January 2-3, 2014 Storm Potential

Well, here we are. Back to tracking exciting snowstorms! This one actually has me pretty excited. Not only at the potential snow impact, but for the fact that following the storm, we are looking at the coldest temperatures in the area since 1994. I am trying to think back that far, and think I can remember that. If my memory serves correct, we had an snow to rain event that was followed by a very powerful cold front that dropped many areas to near zero and highs were only in the single digits to teens. I can remember it well because we had about 8-10" of snow, followed by a period of heavy rain and then everything froze. We were able to ride our bikes across the top of the snow. We had a blast for a week (we were out of school for the week because of the temperatures). These are temps expected (from the EURO model) for Saturday Night (during the Eagles game)

So, its going to get cold after some snow....but how much? Well, thats the question. We have a pretty dynamic storm setting up, with a lot of moving pieces. While the models have been hinting at the potential storm for some time, we are now getting closer to a point where the models are able to ingest much better data. For our storms, data is best taken when the pieces of the storm come closer to the United States. Obviously, that is where we have all of our sensors, observers, weather balloons, etc. We are getting to that period tonight and tomorrow morning.

You may hear the terms Miller A and Miller B storms over the course of the week. This will be the type of storm we will be dealing with. Either, the storm will be coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the coast (Miller A) or will be diving into Ohio and then redeveloping along the East Coast (Miller B). Its unclear at this time which type we will be dealing with, but both can have significant impacts for our area. Miller A storms tend to affect a larger area ( entire east coast) while the Miller B storms will only impact those areas where redevelopment takes place and north. Both are capable of delivering a very big punch. Obviously, track, type, timing, etc will all play crucial factors to the final outcome. For now, I am expecting a plowable snow event (greater than 3") for the area. This will be for the period Thursday thru Friday. As models continue to evolve to a solution, I will continually update. The GFS and Euro models have both shown significant storms this afternoon. However, I am going to wait to see if they can get some consistency over the next few model runs. Until then, we are looking at a potential storm. Potential or not, this one has me pretty excited! Buckle Up!

SWS- Scattered Snow Showers

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2013-12-24T16:46:00GMT-0500
2013-12-24T20:15:00GMT-0500

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BETWEEN NOW AND 800 PM, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP A DUSTING OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING THIS EVENING, BE PREPARED FOR BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY.

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Camden; Gloucester; Northwestern Burlington; Salem

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Corey

coreytowner@gmail.com

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Evening Update 12/16/13)

No major changes on the model runs today. Snow spreads into the region between 4-7am and will likely be out of the area come early afternoon. No real major changes to the accumulations. Shore areas may start as snow, but likely will change over to rain rather quickly with no accumulation.  I am liking 1-2" for essentially the lower half of Jersey (South of Burlington / Ocean Counties) in areas where it snows. Northern Jersey (North of Mercer/Monmouth) could see 2-4". 

There is also some modeling that is showing another wave moving through tomorrow night for the southern half of NJ. This could potentially drop another coating up to 1" for some areas if it materializes. 

Also, another thing I cannot rule out is the fact that Clippers often times come in moisture starved and can really under perform. Our best accumulations come from a Clipper that moves in, hits the ocean and intensifies, dropping measurable snowfalls. This will not be the case with this system. This will be a quick moving system and with no blocking downstream, it will fly through. So, that's another thing I will be watching. 

For those of you who do not like snow, in 36 hours our temperatures will be moderating to more normal temperatures. Then, this weekend, we will be looking at highs in the 50's. In addition, winter officially starts this weekend. Colder temperatures will return around the Christmas time. 

Winter Weather Advisory Issued

Winter Weather Advisory (New Jersey)
2013-12-16T14:56:00GMT-0500
2013-12-17T16:00:00GMT-0500

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A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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...WINTERS EMPHATIC DECEMBER START WITH BELOW NORMAL COLD AND FREQUENT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE WITH A QUICK HITTING SNOW EVENT TUESDAY MORNING...

.HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REFORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON TUESDAY.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA AND ITS NEARBY SUBURBS TO NEW BRUNSWICK NEW JERSEY INCLUSIVE OF ALL OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY TO THE COAST. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. LEFTOVER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN EAST CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... PARTICULARLY MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED 3 OR 4 INCH STORM TOTALS MAY OCCUR. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM. * WINDS...WILL BE LIGHT. * IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ALL UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BE SLIPPERY AND HAZARDOUS. PLAN ON MORNING TRAVEL DELAYS AND LEAVE EARLIER TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON TIME. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

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Camden; Eastern Monmouth; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth

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Corey

coreytowner@gmail.com

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat (Update 12/16/13 morning)

All models are showing a clipper moving into the area tomorrow morning bringing another round of snow for the area. This will be primarily an accumulating snow for areas north of S NJ - Philly line. Our area can expect probably on the order of 1-3" with 1" being in the lower areas and more as you go north. Areas north of Newark into the Lower Hudson Valley and CT could potentially be looking at 2-4". This will be another quick moving storm. Precipitation breaks out over the morning hours, and will wrap up during the afternoon.

Interesting tidbit on the noontime NAM model run, still has a little area that pops up tomorrow night as a second wave moves in, which focuses precipitation over S NJ. They could possible pick up another 1-2" down there assuming temperatures cooperate.

Once this passes through, temperatures will moderate through the rest of the week. Towards the end of the week and the weekend, we may have highs into the 50's over the C NJ area. Temperatures do look to once again get colder around Christmas.

12/17/2013 Clipper Threat

On the heels of a very good week for the snow lovers, we begin this week with a clipper threat heading our way for Tuesday. This will once again be a quick hitting storm, but will drop some accumulating snow in our area. Snow looks to move in during the late morning hours and then will be out by the evening. Models are also showing another disturbance that may move in overnight Tuesday and bring some more snow showers to the area. Generally speaking, this event will be a E PA, NJ, S NY up through the Northeast. More to come on this! Generally looking at a 1-3" / 2-4" type event.

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15 (Update FRIDAY PM)

So, I have stressed over the past two days about tight gradients. Today, models continued to show that in our area, 40 miles can really make the difference between no accumulations and quite possibly 6-10". We could really see something like Southern Bucks Co, PA with 2" while Northern Bucks County is getting 8" I cannot stress enough how close this will be. There will be some things that will be nowcasted tomorrow that could change things as well. I will be updating frequently throughout the day on facebook and twitter.

Some of the things I will be looking at tomorrow:

1. Miller B type storms (which this is) usually leads to some type of "dry slot". This is an area where there is a break in precipitation. When and where this happens will obviously have an effect.

2. Placement of high pressure in Canada (directly north of us). If it is closer to the Canada/US border, we could see the cold air hold on longer. If it migrates up to Quebec or farther north, we may have an earlier transition to sleet

3. Any banding that develops that can enhance snowfall totals. 

4. Where the primary low pressure dies and where the new one takes over. Either of these things can also effect our area

In any case, on to amounts. 

coastal areas of NJ, I am expecting an almost all rain event. Possibly some snow to start, but quickly to rain

inland from there, SNJ East of the NJ TP up to 195 I expect 1-3" then rain

PHL - Trenton - West of the NJTP 1-3" before turning over to a bit of sleet and then rain

just to the NW of PHL - Trenton- New Brunswick - Newark, NJ 3-6" mix then rain late

Areas of the Lehigh Valley, C PA , NW NJ, Lower Hudson Valley through S CT 6-10"

Central and Northern CT through MASS up through VT, NH and Maine generally 10-14"

These are my thoughts at this time. Tomorrow will be a nowcasting day and any changes can lead to significant changes. 

Winter Weather Advisory

Mercer/Middlesex south gets the advisory, north of that, warnings are in effect. This is going to be a tight gradient, 40 miles can seperate 10" of snow. 

Winter Weather Advisory (New Jersey)
2013-12-13T15:24:00GMT-0500
2013-12-14T17:00:00GMT-0500

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A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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...A WINTER STORM AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL AFFECT THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS FORECAST...AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST. WARMER AIR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM CENTER SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT... RESULTING IN SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SLEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN DELAWARE THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY NEAR AND JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...ALONG WITH A LITTLE SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. * TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING MID OR LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN. * TEMPERATURES...RISING IN THE MID 30S BY LATE IN THE DAY. * IMPACTS...INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED.

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Camden; Gloucester; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Western Monmouth

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Corey

coreytowner@gmail.com

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15 (Update Thurs PM)

Well, the nighttime model runs are in and......... they paint a MUCH colder scenario. While this scenario is nice to see, it is really a thread the needle type of situation. There is a MASSIVE gradient over about  40 miles from nothing along the coast to 8" along the Delaware River. And while I am in no way calling for that much snow anywhere near this area, it cannot be discounted. A shift in any amount one way or the other can lead to drastically different outcomes.

So, for now, lets take it with a grain of salt. For now, know that this storm will start out as snow Saturday morning. We will more than likely receive an accumulating snow. I still believe that we transition to a mix and then rain, the question will be when. I am not jumping on the snow train yet after one model run, but it will be something to look forward to during the day tomorrow and tomorrow night.

I will be following tomorrow and will have my final thoughts on this tomorrow night.

Weekend Storm 12/14-12/15

The area will once again be looking at another storm moving in. This past week, many areas have eclipsed total snows from the last two years combined and we are looking at another storm adding to snow totals. We have a little different setup for this storm, which will make things interesting going into the weekend. We will have a low pressure system moving into the Ohio River Valley which will die off and transfer energy to a new low pressure along the coast. The big questions for our area will be, where does the initial low pressure die off, and where does the new low form. Having a low pressure to your west will spell temperature disaster if it holds on longer than projected, and likewise, if it dies earlier and the new low forms earlier, temperatures can be more favorable for snow. These storms have led to numerous issues that have happened before, and have both worked against us and for us.

As it is modeled now, it appears we will have a period of snow Saturday afternoon and evening before temperatures rise high enough to transition to mixed precipitation and then rain by early Sunday morning. We would be in for a couple inches of snow before the transition. Areas in NE PA, NW NJ, North of NYC and mid to northern area of CT will do very well with this storm. Its the areas south of those that will have the battles going on.

The NAM model has been the warmest of most models and keeps the low pressure tucked into the coastal region, while the EURO and GFS models keep the low pressure about 150-200 miles out into the ocean. The NAM would have a quicker transition to rain while the EURO and GFS will allow for a little more snow. I will be watching to see if any of those models begin to shift toward the other. In any case, all show a start of snow and a couple inch accumulation.

There will be more to come with this over the next two days, so stay tuned and enjoy the cold weather today and tomorrow!

Tuesday 12/10/13 Update

Models today have continued the general theme of a snowy Tuesday for the PHL - NYC corridor. All guidance is showing a plowable event for the area. Another common theme among the models is the formation of a rather robust band of snow. While this band of snow is showing up on models, and will be a driving force to greater accumulations, it will be something that will have to be nowcasted tomorrow closer to the event. Where this band sets up will be the "winners" in the snow accumulation. As of now, this line is forecasted per guidance to setup over our area. This is the reason why the Delaware River locations from PHL to Trenton is in a warning and not an advisory like the rest of the area. Needless to say, it will have to be something that I will be watching tomorrow. While the forecast is saying 4-6" for the area, if we do not end up under the band, we will probably have advisory level snows (2-4"). After the snows from yesterday, we can see what kind of accumulations you can get under one of those bands. Wilmington, DE to PHL to Southern NJ had a broad area of 6-10" of snow under that band that broke out. The moral of the story here is, we will have a general area of 2-4" snows, but getting hit by one of the bands of snow will increase those amounts, and that will have to be nowcasted tomorrow. In any event, precipitation type should not be a question. It will be getting colder as the storm progresses (as another round of cold pushes in) so we are looking at a solid snow event. This will be the type of snow that will stick around through the night and cause travel headaches since it will be blowing around and minimal melting will take place (sans areas that are treated). Start time looks like mid to late morning through the area. It will start from the SW and move NE. It will be a quick hitter and more than likely be winding down by the evening.

As always, more to come via twitter and facebook!

SWS- Foggy Areas

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2013-12-09T14:29:00GMT-0500
2013-12-09T16:30:00GMT-0500

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...PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THE START OF THE EVENING COMMUTE...

THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SNOW PACK HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG THAT IS DENSE IN SOME AREAS. VISIBILITIES IN SOME LOCATIONS ARE LESS THAN HALF A MILE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE NEAR OPEN FIELDS AND ON SOME HIGHER TERRAIN ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING INTO THIS EVENING, PLEASE BE WARY OF CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE LOW BEAMS WHILE DRIVING THROUGH THICKER PATCHES AND ALSO GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA BRAKING DISTANCE. PLEASE ALSO BE WARY FOR PEDESTRIANS, ESPECIALLY ONCE IT STARTS GETTING DARK.

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Camden; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Morris; Northwestern Burlington; Somerset; Sussex; Warren

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Tuesday 12/10 Winter Weather Event

The C NJ area has now changed over to rain, bringing to a close the frozen precipitation aspect of the early season surprise. Many areas exceeded snowfall amounts, and areas not expected to receive snow got a nice surprise (unless you dislike snow). So, what happened? Well, for starters, the cold high pressure that had cold air over the region prior to the precipitation start was much more stubborn than modeled. The High pressure to the north did not budge, and the over-running warm air caused some mesoscale banding to set up with an area of very significant snows. Anyone watching the Eagles game yesterday saw first hand the tenacity of the falling snow. This part of the storm was not picked up by the major global models. Instead, it was picked up by the very short term HRRR model which had this nailed from Sunday morning. So, once again, models are not gospel and there is always room for now-casting events. Luckily, with warning systems, social media and other means, warnings can get out much faster for alerting citizens. In any case, many areas received 6"+ in the greater Philly area. 

As this storm winds down, we turn our attention to Tuesday. Once again, a storm will move in bringing the area another chance at some snow. This storm will move in around noon and will be out of the area by late evening. It will be a quick hitter, but areas can generally look to pick up 2-4"  with some areas getting a little more with any areas that get hit with a heavier snow band. This will have some impacts on the evening rush hour. Once this storm moves out, we will be entrenched into a cold pattern for the foreseeable future. 

Our next shot at a storm will come this weekend, towards the end. The Euro model is showing a low pressure which will head to the east coast. Its movement from there is still unknown, but will be watched over the next couple of days. 

Thanks for the many observations that were tweeted or facebooked. Feel free to send photos / tweets etc and I will retweet them or share them out to everyone! 

Winter Storm Warning

Winter Storm Warning (New Jersey)
2013-12-08T12:41:00GMT-0500
2013-12-09T00:00:00GMT-0500

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A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

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...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW, SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR A TIME. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET DURING THE EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST... THEN CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY TRAVEL WILL DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES TEND TO ICE UP FIRST. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.

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Camden; Gloucester; Northwestern Burlington; Salem

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Corey

coreytowner@gmail.com

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2013-12-08T10:28:00GMT-0500
2013-12-08T14:00:00GMT-0500

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...A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN AREA OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR A WHILE RESULTING IN SNOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER AS SOME MILDER AIR ARRIVES ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET TOWARD EVENING, STARTING FIRST FROM PHILADELPHIA ON SOUTH AND EAST AND THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD. AS SOME MILDER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY IN THIS EVENING, SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN INLAND WITH TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN OCCURS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A COATING TO AN INCH. IF TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, BE PREPARED FOR DEVELOPING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES AND CHANGING VISIBILITIES. REMEMBER, BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES TEND TO BECOME SLIPPERY FIRST DURING WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

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Camden; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Somerset

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Corey

coreytowner@gmail.com

Sunday Night / Monday

It appears the area will have its first winter weather event of the season. While I am not expecting much accumulation, it does appear rather likely that we will have some frozen precipitation. We have a rather cold airmass overhead now, and will have a storm moving into the area from the south. The big question with these events are how fast the warmer air of the northerly moving storm can overcome the cold air in place. Typically, with these types of storms, you will see precipitation to the south, but it will crawl on a northern advancement. This is due to the evaporational cooling in the upper atmosphere. Our cold airmass will take some time to saturate before precipitation starts to fall to the ground. Precipitation will start in the form of snow and will change over to sleet and freezing rain and then all rain.

As of now, I think the snow starts in South Jersey late morning and then into the PHL - Trenton corridor in the early afternoon. Places in Northern NJ may have to wait until evening time for the precipitation to start falling. I expect a coating in areas of Southern NJ (away from the coast) and a coating to as much as 2" around C NJ. My other thinking with these types of storms is that a changeover usually occurs prior to the modeled time. So, a quicker changeover would lead to lesser accumulations, but travel could be just as bad if not worse. I think S NJ goes over to rain by late afternoon, CNJ by evening and Northern NJ overnight. Eventually, the rain will encompass all areas and will quickly wash away any accumulations.

After this storm, we turn our attention to another round of precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday. More to come on that after tomorrow.

Tonight / Sunday

While temperatures were fairly warm this morning, a cold front has pushed through. Temperatures have been steadily falling all day and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, precipitation is pushing into the area and may be around through early Saturday morning. The rain / snow line is currently around Mt. Pocono, PA and pushing SE. Will it make it down far enough to the area to perhaps see some frozen precipitation? We will have to watch and see how it moves over the next couple hours. I have a feeling we may see a bit. Areas in NW NJ will stand the best chances for a changeover. I am not expecting any accumulations down here.

Once this storm pushes out, all eyes will turn to Sunday. A lot of talk has been made about a significant ice storm. While this will be the case for C PA, C MD, WV, W VA, we will only start as frozen precipitation before turning over to a cold rain. How long the cold air stays in place before being nudged out will be the question. For now, I think we see a start of snow which will change over to sleet and freezing rain and then rain overnight. I do think we may be able to sneak an inch or two of snow out before the changeover. After that storm pushes out, we will be heading into a rather cold period. 

More to come throughout the night on the rain snow line and more thoughts on Sunday