Winter Weather Advisory

Precipitation for tomorrow's rain event may start out as some sleet/freezing rain/snow over the region before changing to all rain tomorrow. Possibly some slick spots over the area

Winter Weather Advisory (New Jersey)
Dec 08, at 21:16 EST
Dec 09, at 07:00 EST

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A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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...A NOR`EASTER TO BRING SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND MUCH OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW THIS EVENING. AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY...

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION AS WELL AS ICE ACCUMULATION MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

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Hunterdon; Mercer; Morris; Somerset

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Sent from my iPhone

Wednesday Storm 11/24/2014 Midday Update

All major models are showing an impact from an approaching storm on Wednesday just in time for one of the busiest travel days in the US. Travel will be impacted throughout the DC-BOS corridor in one way or another. With highs reaching into the 60's today, a winter storm will be the last thing people will be thinking about.

Rain has pushed through the area today and in its wake, we will have very mild and windy conditions. A cold front will push through on Tuesday setting the stage for a storm on Wednesday. While the details are still far from being concluded, it is fairly certain that travel in and around the I95 corridor will be impacted during the day and evening on Wednesday.

First thing is first......here is the latest from the NWS:

Winter Storm Watches issued for NW NJ (Blue Areas)

And, then we have the latest thinking from the NWS as far as accumulations:

I think areas in Eastern PA, back through Lancaster, Reading, Poconos and into NW will be all snow. I would not be surprised to see amounts 6-10" in those areas.......6 further south (Lancaster and 10 further north into NW Jersey). Areas further to the south, E PA, through NW Mercer Counties up through Hunterdon County, I think a start as some frozen mix over to snow with amounts around 3-6"/4-8". Areas in Philly- C NJ I am thinking start out as rain/frozen mix, over to a mix and then over to snow as the day progresses. Total snowfall here 1-3"/2-4" type event.

Thats my thinking as of now, as always, I will be updating frequently.

Roller Coaster Ride Over The Next Week

I have a couple minutes and wanted to relay some info for the next week, through Thanksgiving.

We have just been through some pretty good cold weather. This is a good primer for the upcoming winter. While the cold air will be moving out of the region beginning tomorrow, the week ahead looks to be filled with a number of changes, some good, some bad....depending on your point of view.

Cold air moves out beginning tomorrow. We go to seasonable temperatures on Sunday and then above average for Monday. We could actually be looking at 65-70 degrees for the highs on Monday (which would be a great day to take care of hanging the Christmas lights).

On  Tuesday, another cold front will be approaching the area and will bring the return to colder temperatures. In addition, there will be two potential low pressure systems that I will be watching. Both, as of now, look to be near misses, but the fun of tracking is back!

Right now, there is little agreement with the models about the storms, but as the week goes on and the time gets closer, I think we will begin to see them come around into better agreement.

National Weather Service Mt Holly Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-140300-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...
FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
306 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN, BEFORE MIXING
WITH SNOW, THEN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES
IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

$$

ROBERTSON

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Mercer Co

Severe Thunderstorm Warning (New Jersey)
Sep 06, at 16:03 EDT
Sep 06, at 17:00 EDT

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WINDS OF MORE THAN 57 MPH...OR HAIL ONE INCH OR LARGER. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT * AT 401 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM ROBERTSVILLE TO CLEARBROOK PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

MORGANVILLE AND MATAWAN AROUND 410 PM EDT...

YORKETOWN AND MANALAPAN AROUND 415 PM EDT...

HOLMDEL AND KEANSBURG AROUND 420 PM EDT...

LINCROFT AND MIDDLETOWN AROUND 425 PM EDT...

WEST FREEHOLD AROUND 430 PM EDT...

RED BANK AND EAST FREEHOLD AROUND 435 PM EDT...

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Mercer; Middlesex; Monmouth

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Corey

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (New Jersey)
Sep 06, at 14:10 EDT
Sep 06, at 21:00 EDT

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN

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Atlantic; Burlington; Camden; Cape May; Cumberland; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Monmouth; Morris; Ocean; Salem; Somerset; Sussex; Warren

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Corey

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Burlington, NJ: Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 9/2/2014 20:45 EDT

NJC005-007-030045-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0155.140903T0007Z-140903T0045Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
807 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
* UNTIL 845 PM EDT
* AT 806 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR MERCHANTVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GREENTREE AROUND 815 PM EDT...
MOUNT LAUREL AND MARLTON AROUND 820 PM EDT...
WILLINGBORO AROUND 825 PM EDT...
LUMBERTON AND MEDFORD AROUND 830 PM EDT...
MOUNT HOLLY AND JACKSONVILLE AROUND 835 PM EDT...
PEMBERTON AND JOBSTOWN AROUND 840 PM EDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WHICH
COULD FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS QUICKLY AND COVER ROADS WITH WATER. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
LAT...LON 3992 7448 3988 7514 3990 7514 3995 7514
3998 7508 4001 7505 4002 7502 4004 7499
4015 7464 4014 7462 4014 7459 3994 7447
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 259DEG 30KT 3995 7507

Strong Storms Possible

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
Sep 02, at 19:38 EDT
Sep 02, at 21:00 EDT

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...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...EASTERN DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...PHILADELPHIA...

SALEM...SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN MERCER AND SOUTHWESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW CASTLE COUNTY DELAWARE. THIS AREA WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC...BUCKS...

BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...MERCER...

MONMOUTH...MONTGOMERY...PHILADELPHIA AND SALEM COUNTIES BY 900 PM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

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Atlantic; Camden; Gloucester; Mercer; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth

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Corey

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Radar beginning to light up over the area

KDIX - SuperRes Reflectivity Tilt 1 23:31

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (C NJ)

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (New Jersey)
2014-07-13T19:50:00GMT-0400
2014-07-13T23:00:00GMT-0400

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLINGTON CAMDEN CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MORRIS SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN

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Burlington; Camden; Cumberland; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Morris; Salem; Somerset; Sussex; Warren

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Corey

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning (New Jersey)
2014-07-08T16:12:00GMT-0400
2014-07-08T17:00:00GMT-0400

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THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT * AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR DOYLESTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

LUMBERVILLE AND BYRAM AROUND 420 PM EDT...

NEW HOPE AND STOCKTON AROUND 425 PM EDT...

WASHINGTON CROSSING AROUND 430 PM EDT...

SERGEANTSVILLE AND SAND BROOK AROUND 435 PM EDT...

PENNINGTON AROUND 440 PM EDT...

HOPEWELL AROUND 450 PM EDT...

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Hunterdon; Mercer

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Corey

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Special Weather Statement- Thunderstorms Possible This Evening

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-07-08T12:47:00GMT-0400
2014-07-08T15:00:00GMT-0400

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...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM AND CROSS THE DELAWARE RIVER BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM...

TODAY`S HEAT INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S. THIS HEAT WILL PRECEDE A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RACING EASTWARD FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SCATTERED STORMS PRODUCING POCKETS OF DAMAGING WIND IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM. THE REMAINS OF A PROBABLE DYING SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR OF WILMINGTON...PHILADELPHIA...TRENTON AND NEW BRUNSWICK BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM. PLEASE MONITOR ANY FUTURE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HAVE A SAFETY PLAN IN MIND SHOULD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN YOUR AREA.

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Camden; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Morris; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Somerset; Sussex; Warren

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Corey

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-07-02T19:26:00GMT-0400
2014-07-02T20:30:00GMT-0400

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...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PHILADELPHIA...

NORTHERN BURLINGTON...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...SOUTH CENTRAL MERCER AND SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS COUNTIES...

AT 725 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PALMYRA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR RIVERSIDE AROUND 740 PM...BURLINGTON AROUND 750 PM...FLORENCE AROUND 800 PM...FIELDSBORO AROUND 810 PM AND CROSSWICKS AROUND 820 PM.

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Camden; Mercer; Northwestern Burlington

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Corey

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning Mercer Co

Severe Thunderstorm Warning (New Jersey)
2014-05-22T16:22:00GMT-0400
2014-05-22T17:00:00GMT-0400

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VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS QUICKLY AND COVER ROADS WITH WATER. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHEN THUNDER ROARS...MOVE INDOORS! REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT * AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM OTTSVILLE TO PERKASIE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

DUBLIN AROUND 430 PM EDT...

LUMBERVILLE AND ROBESONIA AROUND 435 PM EDT...

DOYLESTOWN AROUND 440 PM EDT...

NEW HOPE AROUND 445 PM EDT...

WASHINGTON CROSSING AND IVYLAND AROUND 455 PM EDT...

RICHBORO AND NEWTOWN AROUND 500 PM EDT...

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Mercer

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Corey

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (New Jersey)
2014-05-22T12:40:00GMT-0400
2014-05-22T20:00:00GMT-0400

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN EASTERN UNION ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MORRIS PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN

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Bergen; Eastern Union; Essex; Hudson; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Morris; Passaic; Somerset; Sussex; Warren

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Corey

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Flood Warning Issued

Flood Warning (New Jersey)
2014-04-30T14:02:00GMT-0400
2014-03-31T20:00:00GMT-0400

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DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...

WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT * AT 200 PM EDT...RAINFALL, IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES, HAD FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF HIGHWAYS, STREETS, AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE THEIR BANKS. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

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Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Morris; Somerset; Sussex; Warren

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Corey

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning (New Jersey)
2014-04-15T15:56:00GMT-0400
2014-04-15T16:30:00GMT-0400

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THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTAIN LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT TO HEAR THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

SOUTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT * AT 346 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR YEADON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

PHILADELPHIA AROUND 400 PM EDT...

WISSINOMING AND TACONY AROUND 405 PM EDT...

NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AND ANDALUSIA AROUND 410 PM EDT...

BENSALEM AND FEASTERVILLE AROUND 415 PM EDT...

LANGHORN AND BRISTOL AROUND 420 PM EDT...

LEVITTOWN AND WOODSIDE AROUND 425 PM EDT...

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Burlington; Camden; Mercer

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Corey

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SWS For A Period Of Light Snow During AM Rush

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-02-25T22:25:00GMT-0500
2014-02-26T09:00:00GMT-0500

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...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...

WE ARE EXPECTING A LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE NON-ADVISORY AREAS AND COULD GREATLY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE AS THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO STICK INSTANTLY TO ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. THE SNOW SHOULD END RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW MORNING. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING TOMORROW MORNING, BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. BE SURE TO LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU.

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Camden; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Morris; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington; Sussex; Warren; Western Monmouth

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Tornado Watch Issued For Most Of NJ

Tornado Watch (New Jersey)
2014-02-21T12:40:00GMT-0500
2014-02-21T17:00:00GMT-0500

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TORNADO WATCH 26 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET

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Atlantic; Burlington; Camden; Cape May; Cumberland; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Monmouth; Ocean; Salem; Somerset

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Mercer County, NJ Freezing Rain Advisory

Freezing Rain Advisory (New Jersey)
2014-02-18T14:52:00GMT-0500
2014-02-19T10:00:00GMT-0500

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A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...WEST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA NORTHWEST SUBURBS. * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. * TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ARRIVING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AN OVERLAP PERIOD WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING AS THE RAIN IS FALLING MAKING IT FREEZE ON CONTACT. THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND END BY LATE MORNING. * IMPACTS...ANY UNTREATED ROADWAYS OR ROADWAYS IN WHICH THE SALT HAS RUN OFF TODAY WILL BE SLIPPERY AND HAZARDOUS. UNTREATED WALKWAYS WILL ALSO BE SLIPPERY AND HAZARDOUS. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHEN THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND RISING INTO THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

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Hunterdon; Mercer; Somerset

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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED.....C NJ

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-180700-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN
DELMARVA THROUGH THE LOCAL PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA FOR
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY A TRACE.

* TIMING...THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
  TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. A CHANGE TO
  FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
  LESSENS LATER IN THE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY DURING
  THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING
  COMMUTE AND IMPACT BOTH TRAVELING AND PLOWING.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING, RISING ABOVE
  FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. EXPECT LONGER COMMUTING TIMES. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Wednesday Afternoon Update)

First and foremost, our storm is really taking a toll in the Southeastern US. Snows and ice are really hitting an area hard that is not normally accustomed to this. I can only hope everyone down there follows their forecasts and have plans done accordingly.

For our area up here, we are about 10 hours away from the start of our storm. As you can see, we are dealing with a very large storm. We can see a direct influence from the Gulf Of Mexico feeding directly into our low pressure. This will be a very intense and large storm. This will also probably be our longest duration event for the year.

My going thinking has been 4-8" for the area and then a switch over to a mix and possibly rain. I do think we switch back to snow as the CCB (Cold Conveyor Belt) swings through the area. The CCB is the back end of the "comma" head of the storm. As the storm pushes through, this will swing over the area. How much additional will that add? Well, like everything else with this storm, it depends.

I will say, the models have been all over the place with this very large and complex storm. My 4-8" is my best guess trying to make sense and from experience with these types of storms from prior years. Growing up in NJ, most of the large intense storms bring a period of a transition to a mix or rain. As the storm moves east of the area, we go back to snow till the end of the storm. While the model guidance has been less than stellar, I do hold out hope for the short range models, the HRRR and the RUC models which will be in their range later on tonight.

While my call is 4-8" with a transition, the confidence of that is low to medium. I think we are going to see some very impressive snowfall rates through the area. We have a storm that is going to dump between 1-2" of precipitation. The question is going to be figuring out, how much of that is snow, mix, rain. If it were all snow, we would be looking at 12"+ easily. Now, how fast do we transition? Do we transition? does it stay as sleet? freezing rain? rain? Do we go back to snow? What kind of precipitation rates do we have? These questions will all be answered starting in 10 hours. Until then, I am going with the 4-8" as my conservative estimate, with a strong feeling that the totals may end up higher than that.

So, while those are the accumulation questions, there will be other questions that will also need to be answered. I said that we are dealing with a very large and dynamic storm. Even if warm air moves in, and the surface temps get above freezing, if we have a period of very heavy precipitation, we can remain snow if the upper atmosphere is still below freezing. This will all have to be tracked as well with the storm. Obviously, if the rates are not that impressive, or the upper atmosphere and surface are above freezing, we will have rain. Speaking of dynamic......I fully expect there to be a good number of reports of thundersnow tomorrow. Maybe even as early as the early morning hours.

So, the specifics.

Snow moves in around midnight to 2am. It will snow very heavily in the early morning hours, with the possibility of thundersnow. Accumulations by the time we wake up will be 3-6". I expect to pick up another inch or two and then a transition to a mix will occur as the storm moves closer and some warmer air floods the upper atmosphere. I do think though we will remain sleet for a while. During the afternoon, precipitation may actually stop or become very drizzly. To the evening hours, I expect the CCB to intensify and move through dropping more intense snowfall before ending towards midnight. Exactly how much will depend on how the low pressure bombs out, and how much moisture can be thrown back over the area.

Anyways, those are my thoughts and concerns as of now. As always, I will be posting on facebook and twitter throughout the day and night.

Stay Safe!

Winter Storm Warnings Issued in NJ 195 South, Watches Issued North

Warnings (PINK) Watches (BLUE)

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...POTENT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-120500-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.140213T0000Z-140214T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0006.140213T0300Z-140214T0600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THIS WARNING INCLUDES FAR SOUTHEASTERN
  PENNSYLVANIA... INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA...
  FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY... FAR NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...AND
  NORTHERN DELAWARE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO
  8 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WITH 8 TO 10 INCHES
  POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS MOSTLY SNOW WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH SLEET BY THURSDAY
  MORNING AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
  ALL SNOW AGAIN AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACROSS THE
  REGION ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO TRAVEL IMPACTS...
  WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
  ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES IF HEAVY SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS ON POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS BY THE TIME WINDS
  INCREASE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...POTENT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-120500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0007.140213T0600Z-140214T1100Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...THIS WATCH INCLUDES NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND THE
  POCONOS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...PRIMARILY HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALTHOUGH
  10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
  POCONOS.

* TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS ALL SNOW AFTER
  MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET
  DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER
  MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACROSS THE
  REGION ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO TRAVEL IMPACTS...
  WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
  ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES IF HEAVY SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS ON POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS BY THE TIME WINDS
  INCREASE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

JOHNSON

Wednesday / Thursday Storm (Tuesday AM Update)

Overnight model runs have concluded and now I am looking forward towards today noon model runs. Last night, I explained on facebook where we were before the model runs. Overnight, the NAM was less amped, the GFS moved a bit west (but overall had a much better organization). The EURO was pretty steadfast on its track showing a front end thump of snow and then a transition to a mix and possibly rain. Today the models continued down the same roads and the NAM, GFS and Canadian models all bring in a period of sleet/mix/rain to CNJ.

With that, it has become more and more clear that our area will see some transition over to sleet/mix/rain etc. The projected track (on any of the models) will make it very difficult for us to remain all snow. Areas NW of 95 should do really well and will cash in with widespread areas of 12"+. Those areas would be places like Reading, the Lehigh Valley, NE PA and possibly NW NJ. I think areas down in CNJ are looking at a nice front end thump of snow 4-8" (possibly more) and then a transition over to sleet/mix and then possibly rain. There could also be a change back to all snow on the tail end. Coastal areas, there is a full moon expected as well Thursday, and with a developing low pressure coming up the coast, spells disaster for coastal flooding. 

In any case, a shift in the models by 50 miles east could make quite a difference. Same with a shift 50 miles west. With that, those are my general ideas. There will be more updates to come. We are still 36 hours away so there is some time for some wiggles. If you know anyone down in the NE Georgia, Central SC and NC areas, they will be receiving an epic ice storm. Make sure those down there are prepared and follow their latest forecasts down there. We still have people up this way without power from our storm last Wednesday. Also, areas not accustomed to snow could be in for some surprises as well (South Central VA, W NC etc). Also, DC looks to actually be in a pretty decent spot up our way for a pretty decent storm as well. 

More to come

A Look Ahead Into Wednesday / Thursday

With this clipper over for today, the next focus will be on a developing storm for the Wednesday - Thursday timeframe. The Canadian and EURO models have been hinting at a low pressure tracking from the SE coast, up to the Outer Banks and then east of Jersey to the "benchmark" (or just inside). The benchmark is a noted area, 40N 70W, where most of our significant snowstorms move through especially for New England). Also, this looks to be a much slower moving storm than we have had this year and will also effect a larger area.

The GFS has come around to the idea and has the storm, but has it further into the ocean and only scraping the East Coast. Tonight, the NAM also shows the storm, although we are at hour 84 on the 84 hour model (not the greatest at this range) but I am encouraged to see it there, and very amped up. There will obviously be some questions with track, intensity and so forth with this storm, but this is definitely one that has my attention. This will effect a large area, from the Gulf States to the Southeast to the Mid Atlantic through New England.

So, time to watch the continuity from run to run and see further cohesion in coming up with a track. There will be many updates coming, so please follow along on twitter and facebook!

NOAA SWS

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-02-09T15:53:00GMT-0500
2014-02-09T18:00:00GMT-0500

---

...SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION...

SNOW IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE. THE SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST OVER THE REST OF NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND THE NORTHERN EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND BY 6 PM. THE SNOWFALL RATE MAY BE MODERATE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH RAIN NEAR THE COAST. SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING, BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. BE SURE TO LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM EST THIS EVENING.

---

Atlantic; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Camden; Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth

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Winter Storm Warnings Hoisted

This is for NW Burlington County. Most other areas in the state are under warnings and advisories as well. North, more snow. 

Winter Storm Warning (New Jersey)
2014-02-04T03:45:00GMT-0500
2014-02-05T09:00:00GMT-0500

---

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

---

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM WITH SNOW AND ICE WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOME SNOW AND SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * HAZARD TYPES...SOME SNOW AND SLEET, THEN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT, THEN MIX WITH SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN TOWARD MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW OR SLUSH COVERED ROADS, REDUCED VISIBILITY AND THEN ICING LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ICE ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THE SNOW COULD BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES, RESULTING IN SOME POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

---

Camden; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Salem

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February 5th Event (Monday PM Update)

As we wind down from our storm today, we can now turn out attention to the upcoming threat on Wednesday. Last week I made a post about a very active pattern unfolding over the area, and that seems to be the case. Yes, we have a lot of threats, and yes, we have some shots at snow. I will however, take it one storm at a time. I spoke of the change in any variable from a previous storm having an impact on storms following. Case in point, the next storm up, Wednesday.

Two days ago, this was looking like a washout. Now, with some fresh snowcover down, there is talk of a couple inches of snow and then a switch over to a mix and then to rain. Places now in NW NJ and NE PA could get a whole lot of snow and never transition over now. So, I am going to be curious to see how the models interpret this tonight and tomorrow. I have a sneaking suspicion that we could be in for a ice event, especially from Trenton north. 

As of now, Snow moves in late tomorrow night and will accumulate. Precipitation will transition over to a mix from south to north. It will make it to about rt 80 where north of there is out best bet to remain all snow. In addition, the mix will also change over to rain from south to north, and how far up that goes will be the question. This will be another quick moving storm, and will probably be out of here again by the late afternoon Wednesday. More to come on this storm. 

Monday 2/3/14 Storm (Sunday AM thoughts)

First, Phil saw his shadow this morning at Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, PA. As the legend goes, this means 6 more weeks of winter. As reality goes, Phil is batting about 39% which bodes well for those that want this winter over.

On to more important things, we have a storm heading our way which will move in during the overnight hours. With temperatures today approaching 50 degrees, we will be relying on a cold front that will be pushing through and dropping temperatures. How fast this can get through the area and how fast temperatures can fall will be determining factors on how much total accumulation we will have. The fact that the storm pushes in during the early morning hours will help the snow cause.

As of now, I think precipitation moves in between 5am and 7am across the C NJ area. Precipitation may start out as a mix but I think it will quickly transition over to snow. The problem we will have is the upper atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow, but the surface may not be. So, until the surface cools enough to support snow, we will be looking at a mix. In addition, once the heavier precipitation moves in, that too will help to keep the column cool enough to support all snow.

As of now, I do think another substantial storm is bearing down on the area. There is two different ways I am looking at this storm. As I am thinking now, with a period of mixing to start, I generally like 3-6" from Philly through Trenton to New Brunswick with 2-4" to the north of there. If the cold front can push in and our temperatures crash a little faster, 4-8" from Philly to Trenton to New Brunswick can be expected. I still think north of there for NNJ, NE PA and NYC will see 2-4"/3-5"

Other areas- NE MD - N DE 2-4" if mixing to start 3-6" if all snow
                    DC - Baltimore, S DE 1-3" but there will be serious mixing concerns.

Winter Storm Watches In Effect- Burlington / Ocean Counties To The Southwest

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
718 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-020930-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.140203T1100Z-140203T2100Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
718 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF MARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST
  PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
  JERSEY INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON DELAWARE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH A SMALL
  CHANCE OF A TRACE OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION FROM
  RAIN TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION BEGINS PROBABLY AS RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE
  DAWN MONDAY AND THEN CHANGES TO SNOW BETWEEN 6 AM AND 10 AM
  MONDAY. THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY SOMETIME BETWEEN MID MORNING
  AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL PROBABLY HOVER WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
  31 DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

* VISIBILITIES...POSSIBLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ON ALL UNTREATED
  PAVEMENTS...EVEN IF THERE IS SOME MELTING AT TIMES. THERE IS
  UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BUT IF AMOUNTS
  END UP NEAR 5 OR 6 INCHES...THIS WOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
  DIFFICULTIES FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
  AFTERNOON MONDAY.

* MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER
  20S WITH SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FREEZING ON
  MANY PAVEMENTS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

The Week Ahead

So, I have gotten a couple questions on the rumors of a big snow storm for the weekend. The rumor was for 40"+ for NJ and we were going to get "epic" snows etc. Lets put this to bed now. It is not going to happen. First off, the map that everyone was looking at was a low resolution European model, that I have not even heard about until I saw the same graphic many of you did. In addition, it was a cumulative snowfall forecast from 3 days ago through Feb 12th. So, it would not be one storm, but over that period. While I am a firm believer on early warning and giving the heads up to people on impending storms, there is a time for tempered posts. If you are looking at one model run for a storm that is 11 days away, wouldn't you want to see some consistency with the model runs, and consistency with other models? None of those features happened and one run of the model ran like wildfire through social media. To me, its more important to to be right than hype. A storm 11 days away that does not have run to run consistency or other model support is pure hype. Its putting the goggles on for what YOU want to see. In any case, I am off this topic. 

We are transitioning now from a deep cold in which we were in the midst of the arctic trough. The trough will be relaxing back north and we are going to be heading into a more split flow across the area. This active pattern will lead the way on a number of storm chances coming up this week. The problem with this setup though will be the storm tracks and cold air. While our chances increase for storms, so does the volatility of the forecast. We are back into the challenging storm track, rain/snow line, mix precipitation etc. And, with the number of storms that will be present, long range forecasting will be challenged because everything will be based upon the setup from the previous storm. In other words, if a variable changes with storm 1, storm 2 will change on the models, along with storm 3 etc, etc. The best approach will be to take it one storm at a time. 

As of now, Saturday and Sunday both like nice, with temperatures well above freezing. Our next storm will impact the area on Monday, but the spread of solutions is still really wild. The GFS model keeps all precipitation to the south, will the NAM brushes S NJ, the Canadian is a bit further north and gives the area a period of light to moderate snow and the EURO is the furthest north and brings rain into the equation from about Philly East and route 78 south. So, my approach over the next week will be to take storms one at a time. The period looks active, but storms will be changing every run on the models. Stay tuned as I will be posting updates as needed!

Special Weather Statement For Snow Tonight

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-01-28T15:16:00GMT-0500
2014-01-28T17:15:00GMT-0500

---

...A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND FALL AT ITS GREATEST INTENSITY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL END BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO ONE INCH, WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE IN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 95 IN DELMARVA. THE REGION IS GOING TO BE CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. THE SNOW WILL STICK INSTANTLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND MAKE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. IF DRIVING OVERNIGHT, GIVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. ALSO GIVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE DRIVING EARLY.

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Camden; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Somerset; Western Monmouth

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Corey

coreytowner@gmail.com

Wind Chill Advisory For The Area Today - Bundle Up!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ060>062-
070-071-101>106-221600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140122T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
328 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.
LIMIT YOUR TIME OUT OF DOORS. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD AND
WIND COULD RESULT IN FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

$$

IOVINO

Tuesday / Wednesday Storm (Monday Afternoon Update)

I am actually quite impressed with this storm, and we are still 18 hours from go time. Models have been very consistent with this storm, so confidence is pretty high with this one. One thing that has been showing up on the models once again today is the effects of the banding that will setup. To illustrate that, here are two models depicting banding. Now, where exactly they set up will be the mystery. I am also very confident they will setup across NJ. The first model here is the RGEM model (Canada) showing a band setting up across central areas of NJ (yellow stripe). 

The second is the NAM (American)  model. Now, this is a 1 hour shot of a potential band (yes, that's 3.5" per hour) in the speck in Monmouth / Ocean County. Other areas are still very significant 1 hour rates:

So, as you can see, we are dealing with a VERY potent system. Models have been depicting over and over again for about .5-.75" inches water over the area, so that would translate to a good snowfall of 6-10" With that, I am raising my expected accumulations to 6-10" as a base. I am also going to say, if you get stuck under a band, you will be looking at 8-12" of snow. I even think there could be some areas along coastal sections of NJ (Monmouth Ocean Counties) that could go over 12" of snow. With winds gusting as well in the 20mph range, blowing snow will be a concern. I also think there will be locations reporting thundersnow tomorrow evening into the night as the low pressure really bombs out in the Atlantic. 

I will also preface this by saying, when we have strong lifting creating bands of snow, there will be other areas that will have very light precipitation. So, I think there will be a sharp cutoff to areas in NW NJ and NE PA. I truly believe this will be a I-95 special from DC to Boston. 

As always, updates will be coming on facebook and twitter. I will post a blog posting after the nightime model runs as well. 

Tuesday / Wednesday Storm (Monday Noon Update)

24 hours ago, we were looking at being on the northern fringes of a developing clipper. Originally, we were looking at a nice light snowfall on the order of 1-3". Over the past 24 hours, this has grown into a rather potent system which will bring another plowable snowfall to the area. The developing clipper will now make it to the coast where it will rapidly deepen and throw back a decent amount of snows from DC to Boston. It will be a fairly quick moving storm (12 hours) but it will drop some fairly impressive snows. as of now, look like the snow will start around 1pm Tuesday and last until around 1am Wednesday.

An Arctic front will move through tonight keeping temperatures in the 20's tomorrow. This should be an all snow event, with no chance of mixing. Snow will work in around 1pm and will probably start sticking pretty quickly. Snow will really start picking up during the afternoon. Travel will quickly become treacherous and rush hour tomorrow will be pretty nasty. Snow will continue through the evening into the night and will last until the early morning hours on Wednesday. As of now, I am looking at 4-6" of snow area wide, with potential for more in any banding that sets up.

Any time we have a developing low pressure along the coast, we will have to watch the exact area where it develops. This will coincide with where the best precipitation will develop. As of now, it is modeled to set up in a prime area for snows. This is a prime I-95 storm. Depending how fast the low pressure can develop, heavy snow bands can enter the area, along with thundersnow. Of course, exact development area will dictate where those bands set up.

A quick update on models. Last night, models began to really show the potential. All models were showing a decent event, minus the NAM model. This morning, the NAM began to see it as well, and now all models are showing a decent storm. The Euro model last night was showing a lighter event, with mostly 2" up to about 195 in NJ and less above that. Will be interested to see what it shows at noon today. The Euro is the last hold out.

As always, more to come. I will update again in the afternoon and night!

Winter Storm Watch Tuesday/Wednesday Issued

Winter Storm Watch (New Jersey)
2014-01-20T05:24:00GMT-0500
2014-01-22T01:00:00GMT-0500

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A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...AND ALL OF DELAWARE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

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Atlantic; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Camden; Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth

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Corey

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Heads Up!

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-01-11T14:30:00GMT-0500
2014-01-11T16:00:00GMT-0500

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...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMDEN...CECIL...

DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...KENT...NEW CASTLE...NORTHERN QUEEN ANNE`S...

NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...NORTHWESTERN KENT...PHILADELPHIA...SALEM...

SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS...SOUTHEASTERN HUNTERDON...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN CHESTER...SOUTHWESTERN SOMERSET...WESTERN BURLINGTON AND WESTERN MERCER COUNTIES...

AT 225 PM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM LOMBARD TO HILLSMERE SHORES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR MARSHALLTON...TOUGHKENAMON...AND KENNETT SQUARE AROUND 240 PM...WEST GOSHEN...WEST CHESTER...NEWARK...AND KINGSTOWN AROUND 250 PM...DEVON-BERWYN AND KING OF PRUSSIA AROUND 300 PM.

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Camden; Cumberland; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington

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Corey

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Possible Strong Winds Later

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2014-01-11T11:43:00GMT-0500
2014-01-11T20:00:00GMT-0500

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...STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...

LATER TODAY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MIGHT START DEVELOPING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS ABOVE THE GROUND ARE GOING TO BE VERY STRONG. IF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE, THIS WOULD INCREASE THEIR ABILITY TO MIX THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN DELMARVA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EVEN WITHOUT THE THUNDERSTORMS, WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY COULD EASILY REACH AROUND 30 MPH. IF YOU HAVE TRAVELING PLANS LATER TODAY, PLEASE BE ON THE ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY AND WOULD CAUSE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

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Camden; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Somerset

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Corey

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Freezing Rain Advisory

Freezing Rain Advisory (New Jersey)
2014-01-09T15:26:00GMT-0500
2014-01-10T09:00:00GMT-0500

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A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEAR AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN. SOME SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE. * TIMING...SNOW COULD BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING. * IMPACTS...THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR BLACK ICE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. * WINDS...VARIABLE DIRECTION OF 5 MPH OR LESS. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

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Camden; Cumberland; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Western Monmouth

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Corey

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Flood Watch For An Ice Jam

Flash Flood Watch (New Jersey)
2014-01-08T10:21:00GMT-0500
2014-01-09T06:00:00GMT-0500

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A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

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...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE DELAWARE RIVER DUE TO AN ICE JAM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...ADJACENT TO THE DELAWARE RIVER...INCLUDING MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY...AND LOWER BUCKS AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * AN ICE JAM HAS DEVELOPED ON THE DELAWARE RIVER NEAR TRENTON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FEW MILES OF NEAR BANK FULL CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE ICE JAM. WHEN THIS ICE JAM BREAKS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WATER BEHIND THE JAM TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM. * TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO THE ICE JAM MAY NOT BREAK UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. * THOUGH IT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE HOW HIGH THE WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ONCE THE ICE JAM BREAKS...THERE IS A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. * NAVIGATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE, SUCH AS DOCKS, COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE RELEASE.

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Mercer; Northwestern Burlington

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Corey

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January 2-3, 2014 Storm Final Thoughts (Thursday AM)

Final thoughts are in. I am actually quite excited for this storm to get underway in the area. It has the "look" and "feel" out there of a big storm if there is such a thing. Temperatures have already started falling as I am currently sitting at 31 after a mornin temp of 34 during my drive into work this morning. 

Interaction between the polar and subtropical jets have started, now we just need to wait until the precipitation fills in. Areas up north in PA, NY, CT and MA already have snow falling. This is associated with the polar jet plunging south. 

Light snow showers will overspread the area this afternoon. Snow showers will be sparse at first but will fill in and intensify towards evening. Late evening and overnight snow will really pick up. Winds will also start cranking in response to a rapidly developing low pressure along the easy coast. Temperatures will also plummet to single digits in the north and the teens throughout the rest of the state and even to the coast!

Winds will be whipping the snow around and substantial drifting will occur. In addition, with cold temperatures (highs tomorrow in the low teens) salt will not have the same effect on the roads. It will be a lot harder to have the melting power  in the colder temps. 

Generally, I am looking for 2-4" across extreme SNJ, N DE and NE MD. 4-8" across much of CNJ including the Philly to Trenton area. I also like 6-10" across NNJ into the NYC area. Areas in CT 8-12"

The real wildcard here will be where some of the intense snow bands set up. Weather models have been showing them along the NJ coast (Ocean and Monmouth Counties) and over Long Island. They can set up anywhere, and getting stuck under them can raise snow amounts 2-4"

In any case, be safe and stay alert for warnings. I will be updating throughout the day! 

Winter Storm Warning Now Issued

Winter Storm Warning (New Jersey)
2014-01-02T03:32:00GMT-0500
2014-01-03T13:00:00GMT-0500

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A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

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...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUS COLD...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THEN TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OUT TO SEA.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SOME RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON FROM PHILADELPHIA SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL SHOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS THURSDAY EVENING AS SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE. THIS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY FLUFFY SNOW AND AS WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS. ROAD PLOWING OPERATIONS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND ALSO SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND CREATES NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...STARTING OUT RANGING BETWEEN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON, THEN FALLING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS TONIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHERE TEMPERATURES START OUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, FLASH FREEZING CAN OCCUR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE SNOW INCREASES. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE A TIMES TONIGHT.

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Atlantic; Camden; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth

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Corey

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Winter Storm Watch Issued- NJ

Winter Storm Watch (New Jersey)
2014-01-01T14:35:00GMT-0500
2014-01-03T10:00:00GMT-0500

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A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUS COLD...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING. A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OUT TO SEA.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES ANTICIPATED. * TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SOME RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX LATER THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL SHOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS THURSDAY EVENING AS SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE. THIS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY FLUFFY SNOW AND AS WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SHOULD MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS. ROAD PLOWING OPERATIONS WOULD BE GREATLY AFFECTED, ESPECIALLY DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND ALSO SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM THURSDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING FRIDAY. * TEMPERATURES...STARTING OUT RANGING BETWEEN ABOUT THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN FALLING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHERE TEMPERATURES START OUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY, FLASH FREEZING CAN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE SNOW INCREASES. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE A TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT.

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Atlantic; Camden; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth

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Corey

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January 2-3, 2014 Storm (Wednesday Noon Update)

First, HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Well, here we are once again with a very challenging forecast which will more than likely go down to another nowcasting event. There are a number of moving parts to this storm, and the overall strength will not be known for some time. We have an interaction that will occur between the subtropical jet (currently the precipitation along the Gulf States and the Polar jet (currently the precipitation through the midwest into Detroit). As seen here:

As the storm progresses, we will see an interaction occur. When, and how quickly these parts interact and eventually phase, that will determine how much snow we are looking at. The NAM model paints an earlier phase and a bigger storm for our area, and the GFS model paints a later phase, and as a result, a bigger storm over New England. In any case, the GFS model still paints a plowable event for our area.

GFS model- Showing a quick intesification for our area, but moves out rather quickly in the next frame and hits NE.

1am Friday:

 Friday 7am: (notice brunt of the precip off shore and over eastern NE

NAM MODEL

Quicker phase, really hammers our area

 Still has moderate to heavy snow over our area at 7am Friday (notice our area has the brunt of the precip):

So, the big question will be when does this phase occur. And unfortunately, it will have to be now casted tomorrow night. Either case, we are looking at a storm which will drop a couple inches. Here is where I am now, if we get that earlier phase, I think our area would be looking at 6-10" of snow. If we get that later phase, I think we will be looking at 2-4 (SNJ) to 3-6 (CNJ-NNJ). Its going to be another thread the needle event, with another tough forecast. Don't be surprised to hear amounts going up and down by the media stations. I do believe that Watches and or Warnings will be issued for MT Holly's forecast area this afternoon. In addition, Areas just to our north, we may actually have the B word watches issued. Winds will definitely be a factor, and if they can get high enough, we may meet that criteria ("Blizzard conditions" technically occur when strong winds (at least 35 mph) combine with either falling snow or snow on the ground to reduce visibilities to 1/4 mile or less for at least three hours.)

The other dangerous part of this storm will be the temperatures. We are dealing with a polar airmass with this, so even though the morning tomorrow will be cool, temperatures will plummet tomorrow night and it could infact get down to the teens and be snowing, 20's all the way down to the coast. The danger with that, is #1, its cold and #2, salt does not work as well in much colder temperatures. #3, snow ratios will be higher (usually 1" water = 10" of snow). We could be looking at 15:1, 20:1 or higher! In any case, I am tuned and am looking forward to seeing this come together!