Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Thursday February 9th Storm Update #1

Wow, its February and its my first post for the winter outlining my thoughts. Yeah, this winter has blown. In any case, we get these types of winters from time to time and over the past couple winters, we have definitely gotten our share of snow. Beggars cant be choosers I guess. In any case a lot of buzz surrounding Thursday. Well, the buzz is well placed as we are staring at potentially our biggest storm threat of the winter. Lets get caught up.

Its never easy to envision snow after 2 days pushing 60 degrees. But, its not unprecedented and once again that is what we are looking at. Models began hinting at this a bit ago, but have really decided to ramp this up starting last night with the NAM and EURO models. Today, all models are showing a big hit for our area.

What do we have? A low pressure system will be pushing into our area, as we also have cold air trying to seep in over the region. The cold air will begin its track tomorrow afternoon as temperatures will begin to fall in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to fall through the 30's tomorrow night. At the same time, the low pressure system will track to the east coast bringing with it precipitation. This is where battle #1 takes place. How far does that cold air make it before the precip moves in? If the cold air is delayed, we stay rain for a period of time. If it makes it in sooner, we begin the transition to sleet and then to snow faster.  THE QUICKER WE CAN CHANGE TO SNOW, THE MORE ACCUMULATION.....sounds simple enough. One way to help this, is to have the low pressure system strengthen faster, allowing the colder air to seep in faster and alas, our quicker change to snow. That's what the models are hinting at this morning and into the afternoon.

Another aspect of the modeling today, this storm will really intensify when it hits the coast. With that, the rate of precipitation will increase (see why its so important for that cold air to be in place?) Once this storm hit the coast.....what track does it take? As of right now, this storm is taking a classic track for the heaviest precip to fall along the I95 corridor through our area.

These are some of the setup parameters I am watching. As of now, these are all looking good for a good swath of snow for our area.

Where we stand:

1. Quick hitting storm. it will be in and out in 12 hours.

2. As of now, I am looking for a quicker changeover to snow

3. Intense precipitation rates where we can probably easily get 1"/ hr snows. These are the types of rates we will need for stickage after the warmer temperatures we will have.

4. Thundersnow cannot be ruled out (again, will be dependent on how fast the storm can "bomb" out in intensity.)

5. This will be a very heavy, wet snow.

6. Winds will also increase and coupled with heavy snows will not be good for powerlines and trees.

7. Winter Storm Watches have already been issued for parts of our area, I expect the areas below 195 in NJ to be included in the near future.

8. I will hone in on total amounts until tonight or tomorrow morning, but looking like 6" is a fairly good bet.

9. More updates to come, so follow me at
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