Friday, December 30, 2011
Thursday, December 29, 2011
This time though, we look to have a couple nice days coming up this week and weekend before a cold front moves through next Monday. This cold front, has been on consistent runs of the Euro and GFS models. The frontal passage will lead to the coldest air of the season, and more than likely, the longest duration so far. Nighttime lows will be in the teens and highs will be in the low 30's. This would be for the period of Tuesday-Thursday.
While it will be nice and then cold, our chances of precipitation, as modeled, is scarce. There will be a couple passing clippers to our north, but for the most part, we will be dry. Our storm that was showing up for Tuesday and Wednesday is still modeled, just way out in the Atlantic where it will not effect us.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
The problem is the pattern sucks for snow, its 8 days out, and it is a perfect track......so, we need to maintain this for approximately another 192 hours. The models have been doing this for recent storms too, so while its nice to look at, chances of this actually occurring are minute.
Keep your fingers crossed....
Have you ever wondered what its like to be the one issuing Warnings? Here is a simulator with a bunch of different situations. Its up to you to issue warnings....
Monday, December 26, 2011
And, things dont look to be changing anytime soon. Through the New Year we look to continue with the above average temperatures and no snow. There is a potential showing up for the period of January 2-3. As you may be aware, the Winter Classic outdoor hockey game is taking place in Philly this year on January 2nd. It would be neat to have that in a raging snowstorm as opposed to the 50 degrees and rain like they had last year in Pittsburgh!
Anyways, the boring stretch continues!
I hope everyone had a great Holiday, and are looking forward to the New Year!
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
For the 23rd into the 24th, fairly common agreement the area is prone to see rain, and some will be heavy. Areas in far NW NJ and Catskill Region of NY to the northern half of CT will likely see some snow, with a small accumulation possible.
After that, it appears Christmas will be cool and dry. The GFS, which was showing the storm this morning has backed off that idea, and the Euro is off the storm train too.
More to come if things change....as of now, expect rain Friday to Saturday, locally heavy....those areas I mentioned earlier will mix with and possibly transition to snow later Friday into Saturday.
Usually a storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico would be a good thing, but going back to the pattern, it would support a fast moving storm that would be in and out in no time. Still, any snow on Christmas day would be cool to see.
In any case, uncertainty lays ahead. More to come!
Happy Hanukkah to all my Jewish followers!
Monday, December 19, 2011
fairly active period, but can this translate into snow? Well, a couple
shots are showing up on the models at least keeping some hope alive.
We are still in a period of not optimal conditions for snow, but
strange things happen leaving the door open.
Our first shot comes during the middle of the week with a lakes cutter
which will most likely bring us rain, maybe some front end snow. The
second shot, looks to come in Christmas Eve. Yes, Christmas eve. I am
going to leave it at that, because between now and then things will
change every model run on the specifics. There are also some shots
showing up between Christmas and New Years.
The main thing to take away now is that some chances are coming....
Although not optimal, things do happen
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Thank you again though, 12,000 is a number I would never have dreamed about!
We are in a horrendous pattern for snow, but there are some changes coming. Even in this terrible pattern, we were almost able to pull out a snow event (missed us by about 60 miles). Starting this week, it will "feel" much more like winter (highs in the 40's and lows in the lower 30's). Hopefully by the end of the month or start of January we can get back into a snowier pattern!
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Now and the overnight, extremely heavy rains will continue to fall over the region. Snow will try and work in early morning tomorrow.
More to come
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
More to come
Until then, we are going to be under the influence of a frontal boundary that will keep us cloudy and showery, and quite mild. A low pressure system will form off the NC coast Wednesday afternoon and will strengthen and move NE. As with these types of systems, the exact track and strength determines our weather.
More to come
Monday, December 5, 2011
snowstorm. For us, verbatim, would be rain to a brief period of heavy
snow.... Still a developing situation and plenty of wiggle time...
Let's see how the other models do tonight!
Again, we would be looking at a primarily small event, 1-3; 2-4 type deal (if all holds serve)
More to come!
In any case, it does not look like a huge event, although there is a chance of seeing some snow. More to come, and hopefully we can build some model consensus over the next few days.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Looks like central NJ is looking at its first snow chance since Halloween. The time period from Wednesday and Thursday looks to be the threat period. This will once again be a coastal redevelopment system that will track off the NC/VA border up the coast. More to come on this!
Saturday, October 29, 2011
rain snow line is pushing through central NJ. Most rain will
transition to snow over the next few hours. This is much earlier than
This is a very dynamic storm! As it continues to "bomb" out, I expect
the snow to continue and be heavy at times. I also expect warnings to
be issued into central and western NJ areas. I also expect to here
reports of thundersnow as the day progresses. The winds will also be
on the increase and will have devastating effects where the heavy snow
sticks to trees. Numerous reports of power outages already in central
Pa, and as the snow continues, I expect that to move over the snow
Be careful on the roads!
Numerous reports of rain snow mixing or going over to all snow in
heavier bands throughout the middle Atlantic
Heavier bands over DC and Baltimore appear to be heading towards our
area, so do not be surprised to see some snow mixing in from time to
I am still not thinking more accumulations than slush.
Friday, October 28, 2011
The heavier bands that move through will change rain over to snow, and then back to rain. Generally, unless this storm really bombs out and can get some serious cold air into the area, I am generally thinking about an accumulation of slush around the area. Once you move further north and west into the elevation, your amounts will go up. There will be areas which get hammered, and a couple miles away will have nothing. A sharp gradient of accumulations will exist from east to west. For those areas who get heavily impacted, downed trees will be the biggest issue. The snow that falls will resemble cement and the snow will stick to EVERYTHING! Trees will get weighed down fast and power lines will come down. Extended power outages will be the norm for those areas. Remember Buffalo a couple years ago? Here is a video of that storm on Friday the 13th of October, 2006:
impression was wow! This definitely has some potential. But, I am not
snow crazy for this one.
First, a Miller B type storm ( like this will be) Are tricky to
forecast and the gradient spread is a lot less than a full fledged
Miller a storm. The gradient is smaller, but those that get hit, can
get severe consequences. Think back to last year, the great
thundersleet/ snow event in NJ and the massive snow dumping in CT.
This is the potential these miller b storms can do, but usually much
tougher to forecast where this happens. We are depending on a storm to
transfer energy to the coast, deepen enough to create dynamics to
crash temperatures and turn rain to snow and then expect accumulations
on surfaces yet to fall below freezing since the beginning of the
year. Could it happen, yes, but I am not liking the chances.
Second... It's October. Sure, rain and some
Flakes at the end, I can buy this. Inches of snow... No. Like I said
earlier, this is a central Pa to NW NJ through New England event
(6-10" are possible in some of those areas). It's just to tough to get
accumulating snow down here in October.
Trust me, I am the biggest snow nut, but I am not enthused with this
potential for snow. Too many variables to overcome. I will definetly
give more updates as needed, but I am not on the snow train for this
Any areas who do receive snow, there will be a number of power outages
and falling trees from the weight of the snow, and the wind generated
by the storm.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
mainly over western areas. It appears the snow chances are moving
closer and closer to coastal areas.
As of now, rain will over spread the area and areas N&W of Philly will
actually mix with and change over to heavy snow. Any time this early
in the season you get wet snow, it will spell trouble. While leaves
are still on trees, they will quickly become heavy with snow and
break, creating power outages.
I think areas N&W of Philly, NW NJ, Catskills in NY and through CT
will have the best shot for accumulating snows.
More to come
Monday, October 24, 2011
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Thursday, September 29, 2011
We also have two tropical storms out in the Atlantic Ocean. Ophelia and Philippe are both tropical storms, but are not poising any threats right now:
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
More to come
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Friday, September 9, 2011
We turn our attentions to Tropical Storm Maria. Maria is moving towards Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and will reach there late this weekend. Maria is not forecast to become a Hurricane until she reaches just north of the Bahamas on Tuesday Morning. There, the track will be close enough where it will bear watching for cities on the East Coast.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Then, our attention will focus on Tropical Storm Maria. This looks like it will have to be monitored next week. It will come close to the east coast. Here is the graphic:
More to come!
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
the Northeast. Lee is dropping upwards of 6" or more in areas of MD
and PA. Places are being severely impacted by flooding. These rains
will continue for atleast another 24 hours.
Then, we have tropical storm Maria in the Atlantic which will move to
north of the Bahamas early next week. Tropical Storm Nate has also
developed today in the Gulf of Mexico which will spin it's wheels for
a few days. All this and we still have over another month left in
hurricane season! Should continue to be active!
For today and tomorrow, expect more heavy rain to move into the area
and possibly cause more flooding over the region!
The silver lining is, when the rain stops, we should not have any
restrictions on lawn watering :) that is, it stops raining prior to
thoughts of an upcoming white winter!
Monday, September 5, 2011
The bad news, there are flood watches posted for a large area due to a frontal boundary approaching which will also suck up some of the remaining remnants of Lee. For our area, mainly 2-4" of rain will fall over the next 2 days which will cause some flooding in some parts of the area. Here is the HPC outlook and the graphic where the watches are:
As you can see by the graphic, areas around Tennessee are going to bare the brunt of the rain.
More to come as conditions warrant
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Hurricane Katia still looks to make a re curve out into the Atlantic keeping it away from the East Coast of the US. Katia will be continued to be watched until she is no longer a threat
Saturday, September 3, 2011
Mississippi. If there is any silver lining to the massive amounts of
rain the area will see is that it appears that a lot of dry air is
trying to work itself into the storm, which may spare New Orleans from
catastrophic amounts of rain. There will still be a lot, but it may
not be any where near the 20" or so shown on models.
Hurricane Katia has been shown on model guidance to begin a recurve
back out into the Atlantic in 3 days or so. It still bears watching
until it is gone.
More to come
Thursday, September 1, 2011
I find the floods in Vermont very interesting. We got some pretty good damage in NJ but Vermont is destroyed.
Check the video below where several 500-1,000 pound propane tanks are caught in the spillway and leaking propane. If you watch one video the first one is one of the better ones.
Taftsville bridge flood:
Car going down the river:
Building being ripped apart
Quechee Bridge other side after the pavement washes out: (a little shaky)
What's left of the bridge:
more propane tanks hitting a bridge:
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Monday, August 29, 2011
More to come
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Aug 27, at 11:30 PM EDT
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHWESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
NORTHWESTERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT * AT 1055 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JACKSONS MILLS...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER...MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SIX FLAGS THEME PARK BY 1105 PM EDT...
CLARKSBURG BY 1110 PM EDT...
IMLAYSTOWN...CREAM RIDGE AND ROOSEVELT BY 1115 PM EDT...
ALLENTOWN...WINDSOR AND HIGHTSTOWN BY 1125 PM EDT...
EDINBURG AND CROSSWICKS BY 1130 PM EDT...
Mercer; Monmouth; Ocean
This NWS weather information is brought to you by Weather Alert USA for the iPhone
2. Extremely heavy rains are moving into the area. Please do not venture out. Emergency Service response has been STOPPED in some areas until conditions lighten up.
3. We are in the crux of the hurricane now, at these conditions will last for another 8 hours or so.
4. IRENE is a massive 703 miles long. Stretching from NC to Boston!!
5. over 1,000,000 people without power.
2. Numerous Tornadoes have been reported. Tornadoes have been confirmed in NC, VA and DE. Please, heed the watches and warnings. These tornadoes can spawn at any time, and will be fast movers. Here is the watch...includes Southern NJ, Burlington, Ocean, Monmouth and Middlesex Counties:
3. 1,000,000 people have been reported to be without power. Please make precautions now for power outages!
4. Irene is still a hurricane at 80mph sustained winds.
5. Just an FYI- Richmond, VA (~100 miles from the coast) reported a wind gust to 71mph.....they are a lot further than any of us in Central NJ.
2. CNN is reporting 550,000 people without power.
3. A Tornado has destroyed a home on Sandbridge, VA
4. Reports of people having to be rescued off their roofs in Kingston, NC
5. A Defined eye has no re-appeared on Irene:
6. NHC 2pm update, no changes.
2. Rainfall amounts so far in NC:
3. A number of tornadoes are being picked up by radar. If you land under one of these bands with yellow or red, be on the look out.
5. estimates of approaching 500,000 w/o power in NC, VA and MD. This number WILL rise.
6. Latest track takes Irene right to Sandy Hook, NJ (bad news for NYC, this brings storm surge to your doorstep).
7. This storm is just as dangerous as advertised! Heed warnings!
2. Reports closing in on 8" of rain in NC. These totals are reaching 100 miles from the coast.
3. Numerous reports of wind damage to homes and trees inland.
4. Irene is looking more "healthy" now than at any point yesterday. Radar showing storms now forming on the western side of the center of circulation
5. Barrier Islands have been holding together pretty well.
6. over 200,000 people without power in NC
Here are some graphics:
1. Sustained winds for Irene are 90mph.
2. Storm surge in NC is reported to be around 8 feet in some locations.
3. While Irene has made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC....rain is already spreading up to the Deleware Beaches and inches towards NJ. What does that mean, well, this will be a long rain event!
4. Numerous rotations were present on radar in NC with heavier bands of rain. This is the reason why tornado watches have extended further north, and will likely be extended into our area when Irene gets closer.
5. Regardless of the "strength" of Irene, this threat has and always be flooding!!! In fact, to me, the threat of flooding looks better today than it has at any point up to now. That precipitation field is HUGE! Usually, its common to see heavier bands with hurricanes, but this is solid!
6. While winds may be less than anticipated, its not going to take much to knock trees over. The ground is soaked!
Here are some early morning graphics:
More to come!
Friday, August 26, 2011
In any case, Eastern NC is getting HAMMERED with rain and tornadoes.
RADAR FROM EAST CAROLINA
More Updates in the AM
1. This is an immense storm. With an immense windfield. I posted a video from a town 150 miles from the coast with sustained winds already blowing trees.
2. Although Irene is a category 2 Hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph, THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS STORM. As I have told a few people today....there is no difference if you get hit by a car at 100mph or 115 mph...your still f'd
3. As of now, Hurricane Irene is STRENGTHENING and we may have an eye present on the 11pm NHC update. Pressure has fallen 4mb. Hurricane Irene is entering the gulf stream and there is a chance of strengthening, or atleast maintaining herself.
4. a tornado watch is issued for a large part of the northern area of the hurricane. A number of cells are rotating per radar.
5. The threat inland has always been flooding rains and power outages. THIS WILL STILL HAPPEN, in fact, in many locations more than 6" of rain will fall. This, on top of, 12"+ that has fallen in the past two weeks combined with ANY wind will topple trees. THIS IS STILL AS BAD AS ADVERTISED.
6. There is a chance that Our area gets some enhanced rain from a stalled out frontal boundary that passed through the area yesterday. With that, it will act as a conveyor belt for moisture to start streaming north.
7. NWS and NHC still say this storm will have a duration for our area for greater than 20 Hours!
8. Notice the brighter colors around the center... strengthening:
More to come
Hopefully everyone has gotten their preparations in order!
Here is the 2pm NHC 5 day track:
Please don't get suckered in to believing that a category 2 Hurricane is that much weaker, or even makes a difference. Irene is a large storm. Irene is going to be hitting the Gulf Stream over the next few hours, and may allow for some strengthening.
Model guidance over the night has sped up the Hurricane, and we may actually be in the heart of it when we wake up Sunday and it may be out by Sunday Night.
Here are some morning graphics: