Thursday, December 12, 2013

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15

The area will once again be looking at another storm moving in. This past week, many areas have eclipsed total snows from the last two years combined and we are looking at another storm adding to snow totals. We have a little different setup for this storm, which will make things interesting going into the weekend. We will have a low pressure system moving into the Ohio River Valley which will die off and transfer energy to a new low pressure along the coast. The big questions for our area will be, where does the initial low pressure die off, and where does the new low form. Having a low pressure to your west will spell temperature disaster if it holds on longer than projected, and likewise, if it dies earlier and the new low forms earlier, temperatures can be more favorable for snow. These storms have led to numerous issues that have happened before, and have both worked against us and for us.

As it is modeled now, it appears we will have a period of snow Saturday afternoon and evening before temperatures rise high enough to transition to mixed precipitation and then rain by early Sunday morning. We would be in for a couple inches of snow before the transition. Areas in NE PA, NW NJ, North of NYC and mid to northern area of CT will do very well with this storm. Its the areas south of those that will have the battles going on.

The NAM model has been the warmest of most models and keeps the low pressure tucked into the coastal region, while the EURO and GFS models keep the low pressure about 150-200 miles out into the ocean. The NAM would have a quicker transition to rain while the EURO and GFS will allow for a little more snow. I will be watching to see if any of those models begin to shift toward the other. In any case, all show a start of snow and a couple inch accumulation.

There will be more to come with this over the next two days, so stay tuned and enjoy the cold weather today and tomorrow!

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