Wednesday / Thursday

It appears that we have a decent agreement in the models regarding a potential Nor'easter set to strike an already vulnerable area Wednesday into Thursday. We will have a low pressure develop off the Georgia / South Carolina coast Tuesday which will move north to just off the Cape Hatteras, NC coast. From there, it will move off the Jersey coast and then up into New England. Much like Sandy, this storm will be pushed along the coast because of a "blocking" situation in the upper atmosphere up around Greenland.  This will prevent the storm from moving offshore. In addition, it could aid in slowing the storm down over the area, which has shown up in the models.

What this means for us; #1, the shore will once again get battered with winds and flooding rains. In any other circumstance, this would be your run of the mill nor'easter. With the area and many defenses (dunes, sands etc) already ravaged, any storm is a worst case scenario, but this could be worse since it would be a moderate nor'easter. #2 Inland winds on an already fragile electrical system is another disaster waiting to happen. #3, the trees around here are considerably weaker now after Sandy that any more wind could cause a number of them to topple over. #4, Any rain on top of already flooded areas is never a good mix. We may be in for another 12-18 hour period of strong winds.

There are still some variables that need to be worked out, but a consensus is there that we will be effected by a nor'easter. Some of things still to be determined are how close to the coast doest this move, how strong can the storm become and how fast does it move? A tack closer to the coast would bring more of a wind and rain threat inland, as oppose to a further east track which could limit winds inland. Since the storm will develop off the Georgia / SC coast, how strong can it become? This is shown by the pressure. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. This is important too because the stronger the storm can get will create a bigger gradient between high and low pressures which will correlate down to us in winds. lower the pressure, greater the winds. and the third wildcard is the blocking. The stronger the block, the slower our storm moves. Models have been showing the storm stalling for a period of time between AC, NJ and NYC/Long Island.

As of now, rain develops Wednesday and will be heavy at times. Winds will kick up as the storm moves closer. I do think this is a rain event.  Snows will be confined to Central PA, Poconos and portions of New England (maybe NW NJ as the storm moves away). There will be more to come as the models come in. Quick updates of the models will be posted on twitter @townerswxpage and on my facebook page Towner's Weather PAGE.