Monday, December 9, 2013

Tuesday 12/10/13 Update

Models today have continued the general theme of a snowy Tuesday for the PHL - NYC corridor. All guidance is showing a plowable event for the area. Another common theme among the models is the formation of a rather robust band of snow. While this band of snow is showing up on models, and will be a driving force to greater accumulations, it will be something that will have to be nowcasted tomorrow closer to the event. Where this band sets up will be the "winners" in the snow accumulation. As of now, this line is forecasted per guidance to setup over our area. This is the reason why the Delaware River locations from PHL to Trenton is in a warning and not an advisory like the rest of the area. Needless to say, it will have to be something that I will be watching tomorrow. While the forecast is saying 4-6" for the area, if we do not end up under the band, we will probably have advisory level snows (2-4"). After the snows from yesterday, we can see what kind of accumulations you can get under one of those bands. Wilmington, DE to PHL to Southern NJ had a broad area of 6-10" of snow under that band that broke out. The moral of the story here is, we will have a general area of 2-4" snows, but getting hit by one of the bands of snow will increase those amounts, and that will have to be nowcasted tomorrow. In any event, precipitation type should not be a question. It will be getting colder as the storm progresses (as another round of cold pushes in) so we are looking at a solid snow event. This will be the type of snow that will stick around through the night and cause travel headaches since it will be blowing around and minimal melting will take place (sans areas that are treated). Start time looks like mid to late morning through the area. It will start from the SW and move NE. It will be a quick hitter and more than likely be winding down by the evening.

As always, more to come via twitter and facebook!

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