While the models all bring a decent amount of precipitation to the area, there will be a vast number of conditions experienced over the area. A few days ago, we were strictly talking about possible precipitation making it into the very southern part of NJ. Now, there is a lot of potential of serious talks about a mid atlantic and northeast snowstorm. While I dont think this will be an all out snowstorm from DC to Boston, I do think there will be areas where significant snow will fall. First and foremost, the biggest part of this storm will be the effects at the shore. High Winds, rain and high seas will cause more beach erosion and flooding. Please prepare for what you can if you have interests down there.
For our area, I am still up in the air. I think areas to our south, especially the western DC burbs, Western Virginia and West Virginia are going to get a good dumping. 12" can be expected there. I also think an area of 5-9" makes it along the DC-Baltimore corridor. Then, I can also see some heavier accumulations up into the New England area after the storm moves through our area. The areas in between, specifically the Philly to NYC to New Haven, CT corridor this is the iffy part. As the storm moves to the coast, the DC/Baltimore crew will reap the benefits of the snow. As it moves to the coast, it will undergo a change and unfortunately this will be the time it is over our area. The storm will not be "bombing out" and we will have easterly winds. When a storm hits the coast and "bombs out" we can sometimes see them draw in their own cold air, creating a really unstable atmosphere (i.e. the thundersnow we received a couple years ago) and change the precipitation to snow. This time, it will not be bombing out as much, the east winds will bring warmer air in from over the ocean and keep surface temps above freezing. Surface temperatures will not fall below freezing and will remain in the mid 30's. A majority of this precipitation will be falling during the daytime hours as well. This will lead to very minimal stickage on paved surfaces. Once the low can move and our winds switch to a more northerly direction, we can see some stickage, but at the point, I would be concerned with how much snow is left.
As of now, precipitation moves in around 7am. It will more than likely be a very wet snow that will have a tough time accumulating. As the day goes on, it may transition from rain to snow and back based upon heavier bands. As the day goes on, it may be sloppy out and it will feel pretty raw. Once the sun sets, we may be able to pull out an inch or two of accumulation. More to come as this still is only a few pieces away from this being a bigger storm for the area. This is where I stand on this day, a snowy and raw day with little accumulation.
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