Halloween / Sandy Morning Update 10/25/2012

Wow, woke up this morning to hear that Sandy overnight strengthened to a extremely strong Cat 2 Hurricane. At the NHC 2am update, Sandy had sustained winds of 110mph. Thats 1mph short of being a Cat 3 hurricane. Once we are talking about a cat 3 or higher hurricane, it is classified as a MAJOR hurricane. I had read somewhere yesterday that two days ago, they gave Sandy about a 1% chance of reaching cat 3 status. As of 5am, her winds went down to 105mph sustained. But, she is now clearing Cuba and will be back over water. The next 24 hours will be telling. A major hurricane is quite a feat. In any case, here is the latest on Sandy:

A beaut:

Now, to the models. The Euro stays steadfast. Still shows a bomb making landfall in Deleware / South Jersey. This is the 8th run in a row of a fairly consistent landfall. Here is the model:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:

The NOGAPS gives a similar outcome although a little bit earlier:

Sunday Evening:

Monday Morning:

And the Canadian Model shows a similar track, but does not have the "phase" until it hits Long Island and then brings it back west across NYC (and this is Tuesday Morning):

Tuesday Evening:

 The GFS model continues to bounce around from its out to sea solution, to a landfall in Maine and moves back west across Northern New England. As of the morning run, it was showing a further west track (for this model) and brings Sandy up to Maine before a phase occurs and brings it back over land:

Wednesday Morning:

6hours later:

So, there still is some spread. What we do know is there is an immense amount of variables that are going into this system. There is a lot that can go wrong and the timing needs to be perfect. A delay here, or something is not as strong as modeled can play a big part in a different solution. I will also say though, the closer we get, the chances increase of accuracy. Also, the National Weather Service will be performing increased weather balloon launching for each model update starting today. This will aid in getting the most up to date upper atmosphere conditions to be inputted into model guidance. 

For Jersey (or any area really) the strongest part of a hurricane is the right front quadrant then the right lower quadrant. These areas have the highest storm surge, heaviest rain, strongest winds and also the area that produces most of the severe weather (tornadoes, hail). This would be the impact for Jersey with a EURO or NOGAPS hit. The Right lower quadrant is the second strongest part, followed by the left front quadrant (Canadian Model scenario) and then the left lower quadrant is typically the weakest. This is another aspect of the storm that will have to be followed. You can imagine if we have a storm surge of 10-15 feet of water moving up the Delaware Bay into the Delaware River. 

Anyways, more to come. Please stay tuned. 

I will be updating both my twitter account (@townerswxpage) and facebook (Towner's Weather PAGE)