Todays Update

Heavy snow has encompassed much of Central NJ. This is an impressive storm! I left the house at 630am and the temperature was 40 degrees. In about 2 hours time, the temp dropped to 33 degrees, heavy snow has moved in and there is a coating on the ground. These heavy snowfall rates will have to continue to keep the accumulated snow so far. The longer the heavy snow stays around, the better for accumulations on the pavement. It does appear that heavy snow will be the norm today. The storm has pushed to the coast where it will intensify. With intensification comes heavy snow bands, and winds. A bad combination for those that like power. As the storm intensifies, there is also a better than average shot of thundersnow across the area. Late morning through evening would be prime for this!

Heavy snow will continue and eventually tapper off this evening into the night. Updates as usual on twitter @townerswxpage and facebook Towner's Weather PAGE. Enjoy!

Warnings/Advisories Issued

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings (3-5" of
snow) for the pink areas. Areas north in the blue advisories are
issued (2-4") blue areas to the south are for lower amounts (1-3").

Monday/Tuesday Update (Sunday 3/24/13 morning)

The model runs last night really painted a great storm......if this was 2 months ago. 2 months ago, we would be talking about 8-12" of snow. But, since its the end of March, its a different story.  NAM, GFS, EURO, Canadian models all showing a decent hit.

It will snow tomorrow most of the day, and may even be heavy at times. The problem is, it will be very tough to get anything to accumulate. The higher sun angle and the radiational heating on the pavement will limit accumulation there. Surface temperatures tomorrow will also be in the mid to upper 30's which will make it tough to even accumulate on the grassy surfaces. Look for snow to start during the early morning hours, between 6-8am.

That being said, Central and Southern NJ will be in the prime area for snowfall and if we can obtain some extremely heavy bands, we may be able to pull off a couple inches. The potential is there, tomorrow is really going to be a nowcast situation to see where the heavy bands set up. 

More to come!

Monday/Tuesday Update

Before the model runs tonight come in, just wanted to drop a note and let everyone know todays trends keep a fairly decent storm across the area. In fact, it may be a rather snowy day Monday. The bad news, most of the heaviest precipitation will be falling during the day time. A March sun angle and borderline temperatures is not a good combination for accumulations. So, it will more than likely be snowing, but it will not be accumulating. Temperatures will be in the middle 30's. We are still 36+ hours to go, so start time and max precipitation time can still be worked out.

More updates to come on this tonight and tomorrow.

Monday-Tuesday Potential

This upcoming Monday into Tuesday has a fairly decent storm moving into the area. There are a number of variables going into this storm, and as of now, there is a fairly decent disagreement between models. A low pressure system is poised to move towards the Ohio River Valley and then transfer to a new low in the Atlantic. Where exactly this low forms, how fast it develops and the speed will all determine what kind, if any precipitation we get. 

The upper atmosphere has been cold, and there is a source for cold air. The NAM and Canadian models have rather robust outcomes while the GFS is a little weaker. The EURO has been showing this as a suppressed system but today at noon it too has brought it a little further north affecting the area. There is a fairly decent shot at a storm, and I will be following it. Best chances for accumulating snows would be at night. As of now, it looks like a Monday afternoon to early Tuesday morning event. 

More to come!

Spring In Time Only

the date says today is the first day of spring, but the thermometer says otherwise. In fact, we are arguably in the midst of the best pattern for snow we have been in all winter. Big time block, cold air supply (I'm all out of love) and a pattern very conducive to coastal storm development. Unfortunately, for those looking for a real thaw, it will be delayed probably into April. With that, we will actually also have some chances for snow.

Our chances start tonight with a chance of some snow showers late. Better chances remain closer to the shore, but inland areas may see some flakes fly. Then, models are showing a potential bigger storm for the area on the early part of next week. Guidance has been less than stellar so far, but the chances are there and I will be following it. More to come on this!

Another Surprise Today?

Not as likely, but temperatures are around 30 degrees. Temperatures that low, combined with a dew point in the mid teens will allow todays precipitation to start out as snow. Gradually, it will changeover to a mix and rain. A large majority of the precipitation for us in Central NJ will be rain. For areas north and west, it will be a different story. Snow and ice will rule the day and night. Areas in the Poconos, NW NJ and into NY and CT have a real mess on their hands. Areas even further north into Upstate NY and Northern New England can see up to a foot of snow! Not bad for late March.

Current Warnings (Pink)
Current Advisories (Blue)

Snow To Start?

Precipitation is moving in from the west with a large area of snow for northern areas. Even down into central NJ, this may start out as snow, and may last for a little bit until warmer air works in. Temperatures are in the upper 30's now, but dewpoints are in the lower 20's. As precipitation moves in, the dewpoint will rise and the temperatures will lower until they meet. This is known as evaporational cooling. I still do not feel any accumulations will take place across central NJ, but northern areas it may be a different story.

RADAR WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE (CLICK LINK)

Wet Weekend

What was once a potential for a snowy storm coming up, has gone to the wayside of some rain moving into the area. Over the next three days, expect rain and some snow to mix in from time to time. There will be no accumulations in our area, just dont be surprised to see some snow mixing in from time to time. It will be pretty raw and have that winter feel.

Winter Return?

While the past two days have been nice, and today's temperatures expected to get into the 60's, the last thing you want me to tell you is we have another coastal storm threat. The EURO model has been advertising another coastal threat for the 17th-20th, potentially stronger for coastal areas. This setup would actually lend some credence to a snowier outlook for the area as well. I will continue to monitor it.

Over performing inverted trough

The storm that battered the coast is now providing another surprise. The disturbance I talked about yesterday coming out of the Great Lakes Has actually brought the coastal storm back towards the coast. As a result snow spread through the areas last night and it's continued on today. The radar still looking good for a couple hours more of snow. The National Weather Service has extended further south winter weather advisories for 3 to 6 inches of snow. Reports from Monmouth County New Jersey already show around 5 inches of snow. I would not be surprised to possibly see a winter pstorm warning issued for those areas

Inverted Trough Event 3/7/13 Morning Update

Well, yesterday was a prime example of what can happen when you are off on a couple variables needed for snow. The upper atmosphere was very conducive to snow, but an east wind kept surface temperatures above freezing, and kept the precipitation mainly rain with embedded snow/ice. A day of temperatures around 40 degrees kept the ground warm where even when it switched to snow last night, it was too warm to stick. Can this winter be over already?

There is a disturbance moving through the Great Lakes now that will act to cause an inverted trough from last nights storm. The disturbance will cause the trough from yesterday's storm to become inverted and act to pull back moisture from yesterday's storm. Precip is breaking out already in New England and coastal sections of NJ. This will continue to build through the day. I will monitor the situation and keep you posted. There can be some accumulations throughout the area, especially in New England and Eastern NY.

3/6/2013 Morning Update

Areas down and around Western Virginia, West Virginia and Western Maryland are getting pounced with snow. 17" already reported in West Virginia. Thundersnow has also been reported in Western Virginia. It is snowing as far south as Richmond. As for us, precipitation has made it into the area as very light rain showers moving in via bands off the ocean. The easterly winds are really putting a hamper on surface temperatures. As the low moves east and northeast, we will gradually see our winds move to a more northerly direction which will allow the rain later to change to snows. I am still not too gung ho as others on accumulations. I am still holding with a coating - 2".

For the remainder of today. Look for more widespread and steady rain to move in. As the low moves from the VA area, our winds will shift, so when this happens is when we will see the rain / snow line move west to east. Overnight, it should be snow and it may accumulate, but again, it will more than likely be confined to grassy surfaces.

More to come,

For breaking info, pictures and observations of the storm, follow me on twitter @townerswxpage and on facebook at  Towner's Weather PAGE

Here is a looping radar which is pretty neat of the storm so far:

Neat Radar Loop Of Storm (CLICK LINK)

NJ Winter Storm Watches Issued

For Burlington and Ocean Counties south in NJ. With a threshold of 4" for a warning, the NWS Mt Holly - Philly has issued a watch. Areas further north, the threshold is 6" In any case, the NWS has issued the watches. This means conditions are favorable. If it becomes imminent, a warning will be issued. Warnings are in effect for DC/Baltimore/Central PA areas currently.

Personally, I still feel getting two inches will be tough. I am still looking for a coating to 2" of sloppy snow that wont really accumulate until nighttime, or heaver bands. In nay case, I wanted to pass along the watches

Link to MT Holly point and click forecasts. (CLICK LINK)

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

NJZ017>020-022-025>027-PAZ071-104-106-060430-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WS.A.0004.130306T2100Z-130307T1100Z/
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...HAMMONTON...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...PHILADELPHIA...
NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
327 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...PHILADELPHIA AND ITS
  NEARBY PENNSYLVANIA SUBURBS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BEGIN BETWEEN BEFORE
  DAWN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL
  MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY...BEFORE
  CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW TOWARD EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
  FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS WILL ASSIST MELTING ON
  TREATED SURFACES. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
  LIKELY THROUGHOUT THIS AREA DURING AND GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD
  ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...EXPECT TRAVEL TO GET MORE DIFFICULT AS THE WEDNESDAY
  EVENING COMMUTE PROCEEDS. THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT ENOUGH WET
  SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON LIMBS AND WIRES AND COUPLED WITH THE
  WIND TO CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. BE PREPARED FOR
  POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. HIGHEST
  GUSTS NEAR THE NEW JERSEY COAST.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO HALF A MILE MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

March 6th and 7th 3/5/13 morning update

While the models all bring a decent amount of precipitation to the area, there will be a vast number of conditions experienced over the area. A few days ago, we were strictly talking about possible precipitation making it into the very southern part of NJ. Now, there is a lot of potential of serious talks about a mid atlantic and northeast snowstorm. While I dont think this will be an all out snowstorm from DC to Boston, I do think there will be areas where significant snow will fall. First and foremost, the biggest part of this storm will be the effects at the shore. High Winds, rain and high seas will cause more beach erosion and flooding. Please prepare for what you can if you have interests down there.

For our area, I am still up in the air. I think areas to our south, especially the western DC burbs, Western Virginia and West Virginia are going to get a good dumping. 12" can be expected there. I also think an area of 5-9" makes it along the DC-Baltimore corridor. Then, I can also see some heavier accumulations up into the New England area after the storm moves through our area. The areas in between, specifically the Philly to NYC to New Haven, CT corridor this is the iffy part. As the storm moves to the coast, the DC/Baltimore crew will reap the benefits of the snow. As it moves to the coast, it will undergo a change and unfortunately this will be the time it is over our area. The storm will not be "bombing out" and we will have easterly winds. When a storm hits the coast and "bombs out" we can sometimes see them draw in their own cold air, creating a really unstable atmosphere (i.e. the thundersnow we received a couple years ago) and change the precipitation to snow. This time, it will not be bombing out as much, the east winds will bring warmer air in from over the ocean and keep surface temps above freezing. Surface temperatures will not fall below freezing and will remain in the mid 30's. A majority of this precipitation will be falling during the daytime hours as well. This will lead to very minimal stickage on paved surfaces. Once the low can move and our winds switch to a more northerly direction, we can see some stickage, but at the point, I would be concerned with how much snow is left.

As of now, precipitation moves in around 7am. It will more than likely be a very wet snow that will have a tough time accumulating. As the day goes on, it may transition from rain to snow and back based upon  heavier bands. As the day goes on, it may be sloppy out and it will feel pretty raw. Once the sun sets, we may be able to pull out an inch or two of accumulation. More to come as this still is only a few pieces away from this being a bigger storm for the area. This is where I stand on this day, a snowy and raw day with little accumulation.

March 6th and 7th Update 3/4/13 Afternoon

I talked about model chicken going on earlier, and it appears a consensus is growing. While there is still a long road to go until the final outcome, indications today are the mighty EURO is caving and moving towards the GFS. Major models, excluding the Canadian, moved north today. NAM and GFS both are big hits for DC-Boston. Euro has moved further north and is on NYC's doorstep. The Euro now puts appreciable precipitation into the Central and Southern NJ area. The 20 million dollar question now becomes temperatures. We look to have appreciable precipitation moving in, but our temperatures are going to be MARGINAL at best for snow. In fact  the low pressure tracking to our south will bring an easterly wind to our area and bring air in off the ocean which is above freezing. Easterly winds and snow do not mix. Precipitation is also going to be coming in during the daytime hours and the sun angle is higher in March which will have a profound effect on accumulations on pavement. The caveat is that this could be a prolonged event and precipitation will last through the night (as modeled now). When the sun sets, if we can get temperatures cold enough for snow, we could see accumulations then.

Coastal areas are going to get hit again. I hate saying this, but an inch of water, winds 40-50mph and high seas are going to really hurt and hamper recovery efforts. There is little doubt that the shore areas will be hit hard regardless of what happens inland. Please make preparations down da shore if you own property down there.

Still a long way to go here, and a lot can happen. I am going to remain a little more conservative here until there is more compelling evidence one way or the other. I am increasingly more interested in this storm though because regardless, it has been a wild two days from nothing to a moderate to major threat for the area.

Anyways, here are some pics with the representation of events from the different models. (NOT FORECASTS, JUST SINGLE MODEL RUNS)

GFS Evening:

Surface low pressure:

Snowfall:

NAM Evening snowfall:

EURO Midday Snowfall:

March 6th and 7th Update 3/4/13 Midday

Both the American models (NAM and GFS) show a further north track for the strom. The NAM gets sizable precip to about Interstate 195 in NJ while the GFS has sizable precipitation from DC to Boston. The Euro model last night kept a far more southern track, with very minimal precipitation making it into the area. This Euro track resembles the UKMET and Canadian models as well (keeping the southern track).

What we have here is a game of model chicken, just waiting to see who flinches first. I am still riding the Euro train and expect the storm to remain south of our area. Still, all options are on the table. More to come!

March 6th-7th 3/3/13 Update

Models continue to hold the bulk of the precipitation to the south of us. Western Virginia and West Virginia look to get pummeled. This will work its way into the suburbs of DC. There is still a lot of uncertainty for our area, so it still has my interest. Places out even in the mid west still have a lot of uncertainty which only adds to my curiosity with this storm. Euro keeping the storm down south of us, while the GFS has been incrementally bringing it further north each run. Other models show a storm as well, but most are again south of our area.

One thing is for sure, our shore areas look once again to receive another round of battering. High tides, flooding and big waves will all batter our recovering shoreline.  More to come with this storm threat.

National Weather Service Mt. Holly has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the upcoming threat.

Mt Holly Hazardous Weather Outlook (Click Link)

March 6-7th update 3/2/13

The Euro and the GFS models over the past day have moved back down to a mainly southern MidAtlantic state storm. Really, little precipitation makes it further north than Delaware. More to come in the days ahead on this.

March 6 & 7 update 3/1/13

EURO and GFS still are showing a potential Mid Atlantic storm for the middle of next week. While over the past couple days, both have been showing a more Southern track. Yesterday's Euro actually started working further and further north and last nights overnight run brought it up enough for it to affect us. The GFS has been doing the same thing, although maybe even more dramatic. It was the model showing the furthest south track and actually just had to going out to sea and not affecting us. Over the past day the march north has started. Today's midday run shows a real good smacking for all of our area. There is still a great deal to iron out, and the shifts and changes over the past 24 hours shows nothing is set in stone. Still a long way to go, but odds are better than not that a significant storm will affect a part of the Eastern seaboard. More to come!