixing or going over to all snow in
heavier bands throughout the middle Atlantic

Heavier bands over DC and Baltimore appear to be heading towards our
area, so do not be surprised to see some snow mixing in from time to

I am still not thinking more accumulations than slush.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Still Not Gung Ho For Central NJ

A significant early season storm is bearing down on the area. The proverbial kitchen sink will be thrown at us, and in many areas, records could be broken. We are dealing with a complex storm which is moving into place this evening. Rain will overspread the area tonight. Tomorrow, the storm will be developing along the eastern shore and this is where things get tricky. the snow part of the equation will come into play depending on how fast and deep the storm can develop. For areas north and west of the cities and I-95, you are looking sweet! There will be significant snows that fall from Reading through the Poconos to the I287 area of NY through Central CT. Areas closer to the coast will be largely dependent on elevation and falling into the heavier bands of precipitation.

The heavier bands that move through will change rain over to snow, and then back to rain. Generally, unless this storm really bombs out and can get some serious cold air into the area, I am generally thinking about an accumulation of slush around the area. Once you move further north and west into the elevation, your amounts will go up. There will be areas which get hammered, and a couple miles away will have nothing. A sharp gradient of accumulations will exist from east to west. For those areas who get heavily impacted, downed trees will be the biggest issue. The snow that falls will resemble cement and the snow will stick to EVERYTHING! Trees will get weighed down fast and power lines will come down. Extended power outages will be the norm for those areas. Remember Buffalo a couple years ago? Here is a video of that storm on Friday the 13th of October, 2006:

Weekend Snow Potential

I was able to take a closer look tonight at the models, and first
impression was wow! This definitely has some potential. But, I am not
snow crazy for this one.

First, a Miller B type storm ( like this will be) Are tricky to
forecast and the gradient spread is a lot less than a full fledged
Miller a storm. The gradient is smaller, but those that get hit, can
get severe consequences. Think back to last year, the great
thundersleet/ snow event in NJ and the massive snow dumping in CT.
This is the potential these miller b storms can do, but usually much
tougher to forecast where this happens. We are depending on a storm to
transfer energy to the coast, deepen enough to create dynamics to
crash temperatures and turn rain to snow and then expect accumulations
on surfaces yet to fall below freezing since the beginning of the
year. Could it happen, yes, but I am not liking the chances.

Second... It's October. Sure, rain and some
Flakes at the end, I can buy this. Inches of snow... No. Like I said
earlier, this is a central Pa to NW NJ through New England event
(6-10" are possible in some of those areas). It's just to tough to get
accumulating snow down here in October.

Trust me, I am the biggest snow nut, but I am not enthused with this
potential for snow. Too many variables to overcome. I will definetly
give more updates as needed, but I am not on the snow train for this

Any areas who do receive snow, there will be a number of power outages
and falling trees from the weight of the snow, and the wind generated
by the storm.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Weekend snow moving closer to us?

I had posted two days ago about the first snow threat of the season,
mainly over western areas. It appears the snow chances are moving
closer and closer to coastal areas.

As of now, rain will over spread the area and areas N&W of Philly will
actually mix with and change over to heavy snow. Any time this early
in the season you get wet snow, it will spell trouble. While leaves
are still on trees, they will quickly become heavy with snow and
break, creating power outages.

I think areas N&W of Philly, NW NJ, Catskills in NY and through CT
will have the best shot for accumulating snows.

More to come

Monday, October 24, 2011

Northern Lights

Take a look to the northern sky tonight, the northern lights are going
to make a presence tonight and you may be lucky enough to see them!


It looks as though some parts of the North East are looking at a
chance of accumulating snows towards the end of the week. These areas
are mainly WV, W MD and W Va and W Pa. At least we are back to snow

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Finally, An End To The Humidity In Sight

Today looks to be the final push to get through the humid and showery airmass we have been in. We will have a good chance of some rain and thunderstorms this afternoon, and then things should clear out overnight and tomorrow will be the transition day to below normal temperatures and low humidity. By Saturday, it will once again feel great outside!

We also have two tropical storms out in the Atlantic Ocean. Ophelia and Philippe are both tropical storms, but are not poising any threats right now:

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

TS Ophelia- Our attention turns back out into the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed yesterday in the central Atlantic. As of now, it is unknown if there will be any impact to the United States. Here is the graphic:

More to come

Saturday, September 10, 2011

TS Maria Update 9/10/2011

Latest guidance on TS Maria shows her re-curving back out to the Atlantic. This will likely bring rough surf to the coast, but little else. Guess its time to see what else is down the line.

Friday, September 9, 2011

PA Flooding

a Youtube flooding photo montage... unbelievable stuff!

TS Maria Update

As of this morning, most of the flooding rains have left the area. Parts of VA, MD and PA have been devastated.

We turn our attentions to Tropical Storm Maria. Maria is moving towards Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and will reach there late this weekend. Maria is not forecast to become a Hurricane until she reaches just north of the Bahamas on Tuesday Morning. There, the track will be close enough where it will bear watching for cities on the East Coast.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Deleware River Flooding

As of now, here are the projections for the Delaware River at Trenton and Washington Crossing:


A number of flooding areas over the region today already. We have a break in the rain now, but more is expected this afternoon before the entire system pushes out. We will have another period of heavy rain which will enhance flooding. Remember, if approaching a large amount of water on the roads, Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Then, our attention will focus on Tropical Storm Maria. This looks like it will have to be monitored next week. It will come close to the east coast. Here is the graphic:

More to come!

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Conveyor belt of storms continue

Well, we are dealing with remnants of Lee now in the Mid Atlantic and
the Northeast. Lee is dropping upwards of 6" or more in areas of MD
and PA. Places are being severely impacted by flooding. These rains
will continue for atleast another 24 hours.

Then, we have tropical storm Maria in the Atlantic which will move to
north of the Bahamas early next week. Tropical Storm Nate has also
developed today in the Gulf of Mexico which will spin it's wheels for
a few days. All this and we still have over another month left in
hurricane season! Should continue to be active!

For today and tomorrow, expect more heavy rain to move into the area
and possibly cause more flooding over the region!

The silver lining is, when the rain stops, we should not have any
restrictions on lawn watering :) that is, it stops raining prior to
thoughts of an upcoming white winter!

Monday, September 5, 2011

Tornado Crosses The New York State Thruway

This was at a rest stop near Amsterdam, NY. This happened yesterday, September 4, 2011

Active Tropical System Conveyor Belt Continues

remnants of Lee is moving through the southeast up to the northeast US, Katia is still out in the Atlantic, and now, we have another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa. If this can strengthen to a Tropical Storm, this would be Maria. In any case, the conveyor belt conitnues!

Flash Flood Watches

First, the good news...Hurricane Katia is forecast to now officially recurve back out into the Atlantic meaning one less headache for the area! This will be close enough I think to get some good wave action at the shores and cause choppy seas. Here is the graphic:

The bad news, there are flood watches posted for a large area due to a frontal boundary approaching which will also suck up some of the remaining remnants of Lee. For our area, mainly 2-4" of rain will fall over the next 2 days which will cause some flooding in some parts of the area. Here is the HPC outlook and the graphic where the watches are:

As you can see by the graphic, areas around Tennessee are going to bare the brunt of the rain.

More to come as conditions warrant

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Lee and Katia Updates

Tropical Storm Lee continues to pound Coastal Gulf States with heavy rains and tornadoes. There are numerous tornado watches out, numerous flood watches and warnings, and a number of evacuations underway. This looks to continue for another day.

Hurricane Katia still looks to make a re curve out into the Atlantic keeping it away from the East Coast of the US. Katia will be continued to be watched until she is no longer a threat

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Lee and Katia update

Tropical Storm Lee continues to pound the Gulf States of Louisiana and
Mississippi. If there is any silver lining to the massive amounts of
rain the area will see is that it appears that a lot of dry air is
trying to work itself into the storm, which may spare New Orleans from
catastrophic amounts of rain. There will still be a lot, but it may
not be any where near the 20" or so shown on models.

Hurricane Katia has been shown on model guidance to begin a recurve
back out into the Atlantic in 3 days or so. It still bears watching
until it is gone.

More to come

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Amazing videos from Vermont flooding.

 Sent to me by a guy I work with: 

I find the floods in Vermont very interesting. We got some pretty good damage in NJ but Vermont is destroyed.


Check the video below where several 500-1,000 pound propane tanks are caught in the spillway and leaking propane.  If you watch one video the first one is one of the better ones.


Taftsville bridge flood:


Car going down the river:


Building being ripped apart


Quechee Bridge:


Quechee Bridge other side after the pavement washes out: (a little shaky)


What's left of the bridge:


Other videos:


more propane tanks hitting a bridge:



Tropical Storm Katia and TD13 talk

Hurricane Katia has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm today as winds have gone below 74mph sustained. It is still forecasted to regain Hurricane Strength and become a Major Hurricane. Still a little early to tell about a threat to the east coast. Interestingly, our future with Katia may hinge on Tropical Depression 13 that has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. TD13, has formed and will likely strengthen into a Tropical Storm before making landfall on the LA coast. A lot of fuss was made about the strength of Irene and how it was downgraded and was not "as strong as forecasted." Here is why that is all CRAP....TD 13 is going to strengthen into a Tropical Storm and potentially drop over 20" of rain in areas of Southern Louisiana, including New Orleans. Yes, the areas that were devastated by Katrina, are staring at 20" of rain! Here are the graphics:
Precipitation over the next 5 days:
And, our track of Tropical Storm Katia:

9/1/2011 Hurricane Katia Update

With the new month of September starting, I also have a new Hurricane I am tracking. Hurricane Katia is a minimal Hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph (74 is Hurricane criteria). Currently, Hurricane Katia is forecast to become a Major Hurricane (Winds >110mph) on Sunday Morning. Below is the NHC's 5 day forecast. It appears Katia could pose a threat to the Eastern US. Extrapolating from the 5 day, it would appear Katia would split the field goal between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Katia will have to be watched!

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

8/31/2011 Almost Hurricane Katia, Still Chugging Along

Tropical Storm Katia is still chugging across the Atlantic. As of now, she is a strong tropical storm with winds sustained at 65mph. By tonight, we will most likely be dealing with Hurricane Katia. All eyes will then be turned to her projected path and if there will be any threat to the US. Here is the current 5 day path:

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Tropical Storm Katia is born

Well, our TD-12 has now strengthened enough to be worthy of a name. Tropical Storm Katia is forecasted to become a Hurricane Thursday Morning. She is still be days away from being a threat. More to come

Monday, August 29, 2011

Dont Look Now- TD12

While the area is still recovering from Hurricane Irene, just a heads up that The National Hurricane Center is tracking another storm off the coast of Africa (TD12= Tropical Depression 12 not a named storm YET). Here is the 5 day outlook/track of the next system that is being monitored.

More to come

Sunday, August 28, 2011

8/28/2011 Hurricane Irene Update

From last night, there were numerous tornado warnings through the area. There were confirmed reports in Delaware, have not heard yet from around here. Had to get my kids up and move to the basement 2 times last night! Anyways, here are the warnings that went out last night for our area:

Saturday, August 27, 2011


Tornado Warning (New Jersey)
Aug 27, at 10:56 PM EDT
Aug 27, at 11:30 PM EDT









Mercer; Monmouth; Ocean
This NWS weather information is brought to you by Weather Alert USA for the iPhone


Heading to my basement!


IEMBot PHI (@iembot_phi)
8/27/11 10:08 PM
#PHI issues Tornado Warning for Burlington, Ocean [NJ] till 10:45 PM EDT

8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Night Update

1. MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS throughout Southern and Central NJ. HEED Warnings! Damage has been reported all over Delaware from tornadoes.

2. Extremely heavy rains are moving into the area. Please do not venture out. Emergency Service response has been STOPPED in some areas until conditions lighten up.

3. We are in the crux of the hurricane now, at these conditions will last for another 8 hours or so.

4. IRENE is a massive 703 miles long. Stretching from NC to Boston!!

5. over 1,000,000 people without power.

8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Evening Update

1. As i have been harping on, rain will be the big issue tonight. Most parts, it has been raining since just after noon. We are entering into the "main" part of the storm, and will be lasting until Sunday morning. Many locations already are approaching 2" but here is a graphic for totals so far:

2. Numerous Tornadoes have been reported. Tornadoes have been confirmed in NC, VA and DE. Please, heed the watches and warnings. These tornadoes can spawn at any time, and will be fast movers. Here is the watch...includes Southern NJ, Burlington, Ocean, Monmouth and Middlesex Counties:

3. 1,000,000 people have been reported to be without power. Please make precautions now for power outages!

4. Irene is still a hurricane at 80mph sustained winds.

5. Just an FYI- Richmond, VA (~100 miles from the coast) reported a wind gust to 71mph.....they are a lot further than any of us in Central NJ.

8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Early Afternoon Update

1. New Bern, NC has reported 17" of rain. And they still have a long way to go.

2. CNN is reporting 550,000 people without power.

3. A Tornado has destroyed a home on Sandbridge, VA

4. Reports of people having to be rescued off their roofs in Kingston, NC

5. A Defined eye has no re-appeared on Irene:

6. NHC 2pm update, no changes.

8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Noon Update

1. Irene has really come to a crawl, but the overall storm is widening. Rain is breaking out up through central NJ. Also, the overall structure is looking better. Precip has replaced dry air on the western side and is cycling through.

2. Rainfall amounts so far in NC:

3. A number of tornadoes are being picked up by radar. If you land under one of these bands with yellow or red, be on the look out.

5. estimates of approaching 500,000 w/o power in NC, VA and MD. This number WILL rise.

6. Latest track takes Irene right to Sandy Hook, NJ (bad news for NYC, this brings storm surge to your doorstep).

7. This storm is just as dangerous as advertised! Heed warnings!

8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Mid Morning Update

1. Rain has entered NJ...currently raining along the SE coast pushing NW.

2. Reports closing in on 8" of rain in NC. These totals are reaching 100 miles from the coast.

3. Numerous reports of wind damage to homes and trees inland.

4. Irene is looking more "healthy" now than at any point yesterday. Radar showing storms now forming on the western side of the center of circulation

5. Barrier Islands have been holding together pretty well.

6. over 200,000 people without power in NC

Here are some graphics:

8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Morning Update

some things morning:

1. Sustained winds for Irene are 90mph.

2. Storm surge in NC is reported to be around 8 feet in some locations.

3. While Irene has made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC....rain is already spreading up to the Deleware Beaches and inches towards NJ. What does that mean, well, this will be a long rain event!

4. Numerous rotations were present on radar in NC with heavier bands of rain. This is the reason why tornado watches have extended further north, and will likely be extended into our area when Irene gets closer.

5. Regardless of the "strength" of Irene, this threat has and always be flooding!!! In fact, to me, the threat of flooding looks better today than it has at any point up to now. That precipitation field is HUGE! Usually, its common to see heavier bands with hurricanes, but this is solid!

6. While winds may be less than anticipated, its not going to take much to knock trees over. The ground is soaked!

Here are some early morning graphics:

Tornado Watch:

More to come!

Friday, August 26, 2011

8/26/2011 Hurricane Irene Night Update

As of 11pm, NHC has made no changes to Irene. Irene still has 100mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 951mb. It appears Irene is strengthening, and a lot of the dry air that was getting entwined in the storm earlier has been pushed out.

In any case, Eastern NC is getting HAMMERED with rain and tornadoes.


More Updates in the AM

8/26/2011 Evening Hurricane Irene Update

So, what do we know about Irene now that she is within radar view?

1. This is an immense storm. With an immense windfield. I posted a video from a town 150 miles from the coast with sustained winds already blowing trees.

2. Although Irene is a category 2 Hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph, THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS STORM. As I have told a few people today....there is no difference if you get hit by a car at 100mph or 115 mph...your still f'd

3. As of now, Hurricane Irene is STRENGTHENING and we may have an eye present on the 11pm NHC update. Pressure has fallen 4mb. Hurricane Irene is entering the gulf stream and there is a chance of strengthening, or atleast maintaining herself.

4. a tornado watch is issued for a large part of the northern area of the hurricane. A number of cells are rotating per radar.

5. The threat inland has always been flooding rains and power outages. THIS WILL STILL HAPPEN, in fact, in many locations more than 6" of rain will fall. This, on top of, 12"+ that has fallen in the past two weeks combined with ANY wind will topple trees. THIS IS STILL AS BAD AS ADVERTISED.

6. There is a chance that Our area gets some enhanced rain from a stalled out frontal boundary that passed through the area yesterday. With that, it will act as a conveyor belt for moisture to start streaming north.

7. NWS and NHC still say this storm will have a duration for our area for greater than 20 Hours!

8. Notice the brighter colors around the center... strengthening:

More to come

First Video From Hurricane Irene

Sent to me from my NC corespondent. She is located in Franklinton, NC...about 150 miles from the coast of NC. She is on the very outer bands now. Here is the first impacts of winds.

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Update coming out soon

8/26/2011 Hurricane Irene Early Afternoon Update

I apologize for the lack of updates today, been running around trying to get everything ready! Really though, no changes to anything. It does appear that the brunt of the storm happens overnight tomorrow until Sunday midday. It is probably a safe bet to expect at least 6" of rain through the storm. Winds will probably range from 40-60mph. Obviously, higher winds will be along the shore. Still appears we will be on the western side of the hurricane. Anyone reading who may be on the east side, your chances for tornadoes increases on that side, but can pop up anywhere.

Hopefully everyone has gotten their preparations in order!

Here is the 2pm NHC 5 day track:

8/26/2011 Hurricane Irene Morning Update - Don't be fooled by a Category 2 rating

So, Irene is now a strong category 2 Hurricane. What exactly does that my opinion....nothing. Its central pressure is still very low, which tells us its not weakening. Winds have gone from 115mph to 110mph. These types of drops and increases are not unexpected. If you were hit by a car doing 115mph or the damage going to be any less? NO

Please don't get suckered in to believing that a category 2 Hurricane is that much weaker, or even makes a difference. Irene is a large storm. Irene is going to be hitting the Gulf Stream over the next few hours, and may allow for some strengthening.

Model guidance over the night has sped up the Hurricane, and we may actually be in the heart of it when we wake up Sunday and it may be out by Sunday Night.

Here are some morning graphics: