Here We Go....

Sorry for the late post. Well, We have before us, our first taste of winter. I am fairly confident snow will fall. Really, the only issue I have is temperatures. We have temperatures now in the mid to upper 30's. What we will have to watch is the dew points. Right now, dew points are in the mid 20's. What we need to watch is as the precipitation moves in, the dew point and the physical temperature will adjust towards each other. This is called evaporational cooling and basically saturates the atmosphere at the expense of lower temperatures. So, We will see how low the temperatures can go. Also, we have a coastal storm, so air from over the ocean will be entrained into the system which at this time of year is warm. How far west does this air make it? There is still another way to overcome marginal temperatures. This is called mesoscale banding. Basically, this is when an intese heavy band of snow develops and moves over an area. These are usually detected on the radar view as brighter colors. When snow falls heavy, it will accumulate at any tmeperature (it will also usually melt faster as well if temperatures remain). Still a lot of questions.

As of now, the radar is looking very healthy. This is moving westward, onshore

many of those "bands" have already develop, so this is a major plus for those that want snow.

I think that region wide, we can  see anywhere from 2-4" The models have really ben showing the Philly area getting the brunt, but really it will be all dependent on where those bands set up. Those are all nowcast issues and will have to be determined via the radar. But I like 2-4" 2" being areas where banding does not set up, and 6" if you can land under the most persistent bands, you can get to 4" If you are under a band for a while, 6" is not out of the question. Shore areas, I think you will primarily be rain on this storm.

In addition, watch out for the winds. The winds will be whipping around and any of the fragile power lines will again begin to fall. In addition, this will be a heavy wet snow and will plaster trees that still have leaves on them and cause limbs to come down.

So, look for rains to start, and then transition over to snow quickly. It will snow most of the afternoon and into tonight before tapering off early tomorrow morning.

I will be updating twitter (@townerswxpage) and my Facebook page (Towner's Weather PAGE) with the latest and where some of those bands set up.

Stay Safe!