12/28/2012 Evening Update

Well, what a turn of events on the weather modeling regarding tomorrows storm. Yesterday, we were looking at a storm that was tracking east of us far enough where there was no issues with precipitation type. We were getting snow, end of story. Today, things have changed. Each model run has brought a solution closer and closer to the coast, and also transferring energy and phasing energy sooner. All this leaves us in a position where we may actually have to worry about a changeover to a mix, or worse, rain.

Models have been showing this all day, and each run is more precipitation and further west (bringing in warmer air). I am kinda hoping there is a correction back a bit to the east on tonights runs, but not overly enthusiastic that happens. Tomorrow, it is very possible as of now, that coastal areas get a brief period of snow before a direct change to rain. That rain/snow line will then march northward and to what extent is unknown, it will just have to be watched in a nowcasting situation tomorrow. It will more than likely setup shop somewhere around interstate 95.

More to come.

Tomorrow Update

Well, there is a general consensus amongst the models on a moderate snow event Saturday. We will have snow moving in around daybreak and will fall for the majority of the daylight hours. As of now, I am thinking 2-4" area wide. Places towards the coast may be limited due to mixing issues.

There are some issues too that could lead to some changes as well. Currently, northern stream (from Canada) and southern stream lows (from S US) are going to move towards the area. A phase is expected to take place just off the Delaware / Virginia Coast. If this phase does not occur, we would probably have some snow showers move through with a dusting. If it phases further north, we would have a decreased amount of snow. Further south, we would have to see how fast it could intensify, how close to the coast (closer would push the rain/snow line further west) it would track.

As of now though, I am thinking 2-4" area wide.

updates as always on twitter (@townerswxage) and facebook (Towner's Weather PAGE).

Weekend Update

As the parade of storms continues, we now focus our attention to the weekend. After lake cutters and Appalachian runners, we finally have "our" storm for the central NJ area. This weekend we will see our first chance at measurable snow since early November. There are still some questions regarding the storm with its track, intensity and redevelopment. We will have a low pressure following a similar track as this past storm through the Gulf States but will then redevelop off the southeast coast, much further south than the previous storm. This further south redevelopment will allow for cold air to remain entrenched over us, and keep us as snow. The questions will be the same as they always are. How fast does the storm travel, how fast and intense can it become once it redevelops.

As of now, the EURO model has a solid hit, GFS is a glancing blow and the NAM is further east (snow shower maybe). As of now, having the EURO on our side is a major plus. Updates will be coming for this storm 4 times a day as the model runs come out. They will not always be posted on my blog, so please follow on twitter (@townerswxpage) and on facebook Towner's Weather PAGE.

This is finally a storm we can get excited about and track!

Wednesday Storm (Today)

After a record setting day of severe weather in and along the Gulf States, we head in a different direction today as this storm evolves. While there will be severe weather, it shouldnt be anywhere near as nasty as yesterday. The severe weather setup today appears to be along coastal areas of the SE states, mainly NC and SC. Storms will fire, and the potential for tornadoes exists.

Further north, we already have had snow reports in VA, DC and up into Maryland. There is a significant battle going on now between entrenched cold air and the warm air riding up and over the cold. This cold air damming process will result in significant icing conditions to areas in the Amish country of PA through the Lehigh Valley. We have reports of snow that changed to sleet and now back to snow around DC, freezing rain being reported in Columbia, MD with snow further west. So, there is a battle going on, and it seems like it wants to take shape along the I-95 corridor.

Areas further north, like in Central NJ, we have temperatures in the upper 20's to lower 30's with dewpoints in the lower 20's. This is significant because as evaporational cooling takes place, our temperatures will drop and the dewpoint will rise until they meet. Having temperatures drop will create a nasty setup. Eventually though, warm air will win out and we will turn to rain. How long it takes the warm air, how long does the snow and sleet last will be the question.

I expect snow to overspread the area and then mix with and change to sleet. This afternoon I expect everything to change over to rain and come down heavy. It will be a very raw day. Areas just to the west and north of here will have a significant storm on their hands with major icing and further north, major snows.

Updates throughout the day on twitter and facebook!

One Down, Two More To Go

First, Merry Christmas to all my followers celebrating today. It was nice to see the flakes flying last night!

Our first event has come and gone. It was a minor event, but nonetheless anytime flakes can fly on Christmas Eve, it is special.

Another storm will be looking to make an impact tomorrow. This storm will be a powerful storm and will bring us a mix bag of precipitation. Areas further north, like the Poconos and NW NJ thru the Carskill region of NY through central New England will be bearing the real heavy snow. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for those areas. A foot of snow is likely in those areas! For us, a mix of rain and snow will transition to all rain and become heavy at times. 1-2" of rain may fall. This storm moves out Thursday.

Then our attention turns towards the weekend where another coastal storm looks to move into the area. This looks like a Sunday into Monday type deal. It does appear this will be our best chance at snow as it will track further south and east of the precious storms keeping is in the cold. What we don't want is too Far East where it goes out to sea. More to come on this as we get closer!

Merry Christmas Update

Well, snow has overspread the area. From this morning a number of models were showing a colder and further south solution. As the day went in and I saw reports in VA and MD of snow and accumulating snow, things looked good for up here. Don't expect a whole lot, and a transition to mix or rain may occur, so enjoy it while you can. It will be long gone by the time you wake up.

We have another storm for Wednesday Thursday which appears to be another close call, but I am thinking rain, and lots of it. Then, toward the end of the year, we have another potential coastal storm which looks to be our best shot at a significant storm. An active period ahead!

Enjoy the snow tonight! And Merry Christmas to those celebrating!

Storms Still Showing Up

Models are continuing the thinking of a light to moderate event Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. However, over the past day, warm air has been working its way in over the area, meaning we may switch to or mix with rain/sleet etc. Thinking now snow starts Christmas Eve, changes to rain at some point and then back to snow for the end. In any case, it will be nice to see and we have some time for things to change.

The big ticket event is after Christmas. The period of the 26-28 is looking more and more likely of a coastal storm to form and bring precipitation into the area. This storm, as explained yesterday, has a number of variables that will effect the overall outcome for the area. Storms that have secondary development on the coast are highly susceptible for changes, sometimes even up to immediate impact. There will be more to come with this storm.

Until then, weather looks good for the final push to Christmas.

Cooler Air Moves In, And A Look Down The Road

A wild night of rain and winds will give way to falling temperatures and blustery conditions. The low pressure which brought us some rain last night will pull away and allow high pressure to build in. This will also allow more seasonable temperatures across the area. I mentioned earlier in the week about the parade of storms and trying to get that 50/50 low established. It appears over the next couple days we will see a 50/50 low established. Low and behold, we also have a low pressure system moving up shortly after Christmas. This is where things get a little exciting.

First, the good news. The GFS model has been pretty consistent about a clipper that may roll through the area Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Yes, this would more than likely mean some snow for the area. Something to keep an eye on. It has been a while in Central NJ that I can remember snow on Christmas Eve and morning. Keeping my fingers crossed. Once the clipper moves through, all attention will be focused on the 26-28 for a potential coastal storm to take shape. We will have a low pressure come up through the Tennessee Valley and transfer energy to a coastal low. Where this low sets up, how strong, how quick it can intensify will all be questions that will determine what type of precipitation, how much and how long. For now though, looking like a fairly good shot of two potentially good storms coming up within the week.

For today, temperatures will drop as the day goes on as we transition to more seasonable temperatures.

Stormy Period Begins

As the traffic line of storms continues  we are looking at a mostly rain event this week both today and then towards the end of the week. Over the week, the storm track will take the low pressures into the Ohio River Valley  and up into the northeast. These are known as "Lake Cutters" and are not good news for east coast snow lovers. Low Pressures to the west keep us in the warm sector since we would be on the east side. Even if a extremely cold air mass was in place, we would see a front end thump and then transition to freezing precipitation and rain just based on how the upper levels of the atmosphere get flooded with warm air. That being said, it will still be an active pattern and storms now appear to be lined up past Christmas. We are in need of one of these storms to get to that 50/50 position to clog up the pipeline of storms. Once this happens, and we can secure some colder air, we will be in business. The trick is, we need this to happen while we are in a conducive storm pattern as we are in now. Keep your fingers crossed.

Hello My Friends, We Meet Again

Or, as Alice Cooper sings.... "Hello, Hooray!"

Yes, Hello, Hooray, we finally have some weather to track!It has been a dull 6 weeks. Temperatures in the 60's, hanging christmas lights in shorts is not how things are supposed to be. First, I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving and for my Jewish readers, I hope your season has been festive and merry. Everyone else, T minus 10 days!

So, on to the weather. After a very quiet and warm 6 weeks, things are going to be changing. The overall weather pattern is going to be changing. We are going to have a line of storms starting early week next week and continuing for the next week or two. Yes, we will have chances for storms over the next two weeks, but will that equate to snow? This is the big question. As many of you know, the biggest storms we can get have to have a few ingredients. We need an overall pattern which allows for coastal development, and keeping it close enough to the coast to bring precipitation. We need to have a 50/50 low (a low pressure at 50 latitude  50 longitude) to "block" or severely slow down any storms coming up the coast, and acts to keep them along the coast. We also need cold air, so we need a moderate high pressure set up over eastern Canada which will allow cold air to come into the area. These are the main features, although there are a number of others as well.

While we have a line of storms stacking up, it is going to be interesting to see how these storms play out. Models have been all over the place. They have shown a number of solutions, often wildly different only hours apart. Why you may ask, good question. As I said, a number of issues come into play. Yes, we may have a coastal storm, it may bring us rain. This is okay though. As part of the overall pattern, we need to get a 50/50 low, which any coastal low pressure can do. So, we may have storm #1 bring us rain, but as long as it can get to 50/50 we are good (one part of the equation). So, storm #1 could potentially become the 50/50 low to block storm #2 and then whatever happens with storm #2 will effect storm #3. Its confusing, but think of it has a toll booth along the highway. A very progressive pattern (which we have been in) is like using the EZ pass lanes. The pattern we are changing too is like using the old school tool booth collectors. Its not as fast and sometimes the lines back up.

So, long story short, I see a storm coming for  early next week, which at this point, I think is going to be rain. I am hoping that this storm can get up to become the 50/50 low because a couple days later we could be looking at another developing coastal storm! And then there is even a chance, long range, of something popping around Christmas. So, buckle up and enjoy the ride. As always, follow me on twitter @townerswxpage and on facebook Towner's Weather PAGE. spread the word, always love to have new followers! Rapid updates will be put out on twitter/facebook and more in depth discussion will be done on my blog page (which ends up on twitter and facebook as well)

Flakes Fly Tomorrow.....

But don't really expect any accumulations. We have a small disturbance moving through the area tomorrow. Temperatures at best are going to be marginal, and the precipitation will be falling during the daytime hours. I think this will be one of those cases that it snows, but it will be light enough that we will not see any accumulations. Possibly a coating on grass. So, don't be surprised to see flakes fly tomorrow.

NAM Model- The most juiced up model bringing .5" of water equivalent to the area. If you want snow, hug this.

GFS- same track, a lot less precipitation.

EURO- nothing measurable.


As you can see, there is little agreement. Once again, going to be a thread the needle type situation.

Here We Go....

Sorry for the late post. Well, We have before us, our first taste of winter. I am fairly confident snow will fall. Really, the only issue I have is temperatures. We have temperatures now in the mid to upper 30's. What we will have to watch is the dew points. Right now, dew points are in the mid 20's. What we need to watch is as the precipitation moves in, the dew point and the physical temperature will adjust towards each other. This is called evaporational cooling and basically saturates the atmosphere at the expense of lower temperatures. So, We will see how low the temperatures can go. Also, we have a coastal storm, so air from over the ocean will be entrained into the system which at this time of year is warm. How far west does this air make it? There is still another way to overcome marginal temperatures. This is called mesoscale banding. Basically, this is when an intese heavy band of snow develops and moves over an area. These are usually detected on the radar view as brighter colors. When snow falls heavy, it will accumulate at any tmeperature (it will also usually melt faster as well if temperatures remain). Still a lot of questions.

As of now, the radar is looking very healthy. This is moving westward, onshore

many of those "bands" have already develop, so this is a major plus for those that want snow.

I think that region wide, we can  see anywhere from 2-4" The models have really ben showing the Philly area getting the brunt, but really it will be all dependent on where those bands set up. Those are all nowcast issues and will have to be determined via the radar. But I like 2-4" 2" being areas where banding does not set up, and 6" if you can land under the most persistent bands, you can get to 4" If you are under a band for a while, 6" is not out of the question. Shore areas, I think you will primarily be rain on this storm.

In addition, watch out for the winds. The winds will be whipping around and any of the fragile power lines will again begin to fall. In addition, this will be a heavy wet snow and will plaster trees that still have leaves on them and cause limbs to come down.

So, look for rains to start, and then transition over to snow quickly. It will snow most of the afternoon and into tonight before tapering off early tomorrow morning.

I will be updating twitter (@townerswxpage) and my Facebook page (Towner's Weather PAGE) with the latest and where some of those bands set up.

Stay Safe!

Wednesday / Thursday Evening Update 11/6/2012

Hopefully this finds you having already voted today. In addition, lets start with some good news. After this storm pushes through, we are going to be looking pretty with temperatures in the upper 50's and 60's. We should have these temps for atleast a few days. This will really help with the clean up and rebuilding down da shore.

Now, the bad news. What was excellent news this morning, has now transitioned into a mess. Models were all showing a storm weaker, and moving to the east this morning away from our area. I highlighted some ideas I had regarding what can happen. It is very dependent on this disturbance moving through the midwest. My idea is, if it can catch the low pressure of the SE coast, it would cause it to slow up and move closer to the coast. I also showed a link to the current water vapor loop. The disturbance was in Iowa this morning. I also did say it was moving rather drastically towards the low off the GA coast. Well, here is a link to the current water vapor loop. This disturbance has ALMOST caught the low.

 WATER VAPOR LOOP

 I think the models were able to clue in on that today, and hence the change further west. So, seeing the water vapor, I am all in for a closer to the coast track. Now, the next question that has to be answered.....HOW CLOSE? Well, this will be a huge factor for a number of reasons. As discussed earlier, the closer to the coast, the closer the strongest winds are. The closer to the coast, the more precipitation we receive (and the further west it goes). The closer to the coast, colder air stays further west and wraps in there and snow is limited to the western areas. Storm moves further east, precipitation stays closer to the coast, and the colder air wraps in giving us snow. See, a number of variables.

We have seen a number of these storms before in the area. We have seen complete misses, we have seen heavy rain change to heavy snow and creating accumulations and we have seen all snow events and all rain events. I think we get to experience it all with this one. My feeling, as of now is we have some rain move in during the early afternoon. Through the afternoon the rain will change over to snow, from west to east. I then believe it will probably snow for the majority of the overnight hours before tapering off in the early morning hours Thursday.

This is a super complex storm and there are a number of wheels in motion. I wouldnt be surprised with anything that happens tomorrow. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. More to come tonight where we can maybe even talk some accumulations!

Winter Weather Advisories are out, please heed the message....the first snow of the year is usually the most dangerous as people have not had to drive in those conditions for a while.

Hello My Friend, Winter Weather Advisories Are Up

More to come later, wanted to get the first of the season out! I will have a good discussion on this later.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH SOUTH AND EAST. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...

SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVIEST LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN AND SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY SO ANY DAYTIME ACCUMULATION WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TOWARD FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES. TREATED ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ICE FREE. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

Wednesday / Thursday thoughts 11/6/2012 morning

Well, we have seen a number of model swings over the past day. We had a good agreement a couple days ago, but that has changed. From rain to snow, from onshore to offshore and from strong to weaker. We have seen models flipping all over the place. What does it all mean? Basically what I think is happening is the models are having a tough time accounting for all the players on the field. Upstream blocking, High pressure, Midwest disturbance etc. Taking those into account and then the timing has a great impact on our storm, or lack thereof.

You can see it here on the Water Vapor loop: Notice the darker area marching towards the "swirl" over GA, thats the disturbance trying to "meet up" with the low pressure.

WATER VAPOR LINK

The low pressure is forming off the GA coast as I write. At the same time, a disturbance is shooting through the midwest and trying to catch and meet up with the low off the GA coast. If this can meet up earlier, we could see a stronger, more inland track. If this misses, or the timing is delayed, we get a weaker, further east solution. For those of us who made it through Sandy, we are all rooting for the weaker, out to sea solution. This has been the trend over the past 16 hours.

Now, if the disturbance can "catch" the low earlier, we will be looking at a more inland track. Not so much inland, but more towards the coastal areas, bringing us a greater impact. The earlier the meeting, the stronger the system, the stronger the winds. And, the earlier they meet up, means a more westward track, meaning we stay a majority of rain (snow back into C PA). The further to the east, the better the chance for snow (in the Jersey area). And obviously, it could go so far east we are not even effected.

These types of storms are always touchy here. We have seen all kinds of outcomes. I will say this, any winds will be bad. Any storm surge now at the coast will be bad. Our area is fragile and any impact will have negative effects. My gut feeling as of now says we get a slop fest. The midday runs are coming up and I think we will know more seeing this fresh new data set. Is the futher east solution still looking good or is it going to have a bigger effect on us....more to come after the midday runs!

Wednesday / Thursday

It appears that we have a decent agreement in the models regarding a potential Nor'easter set to strike an already vulnerable area Wednesday into Thursday. We will have a low pressure develop off the Georgia / South Carolina coast Tuesday which will move north to just off the Cape Hatteras, NC coast. From there, it will move off the Jersey coast and then up into New England. Much like Sandy, this storm will be pushed along the coast because of a "blocking" situation in the upper atmosphere up around Greenland.  This will prevent the storm from moving offshore. In addition, it could aid in slowing the storm down over the area, which has shown up in the models.

What this means for us; #1, the shore will once again get battered with winds and flooding rains. In any other circumstance, this would be your run of the mill nor'easter. With the area and many defenses (dunes, sands etc) already ravaged, any storm is a worst case scenario, but this could be worse since it would be a moderate nor'easter. #2 Inland winds on an already fragile electrical system is another disaster waiting to happen. #3, the trees around here are considerably weaker now after Sandy that any more wind could cause a number of them to topple over. #4, Any rain on top of already flooded areas is never a good mix. We may be in for another 12-18 hour period of strong winds.

There are still some variables that need to be worked out, but a consensus is there that we will be effected by a nor'easter. Some of things still to be determined are how close to the coast doest this move, how strong can the storm become and how fast does it move? A tack closer to the coast would bring more of a wind and rain threat inland, as oppose to a further east track which could limit winds inland. Since the storm will develop off the Georgia / SC coast, how strong can it become? This is shown by the pressure. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. This is important too because the stronger the storm can get will create a bigger gradient between high and low pressures which will correlate down to us in winds. lower the pressure, greater the winds. and the third wildcard is the blocking. The stronger the block, the slower our storm moves. Models have been showing the storm stalling for a period of time between AC, NJ and NYC/Long Island.

As of now, rain develops Wednesday and will be heavy at times. Winds will kick up as the storm moves closer. I do think this is a rain event.  Snows will be confined to Central PA, Poconos and portions of New England (maybe NW NJ as the storm moves away). There will be more to come as the models come in. Quick updates of the models will be posted on twitter @townerswxpage and on my facebook page Towner's Weather PAGE.

A Look Into Next Week

models are once again a buzz with a potential coastal storm for next week. This appears to be the time period from Wednesday through Thursday. The GFS and Euro are still jumping around on solutions, but both show a threat. I will be monitoring it, as any additional storm condition could hamper a lot of the recovery efforts and clean up. More to come. Here are some of the models and what they are showing:

Euro

Noon yesterday:

Midnight last night:

GFS:

Midnight last night:

Todays morning run:

Back Online, A Message For Everyone

I am finally back up and running. My thoughts go out to everyone effected. Some were lucky, others not so much. We have all seen the devastation, and many of us are still speechless. The images out there and the ones still to come will take our breath away. For those who have lost loved ones, our hearts weep for you, and I send my sincerest condolences. Houses, cars, roads and power can all be replaced and repaired. The loss of a loved cannot.

My goal for my blog is to bring you information. Sometimes storms are fun and exciting and trust me, no one likes a good storm more than me. Other times, they can downright deadly. It's these deadly storms that change lives and our way of thinking. I can only hope my information can be used as a means of preparation. Mother nature doesn't always bring rainbows. Sometimes though, when we experience the worst mother nature throws at us, it brings out the best in people. We all have examples we can think of, and these are the things that matter most. Remember those who are still in need.

I would like to thank all my new followers, and those that have been with me for a while. I will continue to post on here, so please continue to share my page. Please continue to think of those who have had their lives turned upside down, I know I will be.

Sandy Evening Update 10/27/2012

You know what really grinds my gears?

Not much more to add from my previous posts, but I am going to re-emphasize a point I have made before. I explained how Sandy was initially a tropical Hurricane. A tropical hurricane is made up 100% of tropical characteristics. We knew at some point this was going to phase and become a hybrid storm, or simply not a 100% tropical storm anymore. Once it is no longer a 100% tropical, it becomes what is known as sub-tropical or post tropical. And, once it becomes subtropical, the National Hurricane Center will no longer issue warnings / watches etc. It was also decided this morning that they would not extend warnings or watches past North Carolina. Hence, why we have yet to be placed in a watch or warning yet. Instead, the NHC is punting the football to the local National Weather offices to make the calls.

Whats the big deal you ask? Well, up until this point things have progressed smoothly, and one agency was spearheading a consistent alerting method dealing with watches, warnings and discussions. Now, when the proverbial crap is going to hit the fan, they wash their hands of it and leave the coordinating up to 5 or 6 offices who are going to come up with their own watches and warnings and coming up with their own discussions. Not to mention, now they are going to have to take the time to coordinate communications with those other offices to make sure they are putting out a consistent message. And, since it is technically a subtropical system, the wording Hurricane Watch and Warnings will not be used. Instead, we will get High Wind Warnings, or Coastal Flood Warnings or a myriad of other things. This simple task is going to confuse the general public, and in a time like this, could mean peoples safety.

Case in point, Mayor Bloomberg had been talking about evacuations and such all week. Tonight, he had a press conference and actually stated that they are not concerned about storm surge because it is not like a tropical storm or hurricane. When I heard this, I really felt like growing my hair back so I could pull it out. #1, the storm surge from "still hurricane but soon to be subtropical" Sandy is going to out perform Irene, and numerous other "tropical storms" or "hurricanes" that have proceeded it. #2, there has never been a history of this type of storm coming north and making a hard left turn towards land. We simply dont know what kind of effect this will have on storm surge on top of an impressive forecasted surge. #3, the public is now confused, and when we are facing a storm of this magnitude, confusion is not your friend.#4, the general public has heard about tropical storm and hurricane Sandy ALL WEEK. now, all the sudden a day before it hits, we dont issue hurricane watches or warnings and people see high wind warning.....they will think it somehow has weakened, went out to sea, or will hit less than forecasted.



I am going to set the record straight. We are facing an unprecedented storm. We really dont know whats going to happen when this phase occurs and a massive storm suddenly hangs a hard left and comes ashore. We can see that there is a crapload of rain forecasted, and a hell of a lot of wind. Flooding will occur, power will be lost and damage will be caused. Where? All over....this is a massive storm, with a massive wind field and a massive amount of rain (and snow for those in WVA, E KY, W PA W VA). I really cannot be more clear. Heed the warnings, whatever they are, heed them. If your working, prepare to stay at work. If your at home, prepare to stay at home. Hopefully you have prepped the best you can.

Sorry, had to get this off my chest.

Sandy Morning Update 10/27/2012

for a brief 6 hour period last night, Sandy was dropped to a Tropical Storm. As of 8am though, she has regained hurricane strength. I explained last night that hurricane status is irrelevant really because this will be a dynamically driven storm that will feature a phase with the arctic jet. This phase will allow for rapid intensification prior to landfall.

I can say now with pretty good certainty that NJ is the odds on choice for landfall. This storm is going to be a very wide, very powerful storm. Regardless of where it hits, this will have far reaching devastation. As Sandy moves on land, areas to the north (Long Island, Southern New Englad) are going to experience winds sustained of 50-70mph with rains. Areas to the south of landfall will receive the heaviest rains (upwards of 1 foot....12 inches) and have winds sustained 30-50mph. All indications that I have seen on the models show an event bordering on 2 days......48 hours.

Sandy is crawling now off the SE US coast and is actually undergoing some changes to her structure. This is the reason for the change in status....and yes, this change was shown on the models. Everything at this point has pretty good agreement.

We cannot stop the weather, but you can prepare. Today is the day for that. While preparing, please remember you local liquor stores, they do have plenty of items to help you through the next couple of days, and I am sure they could use the extra business :)

More to come. Thank you again to all the people who have liked my facebook and twitter feed. Updates will be flying out through both over the next few days (as long as I have power).

@townerswxpage (twitter)
Towner's Weather PAGE (facebook)

Hurricane Sandy Evening Update 10/26/2012

Hurricane Sandy is still a category 1 Hurricane with sustained winds. This is a minimal hurricane at this point. it is expected to stay at this strength, or at Tropical Storm Strength for up to another 36 hours. From that point, it will begin to strengthen once again. With that being said, let me say this....do not go by the strength of the hurricane. This was never about the strength of the hurricane. The whole dynamic of the system is going to be when the phase takes place and draws the storm towards the coast. This is when the fireworks pop. Please oh please do not go by the strength of the hurricane and base the entire storm off of that. 

major models are still keying in on our area. We are still under the gun for extremely heavy rains, strong winds and flooding. 

More updates will be out again after the model runs tonight. Stay tuned to twitter (@townerswxpage) and my facebook page (Towner's Weather PAGE). 

Hurricane Sandy Morning Update 10/26/2012

Hurricane Sandy is a Category 1 Hurricane with sustained winds at 80mph. She is sitting in the Atlantic due east of Miami, Fla. She is moving NW at 10mph. Here is the latest track:

There is a general consensus now that there will be landfall from Delaware to Long Island. I am fairly confident we will see landfall in that area as of now. One thing that I am going to say, DO NOT GET CAUGHT UP in what category hurricane Sandy is. This is not your typical hurricane, and will not behave as such. I say this because some of the characteristics that she will be taking on before landfall will not be Hurricane characteristics. Sure, a category 1 is better than a 3, but this is a very unique situation. Sandy is going to Phase with an impulse coming down from Canada and that will further enhance Sandy. When this phase happens, it will no longer be a tropical system. it will be known as a Subtropical system, and the phasing will greatly enhance the strength of the storm. This is be a VERY large area that will be effected, and it will really not matter where landfall is, we will be effected. 

The phase is also whats going to draw Sandy back to the coast. Where exactly the phase starts will determine the landfall. This aspect will probably be unknown and will have to be "nowcasted" instead of forecasted. What to expect. Lots of rain, damaging winds, flooding, widespread power outages and possible torandoes (likely on the right side of the storm). 

Here is the estimated rain amounts graph: This will be updated as we come closer too (I beleive that is 12.8 going into Delaware)-

In any case,there will be plenty more updates coming through. Remember to follow my twitter (@townerswxpage) and my facebook page (Towner's Weather PAGE). 

National Hurricane Center and HPC Not Messing Around

Wow, VERY bold. The National Hurricane Center just put this out with their 11am update:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012


...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S
SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO
A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO
TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD
SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,
INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE
LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC
CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS. 

Halloween / Sandy Morning Update 10/25/2012

Wow, woke up this morning to hear that Sandy overnight strengthened to a extremely strong Cat 2 Hurricane. At the NHC 2am update, Sandy had sustained winds of 110mph. Thats 1mph short of being a Cat 3 hurricane. Once we are talking about a cat 3 or higher hurricane, it is classified as a MAJOR hurricane. I had read somewhere yesterday that two days ago, they gave Sandy about a 1% chance of reaching cat 3 status. As of 5am, her winds went down to 105mph sustained. But, she is now clearing Cuba and will be back over water. The next 24 hours will be telling. A major hurricane is quite a feat. In any case, here is the latest on Sandy:

A beaut:

Now, to the models. The Euro stays steadfast. Still shows a bomb making landfall in Deleware / South Jersey. This is the 8th run in a row of a fairly consistent landfall. Here is the model:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:

The NOGAPS gives a similar outcome although a little bit earlier:

Sunday Evening:

Monday Morning:

And the Canadian Model shows a similar track, but does not have the "phase" until it hits Long Island and then brings it back west across NYC (and this is Tuesday Morning):

Tuesday Evening:

 The GFS model continues to bounce around from its out to sea solution, to a landfall in Maine and moves back west across Northern New England. As of the morning run, it was showing a further west track (for this model) and brings Sandy up to Maine before a phase occurs and brings it back over land:

Wednesday Morning:

6hours later:

So, there still is some spread. What we do know is there is an immense amount of variables that are going into this system. There is a lot that can go wrong and the timing needs to be perfect. A delay here, or something is not as strong as modeled can play a big part in a different solution. I will also say though, the closer we get, the chances increase of accuracy. Also, the National Weather Service will be performing increased weather balloon launching for each model update starting today. This will aid in getting the most up to date upper atmosphere conditions to be inputted into model guidance. 

For Jersey (or any area really) the strongest part of a hurricane is the right front quadrant then the right lower quadrant. These areas have the highest storm surge, heaviest rain, strongest winds and also the area that produces most of the severe weather (tornadoes, hail). This would be the impact for Jersey with a EURO or NOGAPS hit. The Right lower quadrant is the second strongest part, followed by the left front quadrant (Canadian Model scenario) and then the left lower quadrant is typically the weakest. This is another aspect of the storm that will have to be followed. You can imagine if we have a storm surge of 10-15 feet of water moving up the Delaware Bay into the Delaware River. 

Anyways, more to come. Please stay tuned. 

I will be updating both my twitter account (@townerswxpage) and facebook (Towner's Weather PAGE)

Sandy Update Evening 10/24/2012

Well, Sandy has passed through Jamaica and is now poised to hit Cuba. Sandy has intensified and now has winds up to 85 mph. In the latest Hurricane Hunter recon flights into the storm, they have measured winds up to 90 mph. Once 94 mph sustained winds are found, Sandy will become a Category 2 Hurricane. Very impressive to say the least because a day ago, Sandy was not supposed to become a hurricane until tonight, hence a borderline cat 2 storm. Very impressive to say the least.

Halloween / Sandy Update Midday 10/24/2012

Oh boy, lots of news now.

First things first, Sandy is now a hurricane. Sandy is packing 80mph winds and is currently making landfall in Jamaica. She will move up and through Cuba tonight and then take aim at the Bahamas Thursday Night into Friday. From there is where the real fun will begin. Here is the projected track as of 11am today:

Now, on this page, you can already see that this track is further west then it has been over the past couple days. I have already talked about the impulse in the area of Alaska that will cause the ridging out west (which creates the trough in the east). The trough in the east will allow the storm to ride along it, and eventually phase in with the arctic jet. When this phase occurs, this will be the driving force to "pulling" the storm westward to the coast. 

The Euro model has been deadly consistent over the past three days (6 model runs) of showing very consistent outcomes. it has been showing a monster hit in the area (all bringing a bad scenario to those of us in Jersey.) last nights run was probably the worst run Jersey could potentially experience with this storm.) It brought Sandy up the east coast, effecting the major cities and then when the phase took place, Sandy made an immediate left turn into Jersey. Here is the model run showing the scenario:

Monday Early Morning:

Tuesday Early Morning: (making left into Jersey)

And finally, Wednesday morning, over Philly:

no need to explain the outcome here, it would be devastating. strong winds, massive amounts of rain, widespread power outages etc etc. The Euro has been showing an East Coast impact for like I said, 3 straight days (6 model runs). Its on to something. 

I have talked a lot about the GFS model and how 4 days ago, it showed a similar hit, only to take it out to sea and bother Bermuda. Over the past three days, it has taken small steps back towards the Euro solution. It has tried to show what would happen if Sandy was not able to phase, and the ridge out west was not as strong, and a progressive pattern would just let the storm escape out to sea. The scary part is, over the past couple days, the model has begun to recognize all the players on the field. This is why a move towards the EURO solution is troublesome because now it really enforces the idea this can happen. So, todays midday run of the GFS model has brought the storm back to effecting the east coast, and actually makes landfall in Maine. So, we can see it is recognizing the players, and adjusting accordingly. I believe it will continue to do this and move towards the EURO. 

When a model runs, it is made up of a number of subsets that take into account a number of different variables. These ensemble runs make up the operational run. the operational run is kind of a medium of all the ensemble members of the model. Well, whats interesting is, over the past few days, we had a large majority of the ensemble members taking the track well off shore and out to sea. Over the past few days, many of the ensemble members have began to switch over to a more coastal track. Each run, the more members went further west to where we are now. Even as this operational run of the GFS took Sandy to Maine, many of the ensemble members are continuing to show a more westward track. For this reason, I am not going to be shocked to again think that this will move even further west.

So, bottom line, models are really starting to show the real potential here with a devastating storm that is taking aim on the east coast. There will be plenty more updates to come. Please continue to monitor the National Weather Service for further updates. i will also be passing all those along and then some on both my twitter (@townerswxpage) and on my facebook page (Towners Weather PAGE). Please share with friends and let them know. I try and keep updates throughout the day and let you know things as soon as I do. 

Halloween / Sandy Update

Ok, so some recap here for the morning. We have Tropical Storm Sandy south of Jamaica. Sandy is currently packing 45 mph sustained winds.  Sandy is probed to become a Hurricane Wednesday Night into Thursday, before making landfall in Jamaica. Sandy is entering into very favorable conditions for strengthening. here is the morning update from the National Hurricane Center:

So, from here, Sandy will move across Jamaica, Cuba and then through the Bahamas. From there is when we will really have to start watching what happens. I explained the first part of the puzzle yesterday was solved when Sandy was born. We will now have to monitor weather modeling. Some of the things I will be looking at is the Gulf of Alaska. Here is a key feature that will determine, ultimately, if Sandy will be able to head up the coast or if she moves off shore. If we can get this disturbance to be on the stronger side, it will create a ridge in the west, which means a trough in the east which will allow Sandy to move up the coast and phase with the Arctic jet. If the disturbance in the GOA is weaker, it will keep the ridge more progressive and flat, essentially allowing Sandy to move off shore and threaten Bermuda. 

From there, assuming we can get a stronger impulse in the GOA, we will then have to take a look at blocking downstream which would prevent Sandy from escaping East and slow her down. From there, we would then have to see how she would interact with the Arctic and Polar jets as far as a phase could go. In any case, its going to be a wild ride. Euro model still showing a monster, indications of the GFS model maybe wavering a bit westward and the Canadian Model still showing a bomb. FYI too, just so you know what kind of system we are dealing with, the Euro model also drops 36" of SNOW in Western PA!!!! Not saying that is going to happen, but this has the potential to be a very dynamic and powerful storm. Here is the snow graphic from last nights' Euro model:

Halloween Update Midday 10/22/2012

The first part of the equation has been solved, we now have Tropical Depression 18. TD 18 is located south of Jamaica and will slowly move to the north.  This is poised to become a Tropical Storm, and would take on the name Sandy. This is the first of many pieces of a puzzle to potentially come together to bring us a rather potent storm.

TD 18 graphic:

Halloween Update

I started talking about a potential storm for next week last night. The evening run of the GFS was the first to show a further east solution, which it still has, but the EURO model has remained fairly consistent with its track. Here is the morning update. Euro still shows a major storm, and the GFS is out to sea.

Here is the midnight run of the EURO at 192hrs:

and 216 hrs:

one thing about this run, it shows a large storm, and really brings down some cold air all the way down to the Gulf States.

The GFS model, depicted here at 144 hrs has the storm, but then moves it East and out to sea:

more to come.

Trick Or Treat

Well, its a little early, but we have a storm to track. This morning, some weather models were hinting at a significant east coast storm towards the end of the month. Then, the midday runs had all the major models jumping on board, and surprisingly a strong agreement in track up to about 120 hours. The beginnings of this is a disturbance now, south of Jamaica. This storm has a high likelihood of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next couple days (tropical storm / hurricane). As this moves north, it is going to interact with the subtropical jet stream arctic jet and the polar jet streams setting up the potential for a significant to severe weather situation along the east coast ( a perfect storm? triple phaser?). Like i said, all models had some semblance of this at the midday run.

So, what does this all mean....well, obviously, the potential is there for a significant storm. We are days away and for now, we need to watch this and see how things unfold. The Euro model has this coming in around the 29th, while the GFS model has this around Halloween. This would take a immense amount of variables to come together to produce this. Anyways, keep your guard up, pay attention and follow me on facebook (Towners Weather Page) and twitter (@townerswxpage).

Here are variables and model runs:

Disturbance (number 1):

GFS Midday Run: 204 hours

EURO Model Run 180 hours

And for good measure, a snow map out to 384 hours on the GFS (includes this storm)

 More to come....

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

For areas along the Delaware River East and North of Philly.

Frontal Boundary Pushes East

A frontal boundary, which will bring in the coolest temps in months will make its way east today. As it pushes through, storms will develop along the boundary. Temperatures are around 80 degrees for the area and humidity is on the rise. Expect some storms this afternoon and evening which will bring heavy rains and winds. The SPC has placed our area in the slight risk for severe weather today:

Another Severe Weather Threat Today

A cold front is approaching from the west which will bring much less humidity and cooler temperatures tomorrow. Until then, our area, along with the entire east coast will be under the gun for severe weather. Tornado watches have already been issued for areas south of us and now, recently within the past 20 minutes, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for the entire state of NJ. Here is the latest:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch In Effect

For a large majority of the Northern Mid Atlantic. Just to our north, Tornado Watches are out. A potentially severe afternoon is shaping up across the entire Mid Atlantic and North East. Numerous tornadoes reported today from Buffalo to NYC. This will continue as a powerful cold front pushes eastward. Here is the latest for our area:

SEL6
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 636
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
          DELAWARE
          MUCH OF MARYLAND
          NEW JERSEY
          EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
          NORTHERN VIRGINIA
          THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL
   1000 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
   NORTHWEST OF ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
   WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUM.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
   WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635...
   
   DISCUSSION...FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS
   AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE AREA OF GREATER SURFACE
   HEATING/INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PA/MD/VA.  INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL
   FLOW WITH AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKEWISE CONTRIBUTE TO
   AN INCREASING RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 26040.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

Severe Weather Update 09/08/2012

Little changes from yesterdays discussion as things are moving towards a potential severe wether day over NJ and into the NE. A frontal boundary is going to be pushing through bringing much more fall like temperatures, and lower humidity. In all likeliness, we may even be able to turn the AC units off tomorrow.

Between now and tomorrow though stands a better than good chance of severe weather. the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed our area under a moderate risk. This severe weather outbreak also does pose a risk for tornado development, which has been hinted at by the SPC. Watches (severe thunderstorm and tornado) will be hoisted from west to east beginning pretty soon (already a 95% chance for C PA). As the front moves east, the watches will be extended. Any storms that develop prior to the frontal boundary and after some daytime heating will have the best chances for producing tornadoes. As the front passes, the biggest threat I think will be straight line winds and lightening.

For now, keep in your mind that severe weather IS expected this afternoon and keep an eye to the sky. Here are some graphics from the SPC for todays outbreak:

Severe Weather Threat Growing for 9/8/2012

Indications for a period of strong to severe weather are showing up for tomorrow. A cold front is poised to move through the area, and current thinking is that a squall line of potentially severe thunderstorms will develop, and move across our area. These storms will have the potential to cause some damage. While the rest of the day looks like a fairly nice weather day, keep an eye to the sky. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area under a Moderate outlook for tomorrow (pretty safe bet for storms).

as always follow me on twitter: @townerswxpage and on facebook: Towners Weather Page

Yesterdays Tornado Confirmed In Mt Ephraim, NJ

National Weather Services crews surveyed the Mt Ephraim area this morning and determined it was in fact an EF0 tornado that struck Mt. Ephraim.

MOUNT EPHRAIM, N.J. — The National Weather Service says a tornado touched down in southern New Jersey, the first confirmed one in the state in more than a year.

Meteorologist Mitchell Gaines says it was an F-0 twister — the lowest classification.

It touched down at 6:31 p.m. Tuesday in the Philadelphia suburb of Mount Ephraim.

It traveled about on the ground for about 120 yards, cutting a path up to 75 feet wide with winds topping out at 70 mph.

It was enough to knock down one large tree and down several limbs, causing roof damage to some homes in the area.

The last confirmed tornado in New Jersey was in Millstone on Aug. 9, 2011.

Credit: AP

He's Back!

Well, sort of. Interesting developments with Isaac. His remnants have made it back to the Gulf Coast and could potentially redevelop into a depression. Noted here on the latest discussion by the NHC. Isaac remnants is in the yellow area with the 20% chance of development. Will have to be watched. The other dorm out there is Leslie who will be affecting Bermuda this weekend but will stay away from the majority of the east coast.

Tornado Warning- Cherry Hill area

Below is a velocity scan of the warned storm. Radar is picking up rotation (red area in between the greens) around the Cherry Hill Mall. This storm is moving NE

Isaac Remnants To Affect The Area

Finally the remnants of Isaac will move into the area bringing with it, extremely heavy rains and thunderstorms. The National Weather Service has posted flood watches for the majority of counties along the Delaware River. 2-4" of rain is expected and under the most intense bands, we could be looking at 1-2" per hour. in addition, thunderstorms can add dangerous lightening. There was also even a report of a tornado in Delaware yesterday.

Reminder to never drive through flooded roads. Keep and eye to the sky and prepare for any flooding to take place especially in the more intense bands.

8/27 2pm Isaac Update

We now have Hurricane Isaac. For the longest time, he has been on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and today around noon he finally took the step. Regardless, Isaac will be a dangerous storm with a extended period of dangerous weather. Storm conditions are already causing flooding in numerous parts of The central gulf coastal areas. The storm surge has pushed water over a number of barriers already and the continuation of the surge will bring more of the same. Also, rains will be extremely heavy in the central gulf ranging from 12-18" in some locations. Couple both those issues with an extended period of extreme weather and we have a giant storm with a major impact. More to come

For tweets and other info, feel free to follow my twitter account @townerswxpage and my Facebook page Towners Weather Page

8/27 Tropical Storm Isaac Update

Isaac is still a tropical storm as of 5pm. Although it is a tropical storm as of now, I think this all changes big time tonight. I think by 8pm we will see Hurricane Isaac. Also, as of 5pm the NHC is projecting a category 2 hurricane to make landfall. Landfall is again projected just sw of New Orleans, which will bring the most significant storm surge into New Orleans. Also, rains will bring upwards of 15-20" of rain to the area. Buckle up, the roller coaster is moving!

8/26 11pm Isaac Update

Well, the westward trend on the models may not be over yet. There are a number of models that take  Isaac just west of New Orleans. That being said, if that occurs, it may actually be worse for the Crescent City. See, the storm surge is strongest on the right front area of the storm, which would place New Orleans in the track for the brunt of the storm surge. More to come tomorrow, just wanted to give a quick update. Isaac really looks like it is getting its act together, and the winds are up to 65mph. Once Isaac hits 74mph, he will be a hurricane. This should occur at some point during the day tomorrow.

Other Models: