Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Wednesday / Thursday thoughts 11/6/2012 morning

Well, we have seen a number of model swings over the past day. We had a good agreement a couple days ago, but that has changed. From rain to snow, from onshore to offshore and from strong to weaker. We have seen models flipping all over the place. What does it all mean? Basically what I think is happening is the models are having a tough time accounting for all the players on the field. Upstream blocking, High pressure, Midwest disturbance etc. Taking those into account and then the timing has a great impact on our storm, or lack thereof.

You can see it here on the Water Vapor loop: Notice the darker area marching towards the "swirl" over GA, thats the disturbance trying to "meet up" with the low pressure.

WATER VAPOR LINK

The low pressure is forming off the GA coast as I write. At the same time, a disturbance is shooting through the midwest and trying to catch and meet up with the low off the GA coast. If this can meet up earlier, we could see a stronger, more inland track. If this misses, or the timing is delayed, we get a weaker, further east solution. For those of us who made it through Sandy, we are all rooting for the weaker, out to sea solution. This has been the trend over the past 16 hours.

Now, if the disturbance can "catch" the low earlier, we will be looking at a more inland track. Not so much inland, but more towards the coastal areas, bringing us a greater impact. The earlier the meeting, the stronger the system, the stronger the winds. And, the earlier they meet up, means a more westward track, meaning we stay a majority of rain (snow back into C PA). The further to the east, the better the chance for snow (in the Jersey area). And obviously, it could go so far east we are not even effected.

These types of storms are always touchy here. We have seen all kinds of outcomes. I will say this, any winds will be bad. Any storm surge now at the coast will be bad. Our area is fragile and any impact will have negative effects. My gut feeling as of now says we get a slop fest. The midday runs are coming up and I think we will know more seeing this fresh new data set. Is the futher east solution still looking good or is it going to have a bigger effect on us....more to come after the midday runs!


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