Hopefully this finds you having already voted today. In addition, lets start with some good news. After this storm pushes through, we are going to be looking pretty with temperatures in the upper 50's and 60's. We should have these temps for atleast a few days. This will really help with the clean up and rebuilding down da shore.
Now, the bad news. What was excellent news this morning, has now transitioned into a mess. Models were all showing a storm weaker, and moving to the east this morning away from our area. I highlighted some ideas I had regarding what can happen. It is very dependent on this disturbance moving through the midwest. My idea is, if it can catch the low pressure of the SE coast, it would cause it to slow up and move closer to the coast. I also showed a link to the current water vapor loop. The disturbance was in Iowa this morning. I also did say it was moving rather drastically towards the low off the GA coast. Well, here is a link to the current water vapor loop. This disturbance has ALMOST caught the low.
WATER VAPOR LOOP
I think the models were able to clue in on that today, and hence the change further west. So, seeing the water vapor, I am all in for a closer to the coast track. Now, the next question that has to be answered.....HOW CLOSE? Well, this will be a huge factor for a number of reasons. As discussed earlier, the closer to the coast, the closer the strongest winds are. The closer to the coast, the more precipitation we receive (and the further west it goes). The closer to the coast, colder air stays further west and wraps in there and snow is limited to the western areas. Storm moves further east, precipitation stays closer to the coast, and the colder air wraps in giving us snow. See, a number of variables.
We have seen a number of these storms before in the area. We have seen complete misses, we have seen heavy rain change to heavy snow and creating accumulations and we have seen all snow events and all rain events. I think we get to experience it all with this one. My feeling, as of now is we have some rain move in during the early afternoon. Through the afternoon the rain will change over to snow, from west to east. I then believe it will probably snow for the majority of the overnight hours before tapering off in the early morning hours Thursday.
This is a super complex storm and there are a number of wheels in motion. I wouldnt be surprised with anything that happens tomorrow. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. More to come tonight where we can maybe even talk some accumulations!
Winter Weather Advisories are out, please heed the message....the first snow of the year is usually the most dangerous as people have not had to drive in those conditions for a while.
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