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Energizer Bunny

We still have nice banding of snow that should be pushing through and
will continue to change between light ad moderate to sometimes heavy
snow. We will probably pick up another 1-2"

Although the amounts may not be there as a substantial storm, anyone
who was awake around midnight to 2 am were witness to near blizzard
conditions with very heavy snow. It's tough to tell how much we have
since it's been blowing all over the place.

The shear dynamics of this storm were incredible and it will be a
storm that I will not forget. Very impressive.

Anyways, moderate snows through noon, and then snow showers persist
through the rest of the day and night.

Overnight

Snow has really begun to pick up in intensity and the winds are really whipping. Expect these conditions to continue through tomorrow's rush hour. Snow has FINALLY started sticking to pavement surfaces, so we should start to see rapid accumulations. expect 6-8" overnight. This storm should also last into the day tomorrow :)

Oh, and Lightning has been reported in Freehold, NJ!!! Be on the lookout for that and thundersnow. Intense bands are starting to make their way into the area!

Here We Go!!!

looks like moderate to heavy precipitation along with windy conditions are settling in just in time for rush hour. While the snow has been light for most of the late morning and early afternoon and little accumulation has taken place on pavement, things will be drastically deteriorating.

Radar is backbuilding over much of the area as the low pressure rapidly intensifies. Look for moderate to heavy snow to build in and continue through most of the night!!!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Here We Go

The storm is progressing as I had thought. The next few hours will be the determining factor on the remaining snow amounts. The low pressure is well of the Jersey Coast and we are waiting for the capture and retrograde back to the west. If all goes as modeled, we will look to have heavy snow moving in late afternoon and evening hours lasting through the night. If the low is not captured and does not retrograde as modeled, than we are looking at lesser amounts (still good amounts). How it plays out over the next few hours will be the determining factor between 3-6" or 6-12".

Still looks on track from my eyes.

Today

Woke up to some snow, looks like we will have off and on moderate to heavy snow through this afternoon. There may be periods of time when the snow really tappers off, but this will be short lived once the low pressure retrogrades back over the area this afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates should really increase to 1-3" per hour from the evening hours through the night.

Moderate snow is moving eastward into Mercer and Middlesex County from Monmouth County. Expect snowfall rates to increase for a bit in about 15-30 mins

Not a picture you see often, at all

Notice all the Winter Storm Warnings over Nj and the Flood Warnings over New England



Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Evening Update

First, let me say thank you to the number of people who have spoken very highly of my page. This is truly a historic winter for these parts, and I have been oh so happy (if you could not have noticed)

Anyways, things are looking on track. Looking at the radar, we are already seeing precipitation moving into southern jersey. So, I may need to bump up the starting time to early morning (between 6-8am). Still looks to start as rain or a mix and then it should transition to snow rather quickly. We made it up to the middle 40's today which will have an impact tomorrow on how fast the snow can accumulate on the pavement. it will take a while for that to happen. I have been watching the temperatures today, and as i am writing this, my temperature is 38 degrees. What we also have to look at is the dewpoint, which sits at 32 degrees. That is important because when the precipitation starts, there will be a period of time when the precipitation cools the atmosphere and the temperature will drop and the dewpoint will rise. This is known as evaporational cooling. There is cooler air moving in, which should drop both the dewpoint and temperature prior to the onset of precipitation, so we could very well start out as snow and remain snow throughout.

Anyways, things are still progressing. I still like my amounts of 8-12" around the Burlington County region. I actually think there will be an area of a bit heavier amounts in the area and north of Trenton. This area will extend north through the Poconos and all the way up through the NY/NJ/PA border. This area will see amounts of 12-16" I am not sure how east that will get, but an eastern boundary around the Robbinsville/Millstone/Plainsboro/New Brunswick line will probably be the eastern edge of that. On that subject, I did mention this to be a interesting setup....here are a couple ideas I am going to through out:

These are some ideas I think will happen during this storm, not for the whole duration, but in parts

1. Long Island will have a driving rainstorm while areas back in Jersey will have blizzard like conditions

2 Philadelphia could be snowing while NYC is raining.

3 NJ gets more total snow than CT

4. Thundersnow reports will run rampant over central and northern jersey tomorrow evening and night!!!!! ( I am most looking forward to this)

5. Someone, not sure where, but someone will get 30" of snow out of this storm (best guess now would be in the Central/Eastern NY through Western Mass, Souther NH and Ver.

I am just throwing those ideas out there.....thats how whacky this set up is

Anyways, more updates as the evening and nightime models roll out!

Morning Model Run

Well, the weather models have begun building a consensus on the storm. I cannot emphasize enough how tricky any forecast is going to be with this storm. This type of setup has only appeared less than a handful of times over the last 200 years. The last time was March of 2001, when there was a consensus of a blizzard, only to be stymied on the last days leading up to the onset. It actually cost a couple weathermen their jobs (see google search John Bolaris).

The other such instance, was the great blizzard of 1888. That blizzard was a paralyzing storm that dumped over 40" in spots in CT and Mass. The storm also dropped 20-30" of snow in PA and NJ. (see google search Blizzard of 1888).

Now, do I think we have either of these two cases on our hands? No, I think we are going to have a mix. I dont think we will be missed like 2001, and I dont think we will have it to the extreme of 1888. Essentially what is going to happen is what i described last night. There will be a central low pressure area over the Atlantic that will wobble from the RI area back to the NJ coast as it will essentially be "stuck". Depending on how long that storm wobbles, and depending on how fast it can intensify, that will be the ultimate field to determine the amount of snow.

As I see it now, precipitation looks to start late morning tomorrow. It will most likely start out as rain or a mix, and then quickly transition to snow as the low pressure intensifies off the NC coast. Snow will fall for the majroity of the day accumulating 3-6" by Nightime. Overnight tomorrow, snow will continue, heavy at times with an additional accumulation of 5-6" I am looking to have between 8-12" by morning on Friday. Again, this storm is tricky, and it could go either way. You have just a good chance of 2" as you do with 20". It is going to be the type of storm where you will not know how bad it is or going to be until it starts.

There is also a good chance of strong winds creating near whiteouts and blizzard conditions. There again is a chance of some thundersnow over the area in the heaviest bands that move through....man, it sounds like a repeat of three other storms this year :)

Anyways, I will stay on it and keep you posted!

Models gone wild

the upcoming event is going to be very interesting. If you remember how I spoke about Miller "B" storms being the hardest to predict, they are. And this storm will be as every bit difficult. The present storm going on now moves out tomorrow. That low pressure does not move that far away. meanwhile a low pressure system is moving through Texas. The Texas lp will reform off the NC coast on Thursday and move North. Meanwhile, another low pressure moves in from the great lakes region/Ohio valley. The thinking is, all 3 of these low pressures merge into one and create a long duration event. There is great potential here for a very dangerous situation. The problem is, with all these variables, where does it end up taking shape? That will have to be ironed out tomorrow. There are very real possibilities of seeing 2" of snow or 20" of snow. The real dangerous part about this is the real outcome will not be known until the storm is here, that's what it will come down to with all these variables. For now, I am thinking precipitation starts on thursday as rain and quickly switches to snow. It will snow through the evening and night with upwards f 4-8" for central jersey.

A reminder, winter storm watches are posted for wed night thru Friday.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Wet Today, White Thursday and Friday!

Well, looks like another major snow storm is progged to hit the area for the end of the week. Now, there is not great model agreement on the exact setup, but it looks at a minimum as a nice 4-8" snowfall. The American NAM model has consistently shown NJ as ground zero for this, and paints our area in a lot of snow. Other models differ quite a bit, so we will see who the overall winner will be! I will continue to monitor it, and keep the blog posted!

NWS has already posted Winter Storm Watches for Wednesday Night through Friday.

Get ready for the great melt of '10

What was once a promising snow storm potential has now fizzled to become a rainmaker. Tomorrow, looks like rain moves in during the afternoon and will last thru Tuesday. There then does appear to be another low pressure that will follow on the heels of tomorrows event. The second low pressure does look interesting with a fresh supply of cold air moving on after tomorrows event. More to come on that.

Looks like we will see a majority of the snow melt with the rain tomorrow and tomorrow night. Make sure your pumps are working, they will be put to the test! Looks like we will see a general one inch of rain up to two inches in some spots!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Minor Event Tonight

Low pressure is currently strengthening off the Va coast and moving northward. Unfortunately, our area will miss out on decent snows. We will continue to see light to moderate snow for a period of time tonight through the morning hours. a coating to 2" can be expected. With the daytime temperatures up near 40 degrees today, it may take some time for the snow to start accumulating on the pavement.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Tomorrow

No Valentines Day Massacres in the world of weather this year. Remember 3 years ago, we had a sleet storm from hell where about 5" of sleet feel over the area. Anyways, this year we will not have that, although we do have a 12" snow base going!

Tomorrow looks like we are going to have a low pressure cutting across the midwest and Ohio Valley. This low pressure will once again re-develops off the eastern seaboard. This will be no where as potent as the last storm. In addition, we may have a period of mixed precipitation or even rain going before the snow starts.

The exact track and where the low pressure developes will have the ultimate say on how much and what type of precipitation we will have. There is not great weather model agreement either with this storm.

Tomorrow will be nice, then in the afternoon it gets cloudy. By evening, we will begin to see mixed precip or rain break out. Overnight, all the precipitation will turn to snow as the low tracks up the coast. By morning, we may have 1-2" of snow. storm moves out early in the morning on Tuesday.

Not as big deal here, but it will look nice! Areas to the NW of here in Eastern Pa up to the Poconos and Southern NY look to be the jackpot for this one with 6-10" may be likely.

Also a shoutout to the CT crew- You may actually do well with this one too!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Wake Up, Another Storm Coming?

Yeah, you are probably having nightmares already with all this snow we have had this year. Unfortunately, it appears there is more snow on the way for Monday/Tuesday. We have a clipper coming down from Canada which will again transfer energy to the coast. It appears that we could have a measurable snow event from this storm. Clippers typically are very dry systems, and are associated with very cold air, so we should not see any of the accumulations we have seen up to this point this year. Looks like a general 2-4, 3-6 inch event. More to come on amounts later!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick update

quick update..... Moderate to heavy snow has spread across the region. The low pressure off the NJ coastline is slowly meandering around. It will slowly move off the coast this afternoon. The low pressure is rapidly intensifying. There have been numerous reports of thundersnow. If you happen to get under a very heavy snow band, listen to the skies, you may hear a rarity, thundersnow. Also remember, winds will start cranking this afternoon. This will cause very bad visibility and near white out conditions! Phase 2 of this storm is right on track!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Noon update

A quick update. Second part of the storm is getting under way. We have been stuck in a lull for the past couple hours do to the low pressure moving closer to the coast. It has also come to a complete crawl. Radar is starting to fill on through NJ and heavy snow is on tap for the afternoon. Places around DC and Baltimore have recieved around a foot. Thundersnow has just been reported in the Villanova area of SE PA. it's coming, just give it time to fill in!


Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Morning Update

Waking up, you will find we have some mixed precipitation in the area. We have recieved about 4-5" of snow, and now we will be in this mix for a couple hours. We will then switch back to all snow this morning and we will see additional heavy accumulations. Areas to our south in DC and Baltimore have already transitioned back to snow.

NWS has issued blizzard warnings for the area due to the return of heavy snow and winds between 35-45 mph. DO NOT THINK THIS STORM IS OVER, there is more coming.

The mixed precipitation is our worst case scenario as everything now is getting encased in ice. Once the winds start blowing tree limbs and power lines will most likely fail. There is the potential for power outages during the height of the storm!

Quick Update

Models now have a consensus. Most wording of sleet and mixed precipitation is off the table, and it looks like all snow. With that, I am upping my amounts for Central Jersey to 10-14" with some locally higher amounts in some of the more intense banding.

Keep in mind, this is a two part system. First part, snow breaks out over the next couple hours and it will be a moderate snow. Waking up tomorrow, we should have between 3-6". Main part of the system will be when the coastal low moves north and we get walloped with some intense snows. The wind will be gusty and will be sistained around 25-30 mph. This will create near blizzard like conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 7 or 8" Snow winds down tomorrow in the evening hours.

More updates to come.

Snowing in Baltimore now, and the streets are covered down that way.

Nightime Models

All major models have spit out about 1" water equivelant for the regon. I am sticking with my 8-12" call.

Snow moves in tonight and should accumulate 3-5" by morning. Snow may iighten up for a period of time during the morning hours while the energy transfers to the coastal low. Once this low strengthen, our snow will become moderate to heavy and last through the evening hours. The winds will also kick in when the coastal low moves north.

Blizzard conditions and thundersnow may be present Wednesday day.

More updates to come

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Midday Model Runs

Midday model runs continue to show a good hit of snow for the area. All models are showing a storm, and most are spitting out around 1" of water equivalent. This would translate to between 8-12" of snow. This call sounds pretty good at this point.

Low pressure will move through the lower Ohio Valley and transfer energy to a new low pressure center off the NC/VA coast and move up the coast. There are a number of issues that must be taken into account for this type of setup. Amounts will be dependent on the exact location of the "new" low pressure where the storm transfers to, the exact track it follows, how fast it can intesify and where the inevitable dry slot develops. Most of these features will not be locked down until the energy transfers to the coast. Keep that in mind when you hear some of the bloated snowfall amounts by local TV Meteorologists. Also keep in mind, there may be sleet and rain mixed in depending on how close it tracks to the coast.

There are a number of issues, and I am laying out some of my ideas here. I do think there will be some mixing confined to the coastal areas of South Jersey. As of now, I think Central NJ on northward stays all snow. I think 8-12" is a good estimate now, subject to change based on some of the other issues I have mentioned.

In any case, the wind will be a factor with this storm, and we will have winds between 20-30mph sustained with gusts even higher. Also, we run the possibility with this storm of hearing some thundersnow.

In any case, it looks like a significant storm is upon us and hopefully people do not let their guard down since we just had 12"+ fall through the area over the weekend.

More updates after the nightime model runs and the model runs tomorrow!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Tuesday/Wednesday

I mentioned earlier about another storm for tues into wed? Well, all models are still showing a signcificant storm for our area. My concern is this will be a forgotten storm due to the big storm we just had. The upcoming storm looks everybit as impressive, but will also have the winds to create blizzard conditions. Confidence is high for a plowable event.

This storm is a Miller B type storm, which is a storm that has a track fom Canada thru the Midwest and Ohio Valley and then redevelopes of the East Coast. depending on the transfer location, how intense it developes will determine our amounts we recieve. The other issues with Miller B's are the fact that a nasty dry slot will develop. Those areas that get hit by the dryslot will have their amounts greatly reduced. The dry slot will have to be determined from radar during the event. In any case, more to come. Please don't let your guard down for this next one!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Get Ready!

so, this past 24 hours has been really nice for the snow lovers. DC thru Trenton was hit and hit hard. While the cleanup continues, just wanted to keep you posted on Tuesday/Wednesday. We have another storm that will be cutting thru the Midwest and will redevelop on the east coast and move up the coast off the shores of Jersey. Weather models are very bullish on the amount of snows we we can expect. All major models have this storm and for the most part have the same track. There is a very strong chance of the area recieving another heavy amount of snow. Unlike the last storm, winds will be howling with this one.

Stay tuned! This could be the best week of weather ever!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Heavy Snow

An extremely heavy band of snow is pivoting into Burlington County from the west. This line extends south through philly and down to baltimore. rates of 2-3"/hr are likely with this band!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Morning Update

There is an extreme gradient in snowfall from this storm. Places in far NNJ have barely seen any snow, while people around Trenton are closing in on a foot, and places outside Philly have over 20". I have seen a report of 21" in Brookhaven, PA. As the low pressure is pulling away this morning the snow will pivot on radar and move out to sea with the storm. We can expect probably 4-5 more hours of moderate to heavy snow before it begins to tapper off to flurries. Very cold conditions set in tonight and tomorrow so be wary of any ice forming from melted snow from salt/sand. Temperatures will not rise above freezing over the next 48 hours.

Get out and enjoy the snow!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Mid Afternoon Update

Snow is pushing its way up further north. Snow will be falling in Wilmington, De momentarily. We are about 3-4 hours from the start time. It appears that there is a good northward nudge on the noontime models and some of the short range models are showing this as well. What that means for us, is more snow. These were some of the intangibles I was talking about earlier.

One thing very impressive with this storm is it will be record breaking. This could be the single biggest storm for the cities of Washington DC, Baltimore and Atlantic City. That is a very impressive feat if it verifies. Those areas can very possibly have upwards of 25"+ of snow.

We also are going to have a decent amount of snow to contend with. I am raising my amounts, here are some updated ideas:

Newark/NNJ/NYC: 4-8"
Trenton/CNJ region: 10-14"
Philly: 12-18"
DC/BALT/WIL, DE/AC: 22-26" AC- if there is no mixing)

There is also a good chance of thundersnow and heavy snowfall rates of over 1"/hr. Be careful driving if you are out overnight. There will be significant beach erosion along the coast and winds will crank along the coast, not as strong inland.

Here we go! This system is loaded with moisture!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Midday model madness

midday model runs have all shown an appreciable push north with precipitation. I am waiting for one last model run to officially declare higher amounts!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Amounts

Well, there is still a bit of uncertainty with this storm. I am going with this call:

NNJ/NYC 2-4"
Trenton Area 7-9"
South Jersey/Philadelphia 10-12"
Baltimore/Washington 14-20"

Hopefully we can get a northern push with this storm to bring some higher amounts up this way. One thing is for sure, this system has a ton of moisture with it, and it wont take much to increase the totals. For now, thats what I am going with.

A parade of storms are also showing up on the models, so we should be looking for a couple more storms over the next two weeks.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick morning update

The National Weather Service has posted winter storm watches for central and southern NJ. Winter storm warnings have been posted for the Baltimore/DC corridor. For now, it appears the DC area through Baltimore and East through Deleware look like a solid 12"+. Here in Jersey, we are looking at a 8-14" with the higher amounts being south and the lower amounts north.

There are a couple smaller things that need to be hashed out, and if some of those come to fruition, we would see more snow. I am going to continue to monitor that and see what happens. There is a good chance that some of the heavier snows move further north! More to come!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Weekend Update

Well, here we are. Everyones anticipating the storm this weekend. Well, I am really excited. We have a ton of potential to have a storm to the magnitude of December 19 of this past year. We have one model who has spit out over 20" of snow, consistently. We also have some other models who have shown lesser amounts and are still flopping. The good news, if you like snow, is that all models are showing a hit. This, like most storms along the east coast, will be dependent on track and how fast it can intensify. There are a couple of other details, but I will spare the boredom.

In any case, before I commit to a forecast, I want to see a couple more model runs to see some more consistency. I am looking for a general agreement amongst them all. In addition, I want to see if we are going to have any mixing issues depending on how close the storm gets and draws in warmer air. Verbatim, the models today we would be looking for anything between 4" and 26". Obviously, the truth will be somewhere in between.

A rough idea of what I am looking for is:

DC/Baltimore area 6-10
Philly 6-10
Trenton area 5-9
NYC area 2-4

These numbers are very preliminary. At this point, I feel pretty safe with these as low amounts. HOPEFULLY, I will be able to adjust these higher tomorrow am.

HERE IS OUR STORM DEVELOPING! A HUGE FETCH OF MOISTURE!!!!







Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick Post- Tonight and the Weekend

Winter Weather advisories are up for Southern and central NJ. Looks like a period of snow sets in this evening through early morning hours tomorrow. Doesnt look like a whole lot, probably a coating to 2" (coating in the north, more as you go south).

This weekend is looking interesting. Another coastal storm is looking to take shape and effect the region starting Friday Night. All models are pretty consistent, and suppression should not be a factor like last weekend. More to come, but get ready, looks like it could be a big one.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner